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  #2110025 17-Oct-2018 20:20
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voy1d:

In regards to which timescale? The ASX is the official futures market for the NZEM and the four major gentailers are required to maintain market making positions. If you are just wanting an idea of what prices could be in the next week you can use the WDS on the electricityinfo website.


1-3 months would influence my stay/go decision. Obviously weather limits the predictability massively on that scale but it's always nice to get estimates from the experts

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  #2110039 17-Oct-2018 21:13
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nickb800:
voy1d:

 

In regards to which timescale? The ASX is the official futures market for the NZEM and the four major gentailers are required to maintain market making positions. If you are just wanting an idea of what prices could be in the next week you can use the WDS on the electricityinfo website.

 


1-3 months would influence my stay/go decision. Obviously weather limits the predictability massively on that scale but it's always nice to get estimates from the experts

 

ASX is what you'd want to look at. But from what we know there are the following things to consider;

 

  • Pohukura has a faulty valve which is being remedied and along with a repair to the flexible pipeline under the sea this field is expected to be back online towards late November which will return 40% of New Zealands gas supply
  • Huntly 5 is starting a five week recertification outage shortly and should be back towards the end of November
  • Genesis is burning coal in both the certified Rankine units and this will likely continue until Huntly 5 is returned AND the gas situation is resolved
  • Hydro Lakes are at 75% of average at this point in time
  • Snowmelt and spring inflows are expected in the next few months
  • The El Nino Oscillation index is suggesting an El Nino summer (wet) ahead which could provide boosts to inflows

That is pretty much what is known at the moment. In all honesty, if I was on Flick I'd be getting off the wild ride for the meantime and switching to a fixed price retailer purely not for price but for the certainty of price.


SBQ

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  #2110071 17-Oct-2018 21:55
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voy1d:

 

That is pretty much what is known at the moment. In all honesty, if I was on Flick I'd be getting off the wild ride for the meantime and switching to a fixed price retailer purely not for price but for the certainty of price.

 



That is EXACTLY my whole point. How can any family live under Flick conditions without ANY price certainty? I often wonder all the Flick customers must live a life glued to the Flick App to see every 30 minutes what the price of power is and work cooking meals, doing dishes, etc. around hours when people use the least amount of power. Sorry but I want my meals cooked at a certain time. I also don't want to be raped on a very cold morning where I have to turn on the heat pump and Flixie isn't an attractive price for Christchurch residents.

I got a phone call today from the electrical trade company (arranged by Genesis) to do a meter reconfiguration. I insisted I want my low weekend plan that is 11.55c/kw/hr all Sat and Sun FIXED. This on top of my day & night rate on week days. 


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  #2110121 17-Oct-2018 22:51
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I also checked with Flick whether getting the cheap evening rates back in Wellington was possible at all. (we used to get them until Wellington Electric pulled the plug). Flick confirmed that evening rates are only available to those with an EV to charge overnight (applies to all usage overnight), or only cheaper prices for storage heaters (and cheaper price only for the storage heaters themselves). There is apparently no other way to configure Wellington meters to get overnight cheaper rates any longer... which is a real shame, as before Wellington Electric pulled the plug on this, this was the place I made most of my savings on Flick... by time shifting my usage into the night wherever possible.

 

Looks like I'm shifting to Contact, unless anyone knows of better deal....


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  #2110123 17-Oct-2018 22:58
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SBQ:

 

How can any family live under Flick conditions without ANY price certainty? I often wonder all the Flick customers must live a life glued to the Flick App to see every 30 minutes what the price of power is and work cooking meals, doing dishes, etc. around hours when people use the least amount of power. Sorry but I want my meals cooked at a certain time. I also don't want to be raped on a very cold morning where I have to turn on the heat pump and Flixie isn't an attractive price for Christchurch residents.

 

Your point is overstated just because you can't "live under Flick conditions". But lots of us can.

 

Last time you argued the importance of price certainty I was with Flick in Wellington. We didn't have any problem living with minimal price certainty because the average price was still lower than what we were paying with our previous supplier - this was without us doing anything special apart from sometimes setting the delayed start on our clothes drier so drying was after midnight.

 

SBQ:

 

That chart has the volatility of BitCoin cryptocurrencies!! Just looking at the chart, how do you base a person to work out his day around those price spikes??? It's impossible and part of my argument from before. When the time people NEED to use electricity, they're getting creamed with the price spikes. The times when electricity is cheap.. well they're really not needing much of it. 

 

As I said then:

 

Hammerer:

 

We don't do anything about the spikes. Most days the peak rate only applies for an hour or two and most of the rest of the time we're saving - an average of 20% a week this winter. We only load shift clothes drying with a delay timer so it runs after midnight. We used to do this anyway to reduce our contribution towards peak usage.

 

I thought that I'd be checking prices several times every day. like I also had to do with Powershop to get the best prices. But I barely used the app for three main reasons:

 

  • Peak prices were often overstated. I soon found that peak prices given by the app were not the actual prices I would be billed so using the app was often misleading in terms of the magnitude of the price peak.
  • There was no price forecast. After a week or two using the app I found that the predicted price a few hours out, available through my web browser, was much more useful in terms of us being able to optimise our usage and price.
  • Our demand is often inelastic. In other words, over five months with Flick, we found that we're not very sensitive to wholesale price signals. One reason for this is that we have an invalid at home all day.

So because we are high users we've worked out that our best option is generally to focus on the lowest price per unit. That's why we're now with energyclubnz paying just under 15 cents a unit - to be clear, that is including GST. Their fixed charges are also going to be less than Flicks for most of the year. The only issue I have with using them is that their invoice doesn't show the actual meter reading just the difference between the last reading.


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  #2110125 17-Oct-2018 23:02
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SBQ:

 

voy1d:

 

That is pretty much what is known at the moment. In all honesty, if I was on Flick I'd be getting off the wild ride for the meantime and switching to a fixed price retailer purely not for price but for the certainty of price.

 



That is EXACTLY my whole point. How can any family live under Flick conditions without ANY price certainty? I often wonder all the Flick customers must live a life glued to the Flick App to see every 30 minutes what the price of power is and work cooking meals, doing dishes, etc. around hours when people use the least amount of power. Sorry but I want my meals cooked at a certain time. I also don't want to be raped on a very cold morning where I have to turn on the heat pump and Flixie isn't an attractive price for Christchurch residents.

I got a phone call today from the electrical trade company (arranged by Genesis) to do a meter reconfiguration. I insisted I want my low weekend plan that is 11.55c/kw/hr all Sat and Sun FIXED. This on top of my day & night rate on week days. 

 

I've been on Flick for 4 years now and average around 20.8c/unit (low user, all inclusive). Most of the time it is simply cheaper. It mostly works well for me and I've just been getting on with my life doing things normally.

 

You're actually quite misinformed here. We get it, it doesn't work for you but you don't need to post so negatively over it. I'm yet to find a power provider that'll prove cheaper and have got quotes from many power providers to even compare against FIXIE before making an informed decision. I like Flick, they're doing something different but customers simply don't understand how spot pricing works and the risks associated to it.

 

Flick and other Spot price retailers do make it clear what you're getting into - many people expect this to always be the cheapest, but when I get an alert from Flick I just defer things by a little normally. It doesn't mean I stop cooking or turn off my heat pump or anything. I never go cold, I never go hungry, I just do things normally and even with the Spikes I know I will be still better off than you over a longer period of time. Things like turning on my dryer or dishwasher simply can wait until later.

 

I do know plenty of other people on Flick who have actually saved money. I've heard it doesn't really work in Christchurch, but it works well in many other parts of the country.





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  #2110128 17-Oct-2018 23:13
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Agreed. I've saved about $770 so far with Flick, compared with the great deal I had before (that no-one else could beat at the time). But most of the savings were in the early days when I was getting the cheap overnight pricing... and was time-shifting lots. Since then, the savings have been much much slower to accrue, but also the the high price spike events, have eroded the savings a couple of times. Taking the longer haul view like you, does work, and I can still see it for myself, BUT I think this price is just too good to miss up. Hoping the app and the whole flick market is more mature by the time I return. Out of interest, what Fixie rate did Flick give you? (wondering if ours is the same or not?)

 

Mike


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  #2110133 17-Oct-2018 23:19
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miked:

 

Agreed. I've saved about $770 so far with Flick, compared with the great deal I had before (that no-one else could beat at the time). But most of the savings were in the early days when I was getting the cheap overnight pricing... and was time-shifting lots. Since then, the savings have been much much slower to accrue, but also the the high price spike events, have eroded the savings a couple of times. Taking the longer haul view like you, does work, and I can still see it for myself, BUT I think this price is just too good to miss up. Hoping the app and the whole flick market is more mature by the time I return. Out of interest, what Fixie rate did Flick give you? (wondering if ours is the same or not?)

 

Mike

 

From the email I got:

 

A quick reminder of some details: you’re agreeing to sign up to a 6 month plan that lets you fix your generation price for that period. And, your generation price will be fixed at 7.82 ¢/kWh with a small FIXIE admin fee of 0.15 cents per kWh for the duration of time on FIXIE. As we discussed over the phone the total kWh charges on your account will be 21.213 ¢/kWh. Should you wish to leave before the end of the 6 month period, there is an early exit fee of $10 (excl GST) per month left remaining on the plan.

 

I was actually better off compared to some other power companies. I did compare, and it wasn't worth it. Also I really hate the "Prompt payment discounts". Flick do treat their customers well and the bills are easy to read. I know that maybe I could have gotten potentially a better rate if I shopped around more but changing to this rate just required a simple phonecall lasting a total of 5mins vs changing, getting another query on my credit profile (am about to buy a house so this is actually a consideration I need to make) etc.





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  #2110152 18-Oct-2018 07:04
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Everyone on this thread:

 

This is great! I'm gambling and I'm winning. This is the best ever!

 

(Months pass) I'm gambling and I'm not winning now.  This is suddenly terrible.  What's happening? I can't believe it! Why is this happening to me?

 

Moral of story: If you can't afford to gamble, don't gamble.

 

[Happy Flick customer still, I knew exactly what I was signing up for]


SBQ

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  #2110407 18-Oct-2018 11:52
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Hammerer:

 

Your point is overstated just because you can't "live under Flick conditions". But lots of us can.

 

Last time you argued the importance of price certainty I was with Flick in Wellington. We didn't have any problem living with minimal price certainty because the average price was still lower than what we were paying with our previous supplier - this was without us doing anything special apart from sometimes setting the delayed start on our clothes drier so drying was after midnight.

 

We don't do anything about the spikes. Most days the peak rate only applies for an hour or two and most of the rest of the time we're saving - an average of 20% a week this winter. We only load shift clothes drying with a delay timer so it runs after midnight. We used to do this anyway to reduce our contribution towards peak usage.

 

I thought that I'd be checking prices several times every day. like I also had to do with Powershop to get the best prices. But I barely used the app for three main reasons:

 

  • Peak prices were often overstated. I soon found that peak prices given by the app were not the actual prices I would be billed so using the app was often misleading in terms of the magnitude of the price peak.
  • There was no price forecast. After a week or two using the app I found that the predicted price a few hours out, available through my web browser, was much more useful in terms of us being able to optimise our usage and price.
  • Our demand is often inelastic. In other words, over five months with Flick, we found that we're not very sensitive to wholesale price signals. One reason for this is that we have an invalid at home all day.

So because we are high users we've worked out that our best option is generally to focus on the lowest price per unit. That's why we're now with energyclubnz paying just under 15 cents a unit - to be clear, that is including GST. Their fixed charges are also going to be less than Flicks for most of the year. The only issue I have with using them is that their invoice doesn't show the actual meter reading just the difference between the last reading.

 



I'm stating a fact  that when demand is high - you're going to have to pay more than the other competitors. When the demand is low, then you will save and i'm sure there are many that can work around that kind of use (yes I get it - the single, batchelor etc.) but for the everyday family with children - that's not gonna happen.

When price spikes occur, they occur for a reason and that's at a time when we all need to use power. Getting up early in the morning and the whole country is on high demand. You can't assume that these spikes don't matter because when it subsides, well, everyone has left home (kids at school and parents at work). Again I get it - many can work around the high demand pricing and if 1 user can average out 20c/kwh - more power for them. I haven't come across others Flick customers in Christchurch that have worked out any savings ;  after repeated posts here enquiring. When the Flick alert gets sent, well you're NOT going to wait or adjust your time because the kids need to be at school on time. Not wait a whole 30 minutes later to put the heating on or boil the kettle.

 

If an app can't provide any certainty of pricing, then what point is using the app? People want price certainty with any good consumed, especially an inelastic good, and very few would have the time to work out their TRUE savings. Not the bogus savings emails Flick use to send to me that had no correlation to my previous power company's electricity usage. I always wondered how they worked out my savings?

and here's the deal with Genesis. We have 168 hours in a week. If I can get 98 hours of REASONABLE time off-peak power at 11.55c/kwh then that's not a deal for most users. Off peak in Christchurch is after 9PM to 7AM M-F and 9PM Friday all through the weekend until 7AM Monday. Yes the day rate may be higher but when I was with Flick, their off peak price was no where near this 11.55c rate.



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  #2110413 18-Oct-2018 12:00
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@SBQ You're just going around in circles and this isn't a debate thread (especially since you're literally not listening to anyone else) so I advise you to stop now. Move on.





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  #2110416 18-Oct-2018 12:06
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muppet:

 

Everyone on this thread:

 

This is great! I'm gambling and I'm winning. This is the best ever!

 

(Months pass) I'm gambling and I'm not winning now.  This is suddenly terrible.  What's happening? I can't believe it! Why is this happening to me?

 

Moral of story: If you can't afford to gamble, don't gamble.

 

[Happy Flick customer still, I knew exactly what I was signing up for]

 

 

 

 

Ha! Certainly true for some gamblers (especially if you read Flick's Facebook posts). I think most here are pretty clued in though...

 

 

 

In my case, it is more that I am reassessing because a potentially better deal came up. I'm happy with the gamble I already had... but only a fool doesn't keep an eye on the changing risk and return on his gambles... otherwise he is potentially on the road to a losing streak!


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  #2110420 18-Oct-2018 12:10
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miked:

 

Ha! Certainly true for some gamblers (especially if you read Flick's Facebook posts). I think most here are pretty clued in though...

 

In my case, it is more that I am reassessing because a potentially better deal came up. I'm happy with the gamble I already had... but only a fool doesn't keep an eye on the changing risk and return on his gambles... otherwise he is potentially on the road to a losing streak!

 

 

I fully agree.  But once you've lost money, you've lost the money.  There's zero point to be gained moaning about it.

 

Fully agree with changing your strategy so you don't keep losing. 


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  #2110423 18-Oct-2018 12:16
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SBQ:

 

If an app can't provide any certainty of pricing, then what point is using the app?

 

 

Why do people put the price of items on items?  Oh, that's right! So people know how much they cost!

 

SBQ:

 

People want price certainty with any good consumed, especially an inelastic good, and very few would have the time to work out their TRUE savings.

 

 

The fact so many people signed up to Flick would suggest this is an incorrect statement.  Furthermore, Flick tells you your savings (or as is the case for me, my losses)

 

 

 

You post seems to boil down to the fact you gambled and lost and you're crabby about that.  It happens. That's why it's called gambling. (I am currently gambling and I'm losing).  I trust you're equally as angry at Lotto for advertising that you "could" win $4M? [Yea yea you don't buy lotto tickets I'm sure]


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  #2110424 18-Oct-2018 12:17
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michaelmurfy:

 

Also I really hate the "Prompt payment discounts". Flick do treat their customers well and the bills are easy to read. I know that maybe I could have gotten potentially a better rate if I shopped around more ...

 

 

Like you, I agree - Flick is slick. They had the smoothest administration we've used, the website was very useful - more useful than the app, the weekly news email is more interesting, and leaving them was timely and problem-free.

 

Unlike you, we left because we solely want the lowest price we can get.

 

 


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