What will happen to National now?

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#2671701 11-Mar-2021 15:07

quickymart:

I vaguely remember it, but also remember this:

Then Joyce claimed he had found a $11.7 billion hole in Labour’s budget proposals. The claim was universally rubbished and Joyce was castigated for playing fast and loose with facts in the age of ‘fake news’.

That's what sticks more in my mind. Plus, he lost.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cameron-bagrie-why-steven-joyce-was-telling-the-truth-about-the-fiscal-hole/TQZCYWAOOUO4XNZZZWA54G5SAI/

The 'Fiscal Hole' as Joyce put it was sort of real. I say 'sort of' because I have no doubts he would have employed the same tactics as Labour ended up doing to hide it if it happened on his watch.

But his point wasn't anywhere as stupid as it seemed, given how willingly people accepted Labour's patently absurd and subsequently unworkable ideas like Kiwibuild and Light Rail deliveries.

The problem National have is Joyce was a pretty smart guy who could read a balance sheet and a budget and might have gotten his point across with some better lines about what he was seeing in Labour's budget. Now National don't have anyone capable of seeing the problem in the first place. Hell, their last election plan had its own fiscal hole that was walked back on in a very public way.

The talent might be thin on the ground in Labour but it's definitely heading in the wrong direction when it comes to National these days too. I still don't know what their actual plan is or what they would do differently - and I'd be their core demographic.

quickymart

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#2671706 11-Mar-2021 15:18

Totally off-topic, but I had no idea he also started Radioworks as well.

From memory, after the election when he didn't get to be Finance Minister again under Simon Bridges, he packed a sad and left.

Like many politicians who become used to government, Joyce did not take easily to leaving the Beehive. He was said to have performed poorly in last week’s leadership election, a fairly strong indication that his caucus no longer saw him as the answer to its problems after the Peters debacle.

Joyce confirmed Simon Bridges had offered him a front bench position, but not the finance portfolio, as good an indication as any that the party leadership wants a break from the Key-English-Joyce past, even as it seeks to talk up their economic credentials.

allio

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Ultimate Geek

#2671720 11-Mar-2021 15:45

GV27:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cameron-bagrie-why-steven-joyce-was-telling-the-truth-about-the-fiscal-hole/TQZCYWAOOUO4XNZZZWA54G5SAI/

The 'Fiscal Hole' as Joyce put it was sort of real. I say 'sort of' because I have no doubts he would have employed the same tactics as Labour ended up doing to hide it if it happened on his watch.

Like most other right wing commentators, Bagrie allowed Joyce's claim to become so diluted that it was meaningless. It was originally extremely specific, alleging that Labour had failed to account for $11.7b of spending through an elementary accounting mistake on their budget - specifically, not including increases in operating allowances for years beyond 2018. That was disproven within days (that money was accounted elsewhere), but the goalposts got moved again and again and eventually it just became "the books will get worse under Labour". You'll note that there's no mention of the phrase "operating allowance" in Bagrie's column. He's basically just talking about economic conditions (and consequently government forecasts) getting worse. You'll also note that National has conveniently removed the original press release from their website...

Joyce was a dirty operator, not some financial genius. He pulled the exact same trick in 2011 and 2014, and it worked because Labour was such a mess. In 2017 he finally got pushback and his claim fell apart almost immediately.

GV27

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#2671723 11-Mar-2021 16:00

allio:

GV27:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cameron-bagrie-why-steven-joyce-was-telling-the-truth-about-the-fiscal-hole/TQZCYWAOOUO4XNZZZWA54G5SAI/

The 'Fiscal Hole' as Joyce put it was sort of real. I say 'sort of' because I have no doubts he would have employed the same tactics as Labour ended up doing to hide it if it happened on his watch.

Like most other right wing commentators, Bagrie allowed Joyce's claim to become so diluted that it was meaningless. It was originally extremely specific, alleging that Labour had failed to account for $11.7b of spending through an elementary accounting mistake on their budget - specifically, not including increases in operating allowances for years beyond 2018. That was disproven within days (that money was accounted elsewhere), but the goalposts got moved again and again and eventually it just became "the books will get worse under Labour". You'll note that there's no mention of the phrase "operating allowance" in Bagrie's column. He's basically just talking about economic conditions (and consequently government forecasts) getting worse. You'll also note that National has conveniently removed the original press release from their website...

Ironic enough then, given that's effectively the mistake National made in 2020 but in reverse (double-counting revenue, from memory).

Although I'd note during the 2017 campaign itself, Bagrie himself was pretty dismissive of Joyce's claim of a fiscal hole:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/338759/national-s-fiscal-claims-pure-fiction-economists

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie also suggested Mr Joyce went too far in saying there was a "hole" and said that term was "too strong".

But he did say it would be a challenge for Labour to govern within its budget.

"They just haven't left themselves any money in the kitty for the 2019 and 2020 budget.

allio

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Ultimate Geek

#2671794 11-Mar-2021 16:49

GV27:

Ironic enough then, given that's effectively the mistake National made in 2020 but in reverse (double-counting revenue, from memory).

I chuckled at that too. Though I think it was overblown - the mistake itself was pretty minor and understandable. If not for the recent memory of Joyce's fiscal hole I don't think it would have dominated the news like it did.

Although I'd note during the 2017 campaign itself, Bagrie himself was pretty dismissive of Joyce's claim of a fiscal hole:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/338759/national-s-fiscal-claims-pure-fiction-economists

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie also suggested Mr Joyce went too far in saying there was a "hole" and said that term was "too strong".

But he did say it would be a challenge for Labour to govern within its budget.

"They just haven't left themselves any money in the kitty for the 2019 and 2020 budget.

You're right - he came out against it like everybody else did, but was otherwise pretty negative about Labour's budget (as in the second part of the quote). And then...

2018: 5.5b surplus

2019: 7.5b surplus

What's that saying? Something about economists existing to make the weathermen look good?

GV27

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#2672112 12-Mar-2021 06:59

allio:

You're right - he came out against it like everybody else did, but was otherwise pretty negative about Labour's budget (as in the second part of the quote). And then...

2018: 5.5b surplus

2019: 7.5b surplus

What's that saying? Something about economists existing to make the weathermen look good?

In my experience, economists look for the most complex and convoluted solution or explanation - the more sophisticated, the better. TOP's continued existence is a testament to this.

As far as surpluses go, at least $2bn of that surplus should have been sucked up by Light Rail work that never happened, but should have been started if they were ever going to have anything working this year (or the North West, which never even had initial work completed, let alone a route or business case underway).

I think the full cost of Kiwibuild was actually allowed for - it was meant to be self-sustaining after the fist $2bn as houses were sold off.

And the government did well enough out of the extra revenue they get from taxing the inflation component, which it still does and has ruled out changing. I still can't believe National fumbled the argument about this under Bridges. It should be a slam dunk with the electorate.

You know National is in the poo when they can't articulate simple adjustments to tax policy in a clear enough way.

Handle9

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#2676312 18-Mar-2021 04:45

Does national really think it's attacks on Mallard will have any positive effect? Bridges just looks like a petulant school boy. It's really hard to see any point to this stuff. I guess it keeps Bridges in the news which is probably his goal.

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Jas777

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#2681796 27-Mar-2021 21:53

At the moment National should do nothing. The chances of winning the next election are based solely on housing.

Labour's biggest problem is keeping the extra 15 percent who voted for them happy. Which includes both the left and right side. Though in saying that why would they worry about the left side as the greens will do what they are told as can't go with anyone else.

The biggest problem Labour will have is if they get too 'control freaky' which was their downfall in 2008.

Batman

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#2681830 28-Mar-2021 07:13

Jas777:

At the moment National should do nothing.

correct

Batman

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#2681832 28-Mar-2021 07:15

Jas777:

The chances of winning the next election are based solely on housing.

depends on a few more things i reckon but only time will tell. if prices fall labour wins. if prices go up either can win.

GV27

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#2682419 29-Mar-2021 11:56

Let's be honest, it's not like National can do anything. They still don't have clear positions on migration, house prices or affordability. They don't know whether they want it to be easier for FHBs or whether they want to keep the party going while supply comes online, which could take years. And they definitely can't articulate an infrastructure plan that goes beyond "more roads in Auckland".

Until they can do those things, I won't vote for them. Easy.

Batman

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#2690776 11-Apr-2021 08:03

apparently they'll have new leaders soon.

apparently Luxon and Bridges

quickymart

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#2690810 11-Apr-2021 10:35

When is "soon", however? Before the next election?

Fred99

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#2690879 11-Apr-2021 14:27

An Ode for Christopher Luxon (from Victor Billot for Newsroom)

Supply side Jesus

I keep my faith separate from politics, always.
I keep it in this little compartment, most days.
Here in my briefcase, safely tucked away
from worldly things that might lead it astray.

Like annual reports or financial statements.
Or anything best kept down in the basement,
like that business with the Saudi Air Force
(the Big Guy upstairs told me no need for remorse.)

Now I am here: where others sweat and strive,
I appear out of the heavens. I just arrive.
I walk over water. I ascend into the light.
I am the saviour of the Centre Right.

While Judith hacks away for Team Blue
and Simon texts Speaker Trev: sux 2 B U,
I don’t engage in such rough and tumble.
I am more Godly, more pious, more humble.

Blessed are the meek. Blessed are the poor.
Blessed are tax free capital gains, I am sure.
But those poor will always be with us, I’m sad to say.
And now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to pray.

Handle9

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#2701338 3-May-2021 18:35

So Nationals solution to their crap polling is race baiting.

There's a way to discuss whether a Maori health authority is a good idea without racist dog whistling to all the closet red necks.

This isn't it.

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