What will happen to National now?

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838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2596297 2-Nov-2020 14:35

Dochart: @mattwnz

But the thing is Jacinda Ardern won’t be retiring for a very long time though and she is pretty much guaranteed to win every election until she retires which could mean 25 years of Labour in power as she is currently 40 right now.

When John Key ran for Prime Minister back in 2008 there wasn’t much social media presence back then so it wasn’t as important compared to now. When you have no controversies and have the most followers on every social media website on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter like JA you have a better chance at winning an election as you can sway your voters due to their large following on social media websites and I think this was the main reason why she won the election.

No MP candidate will ever come close to the amount of followers JA has on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Without these followers on these social media sites no MP will have a chance to beat JA in an election unless she retires or she does a major stuff up.

She won't be PM for 25 years. For a number of reasons.

1) No one can do that job for 25 years.

2) Her child will become an age where she will want to be around more

3) Ego will make her want a 'world' job.

4) The social media people who follow her now will be replaced by different social media people with a different person they like.

5) Economic factors such as increases in rents, food, power, transport, housing etc will still be around.

6) Another 1 or 2 covid lockdowns and the fact NZ borders will be closed for at least 1 more year and most likely 2.

7) Contrary to what you read on social media not everyone is a big supporter of all the 'progressive' policies. (Labour is starting to lose some Pacific Island vote)

8) National will get someone who is popular. The leader of a political party now is in all affect the PR head.

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2596298 2-Nov-2020 14:40

Chris Luxon is not the answer for National

One Richard McCaw would be a better bet. Of course if he was interested in that sort of thing.

MikeAqua

7769 posts

Uber Geek

#2596877 3-Nov-2020 10:35

Fred99:

I guess the main problem with seafood exports is inability to get foreign crew for deep sea vessels?

The retail price of fish in NZ is hardly indicative of over-supply on the local market (if that would be the result of a glut on export markets). Retail prices seem at least 25% higher than 12 months ago.

The problem is largely a lack of export market demand. The collapse of demand from the food service sector is big part of that.

Rock lobster is an example of fishery that doesn't use foreign crews (mostly SMEs and owner-operators) and took an early hit from COVID. Ditto Paua.

Seafood also includes farmed salmon and mussels, which employ NZ resident workers and those exports have been hit hard too.

Hoki would be affected (for some companies), but the Hoki season has only just finished so probably a few months before we see that impact (supply or demand) in export stats.

Note I'm basing the above on monthly export data (FOB volume and value), collected by customs which we purchase.

Mike

MikeAqua

7769 posts

Uber Geek

#2596886 3-Nov-2020 10:46

Fred99:

The retail price of fish in NZ is hardly indicative of over-supply on the local market (if that would be the result of a glut on export markets). Retail prices seem at least 25% higher than 12 months ago.

You would need to ask a retailer about that 😈...

I don't buy very much seafood retail. I fish recreationally and I can buy discounted at work.

Mike

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2596965 3-Nov-2020 11:48

MikeAqua:

You would need to ask a retailer about that 😈...

I did. He said that lack of crew on fishing vessels was causing a shortage, hence my question. He still drives a beat up old Hiace and works 60 hour weeks.

I suspect that it's more an informal "cost plus" mentality by the industry to maximise margins locally to offset lost revenue on export markets. This is what happens with NZ dairy, meat etc, fall in export demand/prices isn't reflected by falls in NZ retail prices. Some of that is of course the result of the retail grocery duopoly. Given their buying power, I'd have thought that they'd have been able to undercut small retailers - but they never seem to.

Meanwhile, I can buy frozen and pin-boned sides of Norwegian farmed (Atlantic) salmon much cheaper than local product, yet I expect wages and conditions are much higher in Norway.

MikeAqua

7769 posts

Uber Geek

#2597480 4-Nov-2020 10:41

Fred99:

I did. He said that lack of crew on fishing vessels was causing a shortage, hence my question. He still drives a beat up old Hiace and works 60 hour weeks.

I suspect that it's more an informal "cost plus" mentality by the industry to maximise margins locally to offset lost revenue on export markets. This is what happens with NZ dairy, meat etc, fall in export demand/prices isn't reflected by falls in NZ retail prices. Some of that is of course the result of the retail grocery duopoly. Given their buying power, I'd have thought that they'd have been able to undercut small retailers - but they never seem to.

Meanwhile, I can buy frozen and pin-boned sides of Norwegian farmed (Atlantic) salmon much cheaper than local product, yet I expect wages and conditions are much higher in Norway.

Lack of foreign crew on fishing vessels is affecting volume of a few species - hoki, squid southern blue whiting.

The inshore species like snapper, gurnard, trevally are unaffected by this. A number of smaller fishing vessels were unable to operate lockdown, because MPI rules required minimum physical separation between people and that was unachievable on some small vessels. That applies at levels 2 - 4, so well behind us now. The wholesale price for fish hasn't moved very much. The duopoly don't need to undercut small fishmongers. Like butchers, they aren't a volume threat. The big boys are prepared to bid high for fish to get and then slap the retail margin on. If you knew the wharf prices you'd be horrified.

Atlantic salmon is so cheap because of the massive scale of that industry. From memory global Salmon harvest is about 1.7 million tonnes. And about 15,000 tonne in NZ. Atlantic salmon can be automatically pin-boned. Chinook salmon (which are grown in NZ) have different shaped pin-bones and have to be pin-boned manually ($$$$). Chinook is the black angus of the salmon market, so it costs more. Frozen seafood is also generally cheaper. Consumer 'wisdom' is that chilled is better. It is on the first day, if fish has been well handled.

Mike

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2597521 4-Nov-2020 11:25

MikeAqua:

Atlantic salmon can be automatically pin-boned. Chinook salmon (which are grown in NZ) have different shaped pin-bones and have to be pin-boned manually ($$$$).

Ahh - that explains it. I've seen jobs advertised for people to work pin-boning salmon - they seem to have trouble finding staff. While I'm sure you get better at it as a "pro", when doing it at home I struggle. Then watching chefs on video showing how they do it - they make it seem easy. Thought it was just me - but they were probably pin-boning Atlantic salmon sides.

I don't mind Atlantic salmon, it's a bit less oily and smokes well.

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MikeAqua

7769 posts

Uber Geek

#2597582 4-Nov-2020 12:46

Fred99:

Ahh - that explains it. I've seen jobs advertised for people to work pin-boning salmon - they seem to have trouble finding staff. While I'm sure you get better at it as a "pro", when doing it at home I struggle. Then watching chefs on video showing how they do it - they make it seem easy. Thought it was just me - but they were probably pin-boning Atlantic salmon sides.

I don't mind Atlantic salmon, it's a bit less oily and smokes well.

For Chinook/King/Pacific salmon the best way to pin bone is with a small set of needle nose pliers, with nice chunky grips. I have little set of stainless ones in the kitchen. You grab the end of the pin bone and pull up, rolling your wrist at the same time (when you see a whole pin-bone it will make sense). It's a 🤬of a job to do all day.

The fat profile is often what draws people to Chinook Salmon, that's very much personal taste of course. It's very good cold-smoked and sliced nice and thin. It also makes amazing gravlax. Being so rich it's very filling. Like tuna.

Mike

arcon

423 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2598202 5-Nov-2020 11:15

Technofreak:

Labour now has three years to prove they can do the job without having to contend with the Lion. If they can do that then they will probably get re-elected no matter how good National is as an opposition otherwise National won’t have to be all that good to have a better than even chance of forming the government in 2023.

IMO National have zero chance in 2023 under Collins. Solid debate performance - but the fact that they still took a massive hit should be a warning sign that people see a systemic flaw with the nature of your party that makes them not care about your policy. Housing / living affordability is only going to get worse in the next 3 years - it won't matter.

The kind of sincerity from the "Be Kind" brand is very powerful, not something people are used to seeing from politicians and National have no counter... the party is going in the wrong direction and not modernizing at all.

Something tells me they're just going to get their back up and repeat the same tired "Oh, we're the party that farmers and businesses like, yeah... that's all we got. Two ticks Blue. Oh and Jacinda's a liar - Yeah, I don't have the tact to frame an argument so instead I'll trash talk the most popular leader in recent times & see what happens."

Technofreak

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#2598263 5-Nov-2020 12:47

arcon:

IMO National have zero chance in 2023 under Collins. Solid debate performance - but the fact that they still took a massive hit should be a warning sign that people see a systemic flaw with the nature of your party that makes them not care about your policy. Housing / living affordability is only going to get worse in the next 3 years - it won't matter.

The kind of sincerity from the "Be Kind" brand is very powerful, not something people are used to seeing from politicians and National have no counter... the party is going in the wrong direction and not modernizing at all.

Something tells me they're just going to get their back up and repeat the same tired "Oh, we're the party that farmers and businesses like, yeah... that's all we got. Two ticks Blue. Oh and Jacinda's a liar - Yeah, I don't have the tact to frame an argument so instead I'll trash talk the most popular leader in recent times & see what happens."

If things are not managed well for the next three years it is going to be tough for a lot of people. Platitudes like "Be Kind" wear a bit thin when you've lost your job and are struggling to feed and house your loved ones.

Generally governments don't get voted in, they get voted out. The other lot, who ever they may be only need to be half reasonable to get given the gig by the electorate if the electorate want change.

I'm not a big fan of Judith Collins but I think the massive focus that has been placed on the party leaders shows how shallow some of the thinking is in this country. Not only do you need a good leader but that leader also needs a good team around them and there has been very little focus on who that team is for either party. My voting decisions are not just based around the party leader. This year at least it would seem a lot of votes were purely cast on who was the party leader. I think that is a bit silly.

If history is anything to go by Judith will not be Nationals leader at the next election. Just as it would be for any party in opposition they will rebuild for the next election.

It wouldn't surprise me that Jacinda wasn't the Labour leader at the next election either. She's had the job three years longer than she expected to already and I suspect she will have had enough before this term is out. Of course there will be tremendous pressure from within Labour for her to stay on. Pure speculation on my part, who knows how it may play out.

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arcon

423 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2598298 5-Nov-2020 14:22

Technofreak:

I'm not a big fan of Judith Collins but I think the massive focus that has been placed on the party leaders shows how shallow some of the thinking is in this country. Not only do you need a good leader but that leader also needs a good team around them and there has been very little focus on who that team is for either party. My voting decisions are not just based around the party leader. This year at least it would seem a lot of votes were purely cast on who was the party leader. I think that is a bit silly.

I would agree with the importance of the team, but its also reasonable to expect some basic morals from leadership so they can set an example. The character of National leaders was dismal. And I don't just mean Judith "rent-a-crowd" Collins. When her deputy goes down a rabbit hole with a covid conspiracy... that looked so weak and pathetic.

I'd agree that Jacinda Ardern will time-out from politics but would bet big money it won't be before 2023 is done and dusted. No idea what's going to happen with National... I hope they get it together because I consider myself a capitalist lol, competition is important for politics as in business IMO.

Handle9

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#2598381 5-Nov-2020 17:27

Technofreak:

I'm not a big fan of Judith Collins but I think the massive focus that has been placed on the party leaders shows how shallow some of the thinking is in this country. Not only do you need a good leader but that leader also needs a good team around them and there has been very little focus on who that team is for either party. My voting decisions are not just based around the party leader. This year at least it would seem a lot of votes were purely cast on who was the party leader. I think that is a bit silly.

In this election it was pretty clear which team was stronger. One team ran a very professional, effective and disciplined campaign. The other changed it's leader 3 times and couldn't organise a booze up in a brewery.

The whole "Nationals team is stronger" trope has been demonstrably untrue for a while. They are currently a rabble.

quickymart

13779 posts

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#2598399 5-Nov-2020 17:59

So when do they decide who's doing what, and whether Judith/Gerry get to stay or go?

Handle9

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#2598401 5-Nov-2020 18:17

quickymart:

So when do they decide who's doing what, and whether Judith/Gerry get to stay or go?

The leadership election will be on Tuesday at caucus - it can't happen until the final election results are clear. Shadow cabinet announced Friday next week.

Technofreak

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#2598840 6-Nov-2020 11:23

Handle9:

In this election it was pretty clear which team was stronger. One team ran a very professional, effective and disciplined campaign. The other changed it's leader 3 times and couldn't organise a booze up in a brewery.

The whole "Nationals team is stronger" trope has been demonstrably untrue for a while. They are currently a rabble.

I agree Labour ran a very good campaign especially when you compare it with Nationals. Hats off to the whomever Labour used for their election strategy.

We shouldn't confuse the election strategy team with the parliamentary team.

The Labour Parliamentary team was abysmal during the last term and I'm not sure it's much better now. That doesn't mean I think the National team is particularly good either.

Micheal Bassett the former Labour Minister is on record as saying Labour had a weak cabinet last time and it's not looking much better this time. Pretty scathing coming from a Labour supporter.

You seemed to miss my point that there was far too much focus on the leader.

Covid was a heaven sent opportunity for brand Jacinda to get maximum exposure. That's why the PM fronted nearly all of the Covid stand ups and let us all know how she was saving us from Covid.

Sure she should have done some of the stand ups but why wasn't the Health Minister to the fore as well? I think there are two reasons, he didn't have her confidence and it would have reduced her critically important camera time. It's well known that popularity as preferred PM is directly proportional to media exposure.

National no matter which leader they had was on an uphill battle from the start.

Labour focused on their campaign on one person because to do anything else would have exposed their weaknesses. It was a smart move on their part. However just like one swallow does not a summer make, neither does a leader on their own a successful government make.

A good government needs a team of strong ministers and New Zealand is in dire need of such government right now. I really hope Jacinda and her team are up to the task and can do it.

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