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  Reply # 1014302 28-Mar-2014 08:01 Send private message

Oblivian:
joker97: estimated by "primary radar" whatever that thing is


Rotating radar tower sending radio waves with interrogation request and awaiting response.

As for the FL430, I think they threw that out the window as a bung calculation from doppler/estimation


Primary radar works on seeing a reflection of the signal it sends out, it's a pretty low tech system.

Secondary radar, which is predominately used today sends out a signal that triggers a transponder on the aircraft which sends back an encoded signal with aircraft specific information in response.




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  Reply # 1014363 28-Mar-2014 09:27 Send private message

Dratsab: It's not complicated at all and fits nicely with what I've said from the get go.

Motive? His world was crumbling around him.
Reasoning? He did not want the plane to be found. Ever. Most likely didn't know about the pings.

Plenty of people have killed themselves for far less than what he had going on in his life. Seems like a prime candidate for depression to me. Reasoning and logic go completely out the window when people have an episode and decide to check out - otherwise they wouldn't do it in the first place. Trying to overlay sane minded thought patterns after an event is a bit of a trap.

Edit: sent from phone so had to fix up some autocorrect errors - Swype seems to be becoming complete crap these days.


I'm sorry you are saying he is too insane to rationalize but has the presence of mind to fly a plane for 4 hours to ditch in the ocean so it wouldn't be found, even though it's very likely it HAS been found? Why does he want the plane not found? Insurance pay out? Chances of a pay out, 1 in a million if the insurance company even suspect it's pilot suicide. 

So many holes in the theory I recommend not submerging it in water :) 



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  Reply # 1014391 28-Mar-2014 09:52 Send private message

surfisup1000:
joker97: I agree with the comment about tracking penguin s. If they can track a penguin round the world there is no excuse for difficulty locating a black box eh


However, in my software engineering course we learnt a little about systems design. 

Tracking penguins - this is a non-life threatening application so minimal testing & design parameters required as the consequences of failure are negligible. 

Aircraft systems - vastly more important and frequent use application.  It is more costly to design , build, test and run such systems. 

I don't buy the argument that just because the $2 store can sell it ( or a penguin can use it) then it is fit for life-critical systems. 




would you rather have a location device that works 95.9% of the time or NONE as it currently is.
I wouldn't mind a blackbox location device that works 85% of the time!

on another note: maybe they should wrap the orangebox with a floatation box. it is as easy as strapping 5 or 6 coke bottles with duct tape to it surely. how complicated would an engineer want to make a bouy?




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  Reply # 1014395 28-Mar-2014 09:55 Send private message

joker97:
surfisup1000:
joker97: I agree with the comment about tracking penguin s. If they can track a penguin round the world there is no excuse for difficulty locating a black box eh


However, in my software engineering course we learnt a little about systems design. 

Tracking penguins - this is a non-life threatening application so minimal testing & design parameters required as the consequences of failure are negligible. 

Aircraft systems - vastly more important and frequent use application.  It is more costly to design , build, test and run such systems. 

I don't buy the argument that just because the $2 store can sell it ( or a penguin can use it) then it is fit for life-critical systems. 




would you rather have a location device that works 95.9% of the time or NONE as it currently is.
I wouldn't mind a blackbox location device that works 85% of the time!

on another note: maybe they should wrap the orangebox with a floatation box. it is as easy as strapping 5 or 6 coke bottles with duct tape to it surely. how complicated would an engineer want to make a bouy?


Well you say that, but if your loved ones were on a plane that went missing and the blackbox couldn't be found because the locator failed in one of the 15% I could imagine you taking a different approach to it, as you should rightly do so.

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  Reply # 1014397 28-Mar-2014 09:56 Send private message

as it is ... the chance of finding it is 0.05% correct?




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  Reply # 1014398 28-Mar-2014 09:56 Send private message

as it is ... the chance of finding it is 0.05% correct?

we are talking about redundancy with a separate location system. not a replacement of the current ping.




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  Reply # 1014401 28-Mar-2014 09:59 Send private message

joker97: as it is ... the chance of finding it is 0.05% correct?

we are talking about redundancy with a separate location system. not a replacement of the current ping.


I'd say chances are much much better than that. I'd say likeyhood of finding the location of the plane crash is now 90%, the stuff they are seeing on radar is pretty consistent with a crash, once they find the site and the fuselage, they should be able to get that box back, because it's not a given it's sunk 9000M deep.

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  Reply # 1014402 28-Mar-2014 10:00 Send private message

joker97:
surfisup1000:
joker97: I agree with the comment about tracking penguin s. If they can track a penguin round the world there is no excuse for difficulty locating a black box eh


However, in my software engineering course we learnt a little about systems design. 

Tracking penguins - this is a non-life threatening application so minimal testing & design parameters required as the consequences of failure are negligible. 

Aircraft systems - vastly more important and frequent use application.  It is more costly to design , build, test and run such systems. 

I don't buy the argument that just because the $2 store can sell it ( or a penguin can use it) then it is fit for life-critical systems. 




would you rather have a location device that works 95.9% of the time or NONE as it currently is.
I wouldn't mind a blackbox location device that works 85% of the time!

on another note: maybe they should wrap the orangebox with a floatation box. it is as easy as strapping 5 or 6 coke bottles with duct tape to it surely. how complicated would an engineer want to make a bouy?


A flotation device would not work. It would be like if you pre inflate your life vest in a plane. The water will rush in and the black box would become pinned inside the fuselage. It also has wires attached that would tether it to the plane anyway.




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  Reply # 1014561 28-Mar-2014 13:19 Send private message

networkn: I'm sorry you are saying he is too insane to rationalize but has the presence of mind to fly a plane for 4 hours to ditch in the ocean so it wouldn't be found, even though it's very likely it HAS been found?

No, I'm not saying anything of the sort. I'm saying trying to apply sane thinking to a suicidal persons reasoning is a bit of a folly.

People do things all the time they don't want discovered but get found out so what's your point with the last part?

networkn: Why does he want the plane not found? Insurance pay out? Chances of a pay out, 1 in a million if the insurance company even suspect it's pilot suicide.

Ask him.

networkn: So many holes in the theory I recommend not submerging it in water :) 

As I've said before, I'm happy to be proven wrong. I won't be holding my breath for it though.




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  Reply # 1014567 28-Mar-2014 13:29 Send private message

Crazy pilot is the theory that best fits the evidence.

Evidence is still somewhat questionable for now. Where does the 43k feet climb come from? There is no real sours for that yet I think. Debris? If you look in the sea there is tons of stuff floating around to find if you are looking. There is not a strong reason yet to believe anything at all is found. That said, I'm still going with the above for now ; )

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  Reply # 1014654 28-Mar-2014 15:11 Send private message

gzt: Crazy pilot is the theory that best fits the evidence.

Evidence is still somewhat questionable for now. Where does the 43k feet climb come from? There is no real sours for that yet I think. Debris? If you look in the sea there is tons of stuff floating around to find if you are looking. There is not a strong reason yet to believe anything at all is found. That said, I'm still going with the above for now ; )


Some have suggested the climb to altitude above regular service level was to starve a fire on board.





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  Reply # 1014657 28-Mar-2014 15:16 Send private message

DravidDavid:
gzt: Crazy pilot is the theory that best fits the evidence.

Evidence is still somewhat questionable for now. Where does the 43k feet climb come from? There is no real sours for that yet I think. Debris? If you look in the sea there is tons of stuff floating around to find if you are looking. There is not a strong reason yet to believe anything at all is found. That said, I'm still going with the above for now ; )


Some have suggested the climb to altitude above regular service level was to starve a fire on board.


Which is insane. The chances it would work are slim to start with, you would always (according to the engineering for AirNZ and Pilots themselves posting a response to this claim) go down not up.


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  Reply # 1014661 28-Mar-2014 15:26 Send private message

networkn:
DravidDavid:
gzt: Crazy pilot is the theory that best fits the evidence.

Evidence is still somewhat questionable for now. Where does the 43k feet climb come from? There is no real sours for that yet I think. Debris? If you look in the sea there is tons of stuff floating around to find if you are looking. There is not a strong reason yet to believe anything at all is found. That said, I'm still going with the above for now ; )


Some have suggested the climb to altitude above regular service level was to starve a fire on board.


Which is insane. The chances it would work are slim to start with, you would always (according to the engineering for AirNZ and Pilots themselves posting a response to this claim) go down not up.


I don't know the complexities behind what it would take/why it is insane...But fire needs oxygen, which is lacking high up...Probably what sparked the theory.

The alternative "to knock out the passengers" theory is just as silly. EDIT: I guess the plane could have been put in to a climb to prevent passengers/crew reaching the cockpit...But the fact it flew for six or seven hours means the passengers would have had plenty of time if they wanted to.

It could have been autopilot bugging out, taking the plane to a stupid height, stalling and correcting itself again.  Who knows.





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  Reply # 1014679 28-Mar-2014 15:42 Send private message

So now the latest "credible information" is that it was flying faster and burning more fuel than previously estimated, so may not have made it as far South as the present search area.
Shifting the search area 1100km NE doesn't seem to indicate much confidence that "stuff" spotted by satellite is actually plane wreckage.
The bits and pieces observed from satellite might be consistent with plane wreckage, but they're also probably consistent with the zillions of tonnes of garbage floating around the oceans and being concentrated into areas by the Indian Ocean Gyre.  There's probably crap still floating around there swept off the coast by the Tsunami a decade ago.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9880127/New-credible-lead-shifts-MH370-search-area

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  Reply # 1014682 28-Mar-2014 15:47 Send private message

They also think that some of the satellite photos could be showing things like pods of whales. I wonder why the resolution is so crap. Compared to google earth images of land, the satellite images are terrible quality.

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