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  # 1941327 17-Jan-2018 10:02
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6FIEND:

 

tdgeek:

 

6FIEND:

 

Don't worry, they've already started walking back that flagship policy.

 

Labour has previously indicated that KiwiBuild will ramp up to 16,000 homes within their first term before building over 10,000 a year in order to reach 100,000 in a decade.  "In the first half of next year we'll have a number of sites where the first KiwiBuild homes will be built," Twyford said.  "I would hope we would be turning the key in the front door of KiwiBuild homes some time in the middle of next year, but that will be a real stretch."

 

They only need to deliver 16,000 homes between mid next (this) year and the end of their term.

 

That's only 20 a day.  Every single day.  And they can then quietly bury the policy at the 2020 election.

 

 

IIRC that post was day one. So, if we plan to do stuff, with no planning, on day one, thats a worry. Forget about planning, business partners, stock, infrastructure. TBH I was really surprised by that post. 

 

 

I'm not sure I grasp the point that you're trying to make?  (Are you implying that I am suggesting that Labour shouldn't plan to meet its targets?)

 

If it helps to provide context for my post.  I was trying to convey that:

 

a) Labour set a target, as a headline policy, to build 100,000 homes.  (an average of 10k per year)

 

b) Labour starts making a plan for this, and decides that the target will be 16k in the first 3 years  (14k short of the required run rate)  ...but will make that up by building at a faster rate later on.

 

c) Labour estimate that they will (at best) open the door to the first of the new houses mid 2018, leaving only 27months to build the remaining 15,999 houses.

 

d) This means that Labour will still need to deliver 20 homes per day for the second half of their first term, and I believe that the chances of that happening are almost nil.

 

 

My mistake, I latched onto a post made a while ago, a day or so after the election, that no houses had been built!

 

Yes its a lofty target. How many houses did National build? None I assume, as its not the Govts job to build houses. But someone needs to build them as the economy we have had and do have isn't interested. So if Labour build some houses, and it ramps up over time, no doubt it will fall short, but at least some are built that would not have been. Now, if the building industry is busy now, as was stated here, hopefully they will build more. The change to the LVR will help, that needs to really incentivise building over buying, it needs to be a no brainer to build. If we do need immigration thats fine, they made no rule to ban desired immigration, but clearly the immigration we have had hasnt helped. They just go to school, get PR and thats it, or lay fibre. 


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  # 1941340 17-Jan-2018 10:13
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Pumpedd:

 

networkn:

 

6FIEND:

 

d) This means that Labour will still need to deliver 20 homes per day for the second half of their first term, and I believe that the chances of that happening are almost nil.

 

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11909977

 

Our biggest construction company spent weeks "preparing" this house and then got *1* up in a day. (There are caveats as this house wasn't "livable" at that point).

 

I have also been told by multiple reputable sources that we have neither the manpower, qualified people, nor capacity to produce 20 additional houses in NZ without significant increase to immigration and even then, it would be more than 5 years before it was able to be put into motion.

 

I am told that the 5 largest construction companies are booked solid with work for at least 3 more years and so they couldn't possibly do this work. 

 

Another thought, 20,000 identical houses, created for low-income people, sounds like a recipe for crime-ridden dirty slums to be created. 

 

Sounds like a Trump type promise to me.

 

 

 

Its a TWyford promise..he is just as big a chump as Trump.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With that I might bow out, this thread is also becoming like the Trump one. Too silly to bother with


 
 
 
 


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  # 1941341 17-Jan-2018 10:15
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I still want to see the Business case that shows what profit the taxpayer will get from all this unicorn house building.





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  # 1941344 17-Jan-2018 10:22
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Geektastic: I still want to see the Business case that shows what profit the taxpayer will get from all this unicorn house building.

 

You won't..its politics. We have been short of housing for 100 years..it wont change. 

 

I am a little concerned as there is already massive building programmes underway in Auckland that are slowly coming on stream. I assume that Labour will take credit for this in a years time.

 

If Labour actually find a way to build all these extra houses the prices must plummet as it will cause a surplus. Very dangerous.


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  # 1941489 17-Jan-2018 12:57
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rjt123: Is $600k actually affordable for most families?

 

Probably not ... but they don't need to sell to lower income families.  They said they will ballot houses and income won't be an eligibility criteria. 

 

If labour can sell something like 50,000 new house and land packages for $600k or less (even if they have to do so at a loss), that will push the value of older homes down even further and possibly effect rentals as well for a while.

 

 





Mike

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  # 1941661 17-Jan-2018 19:42
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Ahhh, the days when the Govt built houses...  Waitangirua and Naenae come to mind (I'm sure Auckland has some suburbs built by the Govt too)... How many years did they take to become middle class, low crime areas? 50?

 

 

 

Or when they try to make middle class suburbs... Flaxmere.... 

 

 

 

Why would they suddenly get it right now?

 

 

 

 

 

If the Govt want to build that many houses, they need Levitt & Sons, They built 30 a day.  (Don't really, but it's an important history lesson).


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  # 1941706 17-Jan-2018 21:44
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blakamin:

 

Or when they try to make middle class suburbs... Flaxmere.... 

 

 

I have friends who live in Flaxmere and I have spent a lot of time there. Like a lot of places, it has some bad areas and many better ones. It does not deserve the reputation given it by people who have never been there. It is by no means a bad place to live. Don't believe everything you read.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


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  # 1941717 17-Jan-2018 22:34
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Conversation today with the MD of one of the larger building companies in this region

 

 

 

"Hi, I wanted to talk to you about a building project on our house."

 

 

 

(laughs) "What year did you want it done?"

 

 

 

"Surely you have plenty of capacity? After all, the government thinks you can build tens of thousands of houses!"

 

 

 

"Yeah...right. No idea where they think the skilled labour is coming from to do that. Anyway, we're pretty booked up for the next couple of years, but I can have our Construction Manager come and scope the work and tell you if we can help if you like."






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  # 1941735 17-Jan-2018 22:47
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From the Herald today - and as predicted here ages ago!

 

 

 

"At home, our own Government has unwittingly become a participant in the process of "setting market rent", as landlords across Wellington immediately lifted rents to match the increases in student allowance introduced this year."






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  # 1941739 17-Jan-2018 23:03
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Geektastic:

 

From the Herald today - and as predicted here ages ago!

 

 

 

"At home, our own Government has unwittingly become a participant in the process of "setting market rent", as landlords across Wellington immediately lifted rents to match the increases in student allowance introduced this year."

 

 

They set that policy on about Day one without thinking at all! 


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  # 1941745 17-Jan-2018 23:50
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Pumpedd:

 

Geektastic:

 

From the Herald today - and as predicted here ages ago!

 

 

 

"At home, our own Government has unwittingly become a participant in the process of "setting market rent", as landlords across Wellington immediately lifted rents to match the increases in student allowance introduced this year."

 

 

They set that policy on about Day one without thinking at all! 

 

 

 

 

Labour: transferring your taxes to landlords since ages ago...! tongue-out






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  # 1941882 18-Jan-2018 10:32
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And the Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again....

 

 

 

"Auckland's supply of rental properties has dropped 35 per cent while the median weekly rent is predicted to spike to an all-time high.

 

The number of rental properties coming on and off the Auckland market is down 35 per cent compared to December 2016 and rental prices in the region are up 3.9 per cent, according to the latest Trade Me Property Rental Index.

 

Trade Me head of property Nigel Jeffries said he expected to see the median weekly rent in Auckland to hit a new record in January."

 


Edit - perhaps that should be the Law of Unintended (But Entirely Predictable) Consequences!






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  # 1942021 18-Jan-2018 14:08
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tdgeek:

 

Yes its a lofty target. How many houses did National build? None I assume, as its not the Govts job to build houses. But someone needs to build them as the economy we have had and do have isn't interested. So if Labour build some houses, and it ramps up over time, no doubt it will fall short, but at least some are built that would not have been. Now, if the building industry is busy now, as was stated here, hopefully they will build more. The change to the LVR will help, that needs to really incentivise building over buying, it needs to be a no brainer to build. If we do need immigration thats fine, they made no rule to ban desired immigration, but clearly the immigration we have had hasnt helped. They just go to school, get PR and thats it, or lay fibre. 

 

 

You have some.. Interesting views. You are damning of one Government for not meeting goals or doing enough to help but when the one you voted for outrightly lies (or is so incompetent they couldn't see it was blatantly nigh impossible, which is much more likely) you find a justification for that.

 

Some better than none? No accountability for talking a bunch of nonsense. Seems like no matter how bad things get, you will just shrug your shoulder and say "National wouldn't have done any better" ? 

 

It's not JUST a matter of having skilled Labour, it's a matter of materials, construction equipment etc.

 

There is a countrywide shortage of cranes.

 

 


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  # 1942114 18-Jan-2018 18:18
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Rikkitic:

 

blakamin:

 

Or when they try to make middle class suburbs... Flaxmere.... 

 

 

I have friends who live in Flaxmere and I have spent a lot of time there. Like a lot of places, it has some bad areas and many better ones. It does not deserve the reputation given it by people who have never been there. It is by no means a bad place to live. Don't believe everything you read.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I lived "down the road", and spent many teenage years in Hawke's Bay in general... I know exactly what flaxmere is like, thanks...


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  # 1943295 19-Jan-2018 10:00
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So the Government is backtracking on their tree promises now. I can't recall an election where more promises were made and flagship promises broken. We are in Trump territory for things said vs things delivered. 

 

I am wondering what possible justification the people here will come up with today for making this "ok"?

 

Surely this pretty much amounts to Fraud.

 

 


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