Real estate, post level 4

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#3157049 7-Nov-2023 16:12

mudguard:
quickymart:

Even adjusting these prices for today's inflation the properties for sale now are extremely overpriced. Why should someone be penalised because they didn't buy a house at the right time, ie, when prices were, well, normal?

Which inflation calculator did you use?
I tried the Reserve Bank's one and for $300,000 in 2002 it came back as $1,361,000 now

That would imply an average compounding inflation rate of 7.5% which doesn't sound right.

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wellygary

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#3157064 7-Nov-2023 16:51

alasta:

mudguard:

Which inflation calculator did you use?
I tried the Reserve Bank's one and for $300,000 in 2002 it came back as $1,361,000 now

That would imply an average compounding inflation rate of 7.5% which doesn't sound right.

CPI inflation makes 300K into ~500K,

If you flick the toggle to housing inflation you get 1.3M,-

Which is exactly the point being made, ( and that everyone knows) that house prices have risen much faster then general inflation

quickymart

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#3157077 7-Nov-2023 17:21

Yes, sorry - that was the point I was trying to make. The price I quoted ($350,000?) was from that Spinoff article which I can't find at the moment 😕

tweake

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#3157086 7-Nov-2023 18:05

mattwnz:

I wonder if they are one driver of FOMO as I recall similar stories by them during 2020 and 2021 when house prices were increasing significantly each month, driven by the ultra low interest rates.

the RE market is the driver of FOMO. todays stuff article of "yes you can to own your own home, just need to to find 2 others to help pay for it". which is similar to the ones of the last few years of " just get someone else to help pay for it and you both work two jobs each".

tweake

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#3157094 7-Nov-2023 18:07

itey: Very interesting times we live in,and I find the lack of action particularly troubling. I'm a mid 30s fully qualified gp after 10 years of university study (+ specialty study) and my young family are struggling to buy in Auckland. Many of my medical peers, and many of my young 20s patients have moved overseas. The loss of highly educated NZ'ers is highly troubling.
Me? We're renting for another year and then if we still cannot afford are off to AU, also.

its the lack of action from everyone, but of course national has promised to make it worse.

i would not blame you for going overseas. the question will become what people stay in nz? the rich who can afford to and those who can't escape.

quickymart

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#3157110 7-Nov-2023 18:57

I probably fall into the latter category - I have young children at school, so I can't go anywhere for a while yet.

mudguard

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#3157117 7-Nov-2023 19:54

wellygary:

Which is exactly the point being made, ( and that everyone knows) that house prices have risen much faster then general inflation

Yeah I saw that housing option so ticked that.
So I guess the question, has CPI and housing always been out of whack?
And is there any point using CPI anyway if it doesn't include housing? (I vaguely recall it might include rents)

kingdragonfly

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#3157170 8-Nov-2023 08:04

Impossible to implement here, as it requires government eliminating "Not in my backyard" objections, housing building standards, zoning laws, ...

Speaking of zoning laws, Houston Texas doesn't have any, so you'll find lonley solitary skyscapers in the middle of residential areas, a read hard hazard for low flying aircraft. I imagine it causes grief for infrastructure, like sewage, parking and water also.

I doubt Christopher Luxon has the balls to make serious changes, beyond rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, as it would involve a cultural shift.

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cddt

657 posts

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#3157229 8-Nov-2023 11:53

quickymart:

Of interest - I note for the house for removal in the third pic the prices aren't that different between then and now. So where did it all go so wrong? Were there just millions of vacant houses back at the turn of the century going for a song? Even adjusting these prices for today's inflation the properties for sale now are extremely overpriced. Why should someone be penalised because they didn't buy a house at the right time, ie, when prices were, well, normal?

The price in any market with limited supply is set by the marginal buyer. The marginal buyer over the past few decades has included wealthy foreigners with an incentive to shift money out of their home country, investors who don't pay any tax on capital gain, as well as double income couples with parental support.

Why is supply and demand out of balance? It's either too many people wanting to buy, or too few developments permitted by regulation to proceed.

cddt

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#3157236 8-Nov-2023 12:08

itey: Very interesting times we live in,and I find the lack of action particularly troubling. I'm a mid 30s fully qualified gp after 10 years of university study (+ specialty study) and my young family are struggling to buy in Auckland. Many of my medical peers, and many of my young 20s patients have moved overseas. The loss of highly educated NZ'ers is highly troubling.
Me? We're renting for another year and then if we still cannot afford are off to AU, also.

Out of interest, how much does a GP make?

kingdragonfly

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#3157246 8-Nov-2023 12:39

cddt: Out of interest, how much does a GP make?

Google is your ... well maybe not your friend ... but is easy.

However remember job recruiters will cherry pick figures to make jobs look more promising than reality.

https://www.enz.org/salary-general-practitioner.html

From Junior General Practitioner (GP) Doctor 85,000 – 100,000 Auckland

To VR, vocational register (introduced in 1989 by the Australia) General Practitioner (GP) Doctor up to 250,000 Dunedin, Otago

Just like the warning regarding job recruiters being unrealistic, world wide you should aim for the (impossible in NZ) ratio of 3X to 4X of your gross salary = your house price.

So barely affordable would be in Auckland would be a salary of NZ $253,750 for purchasing a median priced home of $1.02 million dollar home.

New Plymouth (North Island) Dunedin and Christchurch (South Island) give the best bang for high earners.

cddt

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#3157265 8-Nov-2023 14:00

kingdragonfly:

https://www.enz.org/salary-general-practitioner.html

From Junior General Practitioner (GP) Doctor 85,000 – 100,000 Auckland

To VR, vocational register (introduced in 1989 by the Australia) General Practitioner (GP) Doctor up to 250,000 Dunedin, Otago

Just like the warning regarding job recruiters being unrealistic, world wide you should aim for the (impossible in NZ) ratio of 3X to 4X of your gross salary = your house price.

So barely affordable would be in Auckland would be a salary of NZ $253,750 for purchasing a median priced home of $1.02 million dollar home.

New Plymouth (North Island) Dunedin and Christchurch (South Island) give the best bang for high earners.

It's rough because the training for a doctor is so long, so if you're early 30s and earning 85k you're probably behind your non-medical peers who graduated at 21 and have been working for 10+ years already.

Good to remember though that buying a house takes two incomes these days.

mattwnz

19385 posts

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#3157268 8-Nov-2023 14:26

kingdragonfly:
cddt: Out of interest, how much does a GP make?

Google is your ... well maybe not your friend ... but is easy.

However remember job recruiters will cherry pick figures to make jobs look more promising than reality.

https://www.enz.org/salary-general-practitioner.html

From Junior General Practitioner (GP) Doctor 85,000 – 100,000 Auckland

To VR, vocational register (introduced in 1989 by the Australia) General Practitioner (GP) Doctor up to 250,000 Dunedin, Otago

Just like the warning regarding job recruiters being unrealistic, world wide you should aim for the (impossible in NZ) ratio of 3X to 4X of your gross salary = your house price.

So barely affordable would be in Auckland would be a salary of NZ $253,750 for purchasing a median priced home of $1.02 million dollar home.

New Plymouth (North Island) Dunedin and Christchurch (South Island) give the best bang for high earners.

We have been conditioned to believe that those sorts of ratios no longer apply and are outdated due to the lower interest rates. So house prices in more recent times have been based around what mortgage someone can afford to service. So the lower the interest rates, the higher priced house someone can afford to service the mortgage on. The problem occurs when interest rates increase after being at historic lows, which can then leave many FHBs in particular people exposed. It does show that the stress test interest rates only being a few % above the rate at the time is a bit of a joke, and IMO it should be closer to 10% all the time, unless rates head higher. But people were getting stress tested a few years ago at 5-6%, and those people will likely be fixing well above that now. Their options could be to get more work, sell or move to Oz to earn more and rent out the house.

mattwnz

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#3157276 8-Nov-2023 14:51

tweake:

mattwnz:

I wonder if they are one driver of FOMO as I recall similar stories by them during 2020 and 2021 when house prices were increasing significantly each month, driven by the ultra low interest rates.

the RE market is the driver of FOMO. todays stuff article of "yes you can to own your own home, just need to to find 2 others to help pay for it". which is similar to the ones of the last few years of " just get someone else to help pay for it and you both work two jobs each".

MSM seem to have these articles queued up to be released every week or so. The common one is a young person still being able to buy a house. Then when you read the article, they are often using the bank of mum and dad in some way to buy it. The bank of mum and dad is one of the top lenders in NZ.

mattwnz

19385 posts

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#3157277 8-Nov-2023 14:53

cddt:

kingdragonfly:

https://www.enz.org/salary-general-practitioner.html

From Junior General Practitioner (GP) Doctor 85,000 – 100,000 Auckland

To VR, vocational register (introduced in 1989 by the Australia) General Practitioner (GP) Doctor up to 250,000 Dunedin, Otago

Just like the warning regarding job recruiters being unrealistic, world wide you should aim for the (impossible in NZ) ratio of 3X to 4X of your gross salary = your house price.

So barely affordable would be in Auckland would be a salary of NZ $253,750 for purchasing a median priced home of $1.02 million dollar home.

New Plymouth (North Island) Dunedin and Christchurch (South Island) give the best bang for high earners.

It's rough because the training for a doctor is so long, so if you're early 30s and earning 85k you're probably behind your non-medical peers who graduated at 21 and have been working for 10+ years already.

Good to remember though that buying a house takes two incomes these days.

That is pretty common with professional degrees. I remember our uni class being told on my first day of a professional degree, that if we expect to make lots of money, then we should leave and head off down to the Law school.

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