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Tinkerisk
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  #2937712 3-Jul-2022 08:47
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tdgeek:

 

What is your solution? I guess if UKR gave up the Donbas, and Russia moved out, thats probably acceptable. Until the next move. If UKR hurriedly joined NATO, or got some level of interim membership that meant the NATO partners would step in, thats possibly a sound situation? 

 

 

Solution? Why do WE have to militarily solve this struggle for freedom that we didn't start? Bringing Ukraine into NATO would be a presale ticket for a proper war, since the alliance would certainly occur and nobody is really enthusiastic about that - hence "only" the economic sanctions of the EU (yes, I‘m quite sure China will compensate that), aid deliveries and refugee admissions (Germany now has pretty much all nationalities worldwide conflicts and expulsions included, that cannot continue indefinitely).

 

Since the USA is also involved in a NATO alliance case, China would also be involved and we would have a proper, unpredictable conflict, if not WW III. And what is all this for? Even if Putin were to withdraw after a ceasefire agreement with the UKR because he probably doesn't have the right equipment in his box at the moment - he'll get it somewhere else and come back later. He will never accept knowing former USSR claim areas under the influence of a western alliance. He will argue that NATO is circling around as an aggressor on ("his" former) territory of the USSR and then uses this as a pretext for a "defensive strike", especially since he already has to swallow a NATO expansion/shift of interests with Finland and Sweden. But they both have been EU members since 1995 and are not at war with Russia - he cannot provoke much with that alone. Finland has already trained 280,000 active soldiers and a further 870,000 reservists who can be activated in its national defense program based on the experience it has gained.

 

 





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tdgeek
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  #2937761 3-Jul-2022 09:07
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So, as UKR is nothing to do with us (the world), that we should not be militarily supporting that conflict, let countries sort out their own issues? In this case, Russia would take over UKR, and life goes on. Then again and again. To me, there are issues with that. It allows any country to take over whoever it wants. It also means that its not fair for friends to help friends. But if you are the aggressor, such as Russia, its ok if your friend, China helps out? But its not ok for friends of UKR, and independent nation to get help from its own friends? If NATO got directly involved, that would escalate matters. But if no one got directly involved that gives impunity to Russia, causes more war and more deaths, and in 12 months its still going

 

End of the day no one should have free reign to attack whoever it wants.Its 2022 not 1622

 

So what if Putin thinks the West is taking over? They aren't. NATO since its inception has had very little involvement militarily. A bit like the nuclear deterrent, its there to stop issues, and that prevention is far better than a cure. NATO isnt there as the development forum to attack and take over Russia. 


gzt

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  #2937772 3-Jul-2022 09:56
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There is an awful lot of bed wetting in this topic about China. The reality is very different:

AsiaFinancial: The US, in a rare agreement with China, has acknowledged that Beijing is not evading sanctions against Russia or providing military aid to Moscow, a senior official said on Thursday.

Minor issues have occurred with individual companies and not much else.

Tinkerisk
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  #2937773 3-Jul-2022 09:57
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tdgeek:

 

So, as UKR is nothing to do with us (the world), that we should not be militarily supporting that conflict, let countries sort out their own issues? In this case, Russia would take over UKR, and life goes on. Then again and again. To me, there are issues with that. It allows any country to take over whoever it wants. It also means that its not fair for friends to help friends. But if you are the aggressor, such as Russia, its ok if your friend, China helps out? But its not ok for friends of UKR, and independent nation to get help from its own friends? If NATO got directly involved, that would escalate matters. But if no one got directly involved that gives impunity to Russia, causes more war and more deaths, and in 12 months its still going

 

End of the day no one should have free reign to attack whoever it wants.Its 2022 not 1622

 

So what if Putin thinks the West is taking over? They aren't. NATO since its inception has had very little involvement militarily. A bit like the nuclear deterrent, its there to stop issues, and that prevention is far better than a cure. NATO isnt there as the development forum to attack and take over Russia. 

 

 

I am completely with you morally and it is a violation of international law. But we don't have to be made good friends that quickly either - after all, Russian is spoken in the Ukraine, we're not neighbors and we still have a tiny little history because of the last German school trip to Moscow on chains, where we didn't have any such made a good impression. It disturbs us a little that our high-tech guns are being used by the former enemy to defend them against their former ally, and this already shows what a paradoxical construct prevails there. The problem with Putin is that the UKR is not at all acceptable for state sovereignty and that in turn means that it can only be brought to him militarily - he is not really accessible to diplomacy in this regard. So, and that in turn almost certainly means war as a consequence. Russia isn't a democracy and the democratic thinking we've been taught doesn't work for them - three times not for Putin.





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Tinkerisk
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  #2937775 3-Jul-2022 10:10
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gzt: There is an awful lot of bed wetting in this topic about China. The reality is very different:

AsiaFinancial: The US, in a rare agreement with China, has acknowledged that Beijing is not evading sanctions against Russia or providing military aid to Moscow, a senior official said on Thursday.

Minor issues have occurred with individual companies and not much else.

 

I‘m not sure one can call it bed wetting. Well, you won't know until you've tried it. You can send off your expeditionary force 3.0 again. I'm not a diplomat, but as far as I know, the US and China aren't exactly the best of friends. Future wars are mainly about resources and if you can clarify that at the same time? And then there's also the one in North Korea, which doesn't have much to offer technologically, but is always available for a fast rocket launch ;-)

 

 





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Daynger
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  #2937872 3-Jul-2022 13:29
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Tinkerisk:

 

tdgeek:

 

A line has to be drawn.China and Russia can do whatever they want, in their own borders. 

 

 

Feel free! Send your nuclear power, combat technology and troops!

 

But don't make a mess of OUR front yard, we don't like that. ;-)

 

 

 

Year, short break for some ads

 

What would you like us to send next? Should we do another Blitzkrieg (don‘t remind us)?

 

It should be clear to every idiot that Ukraine has no chance against Russia in a total escalation in the long term simply because of the majority. The question of whether military support for Ukraine only prolongs the suffering of the civilian population is not unjustified - even if this should strengthen a possible negotiating position for Ukraine in peace negotiations (similar to the Finnish-Russian winter war of 1937).

 

Behind the scenes.

 

Of course, Ukraine can be armed like steroids, but that would only be a proxy war of technologies. Even if Putin were to leave, he will eventually return with his new (if necessary by China) upgraded technology.

 

 

 

 

You sound exactly like the apologists for Hitler did in the 30s.

 

Putin is using the exact same strategies as Hitler after he rose to power, make a demand then threaten war if the demand is not catered to.

 

Oh you are moving your military into the Rhineland/Crimea because you can.

 

Oh, now you want to annex Austria/Ukraine as you see it as historically yours anyway.

 

Now its on the the Sudetenland/Kaliningrad.

 

May as well make that the whole of Czechoslovakia/Lithuania.

 

Still the appeasers do nothing, might as well drive into Poland too.....


Tinkerisk
3380 posts

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  #2937899 3-Jul-2022 15:24
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Daynger:

 

You sound exactly like the apologists for Hitler did in the 30s.

 

Putin is using the exact same strategies as Hitler after he rose to power, make a demand then threaten war if the demand is not catered to.

 

 

Oh, another long-distance expert. Ever heard of sarcasm? And you probably know General Frost (if you don't, he killed Napoleon and Hitler). And there would be a tiny difference to 1812 and 1939... Putin just happens to have a few nuclear weapons and you don't (neither do we, by the way). You sound as tactically qualified as your tour guides in 1915 at Gallipoli, which worries me a lot more. So who pushed you that you wobble? Who are you to call for war in foreign countries from a safe distance - are you bored?





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tdgeek
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  #2937928 3-Jul-2022 17:31
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Tinkerisk:

 

Oh, another long-distance expert. Ever heard of sarcasm? And you probably know General Frost (if you don't, he killed Napoleon and Hitler). And there would be a tiny difference to 1812 and 1939... Putin just happens to have a few nuclear weapons and you don't (neither do we, by the way). You sound as tactically qualified as your tour guides in 1915 at Gallipoli, which worries me a lot more. So who pushed you that you wobble? Who are you to call for war in foreign countries from a safe distance - are you bored?

 

 

I get that. Im in the middle. We cant allow people like Putin to have immunity (which he clearly does right now) and we cant just roll on in and go hard at him. Im unsure what the middle ground is. And if Putin continues to be allowed immunity, that plays into China, who could go after Taiwan and expect a similar response, i.e. dissatisfaction from the West, and just a supply of munitions. We could then end up with a Russia (already provided with power by the West) and China (already has power over the West) in a Russia/China Cold War of sorts.


Tinkerisk
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  #2937960 3-Jul-2022 19:25
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What we are currently learning in Germany, for example, is that we rested too much on the peace we have known up to now and were no longer prepared for a serious threat from the East. This is also being corrected as quickly as possible by the events in the Ukraine. Ukraine alone wants 100 of those howitzers from us in the short term. We only have that many ourselves and maybe someone will think about the fact that we first have to iron out our own deficits before we give away weapons to every conflict or go to war with waving flags? Our Parliament has only just approved a special armaments budget of EUR 100 billion and due to past failures it is urgently needed before we can help others in any way. Maybe this could be a reason why our arms manufacturers don't get an export license? Honi soit qui mal y pense (a rogue who thinks evil of it).

 

We certainly don't piss our pants and we also have the right technique to pull teeth - but I'm starting to get tired of being the paymaster for everything and everyone in the world. Incidentally, it is already clear who will have to rebuild Ukraine and who will pay (again) for it: not Putin.





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Ge0rge
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  #2937964 3-Jul-2022 19:37
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Tinkerisk:

 

(snip)... Maybe this could be a reason why our arms manufacturers don't get an export license?...

 

 

 

 

Could also possibly be to do with a particular German arms exporter selling arms to foreign countries without the knowledge of your government too...


tdgeek
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  #2937966 3-Jul-2022 19:44
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Tinkerisk:

 

What we are currently learning in Germany, for example, is that we rested too much on the peace we have known up to now and were no longer prepared for a serious threat from the East. This is also being corrected as quickly as possible by the events in the Ukraine. Ukraine alone wants 100 of those howitzers from us in the short term. We only have that many ourselves and maybe someone will think about the fact that we first have to iron out our own deficits before we give away weapons to every conflict or go to war with waving flags? Our Parliament has only just approved a special armaments budget of EUR 100 billion and due to past failures it is urgently needed before we can help others in any way. Maybe this could be a reason why our arms manufacturers don't get an export license? Honi soit qui mal y pense (a rogue who thinks evil of it).

 

We certainly don't piss our pants and we also have the right technique to pull teeth - but I'm starting to get tired of being the paymaster for everything and everyone in the world. Incidentally, it is already clear who will have to rebuild Ukraine and who will pay (again) for it: not Putin.

 

 

Yep. While conflicts are not new, Im hoping that this one will change matters. Permanent sanctions on Russia. Letting others (well probably other Russians) know that a 4 day special military operation will cost big. If this all ended tomorrow with a "here is Donbas, enjoy", agreement, Id expect Russian sanctions to remain. They have to. The remedy is a real leader, doesnt need to be democratic, but someone who leads for the 150 million people, not just one


gzt

gzt
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  #2937971 3-Jul-2022 20:13
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tdgeek: Putin continues to be allowed immunity, that plays into China, who could go after Taiwan and expect a similar response, i.e. dissatisfaction from the West, and just a supply of munitions.

Immunity? This comment is inaccurate in the extreme.The economy of Russia is badly affected by sanctions. NATO remains a solid European alliance. The strategic situation of Taiwan and China is entirely different and is hardly affected by the situation in Ukraine. Taiwan's strategic situation would require much more than a supply of munitions and everyone who can identify Taiwan on a map can figure that out.

tdgeek
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  #2937979 3-Jul-2022 20:53
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gzt:
tdgeek: Putin continues to be allowed immunity, that plays into China, who could go after Taiwan and expect a similar response, i.e. dissatisfaction from the West, and just a supply of munitions.

Immunity? This comment is inaccurate in the extreme.The economy of Russia is badly affected by sanctions. NATO remains a solid European alliance. The strategic situation of Taiwan and China is entirely different and is hardly affected by the situation in Ukraine. Taiwan's strategic situation would require much more than a supply of munitions and everyone who can identify Taiwan on a map can figure that out.

 

Inaccurate?? How so?  How badly affected is the economy? Well, there economy is sh!te already, the GDP is lower than Italy. All that matters is cash for guns. They still reap gazillions for oil and gas. China and India, Brazil, South Africa (BRICS) are a steady supply for the economy

 

I doubt that Taiwan is entirely different. Hong Kong is now taken over by another dictator, one who also fawns over its "territories" Ukraine isnt in the EU or NATO, neither is Taiwan. Its a similar formula, and one where the hands off support by Ukraine's friends would be expected for Taiwan, as a precedent. Bidens says the opposite, but who is more powerful? A large but economically weak Russia , or China? Who has more impact on the world economy? China. Weekly we see responses from China to any comments about their actions in the Pacific, and about their friend Russia who is hard done by, by the West.

 

Yes, I can figure out where Taiwan is on a map. There is more to play out there. 


Tinkerisk
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  #2937983 3-Jul-2022 21:16
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Just in time …

 

... and concerning a 4 days of special operation ;-)

 

… I was told that the 10 days of training of artillery experienced soldiers on the delivered PzH 2000 estimated by the Ukraine turned into 38 days due to its technical complexity and extreme capabilities.





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neb

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  #2938001 3-Jul-2022 22:19
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Tinkerisk:

… I was told that the 10 days of training of artillery experienced soldiers on the delivered PzH 2000 estimated by the Ukraine turned into 38 days due to its technical complexity and extreme capabilities.

 

 

Well of course, you don't get to learn to do this standard German tank exercise overnight:

 

 

 

 

For starters, you have to learn to do it with kvass.

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