Duck Curve – Eating Crow here…
Teach me to check my terms – even if I do think I remember their meaning.
But the South Island curve is essentially flat.
So the nature of the community’s power usage does shape the curve – although solar will (almost) always exacerbate it as (you so rightly point out, the sun rises & falls predictably. Not so predictable is its contribution.
That’s the obvious downside of the major Renewables (Solar/Wind/Wave) and makes them a (practical if not political) liability for any Grid. Without copious energy storage, or more or less aggressive deferral of consumption, you have to provide 100% backup of the grid’s maximum consumption from non-renewable power stations for the inevitable day or even hour when it’s dark & still. Even our NZ hydro needs a coal/gas backup plan for that 10 year drought.
That’s where Melbourne’s 10 minute Tesla parachute is really useful, it lets them kick something into life, when the lights flicker.
The more energy storage we can afford, the more honestly useful our Renewable power becomes.