Real estate, post level 4

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#2831263 13-Dec-2021 10:52

Indeed. Prices would be much more realistic now.

I guess the economy has morphed (as I think Bernard Hickey? said) to a "housing market with bits added on" - I don't remember being told the sky was going to fall in the 1990s and 2000s if house prices dropped dramatically. Mind you, there were a lot more houses back then (or was it less population?). In any case, the more houses the better. People like Ashley Church obviously have a vested interest to see prices go as high as possible.

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mattwnz

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#2832592 15-Dec-2021 01:14

Batman:

heavenlywild:

It seems like the more the powers that be tweak the rules, the higher the prices go, especially in Auckland.

well i think it would all be different if kiwibuild actually built 100,000 houses.

Just one kiwibuild home left https://www.kiwibuild.govt.nz/available-homes/ and it is a shoebox apartment costing half a million. Guessing the website listings will soon be going. Guessing based on the kiwibuild caps noone is wanting to build them at that price level anymore. It was such a major failure and FHBs were badly let down IMO

Divhon88

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#2832645 15-Dec-2021 06:48

I was really hopeful with Kiwibuild. Here in Rotorua there were only 8 units $480,000 3B 2T 1P 100sqm, I applied the 1st day the ballot opened and ofcourse it's as elusive as the lotto. From memory the best ones from the photo and features were in Marfell, New Plymouth.

It went from major failure to next level major failure when the gov't switched their focus to providing brandnew homes via kainga ora to the homeless.

tdgeek

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#2832654 15-Dec-2021 07:13

mattwnz:

It was such a major failure and FHBs were badly let down IMO

Yes it was a major failure, but as we all know, the ship had already sailed as far as affordable homes was concerned.

quickymart

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#2832660 15-Dec-2021 07:49

I was hopeful too about it, but as soon as I heard $650,000 in Auckland was deemed as now being "affordable", I lost interest. None of the properties were ever built anywhere near where I wanted to live, either.

mattwnz

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#2835350 19-Dec-2021 01:08

Divhon88:

I was really hopeful with Kiwibuild. Here in Rotorua there were only 8 units $480,000 3B 2T 1P 100sqm, I applied the 1st day the ballot opened and ofcourse it's as elusive as the lotto. From memory the best ones from the photo and features were in Marfell, New Plymouth.

It went from major failure to next level major failure when the gov't switched their focus to providing brandnew homes via kainga ora to the homeless.

Yes, this was so frustrating to see. So they appear to have instead shifted to providing what are essentially state houses, and from what I have seen of them they risk becoming ghettos of the future.

tdgeek:

Yes it was a major failure, but as we all know, the ship had already sailed as far as affordable homes was concerned.

The market can change quite quickly. Already there are a very large number of houses coming on the market, and banks have tightened up lending a lot. Not too much is selling in my area at the moment and an agent I know says inquiries have really dropped of. I see banks are also expecting price drops. IMO the only thing that seems to be indicating price rises is the increases in building material prices. Even the Reserve Bank however says that we have had one of the biggest building booms in recent history and that they expect prices to come back as they see supply catching up with demand. The market has definitely changed and there doesn't seem to be much FOMO at the moment as a result because people don't want to be overpaying.

tdgeek

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#2835352 19-Dec-2021 07:16

mattwnz:

The market can change quite quickly. Already there are a very large number of houses coming on the market, and banks have tightened up lending a lot. Not too much is selling in my area at the moment and an agent I know says inquiries have really dropped of. I see banks are also expecting price drops. IMO the only thing that seems to be indicating price rises is the increases in building material prices. Even the Reserve Bank however says that we have had one of the biggest building booms in recent history and that they expect prices to come back as they see supply catching up with demand. The market has definitely changed and there doesn't seem to be much FOMO at the moment as a result because people don't want to be overpaying.

I doubt it will change quickly. Most likely it will top out where it is now. Less sales as there are less buyers who can afford it. Those centres with better prices will probably see rises. While building material costs have risen and there are apparently shortages, you dont see much of that in the news now, just about new developments. If house prices stabilise many are locked out, so save more, demand will be less. Some areas may drop but Kiwis being Kiwis many will just hold off till they get their inflated price.

GV27

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#2835556 19-Dec-2021 16:02

mattwnz:

Just one kiwibuild home left https://www.kiwibuild.govt.nz/available-homes/ and it is a shoebox apartment costing half a million. Guessing the website listings will soon be going. Guessing based on the kiwibuild caps noone is wanting to build them at that price level anymore. It was such a major failure and FHBs were badly let down IMO

We waited as long as we possibly could for Kiwibuild, if we'd waited longer we would have been frozen out forever.

A horrible bait-and-switch, with FHBs now being outbid by the Govt for houses to provide state housing accommodation.

Those who actually managed to buy now face a haircut if prices walk back. It really is insanely hard to get by with previously safe middle-class professions, even the ones that used to comfortably pay the mortgage on one income.

tdgeek

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#2835574 19-Dec-2021 18:46

GV27:

We waited as long as we possibly could for Kiwibuild, if we'd waited longer we would have been frozen out forever.

A horrible bait-and-switch, with FHBs now being outbid by the Govt for houses to provide state housing accommodation.

Those who actually managed to buy now face a haircut if prices walk back. It really is insanely hard to get by with previously safe middle-class professions, even the ones that used to comfortably pay the mortgage on one income.

You're right, but it was already done before Covid came along, then we had the uber low interest rates. Bag Kiwibuild as much as you like but where was the Kiwibuild from National in the previous 9 years?

quickymart

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#2835575 19-Dec-2021 19:04

Oh according to them, "there is no housing crisis", remember? 😉 It wasn't until they realised they could lose the election that "suddenly" it became an important issue.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/304378/no-housing-crisis-in-nz-paula-bennett

tdgeek

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#2835585 19-Dec-2021 20:00

quickymart:

Oh according to them, "there is no housing crisis", remember? 😉 It wasn't until they realised they could lose the election that "suddenly" it became an important issue.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/304378/no-housing-crisis-in-nz-paula-bennett

Will it get votes then? No, so we will roll with no policies, but ideas.

kingdragonfly

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#2835643 19-Dec-2021 20:50

Divhon88:
I was really hopeful with Kiwibuild. Here in Rotorua there were only 8 units $480,000 3B 2T 1P 100sqm, I applied the 1st day the ballot opened and ofcourse it's as elusive as the lotto. From memory the best ones from the photo and features were in Marfell, New Plymouth.

Marfell rated by the NZ government as "Q5" / 20% most deprived housing / housing deprivation.

It does have a chequered past.

First-home buyers snapping up KiwiBuild homes in New Plymouth

18 February 2021

3 months later

Popularity of New Plymouth KiwiBuild development sees introduction of ballot system, angering potential homeowner

May 10 2021

Geektastic

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#2835675 19-Dec-2021 23:49

I would say that price increases will perhaps slow and possibly even plateau for a while in some places.

I would be very surprised if a significant fall occurred and it would be financially perilous to the nation as a whole if it did so I do hope some of the idiotic articles we see from time to time suggesting the government deliberately crash the market do not come true.

Kiwibuild was doomed to fail. If it was possible to build such cheap houses then it's highly likely somebody would have gone with the 'stack em high and sell em cheap' model by now and private individuals would have been building them for sure. The material cost is the material cost regardless of who is building.The labour costs are the labour costs. The only variable is the developer/builder profit.

It's difficult to figure out just what the government thought they could do that would result in cheaper houses other than use taxpayer's money (or debt) to effectively subsidise houses for some tax payers but not others. That wasn't likely to work well either.

Shared ownership models where a Housing Association owns the part of the house that the buyer cannot afford and charges a lowish rent on that portion, allowing the homeowner to buy the remainder as their circumstances improve would be a much more sensible way to go.

mattwnz

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#2835684 20-Dec-2021 00:42

Geektastic:

I would say that price increases will perhaps slow and possibly even plateau for a while in some places.

I would be very surprised if a significant fall occurred and it would be financially perilous to the nation as a whole if it did so I do hope some of the idiotic articles we see from time to time suggesting the government deliberately crash the market do not come true.

Kiwibuild was doomed to fail. If it was possible to build such cheap houses then it's highly likely somebody would have gone with the 'stack em high and sell em cheap' model by now and private individuals would have been building them for sure. The material cost is the material cost regardless of who is building.The labour costs are the labour costs. The only variable is the developer/builder profit.

It's difficult to figure out just what the government thought they could do that would result in cheaper houses other than use taxpayer's money (or debt) to effectively subsidise houses for some tax payers but not others. That wasn't likely to work well either.

Shared ownership models where a Housing Association owns the part of the house that the buyer cannot afford and charges a lowish rent on that portion, allowing the homeowner to buy the remainder as their circumstances improve would be a much more sensible way to go.

Lack of competition and the building industry is filled with too many small boutique companies and material supplier companies.

The government didn't put any money into the kiwibuild houses, that was done by private developers, and maybe that is part of the problem, because it just wasn't worth it for the developers. All that red tape to go through too. If we have to move to more of a shared ownership model, it only really reinforces that houses are too expensive in NZ and to build. When previous generation could afford to buy a house without the need for that. IMO we are going o get a lot of people leaving NZ because of all of this once the borders reopen.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some drop in house prices, and remember that this i also what most of the main NZ banks expect to see, as well as he Reserve Bank, and they are the experts. The fact is that some people will need to sell, and won't be able to hang out for a high price, and a bird in the hand is often worth two in the bush . Some people have also borrowed far too much and rising interest rates are going to be a problem for many, especially those who have purchased that these recently inflated prices.

tdgeek

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#2835747 20-Dec-2021 07:27

mattwnz:

Lack of competition and the building industry is filled with too many small boutique companies and material supplier companies.

The government didn't put any money into the kiwibuild houses, that was done by private developers, and maybe that is part of the problem, because it just wasn't worth it for the developers. All that red tape to go through too. If we have to move to more of a shared ownership model, it only really reinforces that houses are too expensive in NZ and to build. When previous generation could afford to buy a house without the need for that. IMO we are going o get a lot of people leaving NZ because of all of this once the borders reopen.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some drop in house prices, and remember that this i also what most of the main NZ banks expect to see, as well as he Reserve Bank, and they are the experts. The fact is that some people will need to sell, and won't be able to hang out for a high price, and a bird in the hand is often worth two in the bush . Some people have also borrowed far too much and rising interest rates are going to be a problem for many, especially those who have purchased that these recently inflated prices.

I doubt the lure of a cheap house overseas will happen, most places are the same as here

Experts? They all seem to get it wrong

No one has borrowed too much, they knew the price and they borrowed and bought. If they borrowed in the hope that rates will be forever low, more fool them. Are the prices inflated? They are market prices, what people will sell for and buy for, and in the main, they sold and bought them

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