What will happen to National now?

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Forums › Politics › What will happen to National now?

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2031 posts

Uber Geek

#3082326 30-May-2023 12:09

tdgeek:

I guess that's all in each budget publication, and presumably that document never gets taken apart by third party analysts? In any case, it still comes back to where is the money coming from and what do we do with it.

Correct. The information is readily available on an annual and half yearly basis. For example https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/budget-economic-and-fiscal-update-2023 has expense tables breaking down the major areas of spend.

Our two single biggest drivers of spend are Social Security and Welfare (up 47% since 2018 after excluding COVID costs) driven by 30% increase in NZ Super and a doubling in Jobseeker/Emerency Benefits and related benefits like Accomm Assistance & Hardship Assistance etc. Note that the number of beneficiaries is only up 25% and NZSuper beneficiaries up by 14% before there is a claim that these numbers have exploded.

And Health - which as mentioned before is up 50% (after excluding COVID costs) since 2018 (my error before I quoted 2017 as the baseline so Health spend from 2017 to 2022 is even higher.

There is as much scrutiny on the Governments financials as there is on listed company financials - woeful scrutiny. And even less reporting on Government financials than listed companies.

The Banks and Supermarkets get more scrutiny about their "excessive" profits (BS) than the Government gets about its economic efficiency. Imagine if Supermarkets spent huge sums on swanky fitouts and Banks had empty branches in every small town but both made no money. Would their level of pricing and revenue still be acceptable? If a corporate gouges on prices and pays exorbitantly for its number of staff (salaries and perks), is it still okay to price gouge? Spot the analogy.

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Handle9

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#3082578 30-May-2023 21:09

Meanwhile Luxon isn’t opposed to bilingual signs but is opposed to printing them.

WT actual F is he doing anywhere near this culture wars nonsense?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300892521/national-mps-disagree-over-bilingual-signs-luxon-not-opposed-per-se

GV27

5885 posts

Uber Geek

#3082610 31-May-2023 06:46

More nonsense.

Also:

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/121604/auckland-mp-simon-o%E2%80%99connor-says-he-successfully-lobbied-bipartisan-mdrs-policy

I grew up in the Tamaki electorate. My grandparents lived there, my parents lived there, it's a great place. I'd love to move my family there one day so they could go to the same schools I did and have that opportunity. But a four bedroom house in my old suburb is $2m+.

And I kind of get the opposition; Parts of Tamaki have taken on huge intensification already, with constant roadworks as a result and AT has actually reduced bus timetables since I left - like there's no weekend services after 6pm sort of thing. So I sort of understand why people there aren't a fan of the idea of even more housing when there's less and less access to services going around. Matters not helped by a huge retirement development being approved that breached both the Plan requirements for the area and on top of an iconic ridgeline which is actually an old volcanic crater rim. In short, the Council hasn't really earned the trust of residents to do the basics of their jobs properly.

But instead of lobbying for more services to make it work, the default response is to reject any and all development, ring-fence the suburbs to the point where no one can afford and instead of selling to middle-aged Kiwi families, instead selling to cashed-up migrants who are prepared to pay huge money to live in a safe suburb, that their own kids could never afford as a result.

And they're proud of it.

quickymart

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#3082708 31-May-2023 11:57

Good commentary from Newsroom: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/national-getting-sucked-into-regressive-race-debate

ezbee

2371 posts

Uber Geek

#3082786 31-May-2023 14:16

Handle9: Meanwhile Luxon isn’t opposed to bilingual signs but is opposed to printing them.

WT actual F is he doing anywhere near this culture wars nonsense?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300892521/national-mps-disagree-over-bilingual-signs-luxon-not-opposed-per-se

First Ghost Chips.

Now Ghost Bilingual Signs ?

They are really scared they have attracted a base this would upset, bowing to crazies ?
The remaining flotsom of WhaleOil, the Covid dissafected, and Evangelicals who want American South in NZ.

Hopefully on the otherside though,
I do hope that people who want to pillory those who miss out a 'macron' gain some perspective as well.
A bit of kindness on both sides goes a long way.

gzt

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#3082966 31-May-2023 19:12

National Party have removed the words "boot camp" from the policy pages and replaced it with "Young Offender Military Academy", and "Academies" indicating more than one. The targets are 15-17 year olds with two or more serious offences. Run by the army, and presumably something like a prison too, with escapes and all that going on.

What could possibly go wrong in that environment? You don't have to look far:

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-districts/star-selwyn/assaults-common-problem-nz-army

I don't doubt that some people will benefit from a structured environment. Some people always will. I have real doubts about an army being able to manage this.

sir1963

3239 posts

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#3083073 1-Jun-2023 07:07

gzt: National Party have removed the words "boot camp" from the policy pages and replaced it with "Young Offender Military Academy", and "Academies" indicating more than one. The targets are 15-17 year olds with two or more serious offences. Run by the army, and presumably something like a prison too, with escapes and all that going on.

What could possibly go wrong in that environment? You don't have to look far:

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-districts/star-selwyn/assaults-common-problem-nz-army

I don't doubt that some people will benefit from a structured environment. Some people always will. I have real doubts about an army being able to manage this.

Who then if not the army.

At this point their choices are pretty stark...next step is prison, and at 18 its adult prison.

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Ge0rge

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#3083120 1-Jun-2023 07:11

sir1963:
gzt: National Party have removed the words "boot camp" from the policy pages and replaced it with "Young Offender Military Academy", and "Academies" indicating more than one. The targets are 15-17 year olds with two or more serious offences. Run by the army, and presumably something like a prison too, with escapes and all that going on.

What could possibly go wrong in that environment? You don't have to look far:

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-districts/star-selwyn/assaults-common-problem-nz-army

I don't doubt that some people will benefit from a structured environment. Some people always will. I have real doubts about an army being able to manage this.

Who then if not the army.

At this point their choices are pretty stark...next step is prison, and at 18 its adult prison.

Have you seen the Defence Force's attrition rates for last year and this? There isn't an Army to give this job to!

Never mind that a significant number of them left as a result of being made to go guard hotels for two years - turning the Army into a care facility would probably force the rest of them out too.

GV27

5885 posts

Uber Geek

#3083122 1-Jun-2023 07:29

I'm open to the suggestion that this isn't the right way to do things - I'm not 100% that turning criminals into even more determined, stronger fitter people will lead to anything other than more effective criminals.

What I do tire of is that we can just shut this kind of suggestion down with no response or obligation to continue until we have an actual solution, as if the status quo isn't a huge failure in dire need of some form of intervention.

sir1963

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#3083134 1-Jun-2023 08:24

Ge0rge: [

Have you seen the Defence Force's attrition rates for last year and this? There isn't an Army to give this job to!

Never mind that a significant number of them left as a result of being made to go guard hotels for two years - turning the Army into a care facility would probably force the rest of them out too.

As a guess I would say it is the pay rate.

Given how they get shunted around the country, can spend significant times away from home, and then be put into dangerous situations for the pay they get....yeah nah.

sir1963

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#3083137 1-Jun-2023 08:38

GV27:

I'm open to the suggestion that this isn't the right way to do things - I'm not 100% that turning criminals into even more determined, stronger fitter people will lead to anything other than more effective criminals.

What I do tire of is that we can just shut this kind of suggestion down with no response or obligation to continue until we have an actual solution, as if the status quo isn't a huge failure in dire need of some form of intervention.

The reactionary "lock them up for longer" does not work, the USA is living proof brutality, the death sentence, and a highly punitive justice system does not work, their crime rates are WAY higher than ours.

They imprison kids for not going to school, etc too.

But softly softly also does not work.

What ever the solution, it's going to cost more money for a generation or two. The kids should be properly assessed by psychologists /psychiatrists , figure out what works, and keep assessing them as time will change what works.

For those than want to spend $100k a year per person keeping them locked up, how about we spend that 100k a year sorting their sh!t out.

And the other reality we will have, is about 3-5% can NOT be helped....ever. WHAT do we do with this group ?

quickymart

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#3083146 1-Jun-2023 09:03

Even Peter Dunne says reinstating the prescription fee (as per Luxon and co) would be a bad idea:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/election-2023-peter-dunne-slams-national-says-christopher-luxon-at-sea-with-messy-stance-on-5-prescription-fee.html

sir1963

3239 posts

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#3083149 1-Jun-2023 09:18

quickymart:

Even Peter Dunne says reinstating the prescription fee (as per Luxon and co) would be a bad idea:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/election-2023-peter-dunne-slams-national-says-christopher-luxon-at-sea-with-messy-stance-on-5-prescription-fee.html

If it was free for community services card holders and for those under 14 it would achieve the same thing.

I am a high use patient, my maximum for a year is $100, I spend FAR more than that seeing the GP each year.

I was also told by a GP that high does of Riboflavin can help me, and they have, and I have to import these myself from the USA and that costs me way more than prescriptions do.

The ONLY thing I want to see free for everyone is birth control for everyone, condoms, the pill, what ever.

If your religion is against birth control, simple don't use it...your choice, but the reduction in costs from disease and unwanted pregnancies will be massive and should be available to everyone.

Luxon is letting his religion interfere with policy on this one.

itxtme

2102 posts

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#3083188 1-Jun-2023 10:43

sir1963:

If it was free for community services card holders and for those under 14 it would achieve the same thing.

Not true. There are barriers to getting these cards. You have to go out of your way to do it. Those barriers are worst for some of our more vulnrible patients who may have difficuly reading, filling out the forms or even understanding they are eligible.

Lets just say for a minute in some parallel universe a study was done in NZ, that looked into the cost benefit of removing the charge for prescriptions.

What if that study found strong evidence that doing so would, reduce hospitalisation and have 1:18 ratio dollar cost reduction in hospital costs. That is that for every dollar earned from the co-payment, the cost of extra hospital stays is $18. So fundamentally it costs more to keep co-payments than to stump up and pay for it.

Good news! Such a study exists in this universe. Its in part what the government used to make the policy change. Now National is suggesting if they skirt around the study method they will achieve the same result? Just braindead.

As an aside, I knew they were braindead when Nicola Willis jumped in front of the camera ASAP on budget day to suggest this was bad policy and that discount pharmacies had free prescriptions - this was the answer. No matter community pharmacies offer services that the discount pharmacies dont and cant. No matter discount pharmacies exist in very small proportions of areas around NZ. No matter strong evidence supports this policy.

National has a big problem with talking before they think under this new leadership.

sir1963

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#3083202 1-Jun-2023 11:00

itxtme:

sir1963:

If it was free for community services card holders and for those under 14 it would achieve the same thing.

Not true. There are barriers to getting these cards. You have to go out of your way to do it. Those barriers are worst for some of our more vulnrible patients who may have difficuly reading, filling out the forms or even understanding they are eligible.

Lets just say for a minute in some parallel universe a study was done in NZ, that looked into the cost benefit of removing the charge for prescriptions.

What if that study found strong evidence that doing so would, reduce hospitalisation and have 1:18 ratio dollar cost reduction in hospital costs. That is that for every dollar earned from the co-payment, the cost of extra hospital stays is $18. So fundamentally it costs more to keep co-payments than to stump up and pay for it.

Good news! Such a study exists in this universe. Its in part what the government used to make the policy change. Now National is suggesting if they skirt around the study method they will achieve the same result? Just braindead.

As an aside, I knew they were braindead when Nicola Willis jumped in front of the camera ASAP on budget day to suggest this was bad policy and that discount pharmacies had free prescriptions - this was the answer. No matter community pharmacies offer services that the discount pharmacies dont and cant. No matter discount pharmacies exist in very small proportions of areas around NZ. No matter strong evidence supports this policy.

National has a big problem with talking before they think under this new leadership.

And then on the flip side they refused to increase funding to GPs and their fees have gone up by more than $5.

That same funding has seen after hours services close, and they will no longer see non registered patients

GPs nurses are currently paid up to 20K a year below hospital nurses, when the new award gets settled there is likely to be a back pay of 60K per nurse that GPs have not been funded for.

It is getting to the point where it is financially better for GPs to remove themselves from the PHO's and simply charge full costs, it the only way to stay financially viable.

Some pharmacies already did not charge fees

That money that could have come in could have funded other medications that some people need.

We are a small country with limited income, there is NOT the money to fund everything, and yes that will mean some people will die earlier, but will also mean others get better care.

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