Sky announced performance numbers and drops HD Ticket Fee

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#2192400 6-Mar-2019 16:22

networkn:

tdgeek:

An RSP is the logical choice, but the Voda decision set a precedent. The share price is a nice cheap purchase, the level of profitability that is required has dropped a lot. Maybe an Amazon who can buy the 3/4 million subscribers and current rights. If Spark fails to fire, Sky will be worth more, if Spark does very well, the Sky shares go further south. Still plenty of risk here still. An Amazon could come her and just break Sky, then Skys shareholders will want a takeover. Lots of options = volatile

Why would Amazon buy Sky, they are very different delivery systems. I couldn't imagine them having any interest. The profit they would make vs the committment to traditional delivery systems (ie sat) would be way out of whack and the transition would be pitiful slow and painful with all current progress toward SVOD being abandoned in favour of the Sky model.

There has been talk of Amazon coming here and sport. Im sure sport is a crown jewell everywhere, people pay anything to watch it. Taking over Sky means they write a cheque (lots actually) move in, and they are Amazon NZ, a ready made business. They can then focus on sport, sell off assets, over time migrate people off satellite (yes, they have re signed, I don't know what terms) and bundle Sky and Amazon content, dropping what they feel they dont need. You can guarantee they will own rugby, they have the might. Lots of cash they can liquify as they strip it out. They just want the sport and the subscriber base, and the production capability. The latter the others dont have.

The push will definitely be SVOD. If the Optus deal is based on subscriber numbers they will incentive subscribers to go SVOD. it doesnt matter if that was pitifully snow, as everyone can have the puck now and the app.

There is a share price that makes this a steal. The current shareholders know it wont recover , they have to want out.

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MikeB4

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#2192401 6-Mar-2019 16:23

tdgeek:

I think Matt was suggesting that with extra competition, that Voda could retry this. Sky doesn't hold all the sport anymore, that may continue, so sport was the big issue before, its less so now

The only real change since the Vodafone deals was refused is the entry of Spark (something the obviously had in mind when they companied) into a section of the market. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Google, Apple, MSFT and Stuff were already here.

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#2192412 6-Mar-2019 16:43

tdgeek:

There has been talk of Amazon coming here and sport. Im sure sport is a crown jewell everywhere, people pay anything to watch it.

I am yet to see one credible report that Amazon, Netflix or any other SVoD provider are even considering looking at purchasing Sky TV. Do you have a link to one?

To me, it's not a fit for their current operations, and NZ is such a small market, it would be a rounding error in their annual reports.

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#2192414 6-Mar-2019 16:45

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

I think Matt was suggesting that with extra competition, that Voda could retry this. Sky doesn't hold all the sport anymore, that may continue, so sport was the big issue before, its less so now

The only real change since the Vodafone deals was refused is the entry of Spark (something the obviously had in mind when they companied) into a section of the market. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Google, Apple, MSFT and Stuff were already here.

Yes, and those others aren't relevant. Sport is the crown jewel, not 4000 older movies and so on. Vodafone owning all the sport wasn't acceptable. Spark owning it wouldn't be either. Anyone else is just a Sky name change.

The CEO is overseas looking, reportedly at investors? Why? What to invest in? Nothing as far as trading and innovation is concerned they can manage that so easily. I feel he may want investors to take it over perhaps. I cannot see any other reason to look for cash, they have cash.

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#2192419 6-Mar-2019 16:54

stinger:

tdgeek:

There has been talk of Amazon coming here and sport. Im sure sport is a crown jewell everywhere, people pay anything to watch it.

I am yet to see one credible report that Amazon, Netflix or any other SVoD provider are even considering looking at purchasing Sky TV. Do you have a link to one?

To me, it's not a fit for their current operations, and NZ is such a small market, it would be a rounding error in their annual reports.

Off course not. If all of them were waiting with chequebook in hand it wont be in the news.

Not a fit? So Sky doesn't do Pay TV? It doesn't have 40% market on one country? It doesnt own a great deal of sport? Sport is the moneymaker. Its very much a fit. They all do Pay TV. I dont know what profit Amazon Prime makes, Sky wont be a rounding error for that.

If as you say no one has any interest, and Spark and Voda cannot, then Sky will continue to make profits, decline year on year, and a day will come when they close down. Either way we will all be paying for extra content somewhere. The content that others pickup from Sky wont be given to them they will have to pay for it, and that comes back to us customers as it always will. Even if sport was shared around, same applies. There are no freebies when you have to pay for content, someone has to pay that end customers bill.

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#2192423 6-Mar-2019 16:59

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

I think Matt was suggesting that with extra competition, that Voda could retry this. Sky doesn't hold all the sport anymore, that may continue, so sport was the big issue before, its less so now

The only real change since the Vodafone deals was refused is the entry of Spark (something the obviously had in mind when they companied) into a section of the market. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Google, Apple, MSFT and Stuff were already here.

Yes, and those others aren't relevant. Sport is the crown jewel, not 4000 older movies and so on. Vodafone owning all the sport wasn't acceptable. Spark owning it wouldn't be either. Anyone else is just a Sky name change.

The CEO is overseas looking, reportedly at investors? Why? What to invest in? Nothing as far as trading and innovation is concerned they can manage that so easily. I feel he may want investors to take it over perhaps. I cannot see any other reason to look for cash, they have cash.

Investment is very possible. If they have plans for diversification, expansion and improvements it would involve considerable capital expenditure gaining off shore investment makes sense.

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#2192426 6-Mar-2019 17:02

I feel teh much anticipated Amazon move to NZ was more wishful thinking and any possible move here is dead in the water. The NZ market place would be just a rounding error on the Amazon trading accounts.

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#2192427 6-Mar-2019 17:04

MikeB4:

I feel teh much anticipated Amazon move to NZ was more wishful thinking and any possible move here is dead in the water. The NZ market place would be just a rounding error on the Amazon trading accounts.

Exactly.

tdgeek

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#2192428 6-Mar-2019 17:08

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

I think Matt was suggesting that with extra competition, that Voda could retry this. Sky doesn't hold all the sport anymore, that may continue, so sport was the big issue before, its less so now

The only real change since the Vodafone deals was refused is the entry of Spark (something the obviously had in mind when they companied) into a section of the market. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Google, Apple, MSFT and Stuff were already here.

Yes, and those others aren't relevant. Sport is the crown jewel, not 4000 older movies and so on. Vodafone owning all the sport wasn't acceptable. Spark owning it wouldn't be either. Anyone else is just a Sky name change.

The CEO is overseas looking, reportedly at investors? Why? What to invest in? Nothing as far as trading and innovation is concerned they can manage that so easily. I feel he may want investors to take it over perhaps. I cannot see any other reason to look for cash, they have cash.

Investment is very possible. If they have plans for diversification, expansion and improvements it would involve considerable capital expenditure gaining off shore investment makes sense.

If anything they need to downsize the business. Share buyback. If I had a large area for a large store and sales dropped, permanently, I need to make it a small business not a large one. Less dividends paid which is based on a larger profit making business are not a good idea. It will be a major cashflow issue before long. If Sky added capital to their business how can they possibly support that, the investor will want a dividend and what do they spend this on? They have plenty of cash. All subscribers want is a puck, an app, and a lower price.

Unless they plan to buy an RSP? Then we have the ComCom issue repeated.

If Sky became a $20 for Basics and $30 for Sport, a puck you can buy, here is the app, THEN it could actually take off perhaps. But they need rot remove or reduce anything that is an unnecessary cost, or dividend.

tdgeek

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#2192429 6-Mar-2019 17:10

MikeB4:

I feel teh much anticipated Amazon move to NZ was more wishful thinking and any possible move here is dead in the water. The NZ market place would be just a rounding error on the Amazon trading accounts.

You mean on the Amazon Prime accounts? Not a rounding error there I am sure you will find. Why is Netflix here? Same reasoning applies.

We are talking Amazon Pay TV not Amazon

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#2192430 6-Mar-2019 17:12

Investment in technology is not the same as bricks and mortor. I am sure they will be like any prudent company looking cutting costs. Any investment they would be seeking would not be to maintain the status quo but to gain new technology, new services and new markets.

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#2192432 6-Mar-2019 17:14

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

I feel teh much anticipated Amazon move to NZ was more wishful thinking and any possible move here is dead in the water. The NZ market place would be just a rounding error on the Amazon trading accounts.

You mean on the Amazon Prime accounts? Not a rounding error there I am sure you will find. Why is Netflix here? Same reasoning applies.

We are talking Amazon Pay TV not Amazon

Netflix and Prime are here piggy backing off the Australian market with a virtual pressence that is a huge step away from a physical pressence.

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#2192434 6-Mar-2019 17:17

Sky needs more than $30pm per subscriber to provide Sport. At venue production is hugely expensive.

tdgeek

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#2192435 6-Mar-2019 17:21

MikeB4:

Investment in technology is not the same as bricks and mortor. I am sure they will be like any prudent company looking cutting costs. Any investment they would be seeking would not be to maintain the status quo but to gain new technology, new services and new markets.

I cannot see what new technology they can have they they don't already have ao are already getting. SVOD is SVOD. They just cannot afford to be paying for expenses that they don't need nor more capital.Im sure they are doing what they can for expenses, they need to get rid of the 10 or so L+Bldgs they have and centralise that. I just can't see them affording more capital, and the ongoing costs that go with that, and I cant think of any capex that would be costing multi millions and what technology that would be for. They are not in a piston to increase prices to pay for all this, and still retain the profit they currently have. They need to downsize not upsize

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#2192439 6-Mar-2019 17:24

The production and delivery of 4K content springs to mind.

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