Real estate, post level 4

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#2910006 4-May-2022 10:45

MikeAqua:

It will also be interesting to see the effect of a resurging tourism trade on the rental market. Properties will be moved from the rental market to the short stay market. There are plenty of places where you can make more on AirBnB in a few months than renting all year, simply because people can afford to pay more for holiday accommodation than they can for rent.

Historically the downside of AirBnB is the higher risk associated with short term guests, but that's probably less of a consideration now that the tenancy law changes have increased the risk of long term rental properties.

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wellygary

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#2910007 4-May-2022 10:51

alasta:

Historically the downside of AirBnB is the higher risk associated with short term guests, but that's probably less of a consideration now that the tenancy law changes have increased the risk of long term rental properties.

Yeah, there is lots of discussions happening in places like Wanaka /Q-town that people will not rent out seasonally under the new tenancy Rules

The new rules mean when a fixed length tenancy ends it automatically becomes periodic unless both parties agree... basically you cannot force the tenant to leave if they decide to stay over summer....

Historically many holiday houses were rented out for the winter season, but owners would use them in summer.....

quickymart

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#2912115 10-May-2022 08:07

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-front-page-podcast-significant-correction-under-way-who-will-be-hit-hardest-by-house-price-falls/6GKJG5WDMWQJYJKPCHJBTHGQKI/

Prices are trending down, but still from a fairly high level.

MikeAqua

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#2912131 10-May-2022 08:50

alasta:

Historically the downside of AirBnB is the higher risk associated with short term guests, but that's probably less of a consideration now that the tenancy law changes have increased the risk of long term rental properties.

The risk from a bad tenant is still higher than a bad AirBnB guest. A tenant can do just as much damage, they have a longer time to do it and they can not pay rent, while doing it. Also it's surprising exactly what the tenancy tribunal will consider fair wear and tear. For example and 'outside dog' chewing the skirting boards off the walls.

Also easier to insure for short term stay (well, that's what I found).

Mike

quickymart

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#2912982 12-May-2022 14:44

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/115745/westpac-report-picks-net-migration-growth-eventually-settle-around-half-pre

This would be nice, if it turned out to be accurate.

tdgeek

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#2912985 12-May-2022 14:47

quickymart:

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/115745/westpac-report-picks-net-migration-growth-eventually-settle-around-half-pre

This would be nice, if it turned out to be accurate.

Plus many expats who returned home will be expatting again in time. Just need to see how it all washes out. There is a building boom even though thats hit by supply issues, but that's a positive too, when supplies fix themselves eventually

mattwnz

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#2912998 12-May-2022 15:24

tdgeek:

quickymart:

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/115745/westpac-report-picks-net-migration-growth-eventually-settle-around-half-pre

This would be nice, if it turned out to be accurate.

Plus many expats who returned home will be expatting again in time. Just need to see how it all washes out. There is a building boom even though thats hit by supply issues, but that's a positive too, when supplies fix themselves eventually

The thing is that some of what is being built is pretty horrible, especially some of the high intensive stuff, and could be the slums of the future. They will likely be the first tones that have difficulty selling. That is what is happening in my old city, where new flats have been on the market since December and not selling despite price drops.

We are also going to get a lot of younger people heading overseas for their delayed OEs, and many won't return. The government is in control over the tap when it comes to increasing the population via immigration, and they can potentially control the demand on the housing stock using this. They had previously been bringing in people when there weren't enough houses, which is one of the causes of the housing crisis. We can only watch what happens over the next year. But rising interest rates mean the the mortgage people can afford to service, will be less, so buyers may not be able to pay as much, and sellers may not be able to get as much, which could bring down prices. IMO it was crazy that banks were stress testing at such low levels, when the low rates were only going to be temporary.

tdgeek

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#2913131 12-May-2022 18:48

mattwnz:

The thing is that some of what is being built is pretty horrible, especially some of the high intensive stuff, and could be the slums of the future. They will likely be the first tones that have difficulty selling. That is what is happening in my old city, where new flats have been on the market since December and not selling despite price drops.

We are also going to get a lot of younger people heading overseas for their delayed OEs, and many won't return. The government is in control over the tap when it comes to increasing the population via immigration, and they can potentially control the demand on the housing stock using this. They had previously been bringing in people when there weren't enough houses, which is one of the causes of the housing crisis. We can only watch what happens over the next year. But rising interest rates mean the the mortgage people can afford to service, will be less, so buyers may not be able to pay as much, and sellers may not be able to get as much, which could bring down prices. IMO it was crazy that banks were stress testing at such low levels, when the low rates were only going to be temporary.

If you or I built a house it wont be horrible. Anyone who does will suffer less demand.

Slums? Maybe, but we arent the UK. Apartments suit some , 1/4 acre sections suit others (like me) you can get both, just have proper expectations.

How can Give control immigration? Well yes they do. Will it be low paid migrants taking jobs(or going to court) or will it be jobs that Kiwis dont do?

Yes, people arrived here on a low course, got PR etc. I doubt that will happen moving forward. Unless Kiwis arent into any industry, then bring them in

Over the next year?? Its years in the making now. Decades of neglect by both parties, thats a decade minimum to fix, if whoever is in Govt wants to.

House prices will decline. Thats what everyone wants, so thats sorted

quickymart

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#2913140 12-May-2022 19:53

I'd just like a 2 (or 3) bedroom unit (I think I've got the right word?) with a little yard for my boys to play in. Near transport and shops. Doesn't need much else.

Have I got the terminology right?
Apartment = dwellings stacked on top of each other, high density. No yard space at all.

Townhouse = no neighbours below you or above you, only next to you. Usually doesn't have (or has a very, very small) yard space with them

Unit = one level only, with neighbours next you. Yard space is a bit more generous but not massive

House = standalone dwelling with a varying yard size.

kingdragonfly

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#2913152 12-May-2022 21:04

Strange story out of the USA

Daily Mail: Seattle couple in their 50s sell their home and retire to live on CRUISE SHIPS full-time after realizing it was cheaper than paying their mortgage

Former accountant Angelyn Burk, 53, and her husband, Richard, 51, love cruising, and through their marriage traveled by cruise at least once a year

They wanted to cruise full-time when they retired and realized they could do it sooner than they thought

In May 2021, they quit their jobs and sold their house - and don't plan to live on land again in the future

So far this year, they've spent about USD $89 per day total - which would come to about $32,485 per year

Annual mortgage repayments in Seattle, where homes currently average $958,027, would be about double that

cshwone

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#2913157 12-May-2022 22:45

kingdragonfly: Strange story out of the USA

Daily Mail: Seattle couple in their 50s sell their home and retire to live on CRUISE SHIPS full-time after realizing it was cheaper than paying their mortgage

Former accountant Angelyn Burk, 53, and her husband, Richard, 51, love cruising, and through their marriage traveled by cruise at least once a year

They wanted to cruise full-time when they retired and realized they could do it sooner than they thought

In May 2021, they quit their jobs and sold their house - and don't plan to live on land again in the future

So far this year, they've spent about USD $89 per day total - which would come to about $32,485 per year

Annual mortgage repayments in Seattle, where homes currently average $958,027, would be about double that

Migratory habits are rapidly developing amongst the retired. The Snowbirds from Canada who spend the canadian winter in New Mexico, Florida etc. UK pensioners heading to stay in hotels in the Costas of Spain as it's cheaper to live there in a hotel than to heat their house in the UK and eat as well !!

kingdragonfly

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#2913160 12-May-2022 23:34

Regarding retiring with no fixed abode/no fixed address, I guess the big difference between Americans and everyone else is the much greatest risk of going broke with a medical emergency.

The irony is that most of these American retirees are Republican, vehemently anti-socialist, and anti-"handouts". However they have no problems taking Medicare and Social Security handouts.

It's certain the next generation Americans will be much less likely to sell their home to fund their retirements.

It sucks to be young.

Divhon88

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#2916007 19-May-2022 15:59

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/budget-2022-first-home-buyer-caps-changed-affordable-housing-funding/DOPB77GJELQQCJA4YQ4KJQLEH4/#Echobox=1652931620

Gutted missed our $16,000 first home grant for having payrise of $9,500 in the last 12 months.

Zeon

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#2918416 25-May-2022 14:34

So the official cash rate could be nearing 4% by sometime next year. What happens if house mortgages reach 6-7%. People with their $1,000,000 mortgages are going to be paying $60,000-$70,000 in interest per year (including me with the 7 figure mortgage).... The ridiculous housing market had to catch up with us at some point...

Pretty glad I fixed for 3-years at 3.47% last October now....

Speedtest 2019-10-14

kingdragonfly

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#2919850 28-May-2022 22:25

Well, it's worse in China

The Secret behind China's Ghost Cities

serpentza

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