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quickymart
5713 posts

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  #2581886 9-Oct-2020 13:05
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I guess it was like that in the 1990s and 2000s then - there were more than enough houses, so prices were low (or reasonable). After 2010 is when everything changed.


wellygary
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  #2581893 9-Oct-2020 13:34
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quickymart:

 

I guess it was like that in the 1990s and 2000s then - there were more than enough houses, so prices were low (or reasonable). After 2010 is when everything changed.

 

 

Nope, earlier than that, between 2002 and 2007 house prices doubled,  and house prices to incomes /rents all also pretty much doubled

 

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Speeches/2013/5491417.pdf?revision=3b18cf08-8fa7-456c-b91e-2a3bf50eeea7

 

And if you want to look at a reason, in 1999 there was net outward migration of 9000, by 2002 this had swung to a inflow of 38,000 ( it dropped back to less than 5000 inward between 05-08,

 

Building consents in Auckland slumped from  2004 until about 2010

 

https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/building-consent-boom-continues#.X3-vMuR7ncs

 

 

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


quickymart
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  #2581928 9-Oct-2020 14:25
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Thanks, I didn't know that. Interesting.


quickymart
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  #2582344 10-Oct-2020 17:40
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tdgeek
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  #2582351 10-Oct-2020 18:23
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quickymart:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300128352/were-stuck-on-a-path-of-house-price-rises-that-is-hard-to-get-off

 

A look at what the various parties are doing about the situation.

 

 

How can you manually manage a situation where the reality is excess demand over supply? Now exacerbated by returning residents? All I can see the you can do is regulate that returning Kiwis/residents/immigrants are not allowed to buy a home they need to build one. You could also look into making rentals a great option, thereby increasing rental availability and competition.


quickymart
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  #2584248 14-Oct-2020 11:35
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wellygary
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  #2584254 14-Oct-2020 11:40
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quickymart:

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nz-herald-kantar-poll-reveals-what-kiwis-think-needs-to-happen-to-house-prices/44MZ4573B6RAEC7JSUC5QF5XWQ/

 

Paywalled, but unsurprisingly the majority of people would like to see prices drop.

 

 

Its a quite divided poll, of those, 18-29,  70% though prices should fall, for those 40+ it was only 46%

 

It was also very income split,  under 50K 62% should fall... over 100K 37%

 

I would have liked it if they had a do you currently rent  or not.... I think the poll would split down that line...


 
 
 
 


mattwnz
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  #2584269 14-Oct-2020 12:34
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quickymart:

I guess it was like that in the 1990s and 2000s then - there were more than enough houses, so prices were low (or reasonable). After 2010 is when everything changed.



According to a stuff article a few years ago, apparently there are well over 100,000 empty houses in NZ which people have purchased as an investment but would rather keep them empty than deal with tenants. Having Ghost houses is not good. t could be even worse now. That is a huge number of houses that have been taken out of our housing stock. Potentiality it could help solve the housing crisis of those people were forced to either rent them out or sell them. Then they are a lot being used for Airbnb etc. So much could have been done to solve the housing crisis but instead they have wanted the bubble to continue to inflate so people feel richer, so that people will spend. History has shown around the world that bubbles pop. So if it does happen, it is not a though it will be unexpected , and who will be most affected by it?

mattwnz
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  #2584279 14-Oct-2020 12:39
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wellygary:

quickymart:


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nz-herald-kantar-poll-reveals-what-kiwis-think-needs-to-happen-to-house-prices/44MZ4573B6RAEC7JSUC5QF5XWQ/


Paywalled, but unsurprisingly the majority of people would like to see prices drop.



Its a quite divided poll, of those, 18-29,  70% though prices should fall, for those 40+ it was only 46%


It was also very income split,  under 50K 62% should fall... over 100K 37%


I would have liked it if they had a do you currently rent  or not.... I think the poll would split down that line...



I think it is pretty simple. Most people will want prices to come down, until they own their own home. So older people are more likely to own their own home.

kingdragonfly

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  #2584281 14-Oct-2020 12:49
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I think AirBbb has crashed, but it's obviously not something easily surmised.

I think it would be popular to pass laws to severely curtail AirBnb, such as classifying advertising an more than 1/3 of an apartment or house would be treated as a hotel, with all their taxes and regulations.

Perhaps additionally making it illegal to place a listing more than 10 times a year, again otherwise you'll be treated as a hotel,

The type of small apartment, houses that are popular with AirBnb would also be popular for first time owner.

tdgeek
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  #2584284 14-Oct-2020 13:01
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mattwnz:
quickymart:

 

I guess it was like that in the 1990s and 2000s then - there were more than enough houses, so prices were low (or reasonable). After 2010 is when everything changed.

 



According to a stuff article a few years ago, apparently there are well over 100,000 empty houses in NZ which people have purchased as an investment but would rather keep them empty than deal with tenants. Having Ghost houses is not good. t could be even worse now. That is a huge number of houses that have been taken out of our housing stock. Potentiality it could help solve the housing crisis of those people were forced to either rent them out or sell them. Then they are a lot being used for Airbnb etc. So much could have been done to solve the housing crisis but instead they have wanted the bubble to continue to inflate so people feel richer, so that people will spend. History has shown around the world that bubbles pop. So if it does happen, it is not a though it will be unexpected , and who will be most affected by it?

 

Sept 2019  According to the latest Census data released by Statistics NZ, there were 1,855,929 dwellings throughout New Zealand in the 2018 Census, with 191,646 (10.3%) of them unoccupied. That was down slightly from the 10.6% of homes unoccupied in the 2013 Census.

 

BUT, and its a huge but, these are not empty homes as you suggest. It includes unoccupied homes as people are out of town or on holiday, or renovating so its empty, or a rental but in between tenants, or built but haven't moved in yet. There is no data on actual ghost homes. As this % is largely unchanged since 2013, there isnt a recent anomaly. It depends if ghost homes of this total are 23 or 23,000. I doubt that there will be thousands of homes worth $300,000 to $500,000 each sitting vacant for years on end. This is not Louisiana, where walk aways are not uncommon. There was a recent article last week on this, a dilapidated house in ChCh, falling apart is owned by Kiwis who now live in Australia, thats a ghost home, a bit bizarre.

 

However, no matter how small they are, anything to stop wastage is a good idea


tdgeek
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  #2584287 14-Oct-2020 13:10
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kingdragonfly: I think AirBbb has crashed, but it's obviously not something easily surmised.

I think it would be popular to pass laws to severely curtail AirBnb, such as classifying advertising an more than 1/3 of an apartment or house would be treated as a hotel, with all their taxes and regulations.

Perhaps additionally making it illegal to place a listing more than 10 times a year, again otherwise you'll be treated as a hotel,

The type of small apartment, houses that are popular with AirBnb would also be popular for first time owner.

 

Id like all immigrants to be unable to buy a house, they have to build. This way they dont impact the housing stocks. And they cant emmigrate to NZ and not build, otherwse they will just rent for ever and have the same negative effect. Exceptions for shorter term work visa stays. And residential homes can only be owned and lived in/rented out by residents who live in NZ, with exceptions to residents working overseas for a set period. The Govt could also buy a few builder companies  and get stuck into pre fab builds


halper86
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  #2584306 14-Oct-2020 13:23
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tdgeek:

 

Id like all immigrants to be unable to buy a house, they have to build. This way they dont impact the housing stocks. And they cant emmigrate to NZ and not build, otherwse they will just rent for ever and have the same negative effect. Exceptions for shorter term work visa stays. And residential homes can only be owned and lived in/rented out by residents who live in NZ, with exceptions to residents working overseas for a set period. The Govt could also buy a few builder companies  and get stuck into pre fab builds

 

 

I can't say I agree with this completely. Immigrants should be able to buy a house while they wait for a house to be built, however not rent. Rentals are the go to for first home buyers and the like because they don't have enough savings for a deposit. These days with a deposit of $160k (based on the median price of $800k), that will take years to save for. First home buyers are part of this FOMO panic that is going on at the moment, they feel the need to accomplish something and in this case buy and own a home.

 

My 2 cents


tdgeek
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  #2584316 14-Oct-2020 13:30
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halper86:

 

tdgeek:

 

Id like all immigrants to be unable to buy a house, they have to build. This way they dont impact the housing stocks. And they cant emmigrate to NZ and not build, otherwse they will just rent for ever and have the same negative effect. Exceptions for shorter term work visa stays. And residential homes can only be owned and lived in/rented out by residents who live in NZ, with exceptions to residents working overseas for a set period. The Govt could also buy a few builder companies  and get stuck into pre fab builds

 

 

I can't say I agree with this completely. Immigrants should be able to buy a house while they wait for a house to be built, however not rent. Rentals are the go to for first home buyers and the like because they don't have enough savings for a deposit. These days with a deposit of $160k (based on the median price of $800k), that will take years to save for. First home buyers are part of this FOMO panic that is going on at the moment, they feel the need to accomplish something and in this case buy and own a home.

 

My 2 cents

 

 

Immigrants buy a house while they wait for theirs to be built??? Thats a lot of hassle for a 6 month wait. They can rent but must build within a certain period

 

FHB are not part of the problem, they are a natural home grown source of home ownership, every day one dies and one is born. Their issue is they are locked out and that becomes harder each day. Fix the supply demand issue, you fix the price. Imagine if there were 45,500 houses excess in the market? Opposite to what we have right now. 


alasta
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  #2584331 14-Oct-2020 14:11
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mattwnz:

According to a stuff article a few years ago, apparently there are well over 100,000 empty houses in NZ which people have purchased as an investment but would rather keep them empty than deal with tenants.

 

That will probably increase now that it's about to get a whole lot harder to kick out tenants. I've seen first hand what happens when tenants go rogue, and I have to admit I'd rather sit on an empty house than take the risk of having tenants trashing the place while I'm desperately trying to gather three pieces of evidence without them assaulting me in the process.


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