Geekzone Rugby (Union) Discussion Thread

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Networkn
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#3151915 24-Oct-2023 22:04

Wombat1:

This is what is raising my anxiety about this weekend. So far in the WC:

NZ: Yellow Cards 5, Red Cards 1

SA: Yellow Cards 1, Red Cards 0

SA's discipline has been fantastic this RWC.

AB's has been overall, pretty terrible, for a long long time. Since before Foster took over.

Given the Crusaders disciplinary record since Razer took over, I don't see discipline being rectified next year either. I seriously hope I am wrong.

Batman

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#3151916 24-Oct-2023 22:09

networkn:

SA's discipline has been fantastic this RWC.

Should go to spec savers?

Wombat1

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#3151925 24-Oct-2023 22:37

Batman:

networkn:

SA's discipline has been fantastic this RWC.

Should go to spec savers?

What particular incident are you referring to batman?

networkn

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#3151927 24-Oct-2023 22:40

Batman:

networkn:

SA's discipline has been fantastic this RWC.

Should go to spec savers?

How many yellow cards in the tournament? 1. How Many Red? 0

I believe their average penalties per game is <10.

Batman

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#3151930 24-Oct-2023 22:51

Wombat1:

What particular incident are you referring to batman?

i thought i spotted a few unpunished infringements but then i'm no expert referee, just arm chair

i thought there was a deliberate knockdown that was called as "not convinced it went forward" so no yellow card

i thought the way the front rowers scrum are illegal (including the one that won a penalty v England)

i thought i saw a few other slowing the ball tactics.

but i have to agree, nothing cynical, no fights and punches, no high tackles that sort of stuff. so maybe in the context of a full on contact sport their discipline could be called excellent, but i'm not convinced everything they do are legal (same with every other team out there, they are all just trying to get any advantage you can). just relieved we are in the final. let's see what happens on Sunday.

MikeAqua

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#3151983 25-Oct-2023 10:16

Batman:

i thought i saw a few other slowing the ball tactics.

In the SA vs England semi, you thought SA was the team slowing the ball?

Mike

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#3151997 25-Oct-2023 10:42

tukapa1: I think you're seeing what you want to see. It's called confirmation bias.

ABs general win rate: 77% International rugby union team records - Wikipedia

ABs win rate with Barnes on the whistle: 67% Wayne Barnes to ref All Blacks final showdown against Boks (1news.co.nz)

We are 13% less likely to win when Barnes has the whistle.

Mike

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networkn

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#3152000 25-Oct-2023 10:45

networkn

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#3152001 25-Oct-2023 10:46

MikeAqua:

ABs general win rate: 77% International rugby union team records - Wikipedia

ABs win rate with Barnes on the whistle: 67% Wayne Barnes to ref All Blacks final showdown against Boks (1news.co.nz)

We are 13% less likely to win when Barnes has the whistle.

Perhaps we get away with more with other referees or we don't adjust well to the pictures he wants painted. To know if he is a good or bad referee, you'd need another metric that determines how effective he is against all teams overall.

You can make stats say anything you want.

AxisOfBeagles

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#3152029 25-Oct-2023 12:29

MikeAqua:

tukapa1: I think you're seeing what you want to see. It's called confirmation bias.

ABs general win rate: 77% International rugby union team records - Wikipedia

ABs win rate with Barnes on the whistle: 67% Wayne Barnes to ref All Blacks final showdown against Boks (1news.co.nz)

We are 13% less likely to win when Barnes has the whistle.

Not sure this holds up analytically. you've cited the AB's historic win percentage? To compare apples to apples, you'd need to contrast win % for the AB's during the same period in which Barnes is the referee, subtracting his games from the overall set and then comparing the two. I suspect it's a lot closer, given the AB's win % this last few years, but I'm just guessing.

The issue is not the who's holding the whistle. The issue is whether the AB's can play a disciplined game, as they did against Ireland. If they do, I suspect they win. if they don't I suspect they lose - and a lot of people then blame the refereeing.

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#3152032 25-Oct-2023 12:37

Loving all of the Rugby World Cup content on YouTube at the moment, particularly from the official RWC channel. Heaps of past legends discussing the game.

Rugby World Cup - YouTube

MikeAqua

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#3152045 25-Oct-2023 12:51

AxisOfBeagles:

Not sure this holds up analytically. you've cited the AB's historic win percentage? To compare apples to apples, you'd need to contrast win % for the AB's during the same period in which Barnes is the referee, subtracting his games from the overall set and then comparing the two. I suspect it's a lot closer, given the AB's win % this last few years, but I'm just guessing.

I thought about that. But ... the rules are always the same for both teams (unless Barnes has the whistle!).

And for Barnes it's a dataset spanning 16 years so a wide range of ABs teams.

I was just curious to see how the numbers stacked up, so I dug them out.

Mike

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#3152047 25-Oct-2023 12:52

AxisOfBeagles:

The issue is not the who's holding the whistle. The issue is whether the AB's can play a disciplined game, as they did against Ireland. If they do, I suspect they win. if they don't I suspect they lose - and a lot of people then blame the refereeing.

Nobody is going to blame the referee when they lose, just as nobody is going to credit their win to a referee.

However a referee can certainly change things in more ways than one and either from commission or from omission. If a team likes to play fast attacking rugby and the referee don't call out tactics that slow down the ball, no fouls are called but that doesn't help the attacking team. If a team likes to create chaos and disrupt the other team's rhythm and the referee gives penalty after penalty, card after card, that is going to cause the team to be more cautious and likely going to get a hiding to nothing from the attacking team. If a team's scrum is bordering on illegal but the referee turns a blind eye, the entire match is going to be problematic for the other team. Worse when the illegal scrum makes the other team look bad and earn the other team unjust penalties.

Mr Barnes is a qualified and practicing barrister and he is one of the most experienced around. I hope he likes the way we play on Sunday. SA is going to try to create chaos.

Anyway, I recall in the WC Final 2019. Maro Itoje had a clean steal off the SA player and the French referee did not call a penalty for ENgland. After an eternity of SA holding on to the ball the clean out came and they went on to score. THat was terrible. Fingers crossed for Sunday. We can only control what we can control. What we can't control we don't worry about.

networkn

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#3152568 27-Oct-2023 11:00

Batman:

Nobody is going to blame the referee when they lose, just as nobody is going to credit their win to a referee.

Well, I blame Barnes for missing a forward pass that cost us the Quarter Final in 2007. I've moved on, but it was an appalling call.

If a similar thing happened, the referee should be held to account, however, if it was a less blatant or 50/50 call then people need to accept that it's a game where there are a lot of moving parts and some stuff will go against you.

As much as possible, you want to remove the referee from the game, and whilst that isn't always possible, you can control your own discipline.

cshwone

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#3152582 27-Oct-2023 11:46

I wonder why Cam Roigard hasn't been named on the bench? I find that puzzling

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