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  Reply # 1801476 15-Jun-2017 12:20
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wow, 20cents and more spot prices http://www.em6live.co.nz/PlanningRegion.aspx?planningregion=uni


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  Reply # 1801481 15-Jun-2017 12:38
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linw:

 

Faffing over spot prices, installing timers etc etc would do my head in. Not doing this is surely worth something? It is to me, anyway.

 

Am thinking of switching from Mercury to Electric Kiwi but don't anticipate a great saving, except for the guarantee for the first year!

 

 

Most of the year Flick is 25 - 30% cheaper than standard power companies for me, with few to no downsides. With the low rain / storage lake levels and cold weather prices are higher and spiking more often.

 

The long range weather forecast gives some hope that normal winter rain levels should restore in the next week or two.

 

If we don't see some kind of change in the next week I'm pretty sure I'll be changing. I may get sick of watching power prices before then and change anyway.





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  Reply # 1801517 15-Jun-2017 13:19
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Aredwood:

 

Well that rain certainly made a difference. South island inflows are now above average for this time of year. Currently between 50 - 75th Percentile.

 

I guess you are looking at the inflow chart on the daily security of supply updates. These are only daily inflows (3 day rolling moving average), so not that relevant in terms of setting price, unless they are off the chart high. They'll be back down to zero again by monday given the forecast. You might find storage the more relevant thing to look at. 

 

https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/security-supply/hydro-risk-curves

 

When storage hits the red line there will be a public conservation campaign, and retailers will have to start paying customers a compensation fee each week (not those retailers with spot tariffs though -- I'm not sure why). Meridian, who control the south island lakes have requested that Transpower move the line down because they don't think it would be a good look for the industry to have a conservation campaign in an election year. If they are successful prices might not go too high, but if not they'll want to raise spot prices to try and avoid that outcome. In which case 20c might seem pretty cheap.


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  Reply # 1801764 15-Jun-2017 21:15
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Wow, for the first time since 6am the price of power fell below 20c/kwh + GST. This is the worst day so far. I know we look at big picture, but changing power companies is easy. I'll probably still give it a week or two, but I'm getting really sick of constant notifications from the Flick app, and having to keep an eye on the power price. 

 

Do other suppliers pay less than the market rate for their power, through say bulk deals? Or do they all pay the floating rate all the time?





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  Reply # 1801792 15-Jun-2017 22:34
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The big gentailers can supply their customers off their own generation ( if they have enough) rather than having to buy off the spot,
Although I noticed that meridian have activated cover under a swap agreement with genesis to cover their low flows....

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  Reply # 1801824 16-Jun-2017 07:40
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46.6c as at 0730 this morning. Looks like we'll be switching to EK this evening when I get home. Wednesday's price graph give's a good indication of just how high the numbers are at the moment (considering they often don't fit on the graph):

 


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  Reply # 1801825 16-Jun-2017 07:45
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I emailed Flick this morning asking for their take on high prices, and any forecast they can make on when they might go down. I pointed out that many of their customers are probably considering leaving and that it should be a blog post - a much more useful blog post than the ones they've been making lately.

 

Wellington's 26c + GST, I'll see how the weekend goes, if there's nothing from Flick and no change I might change on the weekend.





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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1801832 16-Jun-2017 08:10
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timmmay:

 

I emailed Flick this morning asking for their take on high prices, and any forecast they can make on when they might go down.

 

 

 

 

Yep, I recently went to their twitter to check whether they have any official publications on that. Found nothing though.

 

 

 

Not even forecasts, but at least a thorough explanation on why that happened would be helpful.


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  Reply # 1801833 16-Jun-2017 08:16
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Just applied for Electric Kiwi. Currently 46.9c as at 0815. Not worth it.


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  Reply # 1801839 16-Jun-2017 08:40
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Yeah I ended up changing to Electric Kiwi too. It is getting too annoying...




Michael Murphy | https://murfy.nz
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  Reply # 1801840 16-Jun-2017 08:45
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Just applied to Electric Kiwi as well. Apparently they'll get back to me within two days. I expect they're probably a little busy right now.





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  Reply # 1801845 16-Jun-2017 08:50
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timmmay:

Just applied to Electric Kiwi as well. Apparently they'll get back to me within two days. I expect they're probably a little busy right now.



Just had a chat to them - may take up-to 10 days to complete the switch. The losing power company had up-to 10 days to comply. I would think Flick should be pretty quick though.




Michael Murphy | https://murfy.nz
Want to be with an epic ISP? Want $20 to join them too? Well, use this link to sign up to BigPipe!
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  Reply # 1801846 16-Jun-2017 08:52
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Yeah be interesting to see how keen they are to take on customers at a time they are making heavy losses on them, when a significant number will leave as soon as the spot price drops. I guess if they have expected this will be when they can pickup customers and have thus bought extra hedging in anticipation.

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  Reply # 1801848 16-Jun-2017 08:59
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The impression I got was it might take a couple of days to do things like a credit check before the switch process started. I also assume Flick would reply reasonably quickly, but if they're getting a lot of people switching there could be delays there.

 

I guess EK will make more or less profit according to power prices and time of year. I'm pretty sick of watching power prices, so I would expect I'd stay with them for a while. Losing the off peak line charges of Flick was a real kicker to savings. EK probably isn't that much more expensive than Flick even when prices are low over summer and late winter when the lakes are full.





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Master Geek
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  Reply # 1801855 16-Jun-2017 09:07
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I moved out of my house on Tuesday with my account being closed then. Now living with the in-laws and not on Flick here.

 

A few things to note, TCC (Contact's CCGT) has tripped a few times over the last few days, taking almost 350 MW out of the NI generation. Secondly Mercury's Nga Awa Purua tripped as well, shedding 100 MW of geothermal generation.

 

That and the cold weather plus light wind is driving these higher prices that you are seeing. And this is the risk that occurs in a dry year in NZ, when the Hydro generators are being forced to conserve the fuel they do have. This will eventually end when the rain is enough to fill the southern hydro lakes - but until then it's going to be expensive for anyone on spot.

 

How long this will last is anyones guess, whilst the long range forecasts are promising - they have been for the last month showing events in the 10 day forecast and these have been evaporating as we get closer to the time so I wouldn't get my hopes up until it actually rains.

 

 

 

With regards to switching, a switch must be completed within 10 business days of the initial request so anytime in the next 10 days is when you could be switched.


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