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  #2383120 30-Dec-2019 20:45
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dafman:

 

tdgeek:

 

Granthod:

 

This article provides a useful analysis of the likely trajectory of EV sales and the impact this has on other car makers, and on oil pricing and production. We could be in for a very bumpy decade, geopolitically speaking...

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond

 

 

I can't see this Based on the information studied, I estimate new ICE car sales will be approaching 0 around 2026

 

Its ALL about production. Can EVs be produced in the same numbers that ICE is now? In 5 years?

 

 

It's not all about production, it's also utility. Many won't want to replace their ICE until EV range is significantly improved.

 

 

I agree, but all the emission benefits wont happen till the production volume is there to !) allow them to be similarly priced, 2) allow anyone with any car to choose an equivalent (size and range)

 

Right now the price premie is too high, the EV makers produce very few and these are take up, so no need to drop prices. Early Adopter Syndrome. So while the hype is front and centre, and I am a fan, the emission benefit doesn't exist, due to minuscule volume. When production can equate to ICE production, AND prices are reasonable (remember that fuel cost savings are low) then there is no financial benefit, and while all of us want to be green, who will stump up near to double the price ?


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  #2383121 30-Dec-2019 20:50
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jarledb:
dafman:

 

It's not all about production, it's also utility. Many won't want to replace their ICE until EV range is significantly improved.

 



Can you be more specific about what kind of range you think is necessary?

 

500k while towing, and the ability to add another 500k of range in 5 minutes at literally as many places and as well distributed as petrol stations are currently around - with no waiting time.

 

I know things are getting better, but the chance of having to wait 30 minutes to even plug in at Hampden and then wait 30 minutes to even get any meaningful range added is a show stopper for me (and many others)

 

Of course, it's not an issue for everyone... I would never try and tell anyone else what they need or that their requirements are invalid.

 

Cheers - N

 

 





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  #2383123 30-Dec-2019 20:53
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500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.

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  #2383128 30-Dec-2019 21:08
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RobDickinson: 500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.

 

I added this in the hope that it would circumvent that sort of comment - "Of course, it's not an issue for everyone... I would never try and tell anyone else what they need or that their requirements are invalid."

 

In any case, while I don't do it every weekend, I do several times a year chase around and spectate rallies (not always towing)... That's often 500km+ with often JUST enough time to splash in some extra gas. We stop in the middle of forests and fields for hours, not at a convenient supercharger.

 

Not everyone uses a car just to go from A to B in a well planned out, time insensitive fashion.

 

Again, any proposition or argument that ignores real world, genuine use cases and then marginalises them when brought up is a bad proposition or argument.

 

YES, I could hire a petrol car for the several times a year I was to go chasing rallies, and I know any appeal I make to the price of that will be shot down by claiming that I'd save more over the rest of the year - but I don't have to... The fact is that currently there's no electric vehicle that I could use year round so I either have multiple road cars or have the hassle of renting every time I want to do something that an EV can't do.

 

I wouldn't dream of telling someone that an EV wouldn't suit them if they had made a considered decision that it would - why do EVangelists not extend that courtesy in return?

 

 

 

Cheers - N

 

 

 

 

 

 





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Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


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  #2383131 30-Dec-2019 21:13
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Multiple road cars needs to be encouraged to promote the uptake of EVs IMO. At the moment its too expensive to hang onto one ICE for the odd weekend trip so its the daily doing all the trips that an EV would easily do.





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  #2383137 30-Dec-2019 21:40
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I guess the problem is that if we continue to do that we have always done then we will continue to get what we have always got - and as i read the current thinking this is global warming that is leading to real problems for us all.


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  #2383138 30-Dec-2019 21:42
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dafman:

It's not all about production, it's also utility. Many won't want to replace their ICE until EV range is significantly improved.



The range is already fine. It's just the price now. That's coming down rapidly.

Here's my drive from Friday in my Tesla Model 3. I went from Opotiki to Wellington and back. I only needed to charge once on the way and on the way back.

I didn't get tired because the car did much of the driving by itself under my supervision.

The future is now. The prices are still high, but I remember VCRs being $3,500 when average salaries were $12,000/yr. They rapidly got cheaper as people wanted them. This is already happening. The MG ZS EV at $50,100 has 3 times the range of an EV 8 years ago for 60% of the price.


.




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  #2383145 30-Dec-2019 21:57
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Out of interest I just went to Trademe to see what was available - my question was that if I had about $34k to blow on a nice new (to me) car that would do most things I wanted, how close could I get with an EV.

 

As it turns out it's a very very simple answer right now.

 

Literally nothing is avalable. I am going to exclude Mitsi MiEVs (80k range), nv200 type vans and Smart fourtwos (100k range)... What's left up to say $35k? Nissan Leafs. That's it. AND EVEN THEN, I had to get to about $48k before I found one of the 40kwh models claiming over 200k highway range.

 

The first secondhand EV claiming over 300k range was a near new Hyundai Kona (at about $67k)

 

Now, for $34k recently I bought a luxury V8 SUV with 400hp and allllll the bells and whistles. It has a huge tank and can tow. For the same money the BEST I could find was a Nissan Leaf with 150k range.

 

EV pricing is not going to drop at the same rate as electronics for many reasons - most of which should be apparent to anyone reading this.

 

 

 

And I'm not badly off - not many people have $34k to spend on a road car...

 

I'm sure things will get better at some stage, but at the moment they are suitable for commuting or where a family has an ICE based vehicle as well... I am sure there are also those around that will MAKE them work because they want them to work, based on either a desire to be part of the cutting edge evangelist group or on environmental concerns. Both are completely valid for those people but it's a fact at the moment there is a HUGE amount more utility in a much cheaper secondhand ICE vehicle than an EV. And if you want to spend less than $50k on an EV, then for most people it's essentially unsuitable for anything that involves leaving town. Not everyone though - some heroes will (and do) make it work.

 

 

 

N

 

 





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Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


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  #2383146 30-Dec-2019 22:04
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Talkiet:

Out of interest I just went to Trademe to see what was available - my question was that if I had about $34k to blow on a nice new (to me) car that would do most things I wanted, how close could I get with an EV.


As it turns out it's a very very simple answer right now.


Literally nothing is avalable. I am going to exclude Mitsi MiEVs (80k range), nv200 type vans and Smart fourtwos (100k range)... What's left up to say $35k? Nissan Leafs. That's it. AND EVEN THEN, I had to get to about $48k before I found one of the 40kwh models claiming over 200k highway range.


The first secondhand EV claiming over 300k range was a near new Hyundai Kona (at about $67k)


Now, for $34k recently I bought a luxury V8 SUV with 400hp and allllll the bells and whistles. It has a huge tank and can tow. For the same money the BEST I could find was a Nissan Leaf with 150k range.


EV pricing is not going to drop at the same rate as electronics for many reasons - most of which should be apparent to anyone reading this.


 


And I'm not badly off - not many people have $34k to spend on a road car...


I'm sure things will get better at some stage, but at the moment they are suitable for commuting or where a family has an ICE based vehicle as well... I am sure there are also those around that will MAKE them work because they want them to work, based on either a desire to be part of the cutting edge evangelist group or on environmental concerns. Both are completely valid for those people but it's a fact at the moment there is a HUGE amount more utility in a much cheaper secondhand ICE vehicle than an EV. And if you want to spend less than $50k on an EV, then for most people it's essentially unsuitable for anything that involves leaving town. Not everyone though - some heroes will (and do) make it work.


 


N


 



Now add up the fuel and maintenance cost for your V8 SUV over the next 5 years and add that to the price.

The EV won't cost much more than that.




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If you order a Tesla, click my referral code below to order your car and get free stuff. 

 

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  #2383148 30-Dec-2019 22:08
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Linuxluver:
Talkiet:

 

Out of interest I just went to Trademe to see what was available - my question was that if I had about $34k to blow on a nice new (to me) car that would do most things I wanted, how close could I get with an EV.

 

As it turns out it's a very very simple answer right now.

 

Figuratively nothing is avalable. I am going to exclude Mitsi MiEVs (80k range), nv200 type vans and Smart fourtwos (100k range)... What's left up to say $35k? Nissan Leafs. That's it. AND EVEN THEN, I had to get to about $48k before I found one of the 40kwh models claiming over 200k highway range.

 

The first secondhand EV claiming over 300k range was a near new Hyundai Kona (at about $67k)

 

Now, for $34k recently I bought a luxury V8 SUV with 400hp and allllll the bells and whistles. It has a huge tank and can tow. For the same money the BEST I could find was a Nissan Leaf with 150k range.

 

EV pricing is not going to drop at the same rate as electronics for many reasons - most of which should be apparent to anyone reading this.

 

And I'm not badly off - not many people have $34k to spend on a road car...

 

I'm sure things will get better at some stage, but at the moment they are suitable for commuting or where a family has an ICE based vehicle as well... I am sure there are also those around that will MAKE them work because they want them to work, based on either a desire to be part of the cutting edge evangelist group or on environmental concerns. Both are completely valid for those people but it's a fact at the moment there is a HUGE amount more utility in a much cheaper secondhand ICE vehicle than an EV. And if you want to spend less than $50k on an EV, then for most people it's essentially unsuitable for anything that involves leaving town. Not everyone though - some heroes will (and do) make it work.

 

N

 



Now add up the fuel and maintenance cost for your V8 SUV over the next 5 years and add that to the price.

The EV won't cost much more than that.

 

You still don't get it. There's figuratively NO EV AVAILABLE in NZ that can do I what I use my car for. Not even a brand new Tesla Model X 100D.

 

And that would be the model that would get close to doing what I want - are you suggesting I am going to spend about $200k on fuel and maintenance over the next 5 years - because I don't think it will be that much.

 

You can't seriously think that in an apples to apples comparison (Size, comfort, features, capability, range) than an EV available today is even close to price parity over 5 years with a second hand ICE. (Unless you are looking at a situation where a Leaf would suffice - in which case, yeah I can see a case for that)

 

 

 

N

 

 





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Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


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  #2383151 30-Dec-2019 22:22
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Talkiet:

Linuxluver:
Talkiet:


Out of interest I just went to Trademe to see what was available - my question was that if I had about $34k to blow on a nice new (to me) car that would do most things I wanted, how close could I get with an EV.


As it turns out it's a very very simple answer right now.


Figuratively nothing is avalable. I am going to exclude Mitsi MiEVs (80k range), nv200 type vans and Smart fourtwos (100k range)... What's left up to say $35k? Nissan Leafs. That's it. AND EVEN THEN, I had to get to about $48k before I found one of the 40kwh models claiming over 200k highway range.


The first secondhand EV claiming over 300k range was a near new Hyundai Kona (at about $67k)


Now, for $34k recently I bought a luxury V8 SUV with 400hp and allllll the bells and whistles. It has a huge tank and can tow. For the same money the BEST I could find was a Nissan Leaf with 150k range.


EV pricing is not going to drop at the same rate as electronics for many reasons - most of which should be apparent to anyone reading this.


And I'm not badly off - not many people have $34k to spend on a road car...


I'm sure things will get better at some stage, but at the moment they are suitable for commuting or where a family has an ICE based vehicle as well... I am sure there are also those around that will MAKE them work because they want them to work, based on either a desire to be part of the cutting edge evangelist group or on environmental concerns. Both are completely valid for those people but it's a fact at the moment there is a HUGE amount more utility in a much cheaper secondhand ICE vehicle than an EV. And if you want to spend less than $50k on an EV, then for most people it's essentially unsuitable for anything that involves leaving town. Not everyone though - some heroes will (and do) make it work.


N




Now add up the fuel and maintenance cost for your V8 SUV over the next 5 years and add that to the price.

The EV won't cost much more than that.


You still don't get it. There's figuratively NO EV AVAILABLE in NZ that can do I what I use my car for. Not even a brand new Tesla Model X 100D.


And that would be the model that would get close to doing what I want - are you suggesting I am going to spend about $200k on fuel and maintenance over the next 5 years - because I don't think it will be that much.


You can't seriously think that in an apples to apples comparison (Size, comfort, features, capability, range) than an EV available today is even close to price parity over 5 years with a second hand ICE. (Unless you are looking at a situation where a Leaf would suffice - in which case, yeah I can see a case for that)


 


N


 



That may be true today. But if you understood how serious climate change is now - rapidly accelerating - you might be willing to compromise your lifestyle choices a little so you don't wreck the world for your kids.

We've compromised. It's serious. Aussie is learning the hard way. We've been lucky so far.






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  #2383153 30-Dec-2019 22:27
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Oh I believe it's serious, but I also don't believe that individual behaviour changes are going to do anything measurable... I know nice people (individuals) but 'people' on the whole are monsters. Change will come when the more environmentally friendly alternatives are better AND cheaper than the encumbent solutions, or when they are mandated through law.

 

Until then, I am not going to compromise just to feel like I am doing something meaningful... In any case, I'm not having kids and as we all know, that by itself makes me greener than virtually everyone else :-)

 

Cheers - N

 

 





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  #2383156 30-Dec-2019 22:44
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RobDickinson: 500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.


How many EV's can get even close to 500 km while towing on one recharge..




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  #2383160 30-Dec-2019 22:59
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Technofreak:
RobDickinson: 500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.


How many EV's can get even close to 500 km while towing on one recharge..


More and more a corner case. If you had to charge every 5 hours of driving (350km in most of NZ) you'd be a safer driver. Probably every 4 hours would be even better.




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  #2383161 30-Dec-2019 23:00
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Linuxluver:
Technofreak:
RobDickinson: 500km whilst towing is 6-7 hours of driving and you'll only stop for 5 min? Before doing another 500km? Without stopping.

Some people would say that's a touch unrealistic.

Picton to manapouri isn't even that far.


How many EV's can get even close to 500 km while towing on one recharge..


More and more a corner case. If you had to charge every 5 hours of driving (350km in most of NZ) you'd be a safer driver. Probably every 4 hours would be even better.

 

Or swaps seats and let someone else drive :-)

 

N

 

 





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Please note all comments are the product of my own brain and don't necessarily represent the position or opinions of my employer, previous employers, colleagues, friends or pets.


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