I'm not sure if it has been posted here before, But doctors in Milan have indicated, in a warning letter to medical staff in other areas that 10% of confirmed covid-19 cases require ICU admission. "We wish to convey a strong message. Get ready!"
NZ has approximatly 5 ICU beds / 100,000 population. that means around 230 beds (can't find a good recent source on this, happy to be corrected.
As a stab in the dark, I would guess that half those beds would be tied up by everyday things that can be canceled like elective operations. (again happy to be corrected) = 115 ICU beds.
This means if the Milan ICU admission ratio holds true in NZ, our ICU capacity will be overwelmed when we reach 1150 confirmed cases.
This source puts the doubling time for confirmed cases at 4 days outside of china:
If the 4 day doubeling time holds true, based on our current 5 cases, we have 36 days until our hospital ICU capacity is over-run.
Once ICU beds are full, many of those who have been admired (10% in milan) will die.
Lots of "if" statements in the above, but this is very scary to me with no expert knowledge.