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579 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2382916 30-Dec-2019 13:22
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mikebails:
Ge0rge: What I have missed is seeing one/ten/how ever many I want - in a Tesla store ready for me to walk in, pay my US$30k, and drive it away this afternoon.


Very few places will let you do that unless you’re willing to take what they have sitting in the lot (there are 2x model 3’s in stock right now in Auckland.

Most brand new cars have a order/wait period of days/weeks/months. We were quoted a 6 month wait for a Kona EV from Hyundai. I had to wait about 3 weeks for a Mazda 6 I purchased years ago.



Fair enough. I guess the point I'm making is that you can do this. The argument was made above that GM and Ford will be bankrupt by about 2023 because they aren't making electric vehicles, and by another post that the cybertruck is a direct competitor to the F150.

I'm saying that's bollocks. American's have a love affair with the F150 - it got Ford through the last recession on sales of that vehicle alone. The cybertruck is not going to outsell it in the next couple of years - you can't even buy one today - nor is it going to result in the demise of Ford.

This is well off topic now sorry.

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Ultimate Geek


  #2382919 30-Dec-2019 13:26
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You are mistaking what makes car companies bankrupt anyhow.

 

GM already went bankrupt recently..

 

Ford avoided it last time because they sold off all the family silver (JLR etc).


 
 
 
 


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Wannabe Geek


  #2382922 30-Dec-2019 13:31
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Ford carrying 222 BILLION debt makes it very vulnerable

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Uber Geek

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  #2382925 30-Dec-2019 13:40
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Granthod: Ford carrying 222 BILLION debt makes it very vulnerable

 

I see different numbers everywhere

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/moodys-downgrades-ford-credit-rating-to-junk-status.html

 

Unsure what that has to do with EV's though, both as to the past and the near future. Are most car production now EV's already?


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Ultimate Geek


  #2382926 30-Dec-2019 13:41
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Heres how it works, car companies survive by predicting the exact quantities of cars they will produce.

 

They have to do this 5-10 years ahead of time.

 

 

 

Miss by 10-20% and you are hurting, by more and you are in serious trouble.  You can shore this up for a short time by stuffing the channel, offering good lease deals etc, this only works short term though. But whatever you do you cant easily stop making all those cars without major pain.

 

 

 

Which is why the model 3 is causing such trouble in Germany, its taking a big chunk of the mid sized sedan market, you are already seeing tens of thousands of job losses in German Auto as they try and shift to adjust.

 

 

 

Ford sell ~1 million f150s a year in USA, Tesla dont need to sell a million a year to cause trouble, they need to sell 200k.

 

 

 

BTW whilst the f150 is the largest selling vehicle, the SUV market is the largest chunk and where ford make a lot of money, the Model Y is gunning for that starting very soon, which explains why Ford have pushed out their EV SUV the mustang mach-e, they are betting the company on that.


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  #2382929 30-Dec-2019 13:44
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RobDickinson:

 

Ge0rge:
Granthod:

 

Sorry major manufacturers are way behind with battery production, FSD, and planning for transition. Tesla will be wanting to maintain margins to stay self funding to accelerate the transition to EVs. Watch for Ford and GM to go bankrupt about 2023.

 



To quote the M10 Mega ad - "Mate, you're dreaming!"

Until Tesla can build an F150 equivalent, at the same price point, Ford are quite safe.

And that's not going to happen in the next three years.

 

You seem to have missed the cybertruck then.

 

 

I've seen the cybertruck. Ford are quite safe.


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Ultimate Geek


  #2382930 30-Dec-2019 13:45
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Nokia are quite safe...


 
 
 
 


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  #2382932 30-Dec-2019 13:51
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RobDickinson:

 

Heres how it works, car companies survive by predicting the exact quantities of cars they will produce.

 

They have to do this 5-10 years ahead of time.

 

 

 

Miss by 10-20% and you are hurting, by more and you are in serious trouble.  You can shore this up for a short time by stuffing the channel, offering good lease deals etc, this only works short term though. But whatever you do you cant easily stop making all those cars without major pain.

 

 

 

Which is why the model 3 is causing such trouble in Germany, its taking a big chunk of the mid sized sedan market, you are already seeing tens of thousands of job losses in German Auto as they try and shift to adjust.

 

 

 

Ford sell ~1 million f150s a year in USA, Tesla dont need to sell a million a year to cause trouble, they need to sell 200k.

 

 

 

BTW whilst the f150 is the largest selling vehicle, the SUV market is the largest chunk and where ford make a lot of money, the Model Y is gunning for that starting very soon, which explains why Ford have pushed out their EV SUV the mustang mach-e, they are betting the company on that.

 

 

How much is a F150 and a Tesla F150 equivalent in size and range?

 

Same with a Ford SUV and a Tesla Y  (Y is a SUV????  Looks the same as many 5 door cars I see on the road)

 

If Ford sell 1 Million F150's, how many do they sell of all their models and ranges?  Tesla?

 

 




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  #2382954 30-Dec-2019 15:21
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Removed a few messages because they added nothing to the conversation. Keep it civil people.


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Wannabe Geek


  #2382971 30-Dec-2019 16:51
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This article provides a useful analysis of the likely trajectory of EV sales and the impact this has on other car makers, and on oil pricing and production. We could be in for a very bumpy decade, geopolitically speaking...

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond


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  #2383105 30-Dec-2019 20:08
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Granthod:

 

This article provides a useful analysis of the likely trajectory of EV sales and the impact this has on other car makers, and on oil pricing and production. We could be in for a very bumpy decade, geopolitically speaking...

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond

 

 

I can't see this Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026

 

Its ALL about production. Can EVs be produced in the same numbers that ICE is now? In 5 years?


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Ultimate Geek


  #2383107 30-Dec-2019 20:17
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tdgeek:

Granthod:


This article provides a useful analysis of the likely trajectory of EV sales and the impact this has on other car makers, and on oil pricing and production. We could be in for a very bumpy decade, geopolitically speaking...


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond



I can't see this Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026


Its ALL about production. Can EVs be produced in the same numbers that ICE is now? In 5 years?



Absolutely not.

Around 100m cars a year, by around 2030 we'll have battery supply for about 30%, mebe 35%, that's including the over 100 gigafactorys planned at the moment plus they all need lithium etc has to be scaled up.

I've car sales may drop off a cliff so 30-40m evs might be the majority by then though I am guessing a lot of hybrids too.

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  #2383109 30-Dec-2019 20:21
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Ge0rge:
RobDickinson:

wooosh go the goal posts.



Wasn't me who said they'd be bankrupt about 2023...


2023 is up to 4 years away. Think about where we were 4 years ago....and this is accelerating as it scales up.




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  #2383111 30-Dec-2019 20:25
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tdgeek:

 

Granthod:

 

This article provides a useful analysis of the likely trajectory of EV sales and the impact this has on other car makers, and on oil pricing and production. We could be in for a very bumpy decade, geopolitically speaking...

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond

 

 

I can't see this Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026

 

Its ALL about production. Can EVs be produced in the same numbers that ICE is now? In 5 years?

 

 

It's not all about production, it's also utility. Many won't want to replace their ICE until EV range is significantly improved.




Webhead
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  #2383116 30-Dec-2019 20:38
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dafman:

It's not all about production, it's also utility. Many won't want to replace their ICE until EV range is significantly improved.



Can you be more specific about what kind of range you think is necessary?

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