What will happen to National now?

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#2587337 19-Oct-2020 07:17

Dochart: @mattwnz

But the thing is Jacinda Ardern won’t be retiring for a very long time though and she is pretty much guaranteed to win every election until she retires which could mean 25 years of Labour in power as she is currently 40 right now.

When John Key ran for Prime Minister back in 2008 there wasn’t much social media presence back then so it wasn’t as important compared to now. When you have no controversies and have the most followers on every social media website on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter like JA you have a better chance at winning an election as you can sway your voters due to their large following on social media websites and I think this was the main reason why she won the election.

No MP candidate will ever come close to the amount of followers JA has on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Without these followers on these social media sites no MP will have a chance to beat JA in an election unless she retires or she does a major stuff up.

I think you are way over analysing one factor over everything else. What they have in common is solid, reliable, likeable, no dirty laundry. Whether its the PM's we will get through this, or John Key's we have enough money (EQ's), they both offer a steady influence. To suggest that these positive factors means Prime Ministership for life is a bit bizarre.

Running the country well is a minor issue that is often considered by voters....

jonathan18

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#2587357 19-Oct-2020 08:14

GV27:

Handle9:

Luxon as leader in his first term would be entertaining. He certainly doesn't have the charm of Key and politics and business are very different beasts.

He's far more of a private school w@nker than a kid from a state house made good. The common touch is certainly not part of his appeal.

Luxon is being made out as if he's some sort of Key-esque saviour. He's not, and more social conservative leadership is not the pathway back to power for National. Until they have a candidate who can drag them back to the centre, they'll be nowhere. I'm not seeing anyone in their ranks who can make that happen.

While Collins did seemingly aim to capture some of that Christian/right block, seeing whether a true social conservative like Luxton would take National's social policies down this route would be interesting, and potentially lead to poor outcomes for National. I don't think the general trend of society is heading down that path; there doesn't even seem much interest in a party focused on this area (look at how few people chose to vote for the New Conservatives and others of a similar ilk). Add changing demographics to the mix...

GV27

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#2587393 19-Oct-2020 09:17

I think it will be a real crunch point for National. The liberal path is the only one that can possibly beat a surging Labour party. The only chance the Conservative wing has is if Labour spectacularly stuffs up this term - and we know it has to be more than just non-delivery, as that wasn't enough to sway the vote back their way this time.

I know several people who would make excellent MPs who aren't on party radars because they're just too busy getting on with stuff. The National talent pool reflects an inability to see beyond their own ranks - with the notable exception of Air New Zealand executives. It's almost like the old Marx Brothers quote about not wanting anything to do with a club that would have you as a member but in reverse - the type of people who clamour to become MPs aren't the people you really want as MPs. Unfortunately this would require massive changes all throughout the party, and it's easier just to blame the media or the voters at the moment.

Dochart

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#2587394 19-Oct-2020 09:20

tdgeek:
Dochart: @mattwnz

But the thing is Jacinda Ardern won’t be retiring for a very long time though and she is pretty much guaranteed to win every election until she retires which could mean 25 years of Labour in power as she is currently 40 right now.

When John Key ran for Prime Minister back in 2008 there wasn’t much social media presence back then so it wasn’t as important compared to now. When you have no controversies and have the most followers on every social media website on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter like JA you have a better chance at winning an election as you can sway your voters due to their large following on social media websites and I think this was the main reason why she won the election.

No MP candidate will ever come close to the amount of followers JA has on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Without these followers on these social media sites no MP will have a chance to beat JA in an election unless she retires or she does a major stuff up.

I think you are way over analysing one factor over everything else. What they have in common is solid, reliable, likeable, no dirty laundry. Whether its the PM's we will get through this, or John Key's we have enough money (EQ's), they both offer a steady influence. To suggest that these positive factors means Prime Ministership for life is a bit bizarre.

Running the country well is a minor issue that is often considered by voters....

Well I hope I’m proven wrong. We never had a NZ Prime Minister that attracts a lot of fame in NZ but internationally as well and that may be hard for voters to vote on someone else due to JA celebrity status but we will see what happens.

Fred99

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#2587460 19-Oct-2020 10:05

Dochart:

Well I hope I’m proven wrong. We never had a NZ Prime Minister that attracts a lot of fame in NZ but internationally as well and that may be hard for voters to vote on someone else due to JA celebrity status but we will see what happens.

I don't think that's correct. David Lange got a lot of international coverage, so did Helen Clark and John Key in a more limited way in different circumstances.

I think it's fair to say that there are some very poor examples of "leadership" amongst world leaders these days, and fewer shining examples of empathetic/moderate leadership. Anyway it's going to be a tough three years. Has Trump sent a congratulatory tweet?

sen8or

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#2587463 19-Oct-2020 10:08

I can't see JC being leader in 3 years and if she is, I have my doubts as to whether or not National could beat labour even under "stable leadership".

I don't think there is anyone in National that stands out with the sort of star power that Key had and without that, toppling Jacinda is going to be a hard ask. As much as NZ doesn't have "a president" and we don't officially vote for a leader in the party, the reality is that a lot of labour votes are attributable to her visibility (purely my opinion).

Labour got a bit of a free pass on the state of the economy and things like kiwibuild and their light rail promises with Covid being the issue of the day. If the election in 3 years time is under "normal circumstances" I would expect any policy failures and/or broken promises to be a lot more influential in peoples minds than this time around BUT, National still have to actually have something to offer other than "we aren't them".

Fred99

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#2587572 19-Oct-2020 11:03

sen8or:

I can't see JC being leader in 3 years

I wouldn't give it that long. The only reason she (and Brownlee) are still there almost two lunchtimes later is that to quit (or be fired) now kind of destroys the extremely disingenuous argument that Jacinda Ardern / Labour gave National a hiding because of "Stardust". It would be seen as acknowledgment that their leader and deputy were in fact completely hopeless - but the best the party could offer, and were slaughtered.

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sen8or

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#2587686 19-Oct-2020 12:01

Fred99:

sen8or:

I can't see JC being leader in 3 years

I wouldn't give it that long. The only reason she (and Brownlee) are still there almost two lunchtimes later is that to quit (or be fired) now kind of destroys the extremely disingenuous argument that Jacinda Ardern / Labour gave National a hiding because of "Stardust". It would be seen as acknowledgment that their leader and deputy were in fact completely hopeless - but the best the party could offer, and were slaughtered.

Yes, labour only got elected on the strength of their past performances, with such stellar successes like Kiwibuild, Light Rail, child poverty, oh and the billion trees......

But yes, National Party leadership and party vote got pretty much what they deserved. And quite scarily, you are probably right, they are the best of National right now

antonknee

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#2588154 20-Oct-2020 11:03

Dochart: @Handle9

How is National suppose to compete with Jacinda Ardern when she has been the only Prime Minister to have such a large social media presence not only locally to New Zealand but also internationally as well.

JA has 1.3 million followers on Facebook, 1.5 million followers on Instagram and 650k followers on Twitter.

I’m afraid whatever National cooking next whether it will be Christopher Luxon or someone else won’t be enough to win. The only way I could see National coming out of this and be able to win an election is if they can find someone with a large social media presence like JA which is highly unlikely there will be someone with that much of a following.

I think from now on future elections will be based on popularity rather than policy until JA resigns.

Probably worth pointing out Ardern's social media following and presence is relatively recent right - she wasn't a social media star prior to becoming leader and PM. Clearly, being the leader and having a high profile built the social media standing, not the other way around.

National could choose a leader who is charismatic and appealing in the way Ardern is (or Key was), instead they chose Collins who is appealing in a totally different way to a select group.

Daynger

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#2589464 20-Oct-2020 18:06

Collins was the sacrifice this election.

I would imagine they offered her the job with the view, if you win the election great, you are PM, if you lose you go back to where you were but keep a job as we chop out all the other dead wood and we put in someone who we think can challenge next election.

After Muller stepped aside there was very little time to build up a new leader that woulde likely been slaughtered in the election anyway, once you lose an election as leader you are pretty much done as the leader.

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#2589471 20-Oct-2020 18:38

Daynger:

...once you lose an election as leader you are pretty much done as the leader.

Not always true.

Handle9

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#2589473 20-Oct-2020 18:40

quickymart:

Daynger:

...once you lose an election as leader you are pretty much done as the leader.

Not always true.

It has been for the last 20 years.

Dochart

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#2589487 20-Oct-2020 19:06

@Daynger @Handle9

Not true. Look at Bill English. He was the leader of the National Party in the 2002 Election where they got 20.93% of the vote and 27 seats and then to come back in the 2017 Election to get 44.45% of the vote and 56 seats. If only NZ First went with National Party Bill English would still be PM today.

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#2589490 20-Oct-2020 19:25

Dochart: @Daynger @Handle9

Not true. Look at Bill English. He was the leader of the National Party in the 2002 Election where they got 20.93% of the vote and 27 seats and then to come back in the 2017 Election to get 44.45% of the vote and 56 seats. If only NZ First went with National Party Bill English would still be PM today.

Lol. You conveniently missed the 14 years in between where National had a different leader. English was rolled within a year of losing the election.

MikeAqua

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#2589777 21-Oct-2020 14:49

In 1987 Bolger lost after taking the reins in 1986 and stayed on for a massive landslide victory in 1990.

National will regroup, rebuild, redefine and bounce back.

Mike

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