What will happen to National now?

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#2605338 17-Nov-2020 11:36

I was going to post something about Collins' brief exploration of the concept of direct intervention with RBNZ "independence" in order to try to rein in house price inflation.

Judith Collins says she might consider an ACT party policy that could force the Reserve Bank to put a lid on rampant house price growth, although she has walked back any firm commitment.

ACT leader David Seymour has said the Reserve Bank should start considering the rising price of assets, such as housing, when it makes official cash rate decisions. This could potentially mean higher interest rates, raising the cost of borrowing and putting a lid on house prices.

MikeAqua

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#2605363 17-Nov-2020 12:27

Fred99:

sen8or:

and any words that aren't glowing about our PM is tantamount to treasonous hate speech

And inevitably, instead of sticking to the subject of the thread, we have to read abject untruths like that.

I'd describe that statement as hyperbole rather than untruth. Ardern's popularity is such, that it's unpopular to criticise her.

Mike

MikeAqua

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#2605369 17-Nov-2020 12:42

Fred99:

I was going to post something about Collins' brief exploration of the concept of direct intervention with RBNZ "independence" in order to try to rein in house price inflation.

One of the few joys about opposition is you can just say stuff.

Being serious for a moment ... maybe the circumstances warrant unprecedented intervention.

These are unprecedented times, COVID is distorting the housing market (via kiwis flocking home and buying houses).

The reserve bank is reintroducing LVRs to push house prices down. At the same time they are introducing lending for borrowing, which will push prices up. What the?

Even Sir Michael Cullen is calling for a less hands-off approach by govt.

Mike

Handle9

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#2608714 23-Nov-2020 06:30

Interesting speeches from the National party conference. Key and Collins seemed to have much better grips on reality than Peter Goodfellow or some similar comments I've seen on here. I agree with Keys comments that National voters complaining about a celebrity leader are as out of touch as Labour supporters were when they made the same.comments about him.

Until National gets its caucus under control and presents any sort of credible alternative they are going to struggle.

Fred99

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#2608787 23-Nov-2020 09:04

Handle9: better grips on reality than Peter Goodfellow

Maybe having a person who wasn't "billionaire by inheritance - quiet NZ style" as a leader could help.

His father Douglas thought giving a couple of hundred million donation to an exclusive private school for the wealthy was an "act of charity". I don't think he was connected to reality either. "Born to rule" conservatism isn't something I'm a fan of, especially when there's a dose of god-bothering thrown in to the mix.

Fred99

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#2608881 23-Nov-2020 10:20

MikeAqua:

Being serious for a moment ... maybe the circumstances warrant unprecedented intervention.

I agree. It's still a fundamental change to how things have worked for >30 years, and if the rules change then the floodgates may open.

IIRC Key was rather keen on OBR (as an alternative to deposit guarantees) and that was implemented by RBNZ as policy. But I don't think that was "hello RBNZ - here's the idea you're going to think of yourself". Key/English did have a couple of quiet attempts to "talk down" the NZD, for which they were criticised.

networkn

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#2609127 23-Nov-2020 14:32

I was having a little chuckle to myself at JA today saying that the difference between her and National was she was acknowledging there was an issue. A lot of good that does if you are acknowledging it whilst dumping truck loads of petrol onto the fire by suggesting you will help first home buyers into the market with incentives, and otherwise sitting on your hands.

In my view, the answer is supply.

I would:

1) Incentivise at the highest rate first home buyers who build, an extra % amount if you do so outside of the main center where pressure is highest

2) Incentivise non-developers who build, extra % if you build outside the main centres

3) Ensure new home build consent processes are fast-tracked

4) Ensure Chorus prioritizes high-quality internet to regions not serviced currently.

5) Immediately relax some of the RMA process which take the most time and cost the most, with a view to long term proper overhaul.

The priority needs to be supply and no, the government should *not* be doing this. Clearly it doesn't work and was never going to work.

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Jas777

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#2609151 23-Nov-2020 15:06

Incentives for first-time buyers is just a vote catcher / PR exercise.

If anything there should be incentives for people who generate income-producing assets not houses.

I always wondered why you can get an interest free loan to study but not an interest free loan to create a business or similar. Now I know people will talk about business failures but at least 20 percent of students who get an interest-free loan don't graduate or even if graduate don't work in the area they graduated in.

MikeAqua

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#2609152 23-Nov-2020 15:07

Key was also on the TV this morning. His solution to housing prices was supply. He gave the example of ChCh where a decrease in population and increased supply of new housing drove down prices.

I agree with Key that it's pointless to bemoan Ardern's popularity. Obsession with celebrity is a symptom of modern society. Ardern's celebrity is at least somewhat earned. She certainly knows how to leverage a crisis.

Mike

networkn

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#2609155 23-Nov-2020 15:07

Jas777:

Incentives for first-time buyers is just a vote catcher / PR exercise.

If anything there should be incentives for people who generate income-producing assets not houses.

I always wondered why you can get an interest free loan to study but not an interest free loan to create a business or similar. Now I know people will talk about business failures but at least 20 percent of students who get an interest-free loan don't graduate or even if graduate don't work in the area they graduated in.

No, I am suggesting first home builders.

We need more supply.

Handle9

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#2609227 23-Nov-2020 16:25

networkn:
I was having a little chuckle to myself at JA today saying that the difference between her and National was she was acknowledging there was an issue. A lot of good that does if you are acknowledging it whilst dumping truck loads of petrol onto the fire by suggesting you will help first home buyers into the market with incentives, and otherwise sitting on your hands.

In my view, the answer is supply.

I would:

1) Incentivise at the highest rate first home buyers who build, an extra % amount if you do so outside of the main center where pressure is highest

2) Incentivise non-developers who build, extra % if you build outside the main centres

3) Ensure new home build consent processes are fast-tracked

4) Ensure Chorus prioritizes high-quality internet to regions not serviced currently.

5) Immediately relax some of the RMA process which take the most time and cost the most, with a view to long term proper overhaul.

The priority needs to be supply and no, the government should *not* be doing this. Clearly it doesn't work and was never going to work.

I'm struggling to see the connection with this thread?

tdgeek

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#2609319 23-Nov-2020 18:51

networkn:

I was having a little chuckle to myself at JA today saying that the difference between her and National was she was acknowledging there was an issue. A lot of good that does if you are acknowledging it whilst dumping truck loads of petrol onto the fire by suggesting you will help first home buyers into the market with incentives, and otherwise sitting on your hands.

In my view, the answer is supply.

I would:

1) Incentivise at the highest rate first home buyers who build, an extra % amount if you do so outside of the main center where pressure is highest

2) Incentivise non-developers who build, extra % if you build outside the main centres

3) Ensure new home build consent processes are fast-tracked

4) Ensure Chorus prioritizes high-quality internet to regions not serviced currently.

5) Immediately relax some of the RMA process which take the most time and cost the most, with a view to long term proper overhaul.

The priority needs to be supply and no, the government should *not* be doing this. Clearly it doesn't work and was never going to work.

LOL I disagree with the first bit, but you are 1000% correct as I've been saying all along, SUPPLY. The so called housing crisis has been building for decades. While its VERY fair to say to Bill and John you can't deny there is a housing crisis (re Bill and the third debate 2017) this goes back to Clarke. Housing rising is normal, it paralleled inflation, so it wasn't an issue. When inflation was targeted, it became an issue. A general low wage economy, a low inflation rate (great) but high immigration and no building incentives at all. Its a waste of time to target LVR, low deposits even for FHB, its artificial. If you use artificial means to combat the supply and demand problem, you are kicking the can down the street.

Build build build. Incentivse new builds, penalise existing purchases, not heavily but enough to push the FHB to build not buy. If you immigrate, awesome, but you are not allowed to buy you can only rent or build.

If you match supply with demand you can go back to a market driven housing market. Otherwise its a fake response.

tdgeek

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#2609320 23-Nov-2020 18:55

MikeAqua:

Key was also on the TV this morning. His solution to housing prices was supply. He gave the example of ChCh where a decrease in population and increased supply of new housing drove down prices.

I agree with Key that it's pointless to bemoan Ardern's popularity. Obsession with celebrity is a symptom of modern society. Ardern's celebrity is at least somewhat earned. She certainly knows how to leverage a crisis.

And JK's was earned as well. He can get any with ponytail-gate as he was respected. I agree the solution is supply but Labour didn't, National didnt. Someone needs to

tdgeek

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#2609322 23-Nov-2020 18:56

Handle9:
networkn:

I was having a little chuckle to myself at JA today saying that the difference between her and National was she was acknowledging there was an issue. A lot of good that does if you are acknowledging it whilst dumping truck loads of petrol onto the fire by suggesting you will help first home buyers into the market with incentives, and otherwise sitting on your hands.

In my view, the answer is supply.

I would:

1) Incentivise at the highest rate first home buyers who build, an extra % amount if you do so outside of the main center where pressure is highest

2) Incentivise non-developers who build, extra % if you build outside the main centres

3) Ensure new home build consent processes are fast-tracked

4) Ensure Chorus prioritizes high-quality internet to regions not serviced currently.

5) Immediately relax some of the RMA process which take the most time and cost the most, with a view to long term proper overhaul.

The priority needs to be supply and no, the government should *not* be doing this. Clearly it doesn't work and was never going to work.

I'm struggling to see the connection with this thread?

Its a what can National do better thread. He gave solutions.

Handle9

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#2609557 24-Nov-2020 01:34

No he didn't he gave solutions for house prices. There's a thread for that

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=184&topicid=279960

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