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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1310359 23-May-2015 11:36
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Pretty much, I'd expect prices to track downwards after the morning peak, but they'll likely remain elevated (at least compared with SI prices). Looking at the CANs is a good way of keeping up to date with any planned grid constraints (It was almost a full time job when they were getting Pole 3 Project tested).

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  Reply # 1310366 23-May-2015 11:55
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Where can you find a list of notifications?




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1310369 23-May-2015 12:00
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You can get them (and apparently register for updates) here:

http://www.systemoperator.co.nz/system-operations/notices/customer-advice-notices-cans

On the left menu you'll see they also have Formal Notices. I may be corrected, but they tend to be more immediate than the CANs- i.e. due to unplanned outages.

ADD: It might be worthwhile to split the thread for a topic about spot prices?

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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 1314142 29-May-2015 14:18
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So how are the savings tracking for those who switched to Flick early?

I am keen to see widespread use of peak power prices to reduce peak usage so I'm keen for Flick to be successful. On the other hand, the spot prices that are used will also expose me to risks that have little to do with the actual cost of generation and distribution, e.g. predatory behaviour, panic.

For me the problem with switching to Flick is that:

 

  • It is very hard to independently estimate how much would be saved by moving to Flick. So much depends upon my power profile during the day which requires a lot of detail to estimate the savings accurately. When I switched to Powershop in 2009 the pricing still related to my power profile during the monthly billing period so the impact was much less risky to estimate. Powershop also later gave me the opportunity to make the most of short term deals and lock in prices a year in advance. Powershop insulated me from the spot prices through providing access to prices that related to their forward contracts. I used those options and my "bets" generally fell on the positive side for me.
  • In a risky scenario with Flick the method to lock in a fixed price in the future is to switch to another retailer. That could take a month to complete thereby exposing me to financial risk and significant inconvenience if I have to switch off during peak price periods.
So what saving do I think I could get. Last month I downloaded spot price data for the past year and used that to calculate I could save about 25% at most ($1,000 on a $4,000 a year spend). But that best case was if I could time-shift all my usage to the night spot price. If all my usage was during the day spot price then it could cost me about 20% ($850) more. Assuming my power usage is spread evenly over the 24-hours it could save me 15% ($600). In practice, we have more usage during the day and early evening so the saving is as likely half that at about 7% ($280) unless I can time-shift more usage to the night rate. At the moment my supplier offers about half that saving if I stay with them.

The biggest reason for me to stay where I am is that I consider that $300 to $600 could easily be the equivalent of the difference due to high spot prices in one bad month during winter. The additional cost depends most upon how long it will take to switch to other retailer when I realise that spot prices will stay too high. That changeover could easily take a month so I consider that risk of that happening is too high for me. We have an invalid home during the day so we couldn't easily just switch the power off.

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  Reply # 1314149 29-May-2015 14:34
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Can't answer that, haven't been using them long enough. Haven't even gotten a bill yet.

If you can time shift most of your hot water (this feature coming soon), dish washer, and clothes drier to off peak that can be a significant saving in itself, those processes all heat water, which is expensive. Add in heating the house before you get up in the morning, weekend heating in winter, two more wins. Right now we're not paying near the mainstream power company prices except during a couple of hours peak in the evenings, usually not even then. Hot water usage is higher when it's cold, plus the water temp is colder so you have to heat water more, and even brushing your teeth you need to mix in some warm water.

Summer will be when things can be more expensive. You use less power but prices are higher due to lower lake storage levels. I don't think winter pricing will be an issue.

Right now I'm paying $0.03 per kwh, plus the 6.5c line charge, which is < 10c/kwh. That will go to to maybe 20c/kwh this evening. Most of the weekend I expect it to sit around 12c/kwh.




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  Reply # 1316043 2-Jun-2015 11:32
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My connection was switched to Flick on Friday from Genesis. Took 2 business days which is good. Waiting for my login information to be emailed now for the online portal.




Do whatever you want to do man.

  

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  Reply # 1316070 2-Jun-2015 11:43
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It can take two weeks (maybe more) to get the login. The installer has to give information to flick before they can get the usage information. I'm at two weeks since install date today, Flick tell me they're trying to get the information from the meter installer but they're having trouble getting it. If you already had a smart meter maybe it'd be easier.




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  Reply # 1316250 2-Jun-2015 14:41
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I already had a smart meter installed so I hope to get the login information this week sometime.




Do whatever you want to do man.

  



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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1316355 2-Jun-2015 17:26
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I moved house so signed up to flick 10 days ago when they had the $75 rebate.
Took them 8 days to transfer from old supplier to them, and 2 more days to get access to dashboard.


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  Reply # 1328766 21-Jun-2015 18:52
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Just moving into a new flat next week and it's time to choose providers (central auckland)

Flick looks interesting but is it going to be worth the mental hassle to save power with these guys?  Seems like a lot of it will be just not using power until late at night, so no TV or gaming until late to save a few $$$

We're not going to be running heating but our hot water cylinder is very old and unwrapped and I'm sure the place isn't insulated.  (70s built by the looks of things)

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  Reply # 1328782 21-Jun-2015 19:22
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macuser: Just moving into a new flat next week and it's time to choose providers (central auckland)

Flick looks interesting but is it going to be worth the mental hassle to save power with these guys?  Seems like a lot of it will be just not using power until late at night, so no TV or gaming until late to save a few $$$

We're not going to be running heating but our hot water cylinder is very old and unwrapped and I'm sure the place isn't insulated.  (70s built by the looks of things)


I've done very little to move my power usage (given we have gas hot water), other than done the occasional delayed load of washing and even more occasional load of dishes, and we've apparently 'saved' 18-25 percent compared to our previous provider. Of course, you'll be more subject to the vagaries of the market with an electric water cylinder...

But given the lack of contract, what do you have to lose from giving them a go? Going by what's been reported here, savings are likely to be greater over winter (due to high rainfall) so you could always shift if/when prices may start going up in summer. 

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  Reply # 1328797 21-Jun-2015 19:47
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macuser: Just moving into a new flat next week and it's time to choose providers (central auckland)

Flick looks interesting but is it going to be worth the mental hassle to save power with these guys?  Seems like a lot of it will be just not using power until late at night, so no TV or gaming until late to save a few $$$

We're not going to be running heating but our hot water cylinder is very old and unwrapped and I'm sure the place isn't insulated.  (70s built by the looks of things)


I don't think it is worth it IMO for the certainty. Although Consumer NZ compared it to being on a floating interest rates on home loans, compared to being on a fixed interest rate, I don't think this is a fair comparison. From what I have seen the variation swings in wholesale electricity pricing can be quite big and without warning,. Whereas with house loans, the variances seem to be quite slow and small.

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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1329863 23-Jun-2015 13:11
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Yeah I realised that and then deleted the post so I could re-do it (but too late!).

k14

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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1334002 30-Jun-2015 11:12
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mattwnz: I don't think it is worth it IMO for the certainty. Although Consumer NZ compared it to being on a floating interest rates on home loans, compared to being on a fixed interest rate, I don't think this is a fair comparison. From what I have seen the variation swings in wholesale electricity pricing can be quite big and without warning,. Whereas with house loans, the variances seem to be quite slow and small.

I agree, not to mention the fact that it could often be the case that you find out the price spiked after you have used the power (difference between 5 min and final prices) and if your floating rate increases you get prior warning and can choose to fix before the floating rate actually increases.

The better analogy (although there are none that are perfect) is comparing it to house insurance. Being with a normal power company is like taking out insurance on your house. You pay the insurance company a set rate and they take the risk of anything bad happening to your house. If you decide to not go for insurance then you had better be very vigilant that nothing happens to your house or you will be in the crap. Much the same as checking the power price every time you want to do a load of washing or have a shower. Not worth the time/worry for the small savings in the big scheme of things imo.

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  Reply # 1334014 30-Jun-2015 11:20
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I've been on Flick for a couple months now. There's been one very cold evening where power prices hit 40c/kwh for an hour 5:30 - 6:30, generally 5 - 9pm we pay less than the standard 19c/kwh, and off peak we pay significantly less. For example running the dishwasher and clothes drier at 3am on timer we typically pay 7c/kwh or so, 1/3 the regular cost. I'm going to time shift some of our hot water heating to then as well, which should further reduce the bill.

Right now I'm sitting at 30% saving over Mercury Energy. Summer could be interesting though, prices go up when hydro lakes go down. I mean to do an analysis of the last few years before we hit summer, if the prices look to be higher than I want to pay I'll just switch - maybe even just for summer, if that's an option.




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