What will happen to National now?

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#2887337 16-Mar-2022 18:28

JPNZ:

tdgeek:

Covid. While many employers held employees with the wage subsidy, many businesses failed, or reduced staff. So of the ex employees now on the dole, the jobs arent there as business employment has dropped during Covid. So employment is at a record low as the jobs are largely filled.

Ummmm No.

28/02/22 Job listings site Seek records all-time-high job listings in January, A record number of job ads was posted on one of the country's leading labour market websites last month.

The number of job ads rose 9 percent month-on-month, which was 42 percent up year-on-year and 36 percent more than in January 2019, which was the year before the pandemic hit.

"Businesses returned quickly to the search for talent in the new year and by the second week of January ads were tracking 48 percent ahead year-on-year," Seek country manager Rob Clark said.

05/10/21 NZ jobs market runs hot, untouched by lockdown, says Trade Me,

Salaries have hit record highs and job listings continue to rise, an analysis of more than 78,000 vacancies listed on Trade Me Jobs shows.

Job listings had remained strong and appeared unscathed by lockdown restrictions in the quarter ending September 30, Trade Me jobs sales director Matt Tolich said.

“Following on from a solid first half of the year, we saw a 46 per cent year-on-year increase in the number of jobs advertised on Trade Me in Q3.

“We have seen a remarkable year-on-year increase in the number of job listings onsite since most of the country came out of lockdown, with a 26 per cent year-on-year jump in September alone. In fact, since most of New Zealand entered Alert Level 3, we have seen an average of over 1000 jobs listed on Trade Me every weekday,” he said in a statement on Tuesday.

Year on year? What was the base year?

quickymart

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#2887494 17-Mar-2022 09:23

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/nationals-proposed-tax-changes-suggest-theyre-out-of-ideas-shane-te-pou/YLIB2DHZGADNZ4QA33DR2POOOE/ (paywalled)
Talks about Luxon's tax cuts plans and how it wouldn't really help those at the bottom of the ladder, ie, the ones that need it the most - but would help him greatly.

networkn

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#2887500 17-Mar-2022 09:30

quickymart:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/nationals-proposed-tax-changes-suggest-theyre-out-of-ideas-shane-te-pou/YLIB2DHZGADNZ4QA33DR2POOOE/ (paywalled)
Talks about Luxon's tax cuts plans and how it wouldn't really help those at the bottom of the ladder, ie, the ones that need it the most - but would help him greatly.

In the past few years, plenty has been done to help the lower socio-economic groups in this country. Surely it's ok if it's balanced out by also providing some in other areas?

It doesn't preclude there being other measures to also be taken.

OldGeek

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#2887505 17-Mar-2022 09:44

quickymart:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/nationals-proposed-tax-changes-suggest-theyre-out-of-ideas-shane-te-pou/YLIB2DHZGADNZ4QA33DR2POOOE/ (paywalled)
Talks about Luxon's tax cuts plans and how it wouldn't really help those at the bottom of the ladder, ie, the ones that need it the most - but would help him greatly.

I think that talk about tax cuts is tone-deaf in todays world. We have grown accustomed to the idea that the pandemic has necessitated unprecedented levels of Government borrowing to cushion the financial impact of the pandemic with subsidies to business to keep their employees on the payroll. National should instead be focussing on returning Government spending to pre-pandemic levels except for Health, addressing the shortcomings of our Health facilities that the pandemic has exposed, and a plan to get Government debt back to pre-pandemic levels.

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networkn

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#2887509 17-Mar-2022 09:54

OldGeek:

I think that talk about tax cuts is tone-deaf in todays world. We have grown accustomed to the idea that the pandemic has necessitated unprecedented levels of Government borrowing to cushion the financial impact of the pandemic with subsidies to business to keep their employees on the payroll. National should instead be focussing on returning Government spending to pre-pandemic levels except for Health, addressing the shortcomings of our Health facilities that the pandemic has exposed, and a plan to get Government debt back to pre-pandemic levels.

It's not really tax cuts, but adjustments of tax brackets that haven't been touched in years and years and years.

It's like Labour increasing a fuel tax which is technically not a new tax that they ruled out.

Having said that, I agree with your sentiment about the general direction National should head, except that was what their last stint in Government was and because there weren't enough lollies, then they were unpopular compared to Labour who promised all sorts of magical jellybeans.

The endless complaints that the return to surplus was done at the expense of spending on infrastructure etc etc, would only be so much worse this time around.

I think people are in for an incredibly rude shock when the full financial impact of the pandemic becomes apparent. The Government hasn't really spent any time explaining what the long term consequence of all this borrowing is and so your average voter (I believe) isn't really focused on the fact it all has to be paid back, and that will mean either increased taxes or significant reduction in spending. It's basic math. Of course, we could stimulate productivity like crazy which would increase tax take too, but that hasn't been a pattern NZ has been able to sustain for any period.

I believe the whole Labour spends, National saves this will end up being true for a cycle or two.

There are some harsh realities coming for Kiwis very shortly, unfortunately.

JPNZ

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#2887512 17-Mar-2022 10:04

tdgeek:

Year on year? What was the base year?

Does it matter? Sounds like your trying to deflect. You made a statement proclaiming unemployment was low because "as the jobs are largely filled" when in actual fact you were clearly wrong. There are tens of thousands of job vacancies out there, in the evidence from last month job listings are at an all time high.

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GV27

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#2887513 17-Mar-2022 10:08

OldGeek:

I think that talk about tax cuts is tone-deaf in todays world. We have grown accustomed to the idea that the pandemic has necessitated unprecedented levels of Government borrowing to cushion the financial impact of the pandemic with subsidies to business to keep their employees on the payroll. National should instead be focussing on returning Government spending to pre-pandemic levels except for Health, addressing the shortcomings of our Health facilities that the pandemic has exposed, and a plan to get Government debt back to pre-pandemic levels.

More likely the Government has grown accustomed to the idea that it can increase taxes by stealth by taxing the inflation component of payrises, while at the same time doing things like introducing a minimum wage that is only a few thousand off seeing people landing in a 30% tax bracket.

As for addressing the shortcomings of our health system and getting debt back to pre-pandemic levels: we probably can't afford to do both. It's far more likely we're just to see spending continue to increase and only see tangible change when National manage to get some traction on issues like cancer care or living costs.

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elpenguino

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#2887515 17-Mar-2022 10:11

networkn:

I believe the whole Labour spends, National saves this will end up being true for a cycle or two.

There are some harsh realities coming for Kiwis very shortly, unfortunately.

Let's not believe the hype.

We may have forgotten that national debt decreased under the Clark government.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-and-labours-nine-years-in-charge-what-the-data-shows/ODXY5IEWMUXCU3PXTMHUZO3TRU/

The Helen Clark-led Labour Government cut Government debt from 23 per cent when it came into power to 5 per cent, as the global economy boomed.

Debt has increased under the Ardern government thanks to the pandemic but debt also increased under the Key government thanks to the GFC and earthquakes.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-and-labours-nine-years-in-charge-what-the-data-shows/ODXY5IEWMUXCU3PXTMHUZO3TRU/

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

GV27

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#2887517 17-Mar-2022 10:18

elpenguino:

We may have forgotten that national debt decreased under the Clark government.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-and-labours-nine-years-in-charge-what-the-data-shows/ODXY5IEWMUXCU3PXTMHUZO3TRU/

The Helen Clark-led Labour Government cut Government debt from 23 per cent when it came into power to 5 per cent, as the global economy boomed.

It's easy to run down debt when you build very little infrastructure. Cullen also played the 'barely ever adjust tax brackets' game, which saw someone earning $60K start to incur a 39% tax rate from that point on. It was insane.

This is the mistake we still make today - we spent a lot of money on operational stuff but usually at the end of a government's term, all they have to show for it are some new roads and a megaproject (Waterview, Transmission Gully, etc).

I thought the building of the CRL would herald a change in central government's willingness to provide vitally needed infra in Auckland but the Light Rail experience has totally quashed that idea.

networkn

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#2887523 17-Mar-2022 10:32

elpenguino:

Let's not believe the hype.

We may have forgotten that national debt decreased under the Clark government.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-and-labours-nine-years-in-charge-what-the-data-shows/ODXY5IEWMUXCU3PXTMHUZO3TRU/

The Helen Clark-led Labour Government cut Government debt from 23 per cent when it came into power to 5 per cent, as the global economy boomed.

Debt has increased under the Ardern government thanks to the pandemic but debt also increased under the Key government thanks to the GFC and earthquakes.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-and-labours-nine-years-in-charge-what-the-data-shows/ODXY5IEWMUXCU3PXTMHUZO3TRU/

Hype? National returned the account to surplus, which is what they said they would do. Whether you agree on how they did it or not, is a matter of personal opinion. You can't have everything though.

Whoever wins the election in 2023 is likely going to have to deliver loads of bad news by way of spending cuts and tax increases as we face the reality of what the pandemic has cost us, and Labours many failed policies which will be a significant but unsurprisingly not detailed amount.

So, based on this, National Saved, and Labour spent. If National get in in 2023 their focus is very likely going to be on reducing our debt, I don't expect to see many 100,000 houses, or billion trees promises from them.

elpenguino

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#2887524 17-Mar-2022 10:33

GV27:

This is the mistake we still make today - we spent a lot of money on operational stuff but usually at the end of a government's term, all they have to show for it are some new roads and a megaproject (Waterview, Transmission Gully, etc).

I thought the building of the CRL would herald a change in central government's willingness to provide vitally needed infra in Auckland but the Light Rail experience has totally quashed that idea.

As an outsider, it' looks like it's only been in the last 10-15 years that Auckland has been talking and acting on about mass transit.

It's encouraging that both major parties have supported rail based options and not flip flopped on that.

Considering that Auckland will have the next rail infrastructure thing , to the airport or where ever, for generations to come, I'm all in favour of getting it right first time.

I know Aucklanders want to see instant action but imagine the complaints or court cases if the project was built without taking the best options.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

elpenguino

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#2887526 17-Mar-2022 10:36

networkn:

elpenguino:

Let's not believe the hype.

We may have forgotten that national debt decreased under the Clark government.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-and-labours-nine-years-in-charge-what-the-data-shows/ODXY5IEWMUXCU3PXTMHUZO3TRU/

The Helen Clark-led Labour Government cut Government debt from 23 per cent when it came into power to 5 per cent, as the global economy boomed.

Debt has increased under the Ardern government thanks to the pandemic but debt also increased under the Key government thanks to the GFC and earthquakes.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-and-labours-nine-years-in-charge-what-the-data-shows/ODXY5IEWMUXCU3PXTMHUZO3TRU/

Hype? National returned the account to surplus, which is what they said they would do. Whether you agree on how they did it or not, is a matter of personal opinion. You can't have everything though.

Whoever wins the election in 2023 is likely going to have to deliver loads of bad news by way of spending cuts and tax increases as we face the reality of what the pandemic has cost us, and Labours many failed policies which will be a significant but unsurprisingly not detailed amount.

So, based on this, National Saved, and Labour spent. If National get in in 2023 their focus is very likely going to be on reducing our debt, I don't expect to see many 100,000 houses, or billion trees promises from them.

What is it about the politics thread that makes people ignore facts?

The Helen Clark-led Labour Government cut Government debt from 23 per cent when it came into power to 5 per cent.

It's there in black and white.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

GV27

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#2887529 17-Mar-2022 10:57

elpenguino:

Considering that Auckland will have the next rail infrastructure thing , to the airport or where ever, for generations to come, I'm all in favour of getting it right first time.

Same, which is why I'm so disappointed that it all fell apart in 2018 and the proposals get laughably worse and more expensive with each passing day.

Defending the process we've been through on the justification of 'getting it right first time'... I think that ship has probably sailed.

elpenguino

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#2887544 17-Mar-2022 11:20

GV27:

elpenguino:

Considering that Auckland will have the next rail infrastructure thing , to the airport or where ever, for generations to come, I'm all in favour of getting it right first time.

Same, which is why I'm so disappointed that it all fell apart in 2018 and the proposals get laughably worse and more expensive with each passing day.

Defending the process we've been through on the justification of 'getting it right first time'... I think that ship has probably sailed.

You sound frustrated and ready for 'I want some tracks going somewhere, anywhere'.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

Jas777

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#2887545 17-Mar-2022 11:25

GV27:

elpenguino:

Considering that Auckland will have the next rail infrastructure thing , to the airport or where ever, for generations to come, I'm all in favour of getting it right first time.

Same, which is why I'm so disappointed that it all fell apart in 2018 and the proposals get laughably worse and more expensive with each passing day.

Defending the process we've been through on the justification of 'getting it right first time'... I think that ship has probably sailed.

Rail to the airport is a gimmick, they will find that hardly anyone uses to and from the airport and that 90% of passengers will just be every day Aucklanders using other parts of the route. If going to build rail then build it to places Aucklanders need for normal life.

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