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152 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 1828399 24-Jul-2017 13:57
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timmmay:

 

I wonder if all the rain down south will help power prices, and if so how quickly.

 

 

No, very little was in the catchments for the lakes and the amount that fell only had a very miniscule effect on the levels.


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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 1828418 24-Jul-2017 14:06
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gchiu:

 

I haven't seen any pricing above 32c per unit since 14th July.

 

 

 

 

What is the normal pricing, aside from recent events. During a typical day, on peak and off


66 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 1828421 24-Jul-2017 14:09
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tdgeek:

 

gchiu:

 

I haven't seen any pricing above 32c per unit since 14th July.

 

 

 

 

What is the normal pricing, aside from recent events. During a typical day, on peak and off

 

 

 

 

Big inflows to NI lakes, i.e. Taupo.

 

See the inflows and the ramping down of thermal generation at https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/security-supply/daily-security-supply-updates.

 

Still in the grand scheme of things one large inflow is not going to change the market dynamics, but it certainly keeps the prospect of an emergency situation at bay.


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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 1828784 25-Jul-2017 07:53
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Electricity Authority retail connection data is out for June - very interesting to see that Flick has barely lost customers, just levelled off it's strong growth trend. EK has grown by a similar amount to Flick's loss, but again nothing spectacular. Just a few geeks switching, I guess!

 

Click to see full size


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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 1828800 25-Jul-2017 08:55
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nickb800:

 

Electricity Authority retail connection data is out for June - very interesting to see that Flick has barely lost customers, just levelled off it's strong growth trend. EK has grown by a similar amount to Flick's loss, but again nothing spectacular. Just a few geeks switching, I guess!

 

Click to see full size

 

 

I'm in the blue line, If Genesis was there, I'd be on that one too, the dip!




706 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1828977 25-Jul-2017 11:19
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tdgeek:

 

 

 

What is the normal pricing, aside from recent events. During a typical day, on peak and off

 

 

Well at present prices for flick seem to be largely running at twice what they were this time last year for offpeak.  It seems to be averaging around the 20c mark, but last year from midnight to 4:30 price would drop to 7c per unit.  Now, there's no diurnal variation so you might as well run appliances anytime of the day :(


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Uber Geek
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  Reply # 1830426 26-Jul-2017 04:01
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The recent rain has helped alot - but not completely. NZ overall supply risk is now Normal, SI is still on Watch.

 

 

The rains caused all of the bars above the 0 line. Also not shown will be increased output from mostly North Island run of river hydro generators. This was why during and after the rain, there were some very low price dips in NI power. As they can't store their water, they will just sell whatever they can generate onto the wholesale market. Still a very useful increase in storage. And there has been a big reduction in diesel and coal generation.

 

HVDC transfer (click on the weekly tab)

 

As you can see - virtually no north transfer. (North is the normal transfer mode). So there is still a SI shortage. And due to limits on south transfer, Which mean that prices for power sent south start getting expensive for more than 500MW approx south transfer. This means there is still pain for those on Flick in the SI. As even if prices get really cheap in the north, they can't fully flow through to the south.

 

And my most recent Flick bill - I lost $9.26,my average raw wholesale price was 16.5c/unit, total units used was just 107.5 for the week. Bill was $40.85 all up. Not bad as it covered by far the worst week. Flick even said with their info sent with this bill that it was their worst week.

 

When the HVDC transfer goes back to mostly North transfer - That is when the shortage will be over. Ignore any very late night south transfer, as geothermal and run of river hydro operates 24/7. Also there is now over 1000MW of installed geothermal capacity, 25MW of which only came online approx 1 month ago. It was scheduled to come online end of October, but they managed to bring it forward. Which would have earned big profits for the generator owner as well as helping out the shortage.

 

Also looking at the peak load hedge prices for next winter. NI is already on 10.7c per unit. Add lines fees and GST, and current fixed electricity prices are not sustainable at that level. As you still have to allow for profit margin and other operating expenses. Looks like there will be a round of large price rises in April next year. From the fixed price companies.

 

It seems like Pulse Energy is still offering their fixed prices without a contract, But I haven't been able to find out exactly what prices they are offering. I typed my details into their signup form, then abandoned the process. So they will call me soon, and I can check their prices and see if they have increased them. They think that Im currently on a commercial power plan, so had to enter a neighbours address.

 

[edited to add]

 

For the record, Im still going to stay with Flick long term.






84 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 1830588 26-Jul-2017 11:59
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Also looking at the peak load hedge prices for next winter. NI is already on 10.7c per unit. Add lines fees and GST, and current fixed electricity prices are not sustainable at that level. As you still have to allow for profit margin and other operating expenses. Looks like there will be a round of large price rises in April next year. From the fixed price companies.


Thanks for this analysis. Can you explain a bit more about the peak load hedge prices and what they mean?

573 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 8


  Reply # 1831856 26-Jul-2017 21:19
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gchiu:

 

I've created a new script for those who know their supply_node details to dump the current and 30 minute predicted price.  It now sleeps until the next price change over but you can change it to whatever you like.  

 

rebol-api-script

 

 

After almost 2 hours cracking my head at it, I've finally got a ren-c r3 binary that actually functions on the raspberry pi. :)

 

Looking forward to the next step of trying to integrate the output into openhab, followed by building an rflink module to turn on/off 433mhz plugs dependent on what the spot prices are doing.





Working for Service Plus - www.serviceplus.co.nz

Authorised Service Agent for Apple, BenQ, Navman, Sony, and Toshiba - warranty & non-warranty repairs.



706 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1832135 27-Jul-2017 11:56
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jpwise:

 

 

 

After almost 2 hours cracking my head at it, I've finally got a ren-c r3 binary that actually functions on the raspberry pi. :)

 

 

Sorry to hear this.  Did you try to build from source?  Or was there an issue with the binaries we provide?  And if so, what?

 

I don't have a RasPi in a state I can test on just right now.


573 posts

Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1832141 27-Jul-2017 12:14
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gchiu:

 

Sorry to hear this.  Did you try to build from source?  Or was there an issue with the binaries we provide?  And if so, what?

 

I don't have a RasPi in a state I can test on just right now.

 

 

 

 

Couldn't find a pre-built armhf ren-c r3 binary, so had to compile from source. Issues were mostly with the current r3-alpha's not processing the makefile scripting.  Bundled x64 r3 binary worked under x64, so worked towards cross compiling from linux x64 but it still outputted a x64 binary (no idea why).

 

Ended up taking the generated makefile with the target OS=0.4.20, then copying the makefile over to the pi. After that re-ran the make and quit out of the r3-alpha after it error'd, but the build still proceeded with the copied makefile OK. 

 

Either way - finally got an armhf (/pi) binary and it works, so I'm happy. When I get time to work on it again I'll see if I can take the flick spot output into an openhab exec binding.





Working for Service Plus - www.serviceplus.co.nz

Authorised Service Agent for Apple, BenQ, Navman, Sony, and Toshiba - warranty & non-warranty repairs.



706 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 10


  Reply # 1832260 27-Jul-2017 13:58
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Oh, there were armhf builds a few years ago and they appear to have dropped off the map.  So, we'll add those back into our travis script again.


84 posts

Master Geek
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  Reply # 1832264 27-Jul-2017 14:02
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Just a warning that the price is forecast to spike to about $1.20 after 5:30pm today.



706 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 10


  Reply # 1832379 27-Jul-2017 16:39
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I see on my dashboard ...

 

Hmmmm... Something is unplugged somewhere

 

 


84 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 9


  Reply # 1832385 27-Jul-2017 16:47
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gchiu:

I see on my dashboard ...


Hmmmm... Something is unplugged somewhere

 



That can happen to me for a few days sometimes.

This is what I see now:


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