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SJB

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  #2978408 6-Oct-2022 21:37
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Technofreak
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  #2978849 7-Oct-2022 22:06
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Will be interesting to see how the "private armies" of Prigozhin and Kadyrov are deployed, and allied to that the continued deployment of the Russian Army in Ukraine.

Some stuff I've seen alludes to a possible battle for the control of Russia. Prigozhin and Kadyrov while are both currently Putin supporters they both individually may decide they'd ike the top job in Russia. Alongside that Putin will also need to protect his position. There is speculation that various interests are keeping soldiers under their control back from the skirmish in Ukraine to ensure they have their forces in place should they need them in Russia. Prigozhin runs the Wagner militia. Kadyrov being the Chechen warlord who has refused to provide any soldiers under Putins mobilisation plan.




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neb

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  #2978851 7-Oct-2022 22:13
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Technofreak: There is speculation that various interests are keeping soldiers under their control back from the skirmish in Ukraine to ensure they have their forces in place should they need them in Russia. Prigozhin runs the Wagner militia. Kadyrov being the Chechen warlord who has refused to provide any soldiers under Putins mobilisation plan.

 

 

That's one thing that's been a bit surprising, that places like Georgia and Chechnya haven't tried to exploit Russia's weakness. If Georgia tried to reclaim South Ossetia or Chechnya had another go at independence there's not much that Russia could do with everyone they can spare bogged down in Ukraine.

 

 

Not to mention that opening up a second front is always a huge destabilisation move for the main belligerent.

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  #2979012 8-Oct-2022 14:14
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Georgia and Chechnya,

 

Chechnya was totally and uncompromisingly crushed, Grozny and other cities a template for Mariupol.
Appointed leader has no doubt been vigilant in making sure nothing rises from ashes. 
Opposition best keeping powder dry for the moment?  Some are fighting for Ukraine.

 

Georgia has limited capability, its small.
Constant reminder is a border that Russia keeps moving.

 

Russia quietly moves border hundreds of yards into occupied Georgia
'This is a continuation of the illegal process of the so-called borderisation, which not only violates the fundamental rights of local residents but directly damages the security situation'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/russia-georgia-border-south-ossetia-move-hundreds-yards-occupied-nato-putin-west-ukraine-a7835756.html

 

Of course now Georgia has even more Russian speakers Russia may point out...
'Oh you have a lot of Russian speakers, maybe you want to be Russia'.
Locals are now getting hit with massive rent and housing cost rises as desperate Russians inflate the market.

No one wants to get caught by a change in wind leaving you exposed and alone.
Maybe Europe will tire, will want to get back to making money come winter. 


SJB

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  #2979020 8-Oct-2022 14:57
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ezbee:

 

Chechnya was totally and uncompromisingly crushed, Grozny and other cities a template for Mariupol.
Appointed leader has no doubt been vigilant in making sure nothing rises from ashes. 

 

 

Grozny seems to have been largely rebuilt. I thought it would still look devastated but a bit of googling showed a modern looking city centre.

 

Of course outside of Grozny may be a different matter.


neb

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  #2979127 8-Oct-2022 16:13
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SJB:

Grozny seems to have been largely rebuilt. I thought it would still look devastated but a bit of googling showed a modern looking city centre.

 

 

Russia poured a staggering amount of money into Grozny to clean up the mess they made including a giant mosque to try and buy off the religious side (Putin's Altar Boy Kiril must have been furious), but as you say the rest of the place is still pretty ravaged. I suspect that most Chechens know that, despite the current ceasefire, they're not going to do well under ongoing Russian control.

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  #2979139 8-Oct-2022 17:27
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Yes not the best wording.

 

As for things not rising from ashes, its more on a spiritual level.
Spirit to revolt against Russia.

 

In normal totalitarian form there was an extensive rebuild in grand style.
A kind of you can have nice things 'only' at will of dictator. 
Only those loyal will have nice things.

 

Looks like Crimean Bridge had a smoking accident, or someone made some very convincing fakes.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xyj8rb/a_video_directly_from_the_scene_on_the_crimean/

 

r/ukraine - It looks like part of the Crimean Bridge, linking Crimea to Russa has collapsed into the water.

 

 


neb

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  #2979140 8-Oct-2022 17:44
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ezbee:

Looks like Crimean Bridge had a smoking accident, or someone made some very convincing fakes.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xyj8rb/a_video_directly_from_the_scene_on_the_crimean/

 

r/ukraine - It looks like part of the Crimean Bridge, linking Crimea to Russa has collapsed into the water.

 

 

That's actually not a good thing, the bridge is the backdoor the Russians in Crimea need to get out when the Ukrainian troops arrive. Without that backdoor, they'll be motivated to fight like hell to hold on to the Mariupol land bridge.

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  #2979142 8-Oct-2022 18:45
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neb:
SJB:

 

Grozny seems to have been largely rebuilt. I thought it would still look devastated but a bit of googling showed a modern looking city centre.

 

Russia poured a staggering amount of money into Grozny to clean up the mess they made including a giant mosque to try and buy off the religious side (Putin's Altar Boy Kiril must have been furious), but as you say the rest of the place is still pretty ravaged. I suspect that most Chechens know that, despite the current ceasefire, they're not going to do well under ongoing Russian control.

 

And all the while, if Russia used its massive oil and gas resources, they could make it a great country, and also persuade outlying ex USSR places to join. But the idiot didnt. Instead the Russian Republic is poor, the citizens are poor, yet they have hundreds of billons set aside for this war chest. 


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  #2979218 8-Oct-2022 20:21
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neb:

 

That's actually not a good thing, the bridge is the backdoor the Russians in Crimea need to get out when the Ukrainian troops arrive. Without that backdoor, they'll be motivated to fight like hell to hold on to the Mariupol land bridge.

 

 

 

Or they could just leave now, because they know the Ukrainians are coming, and their back will be against a wall when they arrive.





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neb

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  #2979219 8-Oct-2022 20:26
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SaltyNZ:

Or they could just leave now, because they know the Ukrainians are coming, and their back will be against a wall when they arrive.

 

 

You have to get the timing exactly right though, not early enough that you get imprisoned or fallen-out-of-a-window for displaying insufficient loyalty but not late enough that you fail to make it out in time. Now definitely isn't the right time to leave.

 

 

Russians in Crimea should study East Prussia in 1944/45 for how to get the balance right, and in particular case studies of how not to handle it.

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  #2979227 8-Oct-2022 21:12
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neb:
ezbee:

 

Looks like Crimean Bridge had a smoking accident, or someone made some very convincing fakes.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xyj8rb/a_video_directly_from_the_scene_on_the_crimean/

 

r/ukraine - It looks like part of the Crimean Bridge, linking Crimea to Russa has collapsed into the water.

 

That's actually not a good thing, the bridge is the backdoor the Russians in Crimea need to get out when the Ukrainian troops arrive. Without that backdoor, they'll be motivated to fight like hell to hold on to the Mariupol land bridge.

 

Putting supply issues aside, I suspect that if the troops need to get out, most will be able to with ferries and other ships, but when they leave they'll end up leaving most of their heavy equipment behind. Further solidifying Russia's place as Ukraine's most important arms supplier...





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  #2979234 8-Oct-2022 21:44
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This article in the NZ Herald is saying the Russians claim it was a car bomb that damaged the bridge, but the videos I've seen show the explosion coming from under the roadway. Speculation is that carefully placed charges on the supporting piers did the damage.

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-fire-on-kerch-bridge-connecting-crimea-after-car-bomb-explosion/GREEUJH27FKGSQ6RERMFDDUUGI/

 

I wonder what Vlad the Lad will do in response? Apparently the damage is on Ukrainian territory thus not giving Putin the option of saying Russia has been attacked.





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neb

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  #2979799 9-Oct-2022 17:54
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Technofreak:

This article in the NZ Herald is saying the Russians claim it was a car bomb that damaged the bridge, but the videos I've seen show the explosion coming from under the roadway.

 

 

I wonder if they used the same explosives that were used to blow up Nordstream 1 and 2? There seem to be mysterious unattributed explosions all over the place these days.

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  #2979874 10-Oct-2022 07:40
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neb: I wonder if they used the same explosives that were used to blow up Nordstream 1 and 2? There seem to be mysterious unattributed explosions all over the place these days.

 

 

 

People are just so careless with cigarette butts. It's an accident waiting to happen.





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