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tdgeek
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  #2308039 29-Aug-2019 19:07
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ockel:

 

Obraik:

 

ockel:

 

From Stuff: https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/115386338/julie-anne-genter-backs-car-feebate-emissions-scheme-despite-treasury-criticism

 

 

 

"Treasury officials have rubbished the government's "feebate" scheme, warning it will have an infinitesimal effect on carbon emissions over two decades.

 

But Associate Transport Minister Julie Anne Genter says Treasury is "wrong" and its approach is "totally untenable"."

 

 

 

Recall that Treasury was criticised by Twyford that its analysis of Kiwibuild was wrong.  Now another Minister wants to second guess the smart people about effects of policy.

 

 

 

 

No where in that article does it actually mention how Treasury came to that conclusion.  Maybe those in Treasury should get in touch with their counterparts in countries in other parts of the world and let them know that they should scrap their incentives too.

 

 

No it doesnt.  And you note that the media had to use the OIA to obtain the Treasury report.  Perhaps you can use the OIA to find out yourself.  It should be an easy request.

 

 

Actually the article does. Savings are 1/10 of one percent. Treasury call that infinitesimal. Genter calls it substantial. 


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Obraik
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  #2308054 29-Aug-2019 19:34
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tdgeek:

 

 

 

Dont be trite. We are all EV fans in this thread. 

 

Where are the details from Genter that she is correct? Is the less than 1/10th of one percent inaccurate? Treasury calls it infinitesimal. I agree. Genter says its substantial. Do the math. That is the detail

 

Its no cop out. People buy new cars in NZ. They dont buy 40000 cars for 80000 that will never recoup that premium. 8k wont help that. Comment on the gaps I raised. Its simple, basic math. Buying EV's at NZ prices, with NZ salary, with NZ fuel costs is a bad investment. The feebate wont shift people from an ICE to an EV, it will help those already buying an EV, so for those, there is zero benefit to NZ. Infinitesimal.

 

What will shift people in NZ, are prices that make an EV a cost saver, and affordable. That will happen in due course. 

 

 

 

 

The 1/10th figure doesn't tell me how Treasury came to that figure. What are they basing it on? There is literally no other detail other than that one figure. There's really no point discussing it without knowing how they came to that figure.

 

Of course an incentive will help people pick an EV over an ICE vehicle. There is clear evidence that this happens from similar things done in other countries.


tdgeek
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  #2308061 29-Aug-2019 19:46
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Its not an off course. Give me the detail of the sakes overseas, and seperate the sakes that would have occurred anyway, and the sales that only occurred due to a subsidy. I will await with interest. But I do have NZ figures available. 100% of sales in NZ occurred with no subsidy




tdgeek
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  #2308069 29-Aug-2019 19:59
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What are the opinions on non plug in hybrids? I have a few friends of friends who have gone down this track.

 

We have one car and one motorbike. Works well for us, especially me in the summer :-)  However, I hardly use the bike now. Doesn't matter. But I have got back into golf, so I need another car. I thought Id get a cheapie, as it will literally only be used for golf, 3 weekends out of 4, and the odd mid week. It will literally be my golf "carT"  Hence just get a cheapie. Looking at a 2010 Nissan Note. That will fit, Im told, 2 sets of clubs and trundlers with the rear seats down. Mostly I just need 1 set, but 2 sets just in case. About $6.5k. I see the 2017 model is a non plug in hybrid. 1200cc petrol 3 cylinder engine that charges the battery. 2.9L/100km and a range of 1300km on the 47L gas tank. Regen braking, and the petrol engine can assist the EV. 40kW EV, 1.5kW battery.  Quite cool actually. At $18-$19k its an expensive golf car, but not out of the question. 

 

Good idea? Given the cost of pure EV's if new, this seems a good green option. An older Leaf is a similar price I think.

 

Thoughts? 


Obraik
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  #2308090 29-Aug-2019 20:36
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tdgeek:

 

Its not an off course. Give me the detail of the sakes overseas, and seperate the sakes that would have occurred anyway, and the sales that only occurred due to a subsidy. I will await with interest. But I do have NZ figures available. 100% of sales in NZ occurred with no subsidy

 

 

Sweden has recently gone a similar route as what NZ is doing - providing incentives for EVs while putting an "emissions tax" on ICE vehicles.  This has increased the sales of EVs by 253%, so much that it's grown a bit too fast for their infrastructure. Do note at the end the article mentions that this is despite EVs costing almost twice the price of an ICE vehicle after the incentive


empacher48
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  #2308096 29-Aug-2019 20:58
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Obraik:


Sweden has recently gone a similar route as what NZ is doing - providing incentives for EVs while putting an "emissions tax" on ICE vehicles.  This has increased the sales of EVs by 253%, so much that it's grown a bit too fast for their infrastructure. Do note at the end the article mentions that this is despite EVs costing almost twice the price of an ICE vehicle after the incentive



It’s great what Sweden are doing, but if you look at the huge variety of EV’s available for sale over there vs NZ. We are such a small car market and comparing what we can buy in NZ vs what you can buy in Europe means that buyers have a larger number of EVs to buy in a wider price range. Plus the push from manufacturers to meet to deadlines over in Europe mean that the vast majority of vehicles for sale over there will not reach our shores for another 4 to 5 years. We are such a small market in RHD vs Europe such a large market in LHD.

The one EV I’m keen to buy, I have been told by the NZ distributer that they will only have 15 vehicles for sale in 2020 and may have 100 for sale in NZ by 2021, only if they sell the first 15 vehicles in under 3 weeks without the subsidy . Against over 5000 next year in Europe and 15000 in 2021.

As much as I would love to have an EV right now, buying a new EV with their current price premium doesn’t make sense until the supply side for NZ is larger. Right now demand is growing, supply is growing but not as fast as demand, so the prices are going to be remaining high. Why sell an EV that costs $20,000 to build for $30,000 when you can sell it for $60,000 right now, because you can’t supply the numbers to meet demand?

Once EVs are sitting around on wharves, or warehouses without buyers, then the price will start to drop. That won’t be happening in NZ for another ten years.

tdgeek
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  #2308097 29-Aug-2019 20:58
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Its not an off course. Give me the detail of the sakes overseas, and seperate the sakes that would have occurred anyway, and the sales that only occurred due to a subsidy. I will await with interest. But I do have NZ figures available. 100% of sales in NZ occurred with no subsidy

 

 

Sweden has recently gone a similar route as what NZ is doing - providing incentives for EVs while putting an "emissions tax" on ICE vehicles.  This has increased the sales of EVs by 253%, so much that it's grown a bit too fast for their infrastructure. Do note at the end the article mentions that this is despite EVs costing almost twice the price of an ICE vehicle after the incentive

 

 

A quick Google tells me this

 


At 329,990 Swedish krona ($49,517 U.S. at the current exchange rate), including VAT and Sweden's newly announced "supergreen" incentive, Nissan says the Leaf costs nearly the same as a conventional compact hatch. The price of Leaf in Sweden without incentives is 369,900 krona ($55,306 U.S.). That may sound like is a lot when compared to the price of the U.S. Leaf, but cars are simply more expensive in Sweden.

 

Therein lies the problem. A Leaf is priced close to a conventional car, so it represents similar affordability, excellent fuel cost savings (ignoring temporary RUC exemptions) and you can jump into helping the globe without paying double the price. So, this hasn't told me the level of extra benefit that the subsidy provided, as the Leaf itself in this one example gives PLENTY of reasons to buy. As the price is close to ICE, the subsidy in Sweden would add buyers, this that can almost afford new, can now bridge that gap. Not here in NZ




tdgeek
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  #2308098 29-Aug-2019 21:03
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empacher48:

It’s great what Sweden are doing, but if you look at the huge variety of EV’s available for sale over there vs NZ. We are such a small car market and comparing what we can buy in NZ vs what you can buy in Europe means that buyers have a larger number of EVs to buy in a wider price range. Plus the push from manufacturers to meet to deadlines over in Europe mean that the vast majority of vehicles for sale over there will not reach our shores for another 4 to 5 years. We are such a small market in RHD vs Europe such a large market in LHD.

The one EV I’m keen to buy, I have been told by the NZ distributer that they will only have 15 vehicles for sale in 2020 and may have 100 for sale in NZ by 2021, only if they sell the first 15 vehicles in under 3 weeks without the subsidy . Against over 5000 next year in Europe and 15000 in 2021.

As much as I would love to have an EV right now, buying a new EV with their current price premium doesn’t make sense until the supply side for NZ is larger. Right now demand is growing, supply is growing but not as fast as demand, so the prices are going to be remaining high. Why sell an EV that costs $20,000 to build for $30,000 when you can sell it for $60,000 right now, because you can’t supply the numbers to meet demand?

Once EVs are sitting around on wharves, or warehouses without buyers, then the price will start to drop. That won’t be happening in NZ for another ten years.

 

Dont agree. We are behind as far as ranges of models are concerned, but the issue here is the price premium. Sweden has very little price premium. Add the feebate to that, which there, is an incentive, but in NZ the premium is way too high, the feebate doesn't work. Demand is low, it will dribble along, sales rising every year at high% but low volume, until they are mass affordable, as they already are in Sweden. 


tdgeek
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  #2308099 29-Aug-2019 21:04
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Any comments on my Note post?  It seems that ePower, series drive, is a big drawcard in Japan.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/342021/nissan-e-power-a-huge-sales-success-why-not-add-a-plug/

 

 


Obraik
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  #2308102 29-Aug-2019 21:11
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tdgeek:

 

A quick Google tells me this

 


At 329,990 Swedish krona ($49,517 U.S. at the current exchange rate), including VAT and Sweden's newly announced "supergreen" incentive, Nissan says the Leaf costs nearly the same as a conventional compact hatch. The price of Leaf in Sweden without incentives is 369,900 krona ($55,306 U.S.). That may sound like is a lot when compared to the price of the U.S. Leaf, but cars are simply more expensive in Sweden.

 

Therein lies the problem. A Leaf is priced close to a conventional car, so it represents similar affordability, excellent fuel cost savings (ignoring temporary RUC exemptions) and you can jump into helping the globe without paying double the price. So, this hasn't told me the level of extra benefit that the subsidy provided, as the Leaf itself in this one example gives PLENTY of reasons to buy. As the price is close to ICE, the subsidy in Sweden would add buyers, this that can almost afford new, can now bridge that gap. Not here in NZ

 

 

After Googling your quote, I found the article you found - from 2011. The incentives in the article I linked were only introduced late last year


Obraik
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  #2308104 29-Aug-2019 21:14
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empacher48:

It’s great what Sweden are doing, but if you look at the huge variety of EV’s available for sale over there vs NZ. We are such a small car market and comparing what we can buy in NZ vs what you can buy in Europe means that buyers have a larger number of EVs to buy in a wider price range. Plus the push from manufacturers to meet to deadlines over in Europe mean that the vast majority of vehicles for sale over there will not reach our shores for another 4 to 5 years. We are such a small market in RHD vs Europe such a large market in LHD.

The one EV I’m keen to buy, I have been told by the NZ distributer that they will only have 15 vehicles for sale in 2020 and may have 100 for sale in NZ by 2021, only if they sell the first 15 vehicles in under 3 weeks without the subsidy . Against over 5000 next year in Europe and 15000 in 2021.

As much as I would love to have an EV right now, buying a new EV with their current price premium doesn’t make sense until the supply side for NZ is larger. Right now demand is growing, supply is growing but not as fast as demand, so the prices are going to be remaining high. Why sell an EV that costs $20,000 to build for $30,000 when you can sell it for $60,000 right now, because you can’t supply the numbers to meet demand?

Once EVs are sitting around on wharves, or warehouses without buyers, then the price will start to drop. That won’t be happening in NZ for another ten years.

 

All of the top EVs mentioned in the article I linked to are sold here in New Zealand too.

 

Right now, it's only natural that those manufactures are not prioritizing New Zealand for their stock when European countries with their incentives are creating huge demand for their products.


tdgeek
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  #2308197 30-Aug-2019 07:11
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

A quick Google tells me this

 


At 329,990 Swedish krona ($49,517 U.S. at the current exchange rate), including VAT and Sweden's newly announced "supergreen" incentive, Nissan says the Leaf costs nearly the same as a conventional compact hatch. The price of Leaf in Sweden without incentives is 369,900 krona ($55,306 U.S.). That may sound like is a lot when compared to the price of the U.S. Leaf, but cars are simply more expensive in Sweden.

 

Therein lies the problem. A Leaf is priced close to a conventional car, so it represents similar affordability, excellent fuel cost savings (ignoring temporary RUC exemptions) and you can jump into helping the globe without paying double the price. So, this hasn't told me the level of extra benefit that the subsidy provided, as the Leaf itself in this one example gives PLENTY of reasons to buy. As the price is close to ICE, the subsidy in Sweden would add buyers, this that can almost afford new, can now bridge that gap. Not here in NZ

 

 

After Googling your quote, I found the article you found - from 2011. The incentives in the article I linked were only introduced late last year

 

 

You avoided the key point. Yews, it was 2011. EV's have been available in models and feebated for many years. But as I noted, the price premium is low. If Sweden had no feebate, the price premium is low. Why would Swedes not buy EV's? With no feebate the price is not a lot higher, fuel savings are very worth it. Add the long established feebate in, which makes the premium even lower, and its hard to imagine any use case for an ICE. NA is not the same, so no, its no cop out, its a mere fact. You are paying double here. Even with a base spec car such as a Leaf you pay 52k for a feebated Leaf, if there was an ICE Leaf you pay low 30's. That is why the NZ feebate has already failed. The purpose of a feebate is to get new EV buyers, it cannot do that. It will only give a free holiday to existing EV buyers, those who will buy anyway. 


frednz

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  #2308203 30-Aug-2019 07:38
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At the moment, NZ-new 40kWh Nissan Leaf EVs cost around $60,000, and almost new second-hand imports cost around $40,000 - $45,000. Sure these prices are nowhere the $80,000 + you can pay for some longer range more luxurious EVs, but they are getting closer to the cost of equivalent petrol vehicles and are more what most NZers would go for.

 

It's so obvious from overseas experience that EV incentives work and if applied to the above Nissan Leaf example, then sales of EVs would most likely take off quite quickly.


Dingbatt
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  #2308206 30-Aug-2019 07:51
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tdgeek:

 

Any comments on my Note post?  It seems that ePower, series drive, is a big drawcard in Japan.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/342021/nissan-e-power-a-huge-sales-success-why-not-add-a-plug/

 

 

 

 

Responded in the EV thread.





“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996


tdgeek
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  #2308224 30-Aug-2019 08:20
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frednz:

 

At the moment, NZ-new 40kWh Nissan Leaf EVs cost around $60,000, and almost new second-hand imports cost around $40,000 - $45,000. Sure these prices are nowhere the $80,000 + you can pay for some longer range more luxurious EVs, but they are getting closer to the cost of equivalent petrol vehicles and are more what most NZers would go for.

 

It's so obvious from overseas experience that EV incentives work and if applied to the above Nissan Leaf example, then sales of EVs would most likely take off quite quickly.

 

 

Im not so sure we can categorically state that. Take the Sweden example. We can see great growth there. They have had a subsidy for some time. That gets taken as cause and effect. But is it? There, the price premium is much lower. If there was no subsidy, its hard to buy an ICE as the smaller extra premium, makes an EV a compelling buy. Add the subsidy, that off course helps further, but the key is, the much lower price premium is what has made EV the most sensible buy in Sweden, not the feebate. The feebate does off course allow more people to jump in. In NZ, a base car such as a 60k Leaf is still 52k, its still out of reach

 

When prices here subside, then why buy an ICE? We are not there yet


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