What will happen to National now?

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#2587183 18-Oct-2020 18:19

tdgeek:

Robertson as DPM

No reason or benefit to give it to Shaw. I expect Greens and Maori party will be brought in as coalition partners, or C+S. Make a full team. No negotiations or concessions as they haven't learnt any, and not needed. Greens will need to focus on green not hard left and bring forward meaningful climate change measures.

Robertson isn't deputy leader of the Labour party. If Labour do that the Maori party will likely take 3-4 of the Maori seats at the next election.

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#2587185 18-Oct-2020 18:22

Dochart:
rugrat:

I’m wondering how much influence Act will have over National in future. They have gained big.

Lot of National supporters I knew dropped support for them when they saw they were planning on getting rid of legal minimums for breaks.

If Act has more influence there could be even bigger attacks on workers.

Even without that, with COVID 19 would still expect them to have lost, but they may have got some more votes.

National will come back, all parties after a long period start to get complacent and start making mistakes annoying the swing voter.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300092612/90day-trials-would-return-but-lunchtime-gone-by-lunchtime-under-national-small-business-policy

I don’t think National will have a chance for a very long time. I expect Jacinda Ardern to be Prime Minister till she retires at 65. People will continue to support Jacinda Ardern even when for the last 3 years most of their promises they did not deliver. If they fail to deliver their promises again, people will still vote for her.

I guess most people don’t really care if they fail to deliver on their promises.

This is the lie that National keeps telling its self, and was the point of the Hooton piece. Until National comes up with a reason to vote for them (as opposed to how they ran on "We aren't Labour, we were cheated" this time) they will struggle.

ACT and the Greens came up with an alternative vision. They gave people a reason to vote for them. Generally New Zealand votes for a party, not against one.

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#2587191 18-Oct-2020 19:00

Dochart:
rugrat:

I’m wondering how much influence Act will have over National in future. They have gained big.

Lot of National supporters I knew dropped support for them when they saw they were planning on getting rid of legal minimums for breaks.

If Act has more influence there could be even bigger attacks on workers.

Even without that, with COVID 19 would still expect them to have lost, but they may have got some more votes.

National will come back, all parties after a long period start to get complacent and start making mistakes annoying the swing voter.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300092612/90day-trials-would-return-but-lunchtime-gone-by-lunchtime-under-national-small-business-policy

I don’t think National will have a chance for a very long time. I expect Jacinda Ardern to be Prime Minister till she retires at 65. People will continue to support Jacinda Ardern even when for the last 3 years most of their promises they did not deliver. If they fail to deliver their promises again, people will still vote for her.

I guess most people don’t really care if they fail to deliver on their promises.

I suspect this will be her last term. She did say that if labour didn't get in, she would retire. If National were strong, the Kiwibuild failure should have been enough to solve. But National don't have any solutions for housing apart from the RMA, and frankly, their voter base doesn't mind house prices increasing because they get richer by the day. Many peoples houses on paper are making bigger tax free earnings, than their normal job. National and Labour are now so central, so there isn't a huge difference between them, apart from tinkering at the edges.

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#2587196 18-Oct-2020 19:23

mattwnz:

I suspect this will be her last term. She did say that if labour didn't get in, she would retire. If National were strong, the Kiwibuild failure should have been enough to solve. But National don't have any solutions for housing apart from the RMA, and frankly, their voter base doesn't mind house prices increasing because they get richer by the day. Many peoples houses on paper are making bigger tax free earnings, than their normal job. National and Labour are now so central, so there isn't a huge difference between them, apart from tinkering at the edges.

Easy to say that when you already know the result.

Bold 2, it can't be solved. Its been in play for a long time with no National efforts, and Labours efforts did not work. They all will re do RMA, thats also been in play 12 years ago, nothing happened . RMA will now, finally get resolved, but it won't drop house prices by 150k. You cant invoke FHB with incentives that just fuels demand .

You need to fuel new builds and ONLY new builds. Big grants (that have to be paid back) for new builds. Maybe a smallish stamp duty on house sales, a bit like the EV idea, tax the sales and give that to new builds. That would temper existing house demand and add to builds demand (good for employment)

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#2587213 18-Oct-2020 19:29

@Handle9

How is National suppose to compete with Jacinda Ardern when she has been the only Prime Minister to have such a large social media presence not only locally to New Zealand but also internationally as well.

JA has 1.3 million followers on Facebook, 1.5 million followers on Instagram and 650k followers on Twitter.

I’m afraid whatever National cooking next whether it will be Christopher Luxon or someone else won’t be enough to win. The only way I could see National coming out of this and be able to win an election is if they can find someone with a large social media presence like JA which is highly unlikely there will be someone with that much of a following.

I think from now on future elections will be based on popularity rather than policy until JA resigns.

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#2587214 18-Oct-2020 19:33

How is Arderns success any difference to Key? Neither of them had any particularly strong policies to effect change. National and Labour are very similar parties. Their policies are 95% the same.

National have to make a case why why they are better and have better ideas. National have to win, they can't expect Labour to lose and hand it to them.

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#2587267 18-Oct-2020 22:14

Dochart: @Handle9

How is National suppose to compete with Jacinda Ardern when she has been the only Prime Minister to have such a large social media presence not only locally to New Zealand but also internationally as well.

JA has 1.3 million followers on Facebook, 1.5 million followers on Instagram and 650k followers on Twitter.

I’m afraid whatever National cooking next whether it will be Christopher Luxon or someone else won’t be enough to win. The only way I could see National coming out of this and be able to win an election is if they can find someone with a large social media presence like JA which is highly unlikely there will be someone with that much of a following.

I think from now on future elections will be based on popularity rather than policy until JA resigns.

National did worse previously, and after John Key got in and became leader , they turned it around. We also need to remember that National was a significantly larger party than National in the last term, so things can quickly turn around. If the current PM retires, who has Labour got to replace her? They will be in the same position as they were previously. I suppose the finance minister is the obvious choice.

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#2587275 18-Oct-2020 22:23

jonathan18:

tdgeek:

Robertson as DPM

No reason or benefit to give it to Shaw. I expect Greens and Maori party will be brought in as coalition partners, or C+S. Make a full team. No negotiations or concessions as they haven't learnt any, and not needed. Greens will need to focus on green not hard left and bring forward meaningful climate change measures.

I was more trying to tease out why that poster so strongly objected to Shaw as DPM, yet also professed to not being politically biased! But, yeah, as someone who hoped for a result that would have had Labour needing the Greens support to secure a majority, I would have liked to see Shaw and/or Marama Davis in the role.

As for who within Labour gets the DPM role - it's much more complex than it going to the most competent Minister. My understanding is that Kelvin Davis' appointment to the deputy leader position was more to do with appeasing groups within the caucus, something that Robertson's appointment as DPM won't achieve. (And being in coalition with NZF meant they really didn't need to worry about him becoming DPM; how often did he need to deputise for the deputy last term?) Given the increased size of Labour's caucus this time around, and that there may well be no second party involved, managing these matters will be even more critical/difficult.

I heard this afternoon that Arden has confirmed Kelvin Davis will definitely be DPM. Here’s hoping my impression of him thus far will be proven wrong...

Dochart

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#2587287 18-Oct-2020 22:53

@mattwnz

But the thing is Jacinda Ardern won’t be retiring for a very long time though and she is pretty much guaranteed to win every election until she retires which could mean 25 years of Labour in power as she is currently 40 right now.

When John Key ran for Prime Minister back in 2008 there wasn’t much social media presence back then so it wasn’t as important compared to now. When you have no controversies and have the most followers on every social media website on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter like JA you have a better chance at winning an election as you can sway your voters due to their large following on social media websites and I think this was the main reason why she won the election.

No MP candidate will ever come close to the amount of followers JA has on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Without these followers on these social media sites no MP will have a chance to beat JA in an election unless she retires or she does a major stuff up.

mattwnz

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#2587291 18-Oct-2020 23:07

Dochart: @mattwnz

But the thing is Jacinda Ardern won’t be retiring for a very long time though and she is pretty much guaranteed to win every election until she retires which could mean 25 years of Labour in power as she is currently 40 right now.

When John Key ran for Prime Minister back in 2008 there wasn’t much social media presence back then so it wasn’t as important compared to now. When you have no controversies and have the most followers on every social media website on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter like JA you have a better chance at winning an election as you can sway your voters due to their large following on social media websites and I think this was the main reason why she won the election.

No MP candidate will ever come close to the amount of followers JA has on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Without these followers on these social media sites no MP will have a chance to beat JA in an election unless she retires or she does a major stuff up.

I am not sure she wants to be PM for more than 2 terms. Especially as she has said that she won't bring in certain things while she is still leader. But once she has gone, then that can change. This happened with JK, who stepped down, and then National tried to raise the super age, until they got voted out. I suspect she will do a JK and transition to a new leader during a term, so she doesn't get voted out. I have found social media is largely left. National don't seem to do social media very well, and it doesn't really suit them either.

Dochart

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#2587305 18-Oct-2020 23:58

mattwnz:
Dochart: @mattwnz

But the thing is Jacinda Ardern won’t be retiring for a very long time though and she is pretty much guaranteed to win every election until she retires which could mean 25 years of Labour in power as she is currently 40 right now.

When John Key ran for Prime Minister back in 2008 there wasn’t much social media presence back then so it wasn’t as important compared to now. When you have no controversies and have the most followers on every social media website on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter like JA you have a better chance at winning an election as you can sway your voters due to their large following on social media websites and I think this was the main reason why she won the election.

No MP candidate will ever come close to the amount of followers JA has on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Without these followers on these social media sites no MP will have a chance to beat JA in an election unless she retires or she does a major stuff up.

I am not sure she wants to be PM for more than 2 terms. Especially as she has said that she won't bring in certain things while she is still leader. But once she has gone, then that can change. This happened with JK, who stepped down, and then National tried to raise the super age, until they got voted out. I suspect she will do a JK and transition to a new leader during a term, so she doesn't get voted out. I have found social media is largely left. National don't seem to do social media very well, and it doesn't really suit them either.

If National can bring some fresh new faces into Parliament then surely they can improve in the next election in 2023. I think another reason why National lost Is that nobody wanted to vote for National MP’s who have been in Parliament for a very long time and I think voters wanted someone new instead.

Do I reckon JC should still be leader in the next election? I’m not sure. She did the best that she could in the short amount of time that she had. Not only did they change leaders in such a short amount of time they also had that leak recently by a National MP which probably lost them 5% of the party vote. I don’t think Christopher Luxon could become party leader until after the 2023 election, he needs more experience so maybe JC should still be leader at the 2023 election.

Gerry Brownlee looks like a goner and most likely retiring so who do you think should be deputy leader then. I think someone like Shane Reti will be a good deputy leader for National.

If JC wants a better chance at winning next time I think she has to work on her character development particularly being kind and nice to others. I think many loyal National supporters were put off with this type of behaviour which made them decide to vote for Labour or Act instead. If she can fix these things I think people may end up voting for JC instead. Look at when Bill English ran for PM in 2002 when they did really poorly and then he was leader again at the 2017 election and got the popular vote. Bill English must of been really proud that he did way better in the 2017 election even though National wasn’t able to govern due to NZ First siding with Labour. If Bill English can comeback from defeat I think JC can do it too.

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#2587309 19-Oct-2020 00:31

Dochart:

If National can bring some fresh new faces into Parliament then surely they can improve in the next election in 2023. I think another reason why National lost Is that nobody wanted to vote for National MP’s who have been in Parliament for a very long time and I think voters wanted someone new instead.

Do I reckon JC should still be leader in the next election? I’m not sure. She did the best that she could in the short amount of time that she had. Not only did they change leaders in such a short amount of time they also had that leak recently by a National MP which probably lost them 5% of the party vote. I don’t think Christopher Luxon could become party leader until after the 2023 election, he needs more experience so maybe JC should still be leader at the 2023 election.

Gerry Brownlee looks like a goner and most likely retiring so who do you think should be deputy leader then. I think someone like Shane Reti will be a good deputy leader for National.

If JC wants a better chance at winning next time I think she has to work on her character development particularly being kind and nice to others. I think many loyal National supporters were put off with this type of behaviour which made them decide to vote for Labour or Act instead. If she can fix these things I think people may end up voting for JC instead. Look at when Bill English ran for PM in 2002 when they did really poorly and then he was leader again at the 2017 election and got the popular vote. Bill English must of been really proud that he did way better in the 2017 election even though National wasn’t able to govern due to NZ First siding with Labour. If Bill English can comeback from defeat I think JC can do it too.

I think JC will be gone some time during this term. IMO she was in a no win situation, and it is bad luck for her. I think we will see Chris Luxon as leader and Simon Bridges as deputy by the next election. I think they could be creditable, and hopefully SB has learnt from what occurred prior when he was leader. It will a very similar situation to JK and BE in the previous National government that beat Labour.

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#2587310 19-Oct-2020 00:37

Luxon as leader in his first term would be entertaining. He certainly doesn't have the charm of Key and politics and business are very different beasts.

He's far more of a private school w@nker than a kid from a state house made good. The common touch is certainly not part of his appeal.

GV27

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#2587324 19-Oct-2020 06:52

Handle9:

Luxon as leader in his first term would be entertaining. He certainly doesn't have the charm of Key and politics and business are very different beasts.

He's far more of a private school w@nker than a kid from a state house made good. The common touch is certainly not part of his appeal.

Luxon is being made out as if he's some sort of Key-esque saviour. He's not, and more social conservative leadership is not the pathway back to power for National. Until they have a candidate who can drag them back to the centre, they'll be nowhere. I'm not seeing anyone in their ranks who can make that happen.

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#2587334 19-Oct-2020 06:58

GV27:

Handle9:

Luxon as leader in his first term would be entertaining. He certainly doesn't have the charm of Key and politics and business are very different beasts.

He's far more of a private school w@nker than a kid from a state house made good. The common touch is certainly not part of his appeal.

Luxon is being made out as if he's some sort of Key-esque saviour. He's not, and more social conservative leadership is not the pathway back to power for National. Until they have a candidate who can drag them back to the centre, they'll be nowhere. I'm not seeing anyone in their ranks who can make that happen.

Luxon could end up being very good but we literally have no idea. His whole public life has been in business.

IMO if National keep looking for John Key they will keep finding the opposition benches. They need someone who is authentically themselves, not a Key-light. Muller was probably closest out of the current lot and that didn't go well at all.

Key wasn't Bolger, Bolger wasn't Muldoon and Muldoon wasn't Holyoake. They were all very different characters but they were themselves, not some sort of clone of the previous leader, although in finding a clone for Muldoon may have been a truly frightening prospect.

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