What will happen to National now?

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Mad Scientist
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#2671355 10-Mar-2021 22:36

Jas777:

Not working now, but might in 2 years or more likely 5.

A mass shooting and a pandemic have put National back 1 election cycle than normal but when it finally all fits into place it might be a bigger movement than a lot think it will be.

Once it goes back to normal politics, house prices, food prices, power, rates, fuel, etc rather than a pandemic or shooting then ..... will be seen as just a PR person.

I doubt it. Being mentored by Helen Clark, and vs the aforementioned no-names ... I wonder who will win the popularity contest.

The elections are all a popularity contest.

GV27

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#2671386 11-Mar-2021 06:44

Batman:

I doubt it. Being mentored by Helen Clark, and vs the aforementioned no-names ... I wonder who will win the popularity contest.

The elections are all a popularity contest.

People in NZ get bored after three terms of one party and vote differently just for the hell of it.

If Ardern/Robertson et al continue to miss the mark in terms of housing, living costs and other key parts of their election platform then people will turn on them. I really don't think 'mentored by Helen Clark' is that much of a draw tbh. People eventually got tired of her and they'll get tired of Ardern if Labour continue to underachieve.

At that point National just has to vaguely look remotely capable of governing and they'll romp in. That's just how NZ works.

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#2671388 11-Mar-2021 06:55

People in NZ also like free money (who doesn't). As long as a govt finds ways to give out free money every 3 years they will stay in power. Sure if they run out of free money then people could vote differently.

The popularity contest isn't just with voters remember, you have to convince a minor party to join you if you don't get 50%. So the aforementioned makes being thrown around vs Ms Ardern... Yeah we'll see who joins who

tdgeek

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#2671390 11-Mar-2021 07:08

GV27:

People in NZ get bored after three terms of one party and vote differently just for the hell of it.

If Ardern/Robertson et al continue to miss the mark in terms of housing, living costs and other key parts of their election platform then people will turn on them. I really don't think 'mentored by Helen Clark' is that much of a draw tbh. People eventually got tired of her and they'll get tired of Ardern if Labour continue to underachieve.

At that point National just has to vaguely look remotely capable of governing and they'll romp in. That's just how NZ works.

Thats pretty much it. Thats why National lost and why Labour will lose and why National will lose again, its the usual cycle. Housing and the economy and everything else will amble along and remain problematic and people get tired of it and seek the next solution, which will remain the same

tdgeek

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#2671391 11-Mar-2021 07:10

Batman: People in NZ also like free money (who doesn't). As long as a govt finds ways to give out free money every 3 years they will stay in power. Sure if they run out of free money then people could vote differently.

The popularity contest isn't just with voters remember, you have to convince a minor party to join you if you don't get 50%. So the aforementioned makes being thrown around vs Ms Ardern... Yeah we'll see who joins who

I dont see or get free money. Two elections ago there was free money offered, but it didnt work.

arcon

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#2671434 11-Mar-2021 09:10

GV27:

If Ardern/Robertson et al continue to miss the mark in terms of housing, living costs and other key parts of their election platform then people will turn on them. I really don't think 'mentored by Helen Clark' is that much of a draw tbh. People eventually got tired of her and they'll get tired of Ardern if Labour continue to underachieve.

This ignores the fact that Key himself was more popular & well liked than Clark leading up to 2008 - the same leadership dynamic doesn't apply today and certainly won't get National in if they don't get a new face.

Those voters are not coming back just because houses get more expensive... achievement is a perception and also varies by individual circumstance - a majority do not feel Labour is underachieving at all.

GV27

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#2671457 11-Mar-2021 09:40

arcon:

a majority do not feel Labour is underachieving at all.

Reading extremely specific things into election or polling (there hasn't been one since before Xmas, btw) is fraught with risk.

I can simultaneously think the Government has failed to deliver on housing reform, light rail and acted in bad faith over Covid reports and the subsequent incursions into the community but still want them to be the government because their lack of action makes me richer through my house value constantly increasing.

It's a fringe example, but people don't always vote for the party that is the best at doing what they said they would.

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tdgeek

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#2671461 11-Mar-2021 09:52

GV27:

Reading extremely specific things into election or polling (there hasn't been one since before Xmas, btw) is fraught with risk.

I can simultaneously think the Government has failed to deliver on housing reform, light rail and acted in bad faith over Covid reports and the subsequent incursions into the community but still want them to be the government because their lack of action makes me richer through my house value constantly increasing.

It's a fringe example, but people don't always vote for the party that is the best at doing what they said they would.

Why are they the only Govt thats blamed for the housing crisis? Did they create it or inherit it? Its a great free pass for those that were there and did nothjoing and denied it, now whine about it

GV27

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#2671466 11-Mar-2021 09:57

tdgeek:

Its a great free pass for those that were there and did nothjoing and denied it, now whine about it

Which party is this referring to again? 😄

quickymart

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#2671602 11-Mar-2021 11:17

I always thought National knew about the housing crisis for most of their 9 years in power, and did nothing about it until just before the 2017 election, when suddenly they realised there was a shortage, then started making noise about it. Labour went on to win office and inherit said housing crisis.

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#2671612 11-Mar-2021 11:37

quickymart:

I always thought National knew about the housing crisis for most of their 9 years in power, and did nothing about it until just before the 2017 election, when suddenly they realised there was a shortage, then started making noise about it. Labour went on to win office and inherit said housing crisis.

Yep, that's correct, except it was also denied, by Bill. 2nd or 3rd debate. Its hard to fix, no matter who is in power but all this housing crisis being an issue only now is a joke

Batman

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#2671619 11-Mar-2021 12:00

tdgeek:
Batman: People in NZ also like free money (who doesn't). As long as a govt finds ways to give out free money every 3 years they will stay in power. Sure if they run out of free money then people could vote differently.

The popularity contest isn't just with voters remember, you have to convince a minor party to join you if you don't get 50%. So the aforementioned makes being thrown around vs Ms Ardern... Yeah we'll see who joins who

I dont see or get free money. Two elections ago there was free money offered, but it didnt work.

2 elections ago. Short term memory is not helping. Let me see...

Free university, more family allowance, more student allowance, cheap houses... Actually here's all the free money, vs meagre cheap talk tax cuts, I wonder who got in power

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/10/what-labour-promised.amp.html?espv=1

allio

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#2671686 11-Mar-2021 14:36

Batman:

2 elections ago. Short term memory is not helping. Let me see...

Free university, more family allowance, more student allowance, cheap houses... Actually here's all the free money, vs meagre cheap talk tax cuts, I wonder who got in power

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/10/what-labour-promised.amp.html?espv=1

All of that was announced before Jacinda took over from Andrew Little and led to, if anything, Labour sinking even further in the polls. Some of them had been announced prior to the last election (Kiwibuild). That wasn't why they won in 2017.

tdgeek

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#2671687 11-Mar-2021 14:43

Batman:
2 elections ago. Short term memory is not helping. Let me see...

Free university, more family allowance, more student allowance, cheap houses... Actually here's all the free money, vs meagre cheap talk tax cuts, I wonder who got in power

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/10/what-labour-promised.amp.html?espv=1

National's $2000 tax cuts was the big news then, For everyone

quickymart

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#2671695 11-Mar-2021 14:56

tdgeek:

National's $2000 tax cuts was the big news then, For everyone

From: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/03/06/94695/joyce-bows-out

[Steven] Joyce largely escaped another Hager controversy during the 2014 election. Hager's Dirty Politics book embroiled Collins instead and in 2016 Joyce was elevated to Minister of Finance, following Key’s resignation and English’s subsequent appointment as Prime Minister. His budget will be remembered for the goodies handed out to voters in an election year after years of tight spending. Joyce announced tax cuts through a realignment of the income tax thresholds. But the government didn’t last long enough to see them implemented.

I vaguely remember it, but also remember this:

Then Joyce claimed he had found a $11.7 billion hole in Labour’s budget proposals. The claim was universally rubbished and Joyce was castigated for playing fast and loose with facts in the age of ‘fake news’.

That's what sticks more in my mind. Plus, he lost.

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