What will happen to National now?

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#3094784 25-Jun-2023 17:49

Technofreak:

I haven’t had time yet to read the articles you have linked. I will say one thing, I expect I could find counter view points to those articles. We could go back and forth ad infinitum. In realty the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Sorry, but TBH this sounds like a National bite. No facts, just assumptions, portrayed as close to fact

I have friends who will vote Labour no matter what, or who will vote National, no matter what. Thats fine, you will always find that in a democracy. The trick are the swing voters.

tdgeek

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#3094789 25-Jun-2023 17:57

Technofreak:

My point was a wage increase without being coupled to some form of productivity improvement is just a futile merry-go-round. It just adds to inflation which doesn’t benefit those people the increase is supposed to benefit but the government gets a bigger tax take.

As has been posted there has been a producitivity gain, years on years. Where are the wage increases? Perhaps we need a stat that states the productivity gain which ten cause a Muldoon General Wage Increase? That seems fair. Now I have no issue with businesses as businesses drive this country but when a minimum wage increase of "stuff all" is announced, the world ends

Perhaps we need, like CPI, a standard annual declaration of productivity increase, aka GDP, then everyone gets a national wage increase (up to that level if you have not already achieved that)

To me that seem very fair. GDP up 3% everyone gets a minimum of 3%. If it was 0.4% or 4%, same applies.

tdgeek

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#3094792 25-Jun-2023 18:04

Technofreak:

If you have proof that an arbitrary wage increase, that you seem to be a fan of, doesn’t increase inflation thus eroding any benefits I’d be interested to see it.

Sorry to be nagging

An arbitrary wage increase will increase inflation. Fact. So does an arbitrary price increase. We have no "arbitrary" price increases, but we do have price increases, so where do they sit? They may well be due to Covid demand increases, or Ukraine induced fuel increases (which impact virtually everything) but those two facets have already been dismissed by National people here, as minimal, as primarily caused by the current Government

So we should just cease price increases? No price increases and no wage increases = sorted

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#3094793 25-Jun-2023 18:06

Technofreak:

Wages have gone backwards with respect to the necessities of life no matter which team, Red or Blue is in charge.

Also don’t get me started on some of the inequities we have today. How a CEO (business or government) is worth several multiples of the rank and file workers beats me. This has been happening since the 1980’s with governments of both hues.

Correct. But as this is election year.......

tdgeek

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#3094797 25-Jun-2023 18:17

Technofreak:

You complain that houses are getting unaffordable. The biggest increase in house prices over the last 30 years has occurred over the past 6 years and before that the biggest increase was during the early to mid 2000’s. Both periods when National wasn’t in power. You complain about Nationals policies but fail to acknowledge a significant contribution to the issue you complain about was the result of actions of the Red team.

Again sorry, but that is BS. House prices have been rising for decades. Slightly annoying but thats ok. Well prior to the latest red team, this has been well discussed. You may have seen Bill asked about this on a 2017 leaders debate, he said nothing and smiled. That did it for me. You recognise an issue and you face it. Or not.

GV27

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#3094814 25-Jun-2023 19:59

tdgeek:

Again sorry, but that is BS. House prices have been rising for decades. Slightly annoying but thats ok. Well prior to the latest red team, this has been well discussed. You may have seen Bill asked about this on a 2017 leaders debate, he said nothing and smiled. That did it for me. You recognise an issue and you face it. Or not.

...which would you rather have, Bill English's non-crisis crisis or the grossly bloated one we got from the people who were elected with a specific policy to fix it?

Remember, the entire attack platform used against National "refuses to accept there is a crisis" was from people who were acting like a plan to build 100,000 houses in ten years as a) doable and b) something they could do. I fail to see how that is not an order of magnitude worse than 'just not doing much about it' in the first place.

I think we'd all kill for 2017 house prices, realistically.

Technofreak

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#3094840 25-Jun-2023 20:41

tdgeek:

Technofreak:

You complain that houses are getting unaffordable. The biggest increase in house prices over the last 30 years has occurred over the past 6 years and before that the biggest increase was during the early to mid 2000’s. Both periods when National wasn’t in power. You complain about Nationals policies but fail to acknowledge a significant contribution to the issue you complain about was the result of actions of the Red team.

Again sorry, but that is BS. House prices have been rising for decades. Slightly annoying but thats ok. Well prior to the latest red team, this has been well discussed. You may have seen Bill asked about this on a 2017 leaders debate, he said nothing and smiled. That did it for me. You recognise an issue and you face it. Or not.

Yes they have but the steepest increases have been on the Red teams watch

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#3094876 26-Jun-2023 06:27

Technofreak:

Yes they have but the steepest increases have been on the Red teams watch

Actually in most first world countries, the same happened, for reasons that are obvious. Labour wasnt running those countries.

Unaffordability was already rife everywhere, creeping up over decades. Had Covid not happened along with its near zero interest rates we wouldn't have what we have today, but the ongoing trend would have continued. Still unaffordable.

tdgeek

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#3094878 26-Jun-2023 06:33

GV27:

...which would you rather have, Bill English's non-crisis crisis or the grossly bloated one we got from the people who were elected with a specific policy to fix it?

Remember, the entire attack platform used against National "refuses to accept there is a crisis" was from people who were acting like a plan to build 100,000 houses in ten years as a) doable and b) something they could do. I fail to see how that is not an order of magnitude worse than 'just not doing much about it' in the first place.

I think we'd all kill for 2017 house prices, realistically.

Ignore it
Try to fix it and not build the 100,000

One of these is a 100% guaranteed fail. But if ignoring it and smiling, aka Bill, is an order of magnitude less than someone giving it a go, well, not much to offer on that. 2017 house prices? Had Covid not happened, then prices which were unaffordable then would have continued to creep up. But lets ignore hw decades of inaction by both parties and lets ignore the Covid interest rate effect and run an attack platform...

Given that many here see the "other" factors as minimal, and all about Labour, there is an election soon, should not be too hard to fix.

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#3094880 26-Jun-2023 07:11

Technofreak:

Yes they have but the steepest increases have been on the Red teams watch

They seem to have managed a nice steep decline at the end too!

A casual look at that graph would suggest that external influences have more of an impact, GFC slowing things down, COVID ramping it up.

The thing for me is it will always be who, coulda, shoulda type thing. Be more restrictive during Covid and let business go it alone and see how many tip over, or do the wage subsidy and hope for the best.

I think that's one thing I find frustrating with politics as a rule, is that it would be refreshing for a change to have the opposition come and say, oh, we agree with this policy, it's a good step, I think we may have done it like this perhaps. Rather than simply taking the opposing view constantly.

Edit. It would be cool to see that graph overlaid with interest rates.

tdgeek

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#3094881 26-Jun-2023 07:34

mudguard:

Technofreak:

Yes they have but the steepest increases have been on the Red teams watch

They seem to have managed a nice steep decline at the end too!

A casual look at that graph would suggest that external influences have more of an impact, GFC slowing things down, COVID ramping it up.

The thing for me is it will always be who, coulda, shoulda type thing. Be more restrictive during Covid and let business go it alone and see how many tip over, or do the wage subsidy and hope for the best.

I think that's one thing I find frustrating with politics as a rule, is that it would be refreshing for a change to have the opposition come and say, oh, we agree with this policy, it's a good step, I think we may have done it like this perhaps. Rather than simply taking the opposing view constantly.

Edit. It would be cool to see that graph overlaid with interest rates.

The issue there is if you agree, the voters will play it safe and keep the encumbent in. If you oppose, say so, and what you would do, but the latter isn't often stated. Thus an Opposition will always be at a disadvantage. They rely on Government failings or issues, but you rarely hear about the alternative. If there is a difficult problem, the alternative likely isn't going to be great reading, so best keep quiet and ride the wave of bagging the Government . Then, the voters don't actually have a choice of A or B based on details. It ends up being based on psychology, create enough media smoke, the public will believe there is a fire, then you get the votes and we get a new Government who will be faced with the same difficult problem but just blow it off as blaming the other. End of the day, new Government, same problems, nothing changes. because its just too hard. Invariably, fixing stuff costs money, where does that come from?

GV27

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#3094883 26-Jun-2023 07:40

mudguard:

They seem to have managed a nice steep decline at the end too!

A casual look at that graph would suggest that external influences have more of an impact, GFC slowing things down, COVID ramping it up.

You're looking at huge spikes in something that was already, at the time of GFC, past the Demographia defintion of 'unaffordable'.

External, global events do have an effect. That's why they're 'global' events.

But stupid stuff like ignoring the tax aspect of huge numbers of Kiwis using residential property as a de facto retirement scheme for tax-free gains, massive population increases driven by migration well above international averages and the huge performance and cultural issues around our central bank have all meant those swings have gotten wilder and never returned to a proper baseline. It's taken the fastest rates rises in history to break the channel on that graph and we only needed that because we sat on our hands for so long and were so slow with initially hiking rates to begin with. Remember when inflation was 'transitory'? Grant Robertson hopes you don't.

The spikes may be external, but the relentless march upwards is all down to lazy governments not wanting to piss off the electorate because too many people are in on the gag.

tdgeek

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#3094886 26-Jun-2023 07:51

GV27:

The spikes may be external, but the relentless march upwards is all down to lazy governments not wanting to piss off the electorate because too many people are in on the gag.

Yep. There are many gags. Business want low wages, employees want higher wages, everyone wants lower taxes, everyone wants everything fixed but doesn't want higher taxes to pay for it, and if we avoid hiking taxes, not prepared to wait

GV27

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#3094887 26-Jun-2023 08:01

tdgeek:

Yep. There are many gags. Business want low wages, employees want higher wages, everyone wants lower taxes, everyone wants everything fixed but doesn't want higher taxes to pay for it, and if we avoid hiking taxes, not prepared to wait

The problem is that (especially at a time of high inflation) we are paying higher and higher taxes every day.

Governments just don't want to own up to the fact that they've been helping themselves to more and more of your wages without an actual electoral mandate and the actual cost of the bloated, unaccountable monstrosity that is the State, which is incapable of producing anything but its own relentless expansion.

tdgeek

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#3094891 26-Jun-2023 08:15

GV27:

is that (especially at a time of high inflation) we are paying higher and higher taxes every day.

Governments just don't want to own up to the fact that they've been helping themselves to more and more of your wages without an actual electoral mandate and the actual cost of the bloated, unaccountable monstrosity that is the State, which is incapable of producing anything but its own relentless expansion.

Agree.

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