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180 posts

Master Geek

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  #2110488 18-Oct-2018 13:44
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I suspect that recently I'll have paid about $50 more than a standard provider in total (spread over last bill and the next bill), but that will just reduce my total savings since being on Flick from $770 to $720. I'm not at all unhappy about that. I've no doubt that if I stayed with Flick and carried on playing the long game, then that saving would easily climb back up and exceed $770 and beyond as a total saving in the future.

 

The fact that I have a "dead cert" risk-free offer on the table that beats those riskier potential savings from Flick means I might jump this time... but I've no doubt I'll be back in the future if Flick are still around in 2 years.

 

Mike


4756 posts

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  #2110511 18-Oct-2018 14:31
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miked:

 

but I've no doubt I'll be back in the future if Flick are still around in 2 years.

 

 

That's the kicker, when the chips are down those without access to their own generation and at the whim of the spot market go bust,

 

After the deregulation on the late 1990s generators offered the newly created lines companies silly money to become the supplier of choice for their customers , Canadian company Transalta was buying up customers left right and centre, and eventually sold the business on to Australia AGL for nearly $1 billion, and by 2001 the now named "On Energy" had 450,000 customers

 

But in the 2001 power crisis they got crippled having to "buy short and sell long", and went bust with debts of $100s million... and the existing "gentailers" scooped up all customers for a song.....

 

The new breed have at least learnt that they have to sell short as well, but they still suffer if spot stays above the long term prices others are offering...... 

 

   


180 posts

Master Geek

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  #2111254 20-Oct-2018 00:05
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So I've just made the change to Contact. The maths says it should save me money most weeks compared to being with Flick... and will save me lots when the prices are high like now. Only because this Contact deal is so good, not because Flick was bad (this is just exceptional deal).

 

I checked with the Sales guy if he could do a deal for a mate in Karori who I know if looking to switch too, and he said he could, so he's left me his mobile number. I won't spam the forum with it, but if anyone else is looking for a switch, and wants a quote from this Contact Sales guy, flick me a PM, and I'll pass his details on. Nothing in it for me, (other than having found what I think is an awesome deal it makes sense to share it.). In fairness, I don't know if he can only do a deal for Wellington, or nationwide.

 

Thanks for this thread, and the Flick ride. I'll likely still read occasionally what's going on over here, as it fascinates me... but unlikely to post again in the thread for a long while. 


222 posts

Master Geek


  #2112051 21-Oct-2018 20:41
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Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  


718 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2112053 21-Oct-2018 20:59
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Bobdn:

Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  



I’m toughing it out!

145 posts

Master Geek


  #2112060 21-Oct-2018 21:32
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Bobdn:

 

Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  

 

Staying with it here, although a custom setup with battery's, grid tied inverter, solar and LPG generator - so in a way loving the high spot prices - it does stuff up my system as its designed for charging the batterys at night at the low rates which are rarely happening recently.

 

I'm estimating it costs around $0.20 per kWh to generate using LPG, but then I don't have a direct grid tied generator and need to charge battery and invert so its quite inefficient, but when the prices are up above $.40 it works quite well. Lucky we have had a lot of sun in the past week or so so the solar is really paying itself off - I find myself scrambling to turn off stuff around the house when the export price is high more for the reason to allow more of my inverted electricity to be exported, especially when it gets close to $1! 

 

I know of others, some with solar as large as 20kW who are loving the high spot prices. 

 

I'd still rather have low off peak prices which have become slightly better in the past few days, but will hopefully return in the next few weeks/months. 


222 posts

Master Geek


  #2112061 21-Oct-2018 21:57
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Interesting, thanks for the response both.  I was just fooling around with the EMI stats.  This really does look like a one in 10 year event (but of course that's not to say it can't happen more often).  

 

2008 saw the last sustained high prices which is a period not covered by these stats.  

 

https://www.emi.ea.govt.nz/Wholesale/Reports/W_P_C?DateFrom=20090721&DateTo=20181020&RegionType=NZ&TimeScale=WEEK&_si=v|3


16181 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2112072 22-Oct-2018 07:01
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I thought last year was the once in five year high prices? What's next year, once in 20 years?


2270 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2112634 23-Oct-2018 11:10
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Bobdn:

 

Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  

 

 

"toughing" it out.  It doesn't seem that much worse than usual TBH.


108 posts

Master Geek

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  #2112642 23-Oct-2018 11:26
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muppet:

 

Bobdn:

 

Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  

 

 

"toughing" it out.  It doesn't seem that much worse than usual TBH.

 

 

Also toughing it out, but not keen on the prospects over the next month or so.

 

Roughly speaking, we're consuming less than than half of what we did in the middle of winter, but the spot prices are more than twice the worst of that period - the sum result being our bills are currently much the same as peak winter.


2270 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2112646 23-Oct-2018 11:31
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robertsona:

 

Also toughing it out, but not keen on the prospects over the next month or so.

 

Roughly speaking, we're consuming less than than half of what we did in the middle of winter, but the spot prices are more than twice the worst of that period - the sum result being our bills are currently much the same as peak winter.

 

 

Oh yea I've just had a look at my latest bill and you're right, it's going to be ~90+ this week, so you're right, it's up to Winter prices.

 

Bugger!!


21126 posts

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  #2112647 23-Oct-2018 11:37
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Bobdn:

 

Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  

 

 

Genesis, Meridian, and almost all of the others are toughing it out...


3885 posts

Uber Geek


  #2112658 23-Oct-2018 12:14
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tdgeek:

Bobdn:


Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  



Genesis, Meridian, and almost all of the others are toughing it out...



This.

Although depending on how you look at things. They might still be making a big profit if they are selling more power into the wholesale market than what they are buying in that market.

But they would still be making a "paper" loss. Due to having to sell power to customers on fixed price plans, and honouring hedge contracts. When they could have gotten more money by selling it into the wholesale market.

Either way, it is not sustainable in the long run. Eventually fixed price retail power plans will increase in cost. And maybe then, the government will do something about the silly low user regulations. Especially as steep increases in the cost of electricity would put the government under a lot of pressure.





155 posts

Master Geek


  #2112669 23-Oct-2018 12:52
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Aredwood:
tdgeek:

Bobdn:


Is anybody here still toughing out the spot prices or has everyone moved to Fixie or another supplier?  



Genesis, Meridian, and almost all of the others are toughing it out...



This.

Although depending on how you look at things. They might still be making a big profit if they are selling more power into the wholesale market than what they are buying in that market.

But they would still be making a "paper" loss. Due to having to sell power to customers on fixed price plans, and honouring hedge contracts. When they could have gotten more money by selling it into the wholesale market.

Either way, it is not sustainable in the long run. Eventually fixed price retail power plans will increase in cost. And maybe then, the government will do something about the silly low user regulations. Especially as steep increases in the cost of electricity would put the government under a lot of pressure.


Just curious, why don't you like the low user regulations?

3885 posts

Uber Geek


  #2112829 23-Oct-2018 17:25
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The low user regulations have lots of side effects. Biggest one being how they force power companies to charge artificially high unit rates, and artificially low fixed daily fees.

Rich people avoid the higher unit rates by over investing into energy efficiency measures. switching to other energy sources, and it is also an indirect subsidy for solar. But poor people in rental properties can't do much of the above. The low user plans have to also be the cheapest plans. So if you have high power usage due to too many people in your house, you are subsidizing households with fewer people. And poorer households tend to have more people than rich households. So poor people are getting punished twice.

The higher per unit costs mean that you can save money by converting your hot water to Gas. This causes far more carbon emissions than electric hot water, especially night rate hot water. So we are doing the equivalent of paying people to emit carbon dioxide.

They force power companies to offer fixed rate plans to low users. And the power companies are not allowed to offer any other plans that could result in cheaper overall costs than the low user plans. So plans such as a high peak charge combined with a very low off peak charge. Or a plan with a strict low limit on the amount of capacity a customer can use, but combined with a very low per unit charge. Such plans are illegal. As it would be possible for a customer to structure their usage so it would be cheaper than the low user plans.

Because the low user plans are the cheapest plans. There is an incentive to reduce your power usage to qualify for those plans. Yet because they have a max 33c daily charge, of which only 15c per day has to cover lines and transmission charges. 15c per day is nowhere near enough to cover those costs. So high per unit surcharges have to be added. Everyone responds by reducing their power usage. But overall power usage has very little relationship to fixed costs and capacity costs. So a reduction in income without a matching reduction in costs, means that prices have to increase. So everyone complains that power keeps on going up in price.





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