Geekzone Rugby (Union) Discussion Thread

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#1408227 17-Oct-2015 13:43

networkn: If it's a draw NZ wins right? We are the higher ranked team, we scored better in the pool matches etc?

Tasman lost to Auckland last night, I didn't see that coming. I couldn't believe how limp Tasman were for 55 minutes, it was horrible, though Auckland were massively physical so they deserved it.

I have Canterbury to win tonight (duh).

There shall be no draws.

Tied at full time -> extra time
Tied after extra time -> sudden death extra extra time
Still tied -> kicking competition until the death

NonprayingMantis

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#1408228 17-Oct-2015 13:45

Hammerer:
tdgeek:
Its a clear win, France big outsiders, I'd have thought they have a chance, but 1.16 for the AB's means basically no chance.

The TAB odds are not the odds for each side to win. They are the spread that the TAB uses to encourage betting. This is a combination of the TAB's assessment of the actual odds and their plan to maximise profit (or minimise loss). If they were even bets then they'd be say $1.45 each. So for each $1 I bet I could expect to earn $0.73 on average.

Most people would bet on NZ to win so the TAB reduces the odds so the TAB doesn't lose too much on the vast majority of bets. If every body bet on the All Blacks then the TAB loses 16c for every dollar bet. To balance that they make the French odds more attractive. Not many people would bet on France to win unless the odds were very attractive hence the $4.75 encourages speculative bets. If they can get more people to bet on France then that helps balance the loss from the ABs winning.

I think that France are more likely to win this game than the TAB odds suggest, which is probably what the TAB wants me to think. I think the French have about one chance in ten of winning whereas the TAB odds for me, neglecting draws, are positioned at one chance in 23.4 (=$3.75/$0.16) which means France only has to win once in 23.4 games for me to break even from betting on them. In the long term, I could make money by betting on France and that is probably supported by TAB historical results. The problem with betting on France is that this week I am very likely to lose my stake so I would only back France if I could afford to lose many times before France wins another game against NZ.

And then there are drawn results.

I don't think your maths is quite right there.

France are paying $4.75.

to help make the numbers simpler, call it $5.

so if they win, you are up $4 (you paid $4, and you get $5 back, for a net gain of $4)
If they lose, you are down $1 (you paid $1, you get $0 back)

so they would need to win 1 time out of every 5 games for you to break even. (your 4 losses at $1 matches your 1 win at $4)

With the real odds being $4.75, that means they need to win a bit less often than 1 in 5 times for a 'break even'

If you bet $4 @ $4.75, then if they win you have a net gain of $4.75x4 = $19 less the $4 original bet = $15
If you bet $4 and they lose, you have a net loss of $4

so that means, using the proper odds, they would need to win 4 games out of 19 to break even (4/19 is slightly less than 4/20, which is 1/5, so that matches the above calculations)

blair003

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#1408252 17-Oct-2015 15:11

tdgeek:
networkn:
tdgeek: TAB odds, interesting

ABs 1-16 France 4-75.

Sorry to be dumb, but what does that mean? Are those dashes supposed to be .'s? AB's are paying $1.16 to win?

To be fair I'd say that is a fair representation if so.

Sorry, dots. Its a clear win, France big outsiders, I'd have thought they have a chance, but 1.16 for the AB's means basically no chance.

France are clearly outsiders, but that has often/usually been the case over the past 10 years - it doesn't mean we will win.

For most of the past 10 years for any top team if we play them 10 times they will win at most once or twice, so most games we are favourite to some extent. But we still lose the occasional game, and some of those games have been important.

networkn

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#1408258 17-Oct-2015 15:22

blair003:
tdgeek:
networkn:
tdgeek: TAB odds, interesting

ABs 1-16 France 4-75.

Sorry to be dumb, but what does that mean? Are those dashes supposed to be .'s? AB's are paying $1.16 to win?

To be fair I'd say that is a fair representation if so.

Sorry, dots. Its a clear win, France big outsiders, I'd have thought they have a chance, but 1.16 for the AB's means basically no chance.

France are clearly outsiders, but that has often/usually been the case over the past 10 years - it doesn't mean we will win.

For most of the past 10 years for any top team if we play them 10 times they will win at most once or twice, so most games we are favourite to some extent. But we still lose the occasional game, and some of those games have been important.

Agreed. However some confidence in our winning ratio is reasonable (and by extension, this game), unless those who feel confidence are prone to desperate unhappiness and disappointment, in which case you should assume the AB's will lose every game, and you will be pleasantly surprised most the time.

I see a fair amount of irrational commentary in this thread (Not saying anyone specifically) that seems to indicate that said posters believe that if anyone here feels confidence in the AB's, we will lose, when in actual fact, our confidence or lack thereof, will have next to zero effect on how the AB's play. I think the AB coaches have done an outstanding
job over the past 10 years of helping the AB's remain grounded, not allowing overconfidence to creep in and affect their game.

I did however last night dream that the AB's were getting slaughtered in the first half, and came back to win in the final few seconds ala Ireland 2014, and Tasman's come back which I watched last night).

In reality, I suspect we will win this game tomorrow by 10-14 points. I believe in order to beat us, we would have to have a very very bad night, and the French would have to have their best night. If we played ok, and they play well, we will probably still beat them.

Hammerer

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#1408259 17-Oct-2015 15:26

You're right about that.

My mistake. My first draft talked about the impact on the TAB of the premium/benefit if you win your bet: $3.75 for France but only $0.16 for NZ. In the end I deleted that to keep it simple but forgot to change the figures.

France have a very good record against us. Only Australia and South Africa have done better. France have a 2 in 4 (50%) winning record against us at the World Cup, about 1 in 3 (31%) in all games, and only 1 in 7 (14%) since 2000. I'd say the TAB odds still look attractive. Plus a French win could ameliorate the pain of NZ losing.

tdgeek

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#1408260 17-Oct-2015 15:39

All the news has been about this match. And because of the past, but this isn't the past, past matches are past. We should be clear favourites, but 1.16 is very hot. Two things to me spring to mind. We haven't looked great against lesser sides, errors. And the French have noting to lose, they can throw the kitchen sink at us. The pressure on us, do we run the ball, or stay safe and kick away possession in order to keep them away from our line. Is that playing not to lose?

The TAB sees it as a 12 point game, the odds 1.87 are the same for both sides on the Points Start option. AB's give a 12.5 start and win is 1.87 and if France starts 12.5 ahead and win , its
So, if its a 12 point game 1.16 to 4.75 seems too low for us.

Oh well, go AB's.

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#1408264 17-Oct-2015 15:47

Perenaras career with abs effecitvely over.Grant fox has stated that there was 3 places for halfbacks and unfortunately tkb is the 2nd choice now and that they are going to stick with him as they want a similiar player to smith.
This really bothers me

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Hammerer

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#1408265 17-Oct-2015 16:02

If he is there as a backup goal kicker then he might have been number 3 even when Kerr-Barlow was injured.

I think that Perenara has been disappointing as an All Black. My impression is that he needs to think more clearly about his options taking. What do other's think as my assessment is very tentative?

tdgeek

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#1408299 17-Oct-2015 17:18

Scorelines gents?

Are we seeing a defensive kicking game, to reduce the chance of French tries and penalties?

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#1408302 17-Oct-2015 17:21

Kieran Read said they are going all out to run the ball and run the French off the park.
I'm not sure a misquote or jester.
For me, if 10 plays well we will be home and sailing, if 10 is directionless the French have a 50-50 chance.

blair003

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#1408307 17-Oct-2015 17:32

ludez: Perenaras career with abs effecitvely over.Grant fox has stated that there was 3 places for halfbacks and unfortunately tkb is the 2nd choice now and that they are going to stick with him as they want a similiar player to smith.
This really bothers me

This doesn't make sense. If Grant Fox says there are three places for halfbacks and TJP is one of the three, how is his career over? Also how about injuries?

blair003

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#1408309 17-Oct-2015 17:36

tdgeek: Scorelines gents?

Are we seeing a defensive kicking game, to reduce the chance of French tries and penalties?

My head says AB's by 20 points, maybe 13-33. If the French win it will be by 4 or less.

I think the best thing for us would be to grind out a close, ugly win in a tight game. If we beat them by 20 points it could make it a bit harder for us to improve the following week and everyone outside the camp will talk everything up, forgetting that whatever happens vs France won't matter in the next game should we get to the next game.

ludez

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#1408310 17-Oct-2015 17:37

blair003:
ludez: Perenaras career with abs effecitvely over.Grant fox has stated that there was 3 places for halfbacks and unfortunately tkb is the 2nd choice now and that they are going to stick with him as they want a similiar player to smith.
This really bothers me

This doesn't make sense. If Grant Fox says there are three places for halfbacks and TJP is one of the three, how is his career over? Also how about injuries?

I derped i meant two places for halfback.
Of course given an injury happens he will replace them but as of right now hes not in the running at all in the abs coaching minds

blair003

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#1408311 17-Oct-2015 17:40

I expect we will see a lot more kicking for territory. I would call it a smart numbers game rather than defensive though.

I expect to see the allblack scrum under pressure - struggling to win our own ball on occasion and possibly losing one or two. We will also put more numbers into the ruck in the first 20 with a lot more intensity at the breakdown than we have seen in most games this year.

blair003

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#1408313 17-Oct-2015 17:43

ludez:
blair003:
ludez: Perenaras career with abs effecitvely over.Grant fox has stated that there was 3 places for halfbacks and unfortunately tkb is the 2nd choice now and that they are going to stick with him as they want a similiar player to smith.
This really bothers me

This doesn't make sense. If Grant Fox says there are three places for halfbacks and TJP is one of the three, how is his career over? Also how about injuries?

I derped i meant two places for halfback.
Of course given an injury happens he will replace them but as of right now hes not in the running at all in the abs coaching minds

Yeah TKB was our second choice before his injury so he will need a bad game to give TJP a chance... unless we go for a different game plan or someone gets a bit knocked around.

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