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CruciasNZ
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  #2872158 21-Feb-2022 16:10
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Ukraine of 2014 and Ukraine of 2022 are vastly different countries. In 2014 the military was really for show, whereas now they are battle hardened thanks to being at war with Russia's proxies for ~ 7 years. In 2014 the population was soft, whereas now a significant chunk of the civilian population has existing militia training, or has signed up for it. I saw somewhere the statistic was 30%, but it wasn't government published so grains of salt required. Regardless, the levels of their population identifying as Ukrainian instead of Russian has boomed, though some of that might be out of fear of persecution. 

 

What 2022 Ukraine desperately needs is political weight brought to bear (which is a work in progress, Germany and France seem determined to keep shooting themselves in the foot) and more military hardware. There's been tons of military hardware being donated from all NATO, plus they've been steadily shopping for hardware over the last 7 years. 

 

Russia will still steam-roll them, they just have so much more manpower and hardware they can bring to bear. Additionally, once Putin presses the go button he can't afford to lose, and he can't afford for it to drag on long enough for the western nations to be forced into action by their constituents and treaties. So if at any point it looks like they're losing or it's becoming frozen I would expect Putin to seriously consider the use of pocket-nukes; it's a tactic Russia has in their military doctrine (escalate to deescalate) for which Ukraine has no counter and NATO is ill equipped to counter either (NATO has lots of level a city or county nukes, but very little tactical level warheads that only vaporize a few city blocks).

 

If this happens it's going to be painful for Russia both in the short and long terms, and that's before you factor in sanctions. It'll be another Afghanistan for them, rather than like Crimea or Georgia. 

 

EDIT: Dumb word choice





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Batman
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  #2872222 21-Feb-2022 19:12
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Putin doesn't care about Russia, Putin cares about Putin


elpenguino
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  #2872772 22-Feb-2022 15:13
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Putin proves everyone wrong by not invading Ukraine but instead declaring parts formerly of Ukraine independent, then sending troops to help these independent places.

 

 





Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21


billgates
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  #2872776 22-Feb-2022 15:20
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elpenguino:

 

Putin proves everyone wrong by not invading Ukraine but instead declaring parts formerly of Ukraine independent, then sending troops to help these independent places.

 

 

 

 

Putin has invaded Ukraine against international law. There is no independent region in Ukraine. Crimea and other two other regions all belong to Ukraine. I hope this time around, the west at least places hardest sanctions against Russia they can like blocking them from SWIFT banking system which will cripple Russia. 





Do whatever you want to do man.

  

insane
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  #2872800 22-Feb-2022 15:52
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Putin knows the west don't want a conflict, but also knows they NEED his oil and gas reserves.

He'll roll on in, take a large swath of land before anyone can react, but not too much to cause WWIII, and take the sanctions on the chin and make consessions on further nuclear missile development to get back into the good books.

Then rince and repeat each election cycle to ensure his people see him as a man of action.

elpenguino
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  #2872836 22-Feb-2022 17:02
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billgates:

 

elpenguino:

 

Putin proves everyone wrong by not invading Ukraine but instead declaring parts formerly of Ukraine independent, then sending troops to help these independent places.

 

 

 

 

Putin has invaded Ukraine against international law. There is no independent region in Ukraine. Crimea and other two other regions all belong to Ukraine. I hope this time around, the west at least places hardest sanctions against Russia they can like blocking them from SWIFT banking system which will cripple Russia. 

 

 

Until that international law can put Putin in a cage it is of no use to anyone.

 

There are new 'independent ' regions now - regions desperate for assistance Putin will render. I know what you're saying but possession, nine tenths etc etc.

 

I don't know if the West will be strong enough to apply even much of the sanctions it could. Will Europe rather turn off Russian gas and freeze? Ban Chelsea FC? Seize the empty mansions in Knightsbridge? Make MacDonalds withdraw? Stop building Mercs in Russia?

 

 

 

 





Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21


networkn
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  #2872838 22-Feb-2022 17:05
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billgates:

 

elpenguino:

 

Putin proves everyone wrong by not invading Ukraine but instead declaring parts formerly of Ukraine independent, then sending troops to help these independent places.

 

 

 

 

Putin has invaded Ukraine against international law. There is no independent region in Ukraine. Crimea and other two other regions all belong to Ukraine. I hope this time around, the west at least places hardest sanctions against Russia they can like blocking them from SWIFT banking system which will cripple Russia. 

 

 

In exchange he removes gas and oil from supply and stalemate.


panther2
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  #2872842 22-Feb-2022 17:16
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I bet China is watching this to see what reaction occurs

nuke737
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  #2872857 22-Feb-2022 17:38
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China would happily just sell to both sides but would much rather not have this mess to inspire more isolationism and self-sufficiency, I'd say.


  #2872880 22-Feb-2022 19:49
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elpenguino:

 

Until that international law can put Putin in a cage it is of no use to anyone.

 

There are new 'independent ' regions now - regions desperate for assistance Putin will render. I know what you're saying but possession, nine tenths etc etc.

 

I don't know if the West will be strong enough to apply even much of the sanctions it could. Will Europe rather turn off Russian gas and freeze? Ban Chelsea FC? Seize the empty mansions in Knightsbridge? Make MacDonalds withdraw? Stop building Mercs in Russia?

 

 

Ban the sale of Airbus & Boeing airliner spare parts, rotables & technical consumables.
Would reduce Russian domestic & international air transport to almost nothing in a month or so


MikeB4
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  #2872886 22-Feb-2022 20:08
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PolicyGuy:

 

 

 

Ban the sale of Airbus & Boeing airliner spare parts, rotables & technical consumables.
Would reduce Russian domestic & international air transport to almost nothing in a month or so

 

 

Trap a bear and it will break out and lash out and no one can afford that. Sanctions never affect the leaders they only affect those than can do nothing to change anything


insane
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  #2872953 22-Feb-2022 20:47
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PolicyGuy:

elpenguino:


Until that international law can put Putin in a cage it is of no use to anyone.


There are new 'independent ' regions now - regions desperate for assistance Putin will render. I know what you're saying but possession, nine tenths etc etc.


I don't know if the West will be strong enough to apply even much of the sanctions it could. Will Europe rather turn off Russian gas and freeze? Ban Chelsea FC? Seize the empty mansions in Knightsbridge? Make MacDonalds withdraw? Stop building Mercs in Russia?



Ban the sale of Airbus & Boeing airliner spare parts, rotables & technical consumables.
Would reduce Russian domestic & international air transport to almost nothing in a month or so



Are they not self sufficient with Tupolev aircraft etc. And if third world countries can reverse engineer parts etc then I'm sure the Russians have that covered. The West makes them appear inept and incapable, but reality seems anything but.

Also their new Ally China would likely be happy to help to stick it to the US

This is going to get interesting for sure

Gurezaemon

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  #2872958 22-Feb-2022 20:53
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insane:
PolicyGuy:

 

Ban the sale of Airbus & Boeing airliner spare parts, rotables & technical consumables.
Would reduce Russian domestic & international air transport to almost nothing in a month or so

 



Are they not self sufficient with Tupolev aircraft etc. And if third world countries can reverse engineer parts etc then I'm sure the Russians have that covered. The West makes them appear inept and incapable, but reality seems anything but.

Also their new Ally China would likely be happy to help to stick it to the US

This is going to get interesting for sure

 

They certainly have the technology, but good luck getting landing permissions from pretty well anywhere in the west while using reverse-engineered or otherwise non-genuine parts.





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MikeB4
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  #2872963 22-Feb-2022 21:01
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Russia has an extensive Aerospace industry covering passenger, transport, military fixed wing and rotary.


Daynger
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  #2873013 22-Feb-2022 23:35
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Looks like its kicking off.

 

Putin has declared he is sending in "peacekeepers" into Donbass region after declaring them independent states.

 

US, UK, Aus, EU have replied with sanctions.

 

China has struck back with sanctions against the USA.

 

Sharemarkets are about to take a nosedive and fuel prices are about to skyrocket.

 

 

 

This could get really spicy really quickly.


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