Real estate, post level 4

Forums › Home Workshop DIY › Real estate, post level 4

1 | ... | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | ... | 160

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2667808 4-Mar-2021 16:24

wellygary:

mattwnz:

I should point out that a house I am interested in buying has been listed by an agent last month. This month the Evalue spiked up up 80k on some of these websites, from what it was just last month. It is now about 150k above the rateable value which was just done in september 2020. QV show that rateable value is the likely selling price at the time it is done less chattels as shown at QV https://www.qv.co.nz/about/about-rating-valuations/ . So there is no justification for the price rise that I can see, as to how it has gone up so much just after it was listed for sale. Especially as have have checked the selling price of all houses in the town over the last year for 2 bedroom houses on similar sized land and based on their locations in the town. I think there needs to be some sort of regulation, because people are using these sites to justify what they are offering. It is a terrible situation for first home buyers especially.

QV valuations for councils are often done with a very broad brush, I know of situation of two semidetached houses where there is a 20% variation in valuation, despite the houses having identical layouts ( inside and out).....

But that said there is a huge amount of FOMO being thrown around by agents at the moment, and there is pretty much nothing that will stop that save the market turning...

The issue I have is that the E-value from QV as of today, and the RV from a few months ago from QV are $140k different. $730k last valued by QV on the 1 Sep 2020 , compared to $870k valued as of 1/4/2021 using QVs Estimated market value. So both values are from the same company as an automated estimated market value at the time they are done. According to the QV website, the only difference is that the RV excludes chattels, which may add up to 20k for 12 year old chattels and carpet that needs replacing. That makes no sense to me at all.

I have heard a property expert say that the RV / CV risn't a market valuation at the time it is done, but purely for councils, so people shouldn't take much notice of it. But that somewhat contradicts the explanation on the QV website. It wasn't that long ago when people mainly used the RV / CV to get an idea on price, and this is why many people used to object to the RV price every 3 years when it came out, for being too low. Especially as if there is a natural disaster, the government may buy your property off you, and they may only pay the RV as occurred in Christchurch, so the RV has to be accurate. So many people in high risk areas could be exposed if their new RV doesn't reflect the current market value less chattels .

MightyApe

You will find anything you want at MightyApe (affiliate link).

tdgeek

28622 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667811 4-Mar-2021 16:32

mattwnz:

The issue I have is that the E-value from QV as of today, and the RV from a few months ago from QV are $140k different. $730k last valued by QV on the 1 Sep 2020 , compared to $870k valued as of 1/4/2021 using QVs Estimated market value. So both values are from the same company as an automated esitimated market value at the time they are done. According to the QV website, the only difference is that the RV excludes chattels, which may add up to 20k for 12 year old chattels and carpet that needs replacing. That makes no sense to me at all.

I guess if you valued your home back then and now, it has a higher value? The market is still rising so the values rise. Not price, or what its worth (cost of building less a discount as its not new), but todays value in the market.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2667813 4-Mar-2021 16:41

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

The issue I have is that the E-value from QV as of today, and the RV from a few months ago from QV are $140k different. $730k last valued by QV on the 1 Sep 2020 , compared to $870k valued as of 1/4/2021 using QVs Estimated market value. So both values are from the same company as an automated esitimated market value at the time they are done. According to the QV website, the only difference is that the RV excludes chattels, which may add up to 20k for 12 year old chattels and carpet that needs replacing. That makes no sense to me at all.

I guess if you valued your home back then and now, it has a higher value? The market is still rising so the values rise. Not price, or what its worth (cost of building less a discount as its not new), but todays value in the market.

Except in the last month, one of the e value websites has jumped the top e value price up to $880k, from previously $795k in Feb. Previously it was just rising gradually in line with the town. It just happens to correspond with when it was listed by an agent. Notice this with a lot of houses on the market, that once it gets listed, the e value jumps. When a small 2 bed house built in 2007, in a small NI town on a small 500sqm section of land costs in an average area costs nearly 900k, which is more than it would likely cost to build, IMO that is a major problem. I was working it out from the last sale in 2013, that it has more than doubled in value, which is a lot more than it should do. I heard a property expert say that house prices in NZ have doubled on average every 10 years, based on the last 40 years.

But I think the problem ATM is a lack of houses now on the market, and this may not be a good time to buy. Normally there are far more houses on the market than there are now, and very few new houses are coming on the market. Guessing a lot of people are just holding on. The question is whether those people will then flood the market or not, as some people will need to move and may have been putting it off. .

Handle9

9648 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667818 4-Mar-2021 16:48

mattwnz:

I think there needs to be some sort of regulation, because people are using these sites to justify what they are offering. It is a terrible situation for first home buyers especially.

Regulation of the accuracy of a service you get for free. Seems a novel concept.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2667819 4-Mar-2021 16:50

I was just discussing this with someone, and they were saying that the agents and these estimation websites essentially sensitize people into paying these high amounts. Then it is a viscous cycle, as outliers sales for high amounts, start to become the norm. IMO it is alot worse since the existence of these estimation websites.

Handle9

9648 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667834 4-Mar-2021 16:54

Is the cycle viscous because you have to be thick to rely on an e-valuation or because the prices have stuck high?

elpenguino

2915 posts

Uber Geek

#2667841 4-Mar-2021 17:23

Handle9:

Is the cycle viscous because you have to be thick to rely on an e-valuation or because the prices have stuck high?

Clearly it's because there is a lack of liquidity in the market.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2667849 4-Mar-2021 17:49

Handle9:

Is the cycle viscous because you have to be thick to rely on an e-valuation or because the prices have stuck high?

You only need enough people to rely on e-values- for them to become accepted. Othewise people will never be able to buy a house, because they will always be outbid, if they don't bid over what other people are offering. It is a bad situation. Also it is due to the lack of supply. Guessing at some point it will all improve, but depends if the government increases demand by increasing migration again. It is all in the governments hands.

Handle9

9648 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667850 4-Mar-2021 17:53

mattwnz:

Handle9:

Is the cycle viscous because you have to be thick to rely on an e-valuation or because the prices have stuck high?

You only need enough people to rely on e-values- for them to become accepted. Othewise people will never be able to buy a house, because they will always be outbid, if they don't bid over what other people are offering. It is a bad situation. Also it is due to the lack of supply. Guessing at some point it will all improve, but depends if the government increases demand by increasing migration again. It is all in the governments hands.

I think you've missed the joke.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2667943 4-Mar-2021 21:16

Auto Spelling on mobile.

dafman

3791 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#2667959 4-Mar-2021 22:05

It’s a bubble, pure and simple.

tdgeek

28622 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667968 4-Mar-2021 22:49

mattwnz:

Except in the last month, one of the e value websites has jumped the top e value price up to $880k, from previously $795k in Feb. Previously it was just rising gradually in line with the town. It just happens to correspond with when it was listed by an agent. Notice this with a lot of houses on the market, that once it gets listed, the e value jumps. When a small 2 bed house built in 2007, in a small NI town on a small 500sqm section of land costs in an average area costs nearly 900k, which is more than it would likely cost to build, IMO that is a major problem. I was working it out from the last sale in 2013, that it has more than doubled in value, which is a lot more than it should do. I heard a property expert say that house prices in NZ have doubled on average every 10 years, based on the last 40 years.

But I think the problem ATM is a lack of houses now on the market, and this may not be a good time to buy. Normally there are far more houses on the market than there are now, and very few new houses are coming on the market. Guessing a lot of people are just holding on. The question is whether those people will then flood the market or not, as some people will need to move and may have been putting it off. .

Yes they do double every 10 years ,always have. But its not linear, if your example has doubled in 7 years, thats ok, its not every exact 10 years, there are mini booms, then stable for ages. The last short few years, its a bit different to the long past. Interest rates are low, now they are super low, thats quite a change from the past. Roughly roughly speaking, house prices behaved similar to inflation. Not the same amount but on a similar trend. Today inflation is low and has been for a number of years, interest rates naturally should also be low, are house prices along that trend? Nope. In the past inflating prices and wages caused everything to rise, including houses they just followed the purchasing power trend. Now that inflation is near gone and houses are rising faster.

Yes, building is the issue, but we seem to have enough to live in. Now, there are more renters than owners

tdgeek

28622 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667970 4-Mar-2021 22:52

mattwnz:

I was just discussing this with someone, and they were saying that the agents and these estimation websites essentially sensitize people into paying these high amounts. Then it is a viscous cycle, as outliers sales for high amounts, start to become the norm. IMO it is alot worse since the existence of these estimation websites.

I think thats back to front. demand and supply dictate house prices. These sites are just tagging along helping out "their" industry. Real Estate Agents. I do feel it isn't helping, though, but I think there are other factors that are the cause these are just a few RE agent leeches

tdgeek

28622 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667971 4-Mar-2021 22:54

mattwnz:

You only need enough people to rely on e-values- for them to become accepted. Othewise people will never be able to buy a house, because they will always be outbid, if they don't bid over what other people are offering. It is a bad situation. Also it is due to the lack of supply. Guessing at some point it will all improve, but depends if the government increases demand by increasing migration again. It is all in the governments hands.

He was joking about viscous, which means thick, like oil viscosity :-) And honey.

tdgeek

28622 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2667977 4-Mar-2021 23:01

dafman:

It’s a bubble, pure and simple.

Yep. I've owned property since I was 19. Its just a numbers game. Back in the day inflation took care of business, and everything more or less inflated year in and year out. So your salary doubled like your house like the brand new car. Normal.

But these days its a bubble as houses are rising and incomes aren't. If there was a correction of minus 30% who cares as its just rolling house prices back a few short years. But of course that will hurt those that bought recently, and it will also hurt those that didn't buy recently as all this supposedly free money to buy holidays and cars and retail is now gone. Unhappy retail sector. Yes, its a bubble, someone needs to manage it so it stays blown up but doesn't burst.

1 | ... | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | ... | 160