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932 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2434763 8-Mar-2020 23:09
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I'm not sure if it has been posted here before, But doctors in Milan have indicated, in a warning letter to medical staff in other areas that 10% of confirmed covid-19 cases require ICU admission. "We wish to convey a strong message. Get ready!"

 

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/who-urges-whole-government-covid-19-tack-cases-climb-globally

 

 

 

 

 

NZ has approximatly 5 ICU beds / 100,000 population. that means around 230 beds (can't find a good recent source on this, happy to be corrected.

 

As a stab in the dark, I would guess that half those beds would be tied up by everyday things that can be canceled like elective operations. (again happy to be corrected) = 115 ICU beds.

 

 

 

 

 

This means if the Milan ICU admission ratio holds true in NZ, our ICU capacity will be overwelmed when we reach 1150 confirmed cases.

 

This source puts the doubling time for confirmed cases at 4 days outside of china:

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#growth-the-doubling-time-of-covid-19-cases

 

If the 4 day doubeling time holds true, based on our current 5 cases, we have 36 days until our hospital ICU capacity is over-run.

 

Once ICU beds are full, many of those who have been admired (10% in milan) will die.

 

Lots of "if" statements in the above, but this is very scary to me with no expert knowledge.


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2434765 8-Mar-2020 23:17
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Old news, but the USA CDC recommended elderly 'Stay home and avoid face-to-face contact'

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8071035/CDC-urges-senior-citizens-stay-home-avoid-face-face-contact-coronavirus-spreads.html

 

The situation in the USA sounds quite a bit worse than the USA, but potentially it is an early warning of things to come here.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2434770 9-Mar-2020 00:15
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Scott3:

 

Old news, but the USA CDC recommended elderly 'Stay home and avoid face-to-face contact'

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8071035/CDC-urges-senior-citizens-stay-home-avoid-face-face-contact-coronavirus-spreads.html

 

The situation in the USA sounds quite a bit worse than the USA, but potentially it is an early warning of things to come here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It does appear to be getting worse in both UK and Oz, as well as the US. From what I read, next week they are going to be restricting elderly in the UK to their homes, due to the lack of NHS resources, and have asked young people to visit their older parents of grandparents now. This seem to be unprecedented in modern times. It does appear ion Europe that it is killing 1-2% of people who get it, which is very high, 10-20 times higher than the seasonal flu

 

How is the way NZ is currently managing this, differ from how either the UK or Oz have handled it? We are essentially a few weeks behind, and am wondering if we shouldn't be following what China did, and really get on top of it now, as what they have done appears to have worked? I don't want to look back in 1-2 months time, and wish they had done something back at this point in time as of early March 2020 .

 

 


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  #2434777 9-Mar-2020 01:42
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mattwnz:

 

 

 

It does appear to be getting worse in both UK and Oz, as well as the US. From what I read, next week they are going to be restricting elderly in the UK to their homes, due to the lack of NHS resources, and have asked young people to visit their older parents of grandparents now. This seem to be unprecedented in modern times. It does appear ion Europe that it is killing 1-2% of people who get it, which is very high, 10-20 times higher than the seasonal flu

 

How is the way NZ is currently managing this, differ from how either the UK or Oz have handled it? We are essentially a few weeks behind, and am wondering if we shouldn't be following what China did, and really get on top of it now, as what they have done appears to have worked? I don't want to look back in 1-2 months time, and wish they had done something back at this point in time as of early March 2020 .

 

 

 

 

A bit tough to do if live in same house. I have asthma as well, don't know if that increases risk, do a physical job so work from home not an option.




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  #2434782 9-Mar-2020 06:52
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Rikkitic:

 

What's that saying, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure? I'm not any kind of expert in this area, I just feel there ought to be some measures in place to prevent problems before they occur, instead of chasing them after the fact.

 

  

 

 

 

 

all comes down to $$$.

 

only way to guarantee prevention is full lockdown. - like China, it's working. but it's in response to epidemic and not as prevention. other places are the same. Italy now in lockdown.

 

full lockdown:

 

nobody comes in nobody goes out. (planes & ships for NZ, + buses & trains for Europe say)

 

nobody meets nobody. (all work & school stops)

 

it will prevent. but:

 

country goes bankrupt but everybody lives.

 

VS

 

carry on, knowing some will die (1-3%) but everybody & country won't go bankrupt.

 

but as it turns out, it may be a lose - lose as people seem to be going bankrupt regardless.

 

humans think we're at the top of the invincibility chain and only AI or the climate would wipe us out, but it seems something small as a virus might be more than our match.

 

 

 

someone mentioned in the first few pages, the disease is so widespread because it's in a way, milder than the panic it creates. if it kills everyone the disease will end itself abruptly and "burn out".





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2434787 9-Mar-2020 07:21
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mattwnz:

 

 

 



I understand it is cut and packaged here. But the raw product comes from overseas on huge rolls. The RNZ story wasn't that long ago so would be very surprised if it has now shifted ask of the production to NZ as I suspect the imported product is cheaper. I have just checked the packaging on mine and it says made in NZ from imported materials.

 

Here is what I read, given what Judith said, and that Purex has a factory at Kawerau, and that Tasman Pulp and Paper is there as well, it seemed to be 100% Made in NZ

 

 

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/coronavirus-judith-collins-explains-why-you-don-t-need-to-panic-buy-toilet-paper.html

 

http://www.purex.co.nz/history

 

https://www.engineeringnz.org/our-work/heritage/heritage-records/tasman-pulp-and-paper-mill/

 

On the Tasman Pulp and Paper link, High white, low coarseness bleached radiata pine kraft pulp is produced from specially selected woodchips. It is produced at the Tasman Mill and designed for use in tissue products where ease of refining and softness are required.


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  #2434788 9-Mar-2020 07:43
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mattwnz:

 

 

 

How is the way NZ is currently managing this, differ from how either the UK or Oz have handled it? We are essentially a few weeks behind, and am wondering if we shouldn't be following what China did, and really get on top of it now, as what they have done appears to have worked? I don't want to look back in 1-2 months time, and wish they had done something back at this point in time as of early March 2020 .

 

 

 

 

I commented earlier that the lady who came back from Italy, went to two medical centres, went to two schools, then flew to Palmy should have self isolated. The reply here was that Italy wasnt on the list of you need to self isolate. Just keep an eye on it. I went thru my work emails, when she arrived, Italy was No.3 in the world with 322 total cases, behind China and South Korea. Well, the MoH policy should have been you MUST self isolate, end of story. Yes, Italy is now a huge hotbed, but it was big when she arrived as well. That is very much a risk and reward call, highly favouring risk for this example.


 
 
 
 


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  #2434790 9-Mar-2020 07:53
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mattwnz:

 

 

 

It does appear to be getting worse in both UK and Oz, as well as the US. From what I read, next week they are going to be restricting elderly in the UK to their homes, due to the lack of NHS resources, and have asked young people to visit their older parents of grandparents now. This seem to be unprecedented in modern times. It does appear ion Europe that it is killing 1-2% of people who get it, which is very high, 10-20 times higher than the seasonal flu

 

How is the way NZ is currently managing this, differ from how either the UK or Oz have handled it? We are essentially a few weeks behind, and am wondering if we shouldn't be following what China did, and really get on top of it now, as what they have done appears to have worked? I don't want to look back in 1-2 months time, and wish they had done something back at this point in time as of early March 2020 .

 

 

 

 

for a start we dont have the population density of most countries, for a good comparison look at Denmark and how they are handling it  and most of their cases are people who have travelled back from other countries and most are quarantined at home. 

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Denmark





Common sense is not as common as you think.


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  #2434791 9-Mar-2020 08:02
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vexxxboy:

 

 

 

for a start we dont have the population density of most countries, for a good comparison look at Denmark and how they are handling it  and most of their cases are people who have travelled back from other countries and most are quarantined at home. 

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Denmark

 

 

I agree, except here, most are not quarantined at home. Well, they are now, after the fact of going to two schools, two medical centres, and a flight to Palmy an back. The rule should have been, if you return from an infected country, particularly Italy which was No.3 in the world when she arrived, you MUST quarantine at home. Unlike Denmark, that didnt happen. A site I was at on the weekend had a list of the numbers of close contacts and casual contacts the 5 infected had, that was an avoidable risk. IMHO


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  #2434794 9-Mar-2020 08:07
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As per the Denmark link

 

On 28 February, a man who had returned home from a ski holiday in Northern Italy on 15 February tested positive at Rigshospitalet in Copenhagen and was placed in home quarantine.[9] The case was considered problematic because of the relatively long time that had passed from the person returning to Denmark to him contacting the authorities, increasing the period where he might have infected others and potentially making it more complex for the authorities to locate everybody that had been in close contact with him

 

A one person problem became a multiple person problem. Each of his close contacts will have also had close contacts with others and so on, thats where medical resources end up being stretched. Its not managing each new infected person, its the resiurces required to find all the contacts amd manage them. 1 becomes 10 becomes 100. And even if the "extra" 99 were in the clear, there will he been umpteen medical staff hours consumed 


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  #2434800 9-Mar-2020 08:23
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From a few individual cases being reported last night:

 

A woman from Indonesia, confirmed infected in Melbourne.  Flew Jakarta to Perth on 27 Feb, Perth to Melbourne on 6 March.

 

Probably acquired Covid 19 in Jakarta - at least a week before Indonesia declared their first case identified - so officially at the time she left there were no cases in Indonesia.

 

An Australian man confirmed infected in Hobart.  He'd travelled from Nepal on 26 Feb, transit via Singapore.  Yet Nepal has only one confirmed case.

 

First case in Bhutan.  An American man from Washington DC.  Left DC on 18 Feb, travelled in India from 21 Feb, then flew to Bhutan on March 2. On 18 Feb, there were no confirmed cases in Washington DC.

 

In each of those cases, the patients could have acquired the infection on a plane, but I don't think that's likely.  Yet the chances of them acquiring the disease in Indonesia, Nepal, or India are "according to official statistics" negligible, and it's also highly unlikely they acquired the infection in Australia or Bhutan.

 

What's probably going on there, in my opinion and because the alternatives are too improbable - is that there are significant and unreported large outbreaks in Indonesia, Nepal, and India. I expect they've got "silent" epidemics happening, the scale of what's happening won't be seen until cases spike above the normal background of pneumonia cases.

 

 

 

 


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  #2434811 9-Mar-2020 08:56
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Same in Italy. As the Wuhan escape the virus/avoid inconvenience exodus. Equals spread it wider

 

There was chaos and confusion in the hours before Conte signed the decree, as word leaked to the news media about the planned quarantine. Students at the University of Padua in northern Italy who had been out at bars on a Saturday night (local time) saw the rumours on their cellphones and rushed back to their apartments to grab their belongings and head to the train station.

 

Hundreds of passengers, some wearing face masks and rubber gloves, crammed onto the last local train leaving Padua at 11:30 pm. Anxious students wrapped scarves around their heads, shared sanitising gel, and sat on their suitcases in the aisles. No conductor came by to check tickets.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/120107598/coronavirus-italy-to-lock-down-milan-and-northern-provinces

 

 


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  #2434816 9-Mar-2020 09:05
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Scott3:

 

I'm not sure if it has been posted here before, But doctors in Milan have indicated, in a warning letter to medical staff in other areas that 10% of confirmed covid-19 cases require ICU admission. "We wish to convey a strong message. Get ready!"

 

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/who-urges-whole-government-covid-19-tack-cases-climb-globally

 

 

Using Italy as a base case to extrapolate NZ figures is probably not a great idea as the age structures of the populations are significantly different (and we know the hospitalisation rates increase by age)

 

Italy has the highest percentage of those aged over 65 (22.6 percent as of 2018) than any of the other country in the EU, in NZ the over 65 is 14%,


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Ultimate Geek


  #2434817 9-Mar-2020 09:09
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A woman at work returned from northern italy last week and strolled into the office without a care in the world, sat in the desk next to me. I dont think she is sick but shouldn't people like that stay home? I made a comment about the travel restrictions and she said she missed them by a couple of days. Not sure if shes aware that virus's dont care about borders and travel restrictions.

Am I being paranoid?

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  #2434818 9-Mar-2020 09:13
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MileHighKiwi: A woman at work returned from northern italy last week and strolled into the office without a care in the world, sat in the desk next to me. I dont think she is sick but shouldn't people like that stay home? I made a comment about the travel restrictions and she said she missed them by a couple of days. Not sure if shes aware that virus's dont care about borders and travel restrictions.

Am I being paranoid?

 

No. I'd be ropeable. Does your workplace have any rules in place?


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