Did they forget the Greens? 
I'm no UK election expert just looking at page below I got idea the article missed something.

Looking at % from 
https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/results

Conservatives at     23.7%               
Reform at              14.3%   =  38

Labour at               33.7% 
Greens at                6.7%   =  40.4

If Reform had an overhang it would still be corrected back to %

If Conservatives can bring themselves to sign up for Nigel Farage and much that comes with him.
Nigel not being much into compromise.

Liberal Democrats at  12.2% to decide.
My understanding is they would have a very hard time living with Reform and vice versa. 

So Labour would have a decent chance given its a moderate Labour with Jeremy out.
To get at least some sort of support from Liberal Democrats ?

If they had a threshold like us Scottish National Party at 2.5% 
If they won a seat on their own then they would be in or out on threshold if not.
They too seem more able to do deal with Labour than any Government with Farage. 

Not accounting for the odd independent winning a seat like Jeremy Corban.
Who would support?

My pence worth