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tdgeek
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  #2261086 19-Jun-2019 20:16
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Obraik:

 

 

 

Of course, we're not going to be clicking our fingers and swapping our 3.8million cars to EVs over night. This will be a gradual transition over the next few decades, which we can respond to by building the power stations that already have consent 

 

 

Thats true. If we can expand hydro that far that's fine. if we cannot, then EV doesnt work, its not sustainable.


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  #2261087 19-Jun-2019 20:18
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shk292:

 

tdgeek:

 

It strikes me that adding one winter day of power usage for every light vehicle every week  is a lot of generation. What does 3.8 million x 40kwH x 52 add up to? Plus all the buses and all the trains

 

 

So what do you suggest?  There are really only three options - continue with FF, increase renewable or introduce nuclear.  Or, vastly reduce our energy use.

 

 

For this here that are interested in combatting climate change, we need to stop almost all FF. We can increase hydro, add more wind add tidal, reduce energy use such as public transport. The key is what is our maximum renewable generation? Grab that number and work backwards.


tdgeek
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  #2261089 19-Jun-2019 20:21
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Delphinus:

 

tdgeek:

 

that adding one winter day of power usage for every light vehicle every week  is a lot of generation. What does 3.8 million x 40kwH x 52 add up to? Plus all the buses and all the trains

 

 

Remember it's only 3kWh per day (or 21kWh per week - half your estimated 40kWh. 

 

3kWh is running a typical 2kW convection heater for 1.5 hours. It's not much. Time it to run from midnight to 6am when there is no demand, gradually transition in over 20-30 years. Easy. 

 

 

My estimate is an educated  guess based on mileage for 40kWh. Mr OB keeps going back to now much school and work mileage is. Is that all we use? Back in the day the average mileage was 10,000 makes per year, say a conservative 15000 km. Thats 288km our week, much mine than this cherry picked work mileage. Ok, so we can mange work mileage, so do  we use ICE for the rest?


tdgeek
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  #2261091 19-Jun-2019 20:23
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frankv:

 

tdgeek:

 

Where does all this electricity come from, thin  air?

 

 

50% of it comes from not converting it to hydrogen.

 

 

 

 

We dont convert to Hydrogen here, and overseas its testing is negligible. So where doers this 152M kWh per week come from?


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  #2261093 19-Jun-2019 20:24
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Or maybe thin air? Why no answer?

 

As I mentioned further up, we could always build the power stations that already have consent as required

 

 

Let me know if my calc works with that, 152 million kWh per week


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  #2261094 19-Jun-2019 20:26
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Delphinus:

 

Sorry you were right. The numbers were slightly wrong. Correct data from Stats NZ "Average km per work journey" is 11.5km. Make that a return trip = 23km. Using 160wh/km we get 3.6kW. 2 hours of charging a night should easily cover that.

 

Source: http://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE7432
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Specifications

 

 

 

 

Good call. Its only 23km her day for work use. So we will sue our EV for that, and our ICE for everything else. 288km is my estimate, less 115km work use. Climate Change is losing as you want to use more ICE than EV


shk292
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  #2261096 19-Jun-2019 20:27
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tdgeek:

 

Wrong again, time doesn't matter. The issue is my estimate of 40kWh per car per week. EV range is low, seems a good estimate to me. We need to find 40kWh our vehicle per week from somewhere. Now that Im home, 3.8 M x 40kWh x 52 is 7904 Million kWh per year. 152M kWh per week, how much new Hydro does that amount to?

 

 

I make it 905MW. So if you look at the list of consented power stations linked to above, it's the equivalent of the hydro and tidal power stations on that list.  Maybe add some of the consented wind farms to give resilience.


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  #2261098 19-Jun-2019 20:29
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frednz:

 

Post from "Kingdragonfly" 14 June 2019:

 

"Here's a book on the subject, and in particular hydrogen

Hell and High Water: Global Warming--the Solution and the Politics--and What We Should Do

https://www.amazon.com/Hell-High-Water-Warming-Politics/dp/006117212X "

 

 

 

Wikipedia, when summarising this book mentions that:

 

Part I, comprising the first four chapters of the book, reviews the science of climate change, setting forth the evidence that humans are causing an unprecedented increase in carbon emissions that is, in turn causing global warming. The book describes the consequences of unchecked climate change, such as destruction of coastal cities due to rising sea levels and mega-hurricanes; increasing droughts and deadly water shortages; infestation of insects into new ranges; and increased famines, heat waves, forest fires and desertification. The book sets forth the research on "feedback loops" that would contribute to accelerating climate change, including:

 

  • melting ice at the poles that means less reflection of sunlight by white ice and more absorption of the sun’s heat by ocean water and dark land;
  • an increasing amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (water vapor is a greenhouse gas);
  • melting permafrost in the Arctic, where more carbon is locked in Arctic permafrost than in all of the Earth’s atmosphere and where methane, which is about 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide (CO
    2
    ) as a greenhouse gas, is being released by permafrost in the Arctic faster than scientists previously thought it would;
  • the death of algae and phytoplankton from heat and acidity in the oceans, reducing the CO
    2 being absorbed by them; and
  • the reduced ability of tropical forests to absorb CO
    2 as they are destroyed.

Romm proposes an eight-point program, based on existing technologies, to counter and then reverse the trend toward catastrophic global warming: performance-based efficiency programs; energy efficiencygains from industry and power generation through cogeneration of heat and power; building wind farms; capturing carbon dioxide from proposed coal plants; building nuclear plants; greatly improving the fuel economy of our vehicles using PHEVs; increasing production of high-yield energy crops; and stopping tropical deforestation while planting more trees.(pp. 22–23)

 

It's interesting that a "feedback loop" that could contribute to accelerating climate change is an increasing amount of water vapour in the atmosphere.

 

Some concern has been expressed in this thread (and others) that a large number of hydrogen-powered vehicles, which emit water vapour could increase the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere and thus be part of accelerating climate change.

 

However, the book is now quite out of date (written 2006), so more recent research may not consider that an increase in water vapour is a cause for concern, but it's probably still a factor worthy of more research.

 

 

Good post. But remember water vapour is a result not a cause. Given that 95% of GG is water vapour, and given how minute CO2 is, yet is still causes extra heating, water vapour will be far less minute, yet it cannot hang around to heat as its lost in days, or hours, or minutes. Water Vapur is not a forcer or a heater. As it cannot stay up there. It is a postive feedbacker if other chemicals heat the atmosphere.


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  #2261103 19-Jun-2019 20:42
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shk292:

 

tdgeek:

 

Wrong again, time doesn't matter. The issue is my estimate of 40kWh per car per week. EV range is low, seems a good estimate to me. We need to find 40kWh our vehicle per week from somewhere. Now that Im home, 3.8 M x 40kWh x 52 is 7904 Million kWh per year. 152M kWh per week, how much new Hydro does that amount to?

 

 

I make it 905MW. So if you look at the list of consented power stations linked to above, it's the equivalent of the hydro and tidal power stations on that list.  Maybe add some of the consented wind farms to give resilience.

 

 

Cheers

 

Just to recap, 3.8 Million (light class vehicles ) x 40kWh (guesstimate of one weeks driving) x 52 (weeks) = 7904 million kWh 7904,000,000 kWh  How many MW is that?


Delphinus
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  #2261127 19-Jun-2019 21:15
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tdgeek:

 

Delphinus:

 

Sorry you were right. The numbers were slightly wrong. Correct data from Stats NZ "Average km per work journey" is 11.5km. Make that a return trip = 23km. Using 160wh/km we get 3.6kW. 2 hours of charging a night should easily cover that.

 

Source: http://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE7432
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Specifications

 

 

 

 

Good call. Its only 23km her day for work use. So we will sue our EV for that, and our ICE for everything else. 288km is my estimate, less 115km work use. Climate Change is losing as you want to use more ICE than EV

 

 

What is this over non-work commuting you do? Shopping? Do you drive home then turn around again to visit the supermarket every night? Personally I do shopping etc on my way to or from work.

 

Going out every night of the week? What else? How do you manage to add 173km to your weekly drive every single week? At least backup your estimate with some data. 


tdgeek
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  #2261149 19-Jun-2019 21:51
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Delphinus:

 

tdgeek:

 

Delphinus:

 

Sorry you were right. The numbers were slightly wrong. Correct data from Stats NZ "Average km per work journey" is 11.5km. Make that a return trip = 23km. Using 160wh/km we get 3.6kW. 2 hours of charging a night should easily cover that.

 

Source: http://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE7432
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Specifications

 

 

 

 

Good call. Its only 23km her day for work use. So we will sue our EV for that, and our ICE for everything else. 288km is my estimate, less 115km work use. Climate Change is losing as you want to use more ICE than EV

 

 

What is this over non-work commuting you do? Shopping? Do you drive home then turn around again to visit the supermarket every night? Personally I do shopping etc on my way to or from work.

 

Going out every night of the week? What else? How do you manage to add 173km to your weekly drive every single week? At least backup your estimate with some data. 

 

 

Sure. Im not sure why when we work out what mileage our 3.8 million light vehicle fleet does, so we can calculate what kWh we need, that we ONLY look at driving to work and back. Is that all we use cars for? If that the case, we can improve public transport and ban cars. yes, what a silly thing to say, but to say that all our cars only drive to work is silly. I estimated annual mileage is 15000km, its actually 12000km https://www.transport.govt.nz/news/land/we-are-driving-further-and-more-than-ever-before/

 

Or will we only use our EV's for work commuting? So we will be driving ICE a lot, more than EV?

 

In answer to your query, I guess you can get the groceries on the way back from work. I dont. I go to sport once a week at night, out to tea at least once, like tonight. Weekends, can be visiting, shopping, sports. Holidays or weekends might be a trip. Surely this is obvious?

 

The issue was mr OB gave us all his take on commuting, then many seem to feel all we do every week is to and from work with our EV. We dont

 

 


shk292
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  #2261165 19-Jun-2019 22:48
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tdgeek:

 

Just to recap, 3.8 Million (light class vehicles ) x 40kWh (guesstimate of one weeks driving) x 52 (weeks) = 7904 million kWh 7904,000,000 kWh  How many MW is that?

 

 

It's basic maths, not rocket science.  Divide the number of kWh per week by the number of hours in a week to give you the average power level in kW.  I make the 905MW, which is about 9% of NZ's current generating capacity, or 12% of current renewable generating capacity.  So, add say 20% more renewable capacity to the grid, job done.  And that's without even using any hydrogen!


tdgeek
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  #2261168 19-Jun-2019 23:19
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shk292:

 

tdgeek:

 

Just to recap, 3.8 Million (light class vehicles ) x 40kWh (guesstimate of one weeks driving) x 52 (weeks) = 7904 million kWh 7904,000,000 kWh  How many MW is that?

 

 

It's basic maths, not rocket science.  Divide the number of kWh per week by the number of hours in a week to give you the average power level in kW.  I make the 905MW, which is about 9% of NZ's current generating capacity, or 12% of current renewable generating capacity.  So, add say 20% more renewable capacity to the grid, job done.  And that's without even using any hydrogen!

 

 

LOL, yes that's right, its basic arithmetic. Like whoever tells me that an EV is only used to go to work and back and nothing more. And can't understand who drives any more than that so asked me. 

 

152M kWh per week. 904,000 kWh or 904MW. Capacity is 7038MW (2014) (Renewables)

 

We need to add 904MW to cover EV

 

We need to add 2649MW to take care of non renewables. So we need extra capacity of 3553MW. We currently have 7038MW of renewables.We need to add 50% more renewables. But you say 20%? Non renewables by themselves is 29% and thats of total capacity. Its 38% of renewables. 

 

I'll have a quick look at the consented. It seems a bit of a mess, mainly small regional stuff


tdgeek
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  #2261170 19-Jun-2019 23:36
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Consented is about 3363 MW   A significant amount is smaller niche and regional bits and pieces. Thats far from ideal. So a bit short. Plus all buses in NZ and all light trains. And population growth over three decades. There isn't any room for hydro issues. Low lakes in Summer or low lakes due to demand in Winter, or high snowfalls and hence lower catchment in Winter. 


frankv
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  #2261192 20-Jun-2019 06:47
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tdgeek:
frankv:

 

tdgeek:

 

Where does all this electricity come from, thin  air?

 

 

50% of it comes from not converting it to hydrogen.

 



Or maybe thin air? Why no answer?

 

I guess that was a bit obtuse.

 

What I meant was that it comes from wherever *you* were going to get the electricity needed to produce hydrogen. But *you* are going to need to find twice as much for your scheme to work.

 

So... where's the electricity coming from to generate your hydrogen?

 

 


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