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4570 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2155936 7-Jan-2019 17:57
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Lastman:
quickymart:

 

Sure, they could get a cable out there themselves but the cost would be prohibitive for most people and they would probably make do with a (far cheaper) alternative - wireless or copper, for example.

 



Exactly, and that raises another issue to deal with. I believe the main fibre roll-out was going to require users pay for their connections to the house? And then that changed to free because, well, basic economics will mean people will pay for the connection only when they actually want it or can afford it and very few would take up the offer quickly.

The same would apply for rural if you were to expect a contribution for connections.

 

I don't think you're quite getting the point I'm trying to make. For the majority of people, they won't be able to afford to contribute just to get fibre installed - the costs would run into six figures for most (rural) locations, and I doubt many farmers will have that much cash just sitting around doing nothing, hence why they would look at other options.


236 posts

Master Geek


  # 2155944 7-Jan-2019 18:06
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quickymart:

Lastman:
quickymart:


Sure, they could get a cable out there themselves but the cost would be prohibitive for most people and they would probably make do with a (far cheaper) alternative - wireless or copper, for example.




Exactly, and that raises another issue to deal with. I believe the main fibre roll-out was going to require users pay for their connections to the house? And then that changed to free because, well, basic economics will mean people will pay for the connection only when they actually want it or can afford it and very few would take up the offer quickly.

The same would apply for rural if you were to expect a contribution for connections.


I don't think you're quite getting the point I'm trying to make. For the majority of people, they won't be able to afford to contribute just to get fibre installed - the costs would run into six figures for most (rural) locations, and I doubt many farmers will have that much cash just sitting around doing nothing, hence why they would look at other options.



As I said there would be a very low uptake of urban on the same basis, If it is extended, it will be the high density areas first and this is, obviously a long term process.

 
 
 
 




4570 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2155968 7-Jan-2019 19:56
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But it's not the same basis, so I don't know why you think it's going to happen that way? I doubt the network will be extended much further than it is - it's already going to a lot of smaller towns under UFB2.


236 posts

Master Geek


  # 2155975 7-Jan-2019 20:09
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quickymart:

But it's not the same basis, so I don't know why you think it's going to happen that way? I doubt the network will be extended much further than it is - it's already going to a lot of smaller towns under UFB2.



I think I’ve explained that generally in the thread. It’s not much use flogging a dead horse. In the course of time, I’ll be proved right or wrong.



4570 posts

Uber Geek


  # 2156083 8-Jan-2019 08:14
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I'll be absolutely stunned if fibre is extended to everywhere (including all rural areas) like you seem to think it will be. Not to say that I think it would be a bad idea per se (I think it would be awesome if everyone in the country had access to fibre) but unless the cost is driven down massively, or the power company thing suggested on the last page comes to fruition, I don't see it happening.


236 posts

Master Geek


  # 2156090 8-Jan-2019 08:30
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quickymart:

I'll be absolutely stunned if fibre is extended to everywhere (including all rural areas) like you seem to think it will be.



I did caveat it about the extreme connections but they would represent a fraction of one percent of the pop. , and likely will seek their own solutions/fibre if they need it.

I just think the country is very connected with backhaul type fibre now ( chorus claim another 3500km under the RBI, but likely that includes town links) and the cost of accessing it via power lines is likely feasible.

6615 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2156141 8-Jan-2019 09:00
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quickymart:

 

I'll be absolutely stunned if fibre is extended to everywhere (including all rural areas) like you seem to think it will be. Not to say that I think it would be a bad idea per se (I think it would be awesome if everyone in the country had access to fibre) but unless the cost is driven down massively, or the power company thing suggested on the last page comes to fruition, I don't see it happening.

 

 

 

 

I think the whole idea about this "ripoff" "inferior to fibre" "second class citizen" rural wireless stuff is so these people will have a form of high speed because fibre will NOT be deployed there. I hope fibre is not deployed in a rural area, there are many things this country needs money spent on and overlapping a great wireless network is not one of them. 

Pretty sure if people use their eyes and read the Crown Fibre Holdings website about the next 20+ years of NZ internet 99% of what has been said in this thread would have been answered. But you can't trust people who have a clouded view of reality to go out and research this themselves then accept the facts. Much more fruitful complaining on a tech forum to people who are quoting a website with facts on it.


 
 
 
 


19 posts

Geek


  # 2156190 8-Jan-2019 10:02
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What I do find interesting is that Chorus is planning to invest money (eg eDMR, VDSL2, ADSL2) in areas that are scheduled to also get RCG mobile coverage. Before this bounty of broadband arrives the WISPs aren’t interested in providing coverage because they know they will eventually be competing against subsidised operators.


257 posts

Ultimate Geek


  # 2156199 8-Jan-2019 10:21
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tim0001:

 

What I do find interesting is that Chorus is planning to invest money (eg eDMR, VDSL2, ADSL2) in areas that are scheduled to also get RCG mobile coverage. Before this bounty of broadband arrives the WISPs aren’t interested in providing coverage because they know they will eventually be competing against subsidised operators.

 

 

I think it is mostly about removing all the legacy network for various reasons, mostly around cost and support/spares I would assume. 

 

I did wonder if the RCG angle did play into it or the timing. They will have it done before many of the RCG sites are online from what I can tell.
The money Chorus is putting in is all there own there is no govt funding.

 

My maths there are around 10,000* customers currently on legacy broadband, if they sell each circuit for $45 per month to the ISP, that is about 5.4 million per year.

 

*Based on the number of BUBA connections around mid 2018

 

There is also a good chance to win back a number of customers on fixed wireless too.

 

 

 

I often see complaints and some rural facebook pages about the data caps certainly with kids and families on fixed wireless. Generally most of them say the speeds are good but the cap is a big issue and has meant many have moved back to copper.

 

When Chorus upgraded Huia in West Auckland to fibre backhaul and VDSL with vectoring a large number of people moved off fixed wireless and back onto copper as the service was faster, did not slow down during peak times and had no cap.

 

I have seen plenty of complaints around NZ during the summer break about how slow the mobile data network has been in various holiday spots.

 

As far as WISPs go, they have been given a number of sites around the country to expand. I understand these will not compete with RCG for rural broadband but don't forget there were 2 programs.

 

Rural Broadband for people at home / work / farm (which maybe RCG or a WISP) and Mobile blackspot funding (RCG only) for State Highways and Tourists spots which is all about proving service for your mobile phone.


6615 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2156207 8-Jan-2019 10:36
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tim0001:

 

What I do find interesting is that Chorus is planning to invest money (eg eDMR, VDSL2, ADSL2) in areas that are scheduled to also get RCG mobile coverage. Before this bounty of broadband arrives the WISPs aren’t interested in providing coverage because they know they will eventually be competing against subsidised operators.

 

 

 

 

A lot of this is due to an investment by default in the area. E.g a school/industry/RBI upgrade would do it.
The whole RBI scheme also focuses around better connecting our rural areas and in some cases to serve RBI gear they run a new connection that may pass some Chorus sites or however and it's only logical to deploy higher end DSL services on existing copper as it provides a great service and also relieves the local RBI network so the ones which need the speed have less contention and less contention means future is brighter for more data caps.


236 posts

Master Geek


  # 2156363 8-Jan-2019 12:40
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I hope fibre is not deployed in a rural area, there are many things this country needs money spent on and overlapping a great wireless network is not one of them.


The fibre roll-out has cost $1.5 billion, about $1100 per household and of that only 600 million is not recoverable. (Sorry, reading off a website, I know you hate that.) It is a great value investment in the future economic and social needs of the country. Should the capacity levels of fibre become a common norm or need in society I can’t see how you can exclude that from a population the size of Christchurch when meeting that need may follow similar economics.

If you are worried about the integrity of the nation’s purse, compare that to the $700 each (often wealthy) retired couple receives on top of their pension each year, for home heating, or the vast sums of other social spending of similarly questionable value.

6615 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2156378 8-Jan-2019 13:15
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Lastman:
I hope fibre is not deployed in a rural area, there are many things this country needs money spent on and overlapping a great wireless network is not one of them.


The fibre roll-out has cost $1.5 billion, about $1100 per household and of that only 600 million is not recoverable. (Sorry, reading off a website, I know you hate that.) It is a great value investment in the future economic and social needs of the country. Should the capacity levels of fibre become a common norm or need in society I can’t see how you can exclude that from a population the size of Christchurch when meeting that need may follow similar economics.

If you are worried about the integrity of the nation’s purse, compare that to the $700 each (often wealthy) retired couple receives on top of their pension each year, for home heating, or the vast sums of other social spending of similarly questionable value.

 

I'm sure we can all find something we don't like about our nations budget. Ya lost me but I think you are still arguing that fibre will one day be rolled out to every house in NZ from Bluff to Cape Reinga regardless of location or cost. People have already spoken about cost per meter, wireless technologies and much more. Anyway, I wish you the very best of luck with that lol.


2792 posts

Uber Geek

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  # 2156421 8-Jan-2019 14:21
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atomeara: My maths there are around 10,000* customers currently on legacy broadband, if they sell each circuit for $45 per month to the ISP, that is about 5.4 million per year.

 

*Based on the number of BUBA connections around mid 2018

 

There is also a good chance to win back a number of customers on fixed wireless too.

 

Spark had the vast majority of BUBA connections (I think it was around 75%) when I was there last year in comparison to all the other RSPs as it would be my guess that the other RSPs were looking to decommission their BUBA Handovers and L2TP gear as there is a diminishing return on running dedicated gear just for a handful of customers. It also made sense for Spark to move customers onto Fixed Wireless as they didn't have to pay the Chorus Wholesale input cost that way. So all the low hanging fruit had already been moved before that sub 10k came into play as there had been a LOT of modeling work done and enticement to move customers as the BUBA experience in general especially on a Conklin is pretty rubbish.

 

Having visited Hot Water Beach this summer and saw the Conklin cabinet there and thought even though Chorus Fibre is 3km away on the main road is it really justified to fixed broadband in there for a transient population that only hangs around for 2-3 hours before leaving? I think there used to be a Spark Free Wifi AP in there before it was taken out because the broadband experience there was just so bad.

 

I think your optimistic $5.4M wouldn't scratch the surface of the cost to replace the gear even with a 10 year payback for Chorus. I heard some big numbers as I thought there were at least 400 DSALMs of various types out there, that's a whole lot of fibre or eDMR to replace those for many that had less than 20 or even 10 connections on them. 

 

The main problem is all the low hanging fruit for Chorus to get off BUBA has already been hit, so it's a diminishing returns the further they go.

 

I always wished that Chorus could just say "Sorry we are shutting down BUBA and not offering service anymore but here is the cost to upgrade your cabinet" and see if any communities wanted to crowd fund it. But with that they would still pay the regulated price for broadband which always got people up in arms.






6615 posts

Uber Geek
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  # 2156427 8-Jan-2019 14:32
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BarTender:

 

I always wished that Chorus could just say "Sorry we are shutting down BUBA and not offering service anymore but here is the cost to upgrade your cabinet" and see if any communities wanted to crowd fund it. But with that they would still pay the regulated price for broadband which always got people up in arms.

 

 

Then those communities will most definitely have a genuine economic requirement, Because the funding came from with in the local economy and not the "I can't stream netflix at 8PM" charity. 


257 posts

Ultimate Geek


  # 2156441 8-Jan-2019 14:41
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BarTender:

 

atomeara: My maths there are around 10,000* customers currently on legacy broadband, if they sell each circuit for $45 per month to the ISP, that is about 5.4 million per year.

 

*Based on the number of BUBA connections around mid 2018

 

There is also a good chance to win back a number of customers on fixed wireless too.

 

Spark had the vast majority of BUBA connections (I think it was around 75%) when I was there last year in comparison to all the other RSPs as it would be my guess that the other RSPs were looking to decommission their BUBA Handovers and L2TP gear as there is a diminishing return on running dedicated gear just for a handful of customers. It also made sense for Spark to move customers onto Fixed Wireless as they didn't have to pay the Chorus Wholesale input cost that way. So all the low hanging fruit had already been moved before that sub 10k came into play as there had been a LOT of modeling work done and enticement to move customers as the BUBA experience in general especially on a Conklin is pretty rubbish.

 

Having visited Hot Water Beach this summer and saw the Conklin cabinet there and thought even though Chorus Fibre is 3km away on the main road is it really justified to fixed broadband in there for a transient population that only hangs around for 2-3 hours before leaving? I think there used to be a Spark Free Wifi AP in there before it was taken out because the broadband experience there was just so bad.

 

I think your optimistic $5.4M wouldn't scratch the surface of the cost to replace the gear even with a 10 year payback for Chorus. I heard some big numbers as I thought there were at least 400 DSALMs of various types out there, that's a whole lot of fibre or eDMR to replace those for many that had less than 20 or even 10 connections on them. 

 

The main problem is all the low hanging fruit for Chorus to get off BUBA has already been hit, so it's a diminishing returns the further they go.

 

I always wished that Chorus could just say "Sorry we are shutting down BUBA and not offering service anymore but here is the cost to upgrade your cabinet" and see if any communities wanted to crowd fund it. But with that they would still pay the regulated price for broadband which always got people up in arms.

 

 

I was not suggesting 5.4 million would cover the costs of upgrade, that is by my calculations about how much money the remaining 10,000 BUBA customers could bring in to Chorus per year.

 

Based on $45 per connection * 10,000 * 12 months

 

 

 

There are around 350 cabinets left to go.

 

156 by Sept 2019 (funding appears to be committed for all of these)

 

195 by Sept 2020 

 

8 show as not planned. I assume they will get upgraded, moved to another cabinet or turned off if there are no customers on them.

 

 

 

I don't think Chorus can withdraw DSL for customers with it currently can they?

 

 

 

Looking at the details for Hot Water Beach, that looks like it is just a PCM cabinet, CCM maps and wireline both show the Broadband cabinet servicing Hot Water Beach is the fibre fed one on the main road.


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