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k14

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  Reply # 1914261 7-Dec-2017 07:41
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ashtonaut: Prices still pretty high here in Christchurch. Is the primary driver for this low rainfall and lake levels, or are there transient maintenance or downtime events that are still affecting the spot price? I know there was some planned maintenance mentioned a few posts up but I think this has now passed.

 

All of the above, plus some unplanned plant outages. TCC (Contact gas powerstation in Taranaki) is still on maintenance till the 15th and then there were some issues with the Geothermal stations Contact runs around Taupo in the last few days. This along with the extreme dry conditions in the SI means high prices. This week both of the Huntly Rankine units have been running plus the other gas turbine they have there. Pretty extraordinary for this time of year. There will be the typical lull in prices over christmas (although this year I could see steady $50-60 prices) and then it will be back to over $100 in January unless there is some decent rain, which at this stage is looking very unlikely.


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  Reply # 1914264 7-Dec-2017 07:54
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Flicks idea is a good one, but many can't be bothered with micro managing usage on a continual basis. We had a winter spike period, now a summer spike period. I will stay on EK.


 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1914266 7-Dec-2017 07:56
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Interesting insights, thanks a lot.

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  Reply # 1914270 7-Dec-2017 07:59
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tdgeek:

Flicks idea is a good one, but many can't be bothered with micro managing usage on a continual basis. We had a winter spike period, now a summer spike period. I will stay on EK.



I don’t bother with micro managing usage, but the large variability in prices (and bills) is a bit of a pain. I realise it’s what you sign up for though. At least I’m able to go to EK if I want now (during the winter spike my property was blocked on the EK website as I was a Flick customer).

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  Reply # 1914279 7-Dec-2017 08:21
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ashtonaut:
tdgeek:

 

Flicks idea is a good one, but many can't be bothered with micro managing usage on a continual basis. We had a winter spike period, now a summer spike period. I will stay on EK.

 



I don’t bother with micro managing usage, but the large variability in prices (and bills) is a bit of a pain. I realise it’s what you sign up for though. At least I’m able to go to EK if I want now (during the winter spike my property was blocked on the EK website as I was a Flick customer).

 

My issue is, when there is a spike, do you avoid or reduce usage? I don't. The buffer that I have is built into EK pricing, I pay a bit more, they use that to buffer their spike buy prices. Flick users need to not worry about higher spike prices, just use power as they normally do, and provide the own buffer, or just accept the higher bill, knowing many others will be lower. But the reality is it becomes "oh no, turn everything off". Once you get lower prices, then lose an amount of that with high prices, or foregoing warmth or cooling to save money, is it really that worth it?

 

Im in ChCh there has been no rain (a very small and short amount right now) it will be 33 Saturday, 31 Sunday, 28 Monday. The dry spell may be the story of the summer this year, so the spikes may be ongoing or on and off all summer, possibly.


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  Reply # 1914369 7-Dec-2017 09:14
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tdgeek:

 

Flicks idea is a good one, but many can't be bothered with micro managing usage on a continual basis. We had a winter spike period, now a summer spike period. I will stay on EK.

 

 

Starting to wish we had stayed on EK as well. When I checked the other day they are now quoting a higher price than we were on. Was hoping to recoup some money from Winter before we jumped ship but considering our last bill on Flick had a negative saving I think we're in for a wait.


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  Reply # 1914401 7-Dec-2017 10:10
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Click to see full size


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  Reply # 1914403 7-Dec-2017 10:14
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Sam91:

 

Click to see full size

 

 

That graph sure keeps it in perspective, looks like you'd need this to continue and get worse for 12 weeks before you started loosing money.


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  Reply # 1914404 7-Dec-2017 10:14
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Sam91:

 

Click to see full size

 

 

Yep, so ignore the current spike, use power as normal, it doesnt matter. The flaw with Flick is the user. You get lowest rates, but you cant then have an issue when there are some higher rates. I dont call EK and complain that they are paying low rates, but charging me higher rates. Flick users should do the same. The only stat that matters is the annual savings stat. If that is a win, then forget spot price movements, just use the power as normal


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  Reply # 1914405 7-Dec-2017 10:17
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dantheperson:

 

Sam91:

 

Click to see full size

 

 

That graph sure keeps it in perspective, looks like you'd need this to continue and get worse for 12 weeks before you started loosing money.

 

 

To take it a step further, if that orange negative was the net loss for that entire period, its still chicken feed of a loss. In this particular case it just wiped away one week. The concern may grow if summer becomes like winter, re spikes.


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  Reply # 1914553 7-Dec-2017 12:36
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For most people, you should be able to get about 15% saving on Flick by doing nothing (just a guess from me)... just using power as normal. (Of course depends on how bad or good your previous price was... if you had a terrible price previously, then will be higher saving... if you had an excellent deal previously your saving might be lower!) (Note: also some people might always have higher unmoveable loads everyday which typically coincide with the expensive times, in which case Flick might not be the best provider for you)

 

Any time-shifting or turning off items during price spike will only FURTHER increase your year long saving! That is an added perk for those who want the hassle and the potential gains offered, but should be seen as grand-master, uber-geek type of advanced user. For everyone else, as long as you play the year-long game, then the few temporary high weeks will be completely offset by the week on week savings the rest of the year just by using your electricity normally. So just relax and flow with it.

 

Mike


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  Reply # 1914557 7-Dec-2017 12:42
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miked:

 

For most people, you should be able to get about 15% saving on Flick by doing nothing (just a guess from me)... just using power as normal. (Of course depends on how bad or good your previous price was... if you had a terrible price previously, then will be higher saving... if you had an excellent deal previously your saving might be lower!) (Note: also some people might always have higher unmoveable loads everyday which typically coincide with the expensive times, in which case Flick might not be the best provider for you)

 

Any time-shifting or turning off items during price spike will only FURTHER increase your year long saving! That is an added perk for those who want the hassle and the potential gains offered, but should be seen as grand-master, uber-geek type of advanced user. For everyone else, as long as you play the year-long game, then the few temporary high weeks will be completely offset by the week on week savings the rest of the year just by using your electricity normally. So just relax and flow with it.

 

Mike

 

 

Is this counting the maintenance going on, the dry summer, etc? Possibly not.





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  Reply # 1914754 7-Dec-2017 17:03
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I have been told that Flick Electric are close to being able to accept solar customers. And they have confirmed that they will pay you the wholesale rate for exported power. Which would work really well currently, as it is both mostly sunny during the daytime. And you would be able to take advantage of the spikes.

They are also running trials currently. So could be worth asking if someone has a large grid connect system, and low daytime usage.





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  Reply # 1914828 7-Dec-2017 19:04
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I get confused by all the units. So what would the current $183.82/MWh rate work out at. 18.3 cents /KWh? (less flicks margin)

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  Reply # 1914847 7-Dec-2017 20:24
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M -> K = / 1000. Move the dot three positions to the left. $183 /MWh = $0.183 / kwh.





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