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ezbee
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  #2935976 29-Jun-2022 14:37
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China well more correctly the 6.5% who are CCP, like Russia its threats, brutality, more threats.
Because its that way with their own populations. 
Worse if you are ethnic minority like Xinjiang.
Who needs such large and multifaceted 'internal security' forces ? Why ?

 

Its partly why Russia can't generally mobilize as that hollows out internal security.
Expanding our Nuclear forces, if we lose face we destroy you  etc
Its tiresome

 

NATO and EU influence, well you get requirements for Rule of Law, and Anticorruption.

 

Look at how Taiwan and Korea have progressed under umbrella of US influence.
When I was a kid you might be raising an eyebrow at their authoritarian natures
Now Taiwan has a democracy anyone can be proud of. Owning up to their period of white terror.
On path to correcting wrongs against ethnic Taiwanese.
Even gay parades, Putin and his Patriarch kill to stop. 
Korea also has transitioned, still has overhang of power of Chaebols, but things take time.

 

We are overcritical of ourselves seeking instant and total perfection.
Its actually a Russian and CCP technique to encourage this, lets give up attitude.
You see it with Ukraine, arguments that go like they were not perfect so genocidal invasion is Ok.

 

Sure we need continuous improvement.
Vigilance to avoid trap of power of capital overwhelming civil power and rule of law. 
Don't throw baby out with bathwater.
One day we might all get to be like Denmark etc, step by step :-) 


SaltyNZ
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  #2936323 30-Jun-2022 09:21
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GV27:

 

I'd love to know what the Doomsday Clock would be reading if they had a meeting about it at this very moment. 

 

 

 

 

About 10 seconds to midnight I would think.





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kingdragonfly
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  #2936339 30-Jun-2022 10:02
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Unrelated currently sitting at 100 seconds to midnight.

Good website by the way. Contains information on Bio-security (COVID, Monkey pox) also.

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

elpenguino
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  #2936421 30-Jun-2022 11:52
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SaltyNZ:

 

GV27:

 

I'd love to know what the Doomsday Clock would be reading if they had a meeting about it at this very moment. 

 

 

About 10 seconds to midnight I would think.

 

 

Is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia realistic though? If Russia uses nukes on Ukraine, they escalate the war. Why would the West continue to restrain itself from helping Ukraine more widely if Russia has already escalated the conflict?

 

IMO the Russian threat of nukes is all they are good for - threatening.

 

Russia makes a lot of noises about nukes, for example, Russia threatened to move nukes to Kaliningrad.

 

https://www.courthousenews.com/russia-eu-clash-over-kaliningrad-enclave-blockade-as-war-rages-on/

 

"In recent weeks, Russia has threatened to place nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland join NATO."

 

But Russia already moved nukes to Kaliningrad years ago. Problem was, we all forgot about them.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/08/russia-confirms-deployment-of-nuclear-capable-missiles-to-kaliningrad

 

 

 

As an aside, when looking at the Russian military budget, it looks like they have spent a lot of money upgrading over the last 15 years. But a lot of this money has been spent on the nuclear forces and the navy, and these branches of the military are of no or little use in the war on Ukraine.





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freitasm
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  #2936423 30-Jun-2022 11:55
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All politics aside, the way I see it is a country that invaded another country without provocation. There should be no way that the rest of the world stays on the side and say "Yeah, let them resolve the situation"

 

There should be a lesson for every idiot thinking of doing this: if you start a war without provocation, you are ruined. 

 

It's like being at school and seeing the bully beating up the introverts and doing nothing.

 

 





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GV27
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  #2936428 30-Jun-2022 12:05
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elpenguino:

 

As an aside, when looking at the Russian military budget, it looks like they have spent a lot of money upgrading over the last 15 years. But a lot of this money has been spent on the nuclear forces and the navy, and these branches of the military are of no or little use in the war on Ukraine.

 

 

That does little to reassure me, funnily enough!


SaltyNZ
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  #2936431 30-Jun-2022 12:20
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elpenguino:

 

Is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia realistic though? If Russia uses nukes on Ukraine, they escalate the war.

 

 

 

 

You'd like to think so, but if Putin is dying anyway as lots of reports suggest then why would he give a function whether the rest of the planet is a smoking ruin at the end? Use of nuclear weapons is never a rational answer, so it would be a very dangerous assumption to think he wouldn't use them.

 

I personally don't think he will, and furthermore that if he did order it then he would find himself suiciding by three bullets to the back of the head and a ten-story swan dive before the order was fully out of his mouth because the despot-in-waiting doesn't want to live in a nuclear winter wonderland. There's also a decent chance that most of the warheads are about as useful as bags of sawdust after decades of corruption anyway.

 

But I don't think it can be entirely taken for granted. Is it realistic? No ... but it's not not realistic either.





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SaltyNZ
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  #2936432 30-Jun-2022 12:21
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freitasm:

 

All politics aside, the way I see it is a country that invaded another country without provocation. There should be no way that the rest of the world stays on the side and say "Yeah, let them resolve the situation"

 

There should be a lesson for every idiot thinking of doing this: if you start a war without provocation, you are ruined. 

 

It's like being at school and seeing the bully beating up the introverts and doing nothing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, I'm sure all the western intelligence services are blanketing all the back channels with the 'this can all end if you just ...' offers.





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Sideface
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  #2936455 30-Jun-2022 13:00
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BBC News - Ukraine war: US to ramp up military presence across Europe

 

today

 


The US will increase its military presence across Europe as NATO agreed a "fundamental shift" in its response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

A permanent army headquarters will be created in Poland, while new US warships will go to Spain, fighter jets to the UK and ground troops to Romania.

 

Mr Biden said NATO was "needed now more than it has ever been".

 

The alliance is having its biggest overhaul since the Cold War, NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said. ...

 

NATO 2022 STRATEGIC CONCEPT

 

In an 11-page document, NATO's updated Strategic Concept explains how the alliance views the threats facing western democracies and how it plans to deal with them.

 

The Russian Federation, it says, is the most significant and direct threat to allies' security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.

 

In reference to President Putin's repeated reminders that he's got a large arsenal of nuclear weapons, NATO points to its own formidable nuclear deterrent.

 

If anyone used nuclear weapons against the alliance, the document says, then it has the capabilities and resolve to impose "unacceptable" costs on an adversary. ...

 

 

 

 

 

Cold War II has arrived.





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neb

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  #2936605 30-Jun-2022 18:11
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elpenguino:

Is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia realistic though?

 

 

Not as long as they're "winning", by whatever they're defining as winning this week. If Ukraine throws them back too hard or too far, that's another story.

 

 

Problem is that Donbas is sort of the equivalent of the Ruhr mid-last-century for Germany, Ukraine really can't afford to let Russia keep that for too long.

tdgeek
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  #2936617 30-Jun-2022 18:45
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neb:
elpenguino:

 

Is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia realistic though?

 

Not as long as they're "winning", by whatever they're defining as winning this week. If Ukraine throws them back too hard or too far, that's another story. Problem is that Donbas is sort of the equivalent of the Ruhr mid-last-century for Germany, Ukraine really can't afford to let Russia keep that for too long.

 

Putin has a dream, USSR 2.0 If he used a nuke, thats free reign for a response, goodbye Russia let alone USSR 2.0. I can see why the West has held back, but now, its gone too far, all that has done is arm Putin with impunity. MF's school analogy is on point. To add insult to injury Putin blames NATO, yet NATO had done little forever, its a friend help friend mechanism, But Putin and China see NATO as the aggressor, which is tripe. Russia and China are proven aggressors. China is expanding its influence to Asia/Pacific, yet they dont want anyone to respond, same deal. 

 

A line has to be drawn.China and Russia can do whatever they want, in their own borders. 


Batman
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  #2936776 1-Jul-2022 07:32
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the way things are going, RUssia is going to take one town at a time until they decide they've had enough

 

no one else seems to have any say in this other than at the sole discretion of one mr Putin


Tinkerisk
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  #2937565 2-Jul-2022 19:05
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tdgeek:

 

A line has to be drawn.China and Russia can do whatever they want, in their own borders. 

 

 

Feel free! Send your nuclear power, combat technology and troops!

 

But don't make a mess of OUR front yard, we don't like that. ;-)

 

 

 

Year, short break for some ads

 

What would you like us to send next? Should we do another Blitzkrieg (don‘t remind us)?

 

It should be clear to every idiot that Ukraine has no chance against Russia in a total escalation in the long term simply because of the majority. The question of whether military support for Ukraine only prolongs the suffering of the civilian population is not unjustified - even if this should strengthen a possible negotiating position for Ukraine in peace negotiations (similar to the Finnish-Russian winter war of 1937).

 

Behind the scenes.

 

Of course, Ukraine can be armed like steroids, but that would only be a proxy war of technologies. Even if Putin were to leave, he will eventually return with his new (if necessary by China) upgraded technology.





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tdgeek
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  #2937704 3-Jul-2022 07:33
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Batman:

 

the way things are going, RUssia is going to take one town at a time until they decide they've had enough

 

no one else seems to have any say in this other than at the sole discretion of one mr Putin

 

 

Yep, he is calling all the shots, and everyone is following. Its one thing that he invades, and the world takes caution by just supplying UKR with firepower, but right now, Russia is just levelling UKR, turning it into a wasteland. 


tdgeek
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  #2937705 3-Jul-2022 07:47
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Tinkerisk:

 

tdgeek:

 

A line has to be drawn.China and Russia can do whatever they want, in their own borders. 

 

 

Feel free! Send your nuclear power, combat technology and troops!

 

But don't make a mess of OUR front yard, we don't like that. ;-)

 

 

 

Year, short break for some ads

 

What would you like us to send next? Should we do another Blitzkrieg (don‘t remind us)?

 

It should be clear to every idiot that Ukraine has no chance against Russia in a total escalation in the long term simply because of the majority. The question of whether military support for Ukraine only prolongs the suffering of the civilian population is not unjustified - even if this should strengthen a possible negotiating position for Ukraine in peace negotiations (similar to the Finnish-Russian winter war of 1937).

 

Behind the scenes.

 

Of course, Ukraine can be armed like steroids, but that would only be a proxy war of technologies. Even if Putin were to leave, he will eventually return with his new (if necessary by China) upgraded technology.

 

 

What is your solution? I guess if UKR gave up the Donbas, and Russia moved out, thats probably acceptable. Until the next move. If UKR hurriedly joined NATO, or got some level of interim membership that meant the NATO partners would step in, thats possibly a sound situation? 


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