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Dingbatt
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  #2249261 31-May-2019 18:18
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There is another 3 cents a litre going on petrol and increased RUCs from 1 July. To me, painful as it is, that is the way to provide a source of funds for EV incentives. At the same time it encourages people to use more efficient fossil fuel vehicles or public transport.
It’s a moot point anyway because there aren’t any new EVs available. So the Government could have virtue signalled with incentives, knowing full well it won’t cost much initially (certainly not x 3 million).

I wish people would stop holding up Norway as a beacon of EV goodness. Because they get their revenue from oil and gas sales, it is akin to Pharmac selling Heroin, Methamphetamine and Cocaine to fund cancer drugs locally.




“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


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tdgeek
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  #2249262 31-May-2019 18:21
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jjnz1:
NzBeagle:

 

jjnz1: Tesla model 3 now available in NZ, from $925 per month, or $74,960 Inc gst. Now time for those government coffers to open up!

 

 

 

Great pricing, even without subsidies. Can't wait to see these on the road.

 



I think so.

Tesla reckon you'll save $137 per month on fuel costs too. 460km range (base model) is fantastic too!

 

Thats the feature we want, and bugger all maintenance. Thats the motivation. 


tdgeek
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  #2249268 31-May-2019 18:35
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Obraik:

 

This has been discussed a few times now, but the point of a subsidy is to swing the decision of those buying a car from buying an ICE. Currently, an EV has an R&D premium on its cost, so when you pay $60-70k for an EV you're getting the features and quality of around a $40-50k ICE vehicle, or sometimes less. If you're buying a car and there's that much sticker price difference most would go for the less for more option.  The idea is to bring the equivalent EV down to the budget point of that buyer.  No fuel bills and lack of maintenance are perks but sticker price is always going to be the biggest thing that will sway a buyer.

 

 

Ok, I give up. :-) No fuel bills and lack of maintenance are perks? 30c per litre equivalent is just a perk? Maybe I can get a $10k subsidy to buy  new ICE and I forego that perk? 

 

Seriously, Paying a bit more where you can save a HUGE amount of fuel cost, and bugger all maintenance over many years, makes that $10k extra a great investment. 

 

Yet you feel that we should be paid to get into that investment?

 

The benefits of cost savings of an EV is why there are LONG waiting lists




Dingbatt
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  #2249274 31-May-2019 18:46
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tdgeek:

The benefits of cost savings of an EV is why there are LONG waiting lists



Nope. I believe people want EVs for tech, aesthetic or green reasons, because at the moment the price difference between EVs and equivalently equipped ICEs (including hybrids) will not be recouped through fuel and maintenance savings. Particularly when BEVs start paying RUCs.




“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


frednz

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  #2249371 31-May-2019 21:31
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Dingbatt: There is another 3 cents a litre going on petrol and increased RUCs from 1 July. To me, painful as it is, that is the way to provide a source of funds for EV incentives. At the same time it encourages people to use more efficient fossil fuel vehicles or public transport.
It’s a moot point anyway because there aren’t any new EVs available. So the Government could have virtue signalled with incentives, knowing full well it won’t cost much initially (certainly not x 3 million).

I wish people would stop holding up Norway as a beacon of EV goodness. Because they get their revenue from oil and gas sales, it is akin to Pharmac selling Heroin, Methamphetamine and Cocaine to fund cancer drugs locally.

 

But, despite the revenue Norway earns from oil and gas sales, they have shown the world that, given sufficient incentives, you can have a significant proportion of electric vehicles on the roads. I guess Norway doesn't have to put that much money into EV incentives, but it chooses to, which is a good example for NZ and the rest of the world.

 

Anyway, NZ earns a fair proportion of its revenue from farming activities, and this produces a lot of greenhouse gases, so some of this revenue could be channelled into EV incentives, but as yet, it's not a high priority for the Government. So, in effect, we are relying on countries like Norway to make up for our increasing emissions. The NZ Government is still, in effect, sending a message to car buyers that it's quite OK to buy ICE vehicles as they are still pouring into the country in large numbers.

 

And although none of us like the effects of using oil and gas etc, you have to admit that, without these products, the world would grind to a halt as insufficient preparation has yet been done to do without them.


frednz

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  #2249373 31-May-2019 21:44
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Obraik:

 

This has been discussed a few times now, but the point of a subsidy is to swing the decision of those buying a car from buying an ICE. Currently, an EV has an R&D premium on its cost, so when you pay $60-70k for an EV you're getting the features and quality of around a $40-50k ICE vehicle, or sometimes less. If you're buying a car and there's that much sticker price difference most would go for the less for more option.  The idea is to bring the equivalent EV down to the budget point of that buyer.  No fuel bills and lack of maintenance are perks but sticker price is always going to be the biggest thing that will sway a buyer.

 

 

Agreed, and a good example to illustrate this point is the price of the Hyundai Kona top petrol car ($42,000) vs the Elite Kona electric car ($84,000).

 

So, you not only have to pay double the amount of the petrol Kona to get the EV, but you also have to be quite wealthy to buy the Elite Kona.

 

So, why buy the Elite Kona, wouldn't most Kiwis go for the petrol version - in other words, is it really worth paying $42,000 more to buy the equivalent EV?

 

And even though the EV Kona has a range of around 460km, the range of the petrol Kona is considerably greater and it's also an AWD vehicle, which the EV version isn't!


tdgeek
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  #2249511 1-Jun-2019 11:18
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Dingbatt:
tdgeek:

 

The benefits of cost savings of an EV is why there are LONG waiting lists

 



Nope. I believe people want EVs for tech, aesthetic or green reasons, because at the moment the price difference between EVs and equivalently equipped ICEs (including hybrids) will not be recouped through fuel and maintenance savings. Particularly when BEVs start paying RUCs.

 

I disagree. Allow $2000 fuel per year, remove up to $1000 servicing. thats $3000 per year. I';ll offset battery accrual for infrequent but expensive repairs on the ICE. If the $75k Tesla on the other thread was an ICE what's that worth, given its new, SUV-ish, range is fine, lots of smarts. You'd often end up with a boring, ugly base EV for the same price as an upmarket ICE. Tesla 3 seems a lot of car.




Dingbatt
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  #2249530 1-Jun-2019 12:32
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Those prices only apply to a teutonic status symbol like an Audi or BMW. My top of the line Camry Hybrid costs $300/year to service and uses <$2000 worth of petrol (at $2.50/l) in a year for 15000km of driving. Remembering that electricity isn’t free, and will be more expensive as demand increases, and that RUCs are coming for EVs, then your $3000/year is a bit steep.
Even at $3000/year, the additional $30000-40000 you stump up for an equivalent EV is a very long payback period, and that excludes how fast EVs will depreciate, since the market is too new to really know.

I’m not saying there aren’t savings to be made by going EV. But you’re a mug if that’s the only reason you’re shelling out the extra cash.




“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


tdgeek
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  #2249535 1-Jun-2019 13:19
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Dingbatt: Those prices only apply to a teutonic status symbol like an Audi or BMW. My top of the line Camry Hybrid costs $300/year to service and uses <$2000 worth of petrol (at $2.50/l) in a year for 15000km of driving. Remembering that electricity isn’t free, and will be more expensive as demand increases, and that RUCs are coming for EVs, then your $3000/year is a bit steep.
Even at $3000/year, the additional $30000-40000 you stump up for an equivalent EV is a very long payback period, and that excludes how fast EVs will depreciate, since the market is too new to really know.

I’m not saying there aren’t savings to be made by going EV. But you’re a mug if that’s the only reason you’re shelling out the extra cash.

 

They regard 30c per litre as the equivalent. I assume that's off peak, unsure on that. $2-30 a litre right now, so up to $2 per litre saving. Yes RUC is the future cost.

 

You mention a $40000 premium.  Would an ICE Tesla 3 be only $35000?

 

If two identical cars, an ICE and an EV version, were $40,000 apart, then clearly no deal. Ever.


Dingbatt
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  #2249602 1-Jun-2019 15:56
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tdgeek:
You mention a $40000 premium.  Would an ICE Tesla 3 be only $35000?



If two identical cars, an ICE and an EV version, were $40,000 apart, then clearly no deal. Ever.



You mean like the Kona?
Bit more difficult with the Niro as there are only hybrids (plain and plugin) to compare. But still $40K there.
Tesla is a bit more difficult because there is no ICE to compare it with.

And to be exact I said 30-40K so an ICE Tesla would probably be no more than $45K for the lowest available spec you quote.




“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


tdgeek
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  #2249607 1-Jun-2019 16:11
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Dingbatt:
tdgeek:
You mention a $40000 premium.  Would an ICE Tesla 3 be only $35000?

 

If two identical cars, an ICE and an EV version, were $40,000 apart, then clearly no deal. Ever.

 



You mean like the Kona?
Bit more difficult with the Niro as there are only hybrids (plain and plugin) to compare. But still $40K there.
Tesla is a bit more difficult because there is no ICE to compare it with.

And to be exact I said 30-40K so an ICE Tesla would probably be no more than $45K for the lowest available spec you quote.

 

No, sorry, I mean a Tesla 3 ICE vs EV price comparison. If there was an ICE Tesla. My point being, the Tesla 3 (as one example) is $75k. What do I feel it would be worth if there was an ICE version?  40k cheaper? 20k? 10k?

 

I really can't see how Lona or Niro (I follow your examples) can be such a huge price difference. An EV must be much cheaper to make. Batteries seem to be bugger all :-) as there was a car mentioned the other day (maybe here cant recall) that the model with the extra kW was not a lot more, it was surprising. Maybe Marketing is managing demand there, pushing buyers to the bigger model maybe. Off course then is R+D in play, so the selling price is artificial compared to manufacturing price. 


Dingbatt
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  #2249609 1-Jun-2019 16:15
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$500-700 per kWh for batteries.




“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


tdgeek
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  #2249611 1-Jun-2019 16:20
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Here it is

 

The EX 289 retails for $67,990 + ORC and the EX 455 for $73,990 + ORC.

 

39kW to 64kW for an extra $6000


Delphinus
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  #2249613 1-Jun-2019 16:22
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tdgeek:

 

They regard 30c per litre as the equivalent. I assume that's off peak, unsure on that. $2-30 a litre right now, so up to $2 per litre saving. Yes RUC is the future cost.

 

 

Not sure where you found 30c/litre. 

 

Typical petrol car, 7L/100km = $16.10 per 100km = $2415 per 15,000km.

 

Kona EV, 19.1 kWh/100km = $4.54 per 100km = $682. You might get close to 30c per L equivalent if you only charged at home on a cheap night rate of 11c/kWh. Only traveled at city speeds. Never used fast charger etc. 

 

 

 

Assuming $0.2381/kWh. 

 

tdgeek:

 

If two identical cars, an ICE and an EV version, were $40,000 apart, then clearly no deal. Ever.

 

 

$43k diference for Kona Elite: https://www.aa.co.nz/cars/buying-a-car/car-buying-guide/new-cars/new-car-prices/hyundai/

 

$34k for Kia. https://www.aa.co.nz/cars/buying-a-car/car-buying-guide/new-cars/new-car-prices/kia-new-car-prices/

 

 

 

Servicing is going to be similar pricing from a dealer on a new car. Let's assume you save $2000 per year, that's 17-21 years to pay back the diference in purchase cost? Yeah nah. 


ockel
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  #2249618 1-Jun-2019 16:57
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Delphinus:

 

tdgeek:

 

They regard 30c per litre as the equivalent. I assume that's off peak, unsure on that. $2-30 a litre right now, so up to $2 per litre saving. Yes RUC is the future cost.

 

 

Not sure where you found 30c/litre. 

 

Typical petrol car, 7L/100km = $16.10 per 100km = $2415 per 15,000km.

 

Kona EV, 19.1 kWh/100km = $4.54 per 100km = $682. You might get close to 30c per L equivalent if you only charged at home on a cheap night rate of 11c/kWh. Only traveled at city speeds. Never used fast charger etc. 

 

 

 

Assuming $0.2381/kWh. 

 

tdgeek:

 

If two identical cars, an ICE and an EV version, were $40,000 apart, then clearly no deal. Ever.

 

 

$43k diference for Kona Elite: https://www.aa.co.nz/cars/buying-a-car/car-buying-guide/new-cars/new-car-prices/hyundai/

 

$34k for Kia. https://www.aa.co.nz/cars/buying-a-car/car-buying-guide/new-cars/new-car-prices/kia-new-car-prices/

 

 

 

Servicing is going to be similar pricing from a dealer on a new car. Let's assume you save $2000 per year, that's 17-21 years to pay back the diference in purchase cost? Yeah nah. 

 

 

 

 

Why not use the EECA Vehicle comparator?  https://www.eecabusiness.govt.nz/tools/vehicle-total-cost-of-ownership-tool/

 

Its designed for exactly this sort of discussion - and you can compare within a manufacturer (like the Hyundai and Kia).  However it is GIGO.  You'll need to adjust the input values for updated fuel and electricity prices. 

 

Its highly sensitive to finance costs (so its best to zero the interest price so its all about cash costs).  And resale values - the assumptions on these are quite ropey on some vehicles (IMHO these should be sourced from RedBook).  

 

 


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