2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Batman

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#265423 21-Jan-2020 08:50

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Every few years, a new type of coronavirus that normally doesn't infect humans mutates in China and infects humans ... have lost count how many now, but makes me think something fishy is going on there ... or maybe just the sheer population of livestock there mixed with massive population of humans? Anyway, it won't be funny if one day it causes a real pandemic.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/118920223/humantohuman-transmission-confirmed-in-china-coronavirus

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

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#2402778 21-Jan-2020 09:14

Pigs? Or bird source?

Rikkitic

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#2402830 21-Jan-2020 10:31

No-one seems to know for sure. They have traced it to a local market.

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Varkk

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#2402847 21-Jan-2020 11:00

Batman:

Every few years, a new type of coronavirus that normally doesn't infect humans mutates in China and infects humans ... have lost count how many now, but makes me think something fishy is going on there ... or maybe just the sheer population of livestock there mixed with massive population of humans? Anyway, it won't be funny if one day it causes a real pandemic.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/118920223/humantohuman-transmission-confirmed-in-china-coronavirus

I think it is a simple numbers game. Put enough people and livestock together eventually something will mutate and be able to make the jump. China has so many people and so much livestock to support/feed those people that it can and does happen. India would be another possible place such a thing could occur.

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#2402887 21-Jan-2020 11:24

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Varkk:

Batman:

Every few years, a new type of coronavirus that normally doesn't infect humans mutates in China and infects humans ... have lost count how many now, but makes me think something fishy is going on there ... or maybe just the sheer population of livestock there mixed with massive population of humans? Anyway, it won't be funny if one day it causes a real pandemic.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/118920223/humantohuman-transmission-confirmed-in-china-coronavirus

I think it is a simple numbers game. Put enough people and livestock together eventually something will mutate and be able to make the jump. China has so many people and so much livestock to support/feed those people that it can and does happen. India would be another possible place such a thing could occur.

but makes me think something fishy is going on there ...
Mmmmm - but China's growth is starting to slow down so why experiment.

India would be another possible place such a thing could occur.
They have just as many livestock living in close proximity to humans as China and their cities are even more dirty than China.

Anyway, it won't be funny if one day it causes a real pandemic.
Quite correct. More people died during Spanish flu pandemic than died in WW1 of the same era 1918 - which was the deadliest in history, infecting an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet's population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims. The reason for the spread of course was the returning of WW1 combatants and support personal. Travel now is exponentially greater and faster now than then and even with today's medicine and quarantine procedures it would be horrific.

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gzt

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#2402914 21-Jan-2020 11:49

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Batman: Every few years, a new type of coronavirus that normally doesn't infect humans mutates in China and infects humans ... have lost count how many now, but makes me think something fishy is going on there ... or maybe just the sheer population of livestock there mixed with massive population of humans? Anyway, it won't be funny if one day it causes a real pandemic.

My recollection of the past causes are feeding dead animal products to livestock, livestock in close proximity to water sources.

The China China headline is misplaced. UK/EU had a problem with cow to human brain disease transmission not so long ago.

As for the India comment, it's always possible. In practice imo India has multiple factors making this less likely. Probably a lot less animal slaughter per head of population for example.

Batman

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#2402922 21-Jan-2020 11:58

gzt:
Batman: Every few years, a new type of coronavirus that normally doesn't infect humans mutates in China and infects humans ... have lost count how many now, but makes me think something fishy is going on there ... or maybe just the sheer population of livestock there mixed with massive population of humans? Anyway, it won't be funny if one day it causes a real pandemic.

My recollection of the past causes are feeding dead animal products to livestock, livestock in close proximity to water sources.

The China China headline is misplaced. UK/EU had a problem with cow to human brain disease transmission not so long ago.

As for the India comment, it's always possible. In practice imo India has multiple factors making this less likely. Probably a lot less animal slaughter per head of population for example.

Ah I see. so it must be the practice that feeds the cycles. so if they had a prion disease that would be bad. But then again, I don't think this practice is necessarily limited to just the chinese farmers.

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

Fred99

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#2403278 22-Jan-2020 00:13

The last two serious coronavirus epidemics (SARS and MERS) are thought to have had a reservoir host in bats, then jumped the species barrier to an intermediate host (serval cat in China, possibly camels in the ME) before jumping again to humans.

These are RNA viruses, no "error-correction", they mutate rapidly.

Reports suggest that some people can be infected and contagious with very mild symptoms / no fever. That makes airport screening basically useless.

Chinese authorities uploaded the virus genome, USA CDC has already got a RTPCR test, their website states that this will be made available internationally.

WHO has an emergency meeting tomorrow. It'll be interesting (understatement) to read what they recommend.

Earlier reports (from China) suggested that 15% of patients suffered respiratory distress.

I wouldn't trust the data (currently 297 confirmed cases / 4 deaths), it's too early to know, but on the positive side, SARS seemed to be far more virulent with much higher mortality in the early stage of the epidemic.

Fred99

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#2405378 23-Jan-2020 16:45

Oops - that should be "civet" not serval (cat).

WHO's DG has issued a statement, including:

There was an excellent discussion during the committee today, but it was also clear that to proceed, we need more information.

For that reason, I have decided to ask the Emergency Committee to meet again tomorrow to continue their discussion, and the Chair, Dr Houssin, has agreed with that request.

The decision about whether or not to declare a public health emergency of international concern is one I take extremely seriously, and one I am only prepared to make with appropriate consideration of all the evidence.

FWIW, there's 582 confirmed cases and now 17 confirmed deaths.

How many have the infection isn't known. There are a significant number in critical/intensive care. There's a suggestion that with many of the deaths, patients had some co-morbidity / pre-existing condition, but I haven't seen that defined (ie could be asthma, could be something immuno-suppressive, whatever...). If the number of patients needing mechanical ventilation is high, then they'll run out of hospital beds. There's also the possibility that like SARs, some patients recovering from that condition have a range of ongoing medical issues.

In my opinion, we got lucky with SARS - it was able to be contained.

Scott3

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#2405420 23-Jan-2020 16:55

It is important to note that in 2003 the Chinese government drastically under reported the number of SARS cases.

There is concern that the same thing is happening (mostly at a local / regional level within china), a number of journalists have identified number of offshore infections is disproportionately high relative to the reported numbers within china.

On the positive side, this seems to be taken very seriously. Public transport is shut down in Wuhan, and the city is pretty much quarantined.

No body knows how bad this one will get, but airline share prices have dropped a few points...

Fred99

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#2405435 23-Jan-2020 17:24

It may not be deliberate under-reporting. If the symptoms (for some) are relatively mild - cold or 'flu like, then many people won't seek medical attention, so there's no way of knowing. I suppose in China, if they do seek attention, some will go to traditional medicine - or a pharmacy. Sure, you can get pretty sick with 'flu, but in most cases a doctor isn't going to be able to help you much anyway (possibly anti-virals in some cases).

Fred99

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#2405685 24-Jan-2020 10:39

WHO has not declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. They reconvene in 10 days.

Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.

FWIW, an R0 of >1 indicates risk of epidemic/pandemic (1.0 = 1 infected person passes the infection on to 1 person), 1.4-2.5 is consistent with 'flu pandemics. For comparison, measles has an estimated R0 of 18 (in a population with zero immunity).

Wuhan has been quarantined (road, rail and air links shut down - for a city of ~10 million people, that's pretty drastic). "The cities of Huanggang, Ezhou, Chibi and Zhijiang, adjacent to Wuhan, will also be placed under a similar quarantine from 24 January 2020 onwards. (in total, about 20 million people in China are quarantined)

On the positive side, there have been no reports of human-human transmission from any of the cases outside China.

tdgeek

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#2405692 24-Jan-2020 10:45

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Fred99:

WHO has not declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. They reconvene in 10 days.

Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.

FWIW, an R0 of >1 indicates risk of epidemic/pandemic (1.0 = 1 infected person passes the infection on to 1 person), 1.4-2.5 is consistent with 'flu pandemics. For comparison, measles has an estimated R0 of 18 (in a population with zero immunity).

Wuhan has been quarantined (road, rail and air links shut down - for a city of ~10 million people, that's pretty drastic). "The cities of Huanggang, Ezhou, Chibi and Zhijiang, adjacent to Wuhan, will also be placed under a similar quarantine from 24 January 2020 onwards. (in total, about 20 million people in China are quarantined)

On the positive side, there have been no reports of human-human transmission from any of the cases outside China.

I think they have done a sterling job so far. The Lunar New Year is a HUGE celebration, yet they have literally shut the city down. Its typical for the culture to cover up negative issues, but IMHO a 10/10 so far.

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#2406111 24-Jan-2020 14:51

It's turned out that the cause, while still a bit fishy, is probably very simple - the Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals. Bats, koalas, you name it. The wild animals must carry diseases which spread, and sometimes cause an outbreak!

Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.

tdgeek

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#2406118 24-Jan-2020 15:05

Batman:

It's turned out that the cause, while still a bit fishy, is probably very simple - the Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals. Bats, koalas, you name it. The wild animals must carry diseases which spread, and sometimes cause an outbreak!

I dont think they eat bats. Bats carry about 60 viruses, that cant be transmitted to humans, but they can get to humans via another animal. The virus isnt recognised by the human so the human body doesnt try to destroy it. They reckon raw meat of different type of animals allowed the transfer, I think they had some Crivet Cats also? That are supposed to be banned? Something roughly like that. Now I heard snakes might be the cause. I assume bats caused the Australia and Middle East outbreaks

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#2406128 24-Jan-2020 15:24

tdgeek:

I dont think they eat bats. Bats carry about 60 viruses, that cant be transmitted to humans, but they can get to humans via another animal. The virus isnt recognised by the human so the human body doesnt try to destroy it. They reckon raw meat of different type of animals allowed the transfer, I think they had some Crivet Cats also? That are supposed to be banned? Something roughly like that. Now I heard snakes might be the cause. I assume bats caused the Australia and Middle East outbreaks

Surely not.. yet https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920573/Revolting-footage-shows-Chinese-woman-eating-bat-scientists-link-coronavirus-animal.html

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