The Minister should accept the recommendation
Ask any journalist how to get to the source of any story and they'll tell you: follow the money.
So, the options before the Minister of Communications are:
1: Accept the recommendation of the Commerce Commission.
2: Reject the recommendation of the Commerce Commission.
3: Send back the recommendation for more working.
The recommendation the Commission has put forward is to accept the Undertakings offered by Telecom and Vodafone. Unusually there is a comment from one of the three Commissioners objecting to the result, but that’s neither here nor there: the recommendation is to accept the offers.
Why has the Commission done that? It’s simple: follow the money.
Here are the alternatives – Undertakings kicking in October 1 this year delivering savings to the industry (more on that below) immediately of around 40% versus sending the report back for more work and hopefully getting a changed recommendation to regulate, coming into effect in about 18 months to two years’ time.
The difference between savings in the two options is negligible. Either you get savings from October or you get the old price for longer and potentially savings after both a reconsideration period (last one took eight months) and a full STD process (where the Commission and the industry gather to talk about the true cost of telecommunications etc which should last about a year).
So the Minister has a relatively simple job ahead of him. He has to look at the certain savings delivered by the Undertakings versus the possible savings delivered should regulation be recommended by the Commission after reconsideration and, given there’s very little difference, it comes down to a timing issue. Should he go in October or wait for regulation that MAY deliver a better deal in a couple of years’ time.
The Undertakings move TXT termination rates to zero (hybrid bill-and-keep) and voice termination rates from 15c/minute (on a minute plus second basis) to 6c/minute (second plus second basis).
The cost to Vodafone is not trivial – we’re expecting an $80m annual revenue hit in each of the undertaking’s 5 years. But that’s better than an uncertain outcome under regulation where the entire drop could take place overnight. At least this way we get to manage the descent and not have to deploy some of the more unpleasant things that have been discussed in this blog.
Our view is clear – the Minister should accept the Undertakings so we can get on. They’re a win for the Commission (it’s got us down into the ballpark of price it likes). They’re a win for the Minister (he gets to deliver on the promise of greater scrutiny) and they’re a win for the consumers advocates who pushed hard for regulation in this space. It’s quasi-regulation, but it’s a regulated outcome that will deliver more certain and earlier benefits for consumers.
Other related posts:
Of termination rates and regulatory holidays
Minister recommends regulation - Vodafone's response
Vodafone's response to the Commerce Commission's report
Comment by Simon, on 9-Mar-2010 21:15 , user id: )
According to research due to the nature of system used by carriers to send text messages between phones, texting does not cost the carriers any money at all. This is because SMS messages are designed to fit inside the bandwidth alloted to the "control channel", which is used to establish communication between the mobile phone and the cellular tower. This channel is continuously active, so the messages are piggybacking on the control signal, for free.
If this is so then why charge a termination fee OR retail fee for text messages? There was an article on here about how text spam would cost the recieving carrier but it shouldn't as the service is costing them nothing anyway.
Just my thoughts..
Comment by Chris, on 9-Mar-2010 21:17 , user id: )
I hope he accepts it.. and then you can get on with business at hand
Comment by Chris, on 9-Mar-2010 21:23 , user id: )
Oh and by the way I want you people to allow my Free Mins to not roll over each month if you start charging me for in coming calls/texts.. Thats what happens from month to month in the usa, they get to keep there mins if they don't use them
Comment by Chris, on 10-Mar-2010 09:22 , user id: )
So I take it they get text spam in the US as the use the BAK system??
Comment by jointhedebate, on 10-Mar-2010 09:56 , user id: )
Not sure about the US market - they have the double peculiarity of charging to receive calls which makes customers reluctant to give out their number so that will skew TXT messaging.
But in India, China and in France (the only country to regulate TXT messages) all are reporting massive increases in the number of TXT spam being sent.
The problem is it only takes a few dozen spam a day to get through to your inbox to make the whole thing break down. There are plenty of customers who receive emergency TXT alerts or similar who would be impacted by any TXT spam.
Comment by Chris, on 10-Mar-2010 10:24 , user id: )
are you saying some networks disable txt because it puts to much load on the network?
And we can all thank Two Degrees Mobile Limited for this
Comment by Chris, on 10-Mar-2010 11:13 , user id: )
@Paul one last thing, Your saying they don't readily give out their numbers, Do you mean to there mates?? or to short code services?
Because if it's the latter then the spamming wont be an issue for me as I don't use short code services in fear of spamming,
Comment by Chris, on 10-Mar-2010 11:13 , user id: )
@Paul one last thing, Your saying they don't readily give out their numbers, Do you mean to there mates?? or to short code services?
Because if it's the latter then the spamming wont be an issue for me as I don't use short code services in fear of spamming.
Comment by Chris, on 10-Mar-2010 13:31 , user id: )
Jusus, I wouldn't want to pay for people to call me, cold callers and stuff. However Paul, It cost them over there to receive calls/texts but can they place calls for free????
Because if that's the case then it should not be to bad
Comment by DeroyBoy, on 10-Mar-2010 17:08 , user id: 47997)
While it is true that you pay to receive calls in the US the price per minute is a fraction of what it is here.
Comment by ajw, on 10-Mar-2010 17:08 , user id: 39848)
jointhedebate,
US market penetration has topped out at around 80% while everywhere else in the world it's growing past the 100% mark.
Paul are you sure about that, the USA is one of the highest users of cell phones in the world. Check out the chart via this link.
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=7933596&story_id=15546495
Comment by ajw, on 10-Mar-2010 17:35 , user id: 39848)
@DeroyBoy, I had a look at the AT&T prepay rates and you pay a lot more than you do here to make a call and just as much again to receive - even for TXT messages...
Check out this link to prepay pricing in the USA. Looks a lot cheaper in the US compared to here in NZ.
http://www.mycricket.com/paygo/prepaid-cell-phone-plans
Comment by Chris, on 10-Mar-2010 18:53 , user id: )
@Paul, A least in the US they get to keep their free mins and they don't expire after a month!!!
You buggers don't do that,
Comment by DeroyBoy, on 10-Mar-2010 19:39 , user id: 47997)
True for prepay but try getting 1000 minutes for $NZ57 on a plan here.
Comment by simon14, on 10-Mar-2010 23:44 , user id: 8584)
This plan is available on AT&T:
450 ANYTIME nationwide minutes
5,000 nights and weekend nationwide minutes
Unlimited ANYTIME Mobile to Mobile nationwide minutes
Includes rollover, so if you don't use all your minutes up, they rollover to the next month.
All this for US$39.95 per month.
OR you can go for their completely unlimited calling to anynetwork, anytime for $69.95.
We in NZ are a longgggggg way off....
http://www.wireless.att.com/cell-phone-service/cell-phone-plans/individual-cell-phone-plans.jsp?wtSlotClick=1-002SR2!CIWM01-4-1&rel=nofollow&_requestid=235598
Comment by Chris, on 11-Mar-2010 11:19 , user id: )
Who cares about Prepay, They Get cheap calling when they are on postpay in the US
Comment by Chris, on 11-Mar-2010 12:00 , user id: )
Put it this way, IF the com com decide to Zero Rate MTR and ya'all decide to charge for incoming calls and texts and charge heaps for that then you will find people wont use there phones at all and they might even bin them.
Did you tell the com com that you will charge customers to receive calls if they Zero rate MTR??
You will loose out in the end
Comment by Chris, on 11-Mar-2010 12:16 , user id: )
I spoke with the bad guys at Two Degrees Mobile Limited and they told me that charging for incoming calls and texts would have to be done ONLY by the company(s)with the most to loose.
Comment by Chris, on 11-Mar-2010 12:54 , user id: )
@paul When are we to here back from the minster? wasn't he due to decide on what to do about MTR 3 days ago?
Comment by simon14, on 11-Mar-2010 13:21 , user id: 8584)
If there was no MTR on calls and txt and Vodafone started to charging for incoming calls/txt and the other two telcos didn't, or at least 2degrees didn't, then either Vodafone would be forced to stop charging for incomign calls or everyone will move over to 2degrees.
So even if mtr's were at 0, they wouldn't charge you for your incoming calls... but it sure is a good old scare tactic to get people on their side and it works really well :)
Comment by ajw, on 11-Mar-2010 17:48 , user id: 39848)
Comment by Chris, on 11-MAR-2010 12:00
Bill and Keep in the USA and they still use their phones on a regular basis as can be seen by previous posters.
Comment by Chris, on 12-Mar-2010 09:30 , user id: )
@Simon wanna bet?? Oh they will charge for incoming calls, They do it in the us and I would bet they will do it over here if they have to, I think it's outrages.
Comment by Chris, on 12-Mar-2010 09:41 , user id: )
@Simon If Vodafone NZ start charging for incoming calls and text and the other lot don't Voda will continue as Vodafone clam that they set the trend and the others follow, That's why their Sim's are still 29.95 casual texts still 20cents and their prepay call rate is still 89cents a min, nothing will change.
Comment by sbiddle, on 12-Mar-2010 12:16 , user id: 1387)
People need to remember that a move to BAK for voice was totally outside the scope of the MTAS investigation. 2degrees want BAK for voice because it would benefit them significsntly but it needs to be remembered that NO country has made a move from CPP to BAK for mobile since the intoduction of mobile services and kept BAK. The Commerce Commission made it very clear that BAK was not being considered for NZ at present.
France trialled BAK for mobile to mobile and ended up scrapping it because the system fell apart when mobile operators strarted routing fixed line traffic via their networks.
People need to realise that there is no relationship between MTR costs and retail costs for phonecalls. Many of us are paying too much for calls but MTR costs are not the issue.
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Comment by DeroyBoy, on 9-Mar-2010 20:08 , user id: 47997)
Your revenue will take a hit but so will your expenses in the reduced payment to telecom so can't see you being much worse off.