2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 1001 | 1002 | 1003 | 1004 | 1005 | 1006 | 1007 | 1008 | 1009 | 1010 | 1011 | ... | 2398

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2573980 25-Sep-2020 09:13

kingdragonfly: Let's do this here.

How Dogs Are Sniffing Out Covid-19

Bloomberg QuickTake

It's not just the elusive vaccine that will defeat Covid-19, scientists are looking at all sorts of methods to contain the pandemic. One of the more unusual could be in recruiting man's best friend. Scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine believe that they can train dogs with a particularly keen sense of smell to diagnose people with the illness, even if they are displaying no symptoms.

This is really interesting - but with a proviso that the dogs can smell signs of infection, but not specifically C-19 - so the detection could be from some other viral flu/cold-like illness.

However, the alternatives (ie for airport screening for fever, pre-flight PCR tests etc) aren't good enough to be of much use. People can take antipyretics (paracetamol, NSAIDS) if they've got a fever to evade screening (this isn't hypothetical - they do it on purpose, anything to avoid missing a flight) and anyway fever isn't always present with C-19, nor if fever is present is it always corresponding to when the person is infective. PCR testing may be a gold standard, but with a high false negative rate, and too slow to get results (or faster but with low testing capacity).

But anyway, if you're sick with a fever then you shouldn't be getting on a plane (or going to other high-risk of transmission places) regardless of what's making you sick.

Whether people will be happy to be screened by this method is another question. "Sorry - the dog says you're not getting on the plane" is not like ie drug/food smuggling and quickly resolved by checking luggage etc, and it's pretty clear that there are a significant number of people who just don't give a damn about spreading C19.

Norton

Get easy to use, easy to install Norton antivirus protection against advanced online threats (affiliate link).

frankv

5581 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2574087 25-Sep-2020 10:36

Fred99:

kingdragonfly: Let's do this here.

How Dogs Are Sniffing Out Covid-19

This is really interesting - but with a proviso that the dogs can smell signs of infection, but not specifically C-19 - so the detection could be from some other viral flu/cold-like illness.

There was a TV program recently about a woman who could smell Parkinsons. She'd noticed it in her husband, and was 105% correct in a double-blind test of T-shirts, 20 from people diagnosed with Parkinsons, 20 without. She got them all right, including one undiagnosed case who subsequently proved to have the disease.

So I think it's entirely possible that a dog could smell covid-19 specifically.

GV27

5418 posts

Uber Geek

#2574089 25-Sep-2020 10:44

Sigh. Off to Queenstown this weekend. Masks out in public, not sure how we'll go with the restaurant we're booked into. Another place we were looking at apparently does takeaway as an option so I might take that up instead of an additional sit down meal I could possibly avoid, should it become an issue. Take your levels with you and all that.

wellygary

7375 posts

Uber Geek

#2574093 25-Sep-2020 10:53

GV27:

Sigh. Off to Queenstown this weekend. Masks out in public, not sure how we'll go with the restaurant we're booked into. Another place we were looking at apparently does takeaway as an option so I might take that up instead of an additional sit down meal I could possibly avoid, should it become an issue. Take your levels with you and all that.

Lets see if the promised contract tracing can meet the "gold standard" they set for themselves.

Its a pretty perfect test case...a single infection source ...

...with a 5-ish day average incubation period you are potentially looking at 3 ( maybe 4) steps from the infection on the 11th

if they can corral the contacts of those who met in Taupo they might be done by the end of next week ... if not it could be back to level 2 ( at a minimum)

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
76328 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2574107 25-Sep-2020 11:15

Tested two days ago (second time in exactly six months almost to the date), got a negative result 24 hours later.

Please support Geekzone by subscribing, or using one of our referral links: Dosh referral: 00001283 | Sharesies | Goodsync | Mighty Ape | Backblaze

freitasm on Keybase | My technology disclosure

GV27

5418 posts

Uber Geek

#2574200 25-Sep-2020 13:05

GV27:

Sigh. Off to Queenstown this weekend. Masks out in public, not sure how we'll go with the restaurant we're booked into. Another place we were looking at apparently does takeaway as an option so I might take that up instead of an additional sit down meal I could possibly avoid, should it become an issue. Take your levels with you and all that.

Strike that - looks like the weather is probably going to ground us and everyone else on the first week of school holidays 😅

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
76328 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2574218 25-Sep-2020 13:27

Press release:

Today there are two new cases of COVID-19 to report in New Zealand.

One is an imported case detected in a managed isolation facility and the other is a community case – a female in her late teens who was already self-isolating. This person is a household contact, epidemiologically linked to the Auckland August cluster bereavement sub-group.

The imported case is a man in his 40s who returned from Russia on a flight via Turkey and Malaysia on 19 September. He returned a positive result to day 3 testing and is now at the quarantine facility in Auckland.

There are 35 people isolating in the Auckland quarantine facility from the community, which includes 15 people who have tested positive for COVID-19 and their household contacts.

Three people are in hospital with COVID-19 – one each at Auckland City, Middlemore and North Shore hospitals. All three patients are in isolation on a general ward.

Since August 11, our contact tracing team has identified 4,053 close contacts of cases, of which 4,050 have been contacted and are self-isolating or have completed self-isolation. We are in the process of contacting the rest.

Our total number of active cases is 60; of those, 29 are imported cases in MIQ facilities, and 31 are community cases.

Our total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is 1,473.

Yesterday our laboratories processed 6,465 tests, bringing the total number of tests completed to date to 937,244.

An update on the three cases reported on 23 September

Public health services continue to contact trace, test and isolate close contacts of the three community cases reported this week.

As we have previously reported, these three people are part of the same family group – two had been in managed isolation in Christchurch and returned home on a chartered flight, while the third is a household contact.

There are now a total of 35 close contacts associated with these cases. Eight have returned negative test results and the remaining have been or are in the process of being tested. All are now self-isolating.

Public health services in the relevant regions have been in contact with businesses where individuals may have visited while infectious and will be issuing information to the public as appropriate.

The National Contact Tracing team will continue issuing exposure notices through the COVID Tracer App where appropriate.

Yesterday 15 ‘push’ notifications were issued via the app. This is significantly assisting contact tracing efforts.

Anyone receiving an app notification as having visited a place of interest should be vigilant of their health and get tested if they develop symptoms.

Please support Geekzone by subscribing, or using one of our referral links: Dosh referral: 00001283 | Sharesies | Goodsync | Mighty Ape | Backblaze

freitasm on Keybase | My technology disclosure

wellygary

7375 posts

Uber Geek

#2574249 25-Sep-2020 14:03

Again, more questions today that Health should be answering,

The positive Auckland cluster contact today was self isolating,...

How are they connected to the cluster??, are they related to the child who was tested positive, on the 13th, or the cases a day or two earlier,

IF so it would indicate being tested at Day 12/13 prior to ended isolation, presumably after testing negative at the initial testing....

debo

296 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2574307 25-Sep-2020 14:41

So, there were 3 people on the charter flight from Christchurch to Auckland that have returned positive tests. Why are people assuming that the first single case had it and gave it to the other two and not the other way around? Perhaps it was neither and there has been transmission within manage isolation and all three caught it there.

KrazyKid

1197 posts

Uber Geek

#2574323 25-Sep-2020 15:33

I think you will find they are not assuming that - and Genomic Testing could help tell us the order of infection?

Also pleased to hear the MoH saying the other day the MIQ could be the source of infection. Seems they are really not ruling anything out.
To me it seems equally if not more likely the original infection happened at the MIQ later in the stay. I do wonder if they will will be able to rule that option out.
Probably going to be hard to ever say.

wellygary

7375 posts

Uber Geek

#2574393 25-Sep-2020 16:07

KrazyKid:

I think you will find they are not assuming that - and Genomic Testing could help tell us the order of infection?

Also pleased to hear the MoH saying the other day the MIQ could be the source of infection. Seems they are really not ruling anything out.
To me it seems equally if not more likely the original infection happened at the MIQ later in the stay. I do wonder if they will will be able to rule that option out.
Probably going to be hard to ever say.

Yeah, I not overly convinced about the "long incubation" theory, More likely that the "original" ""man of the plane" on the plane was infected 1-2 days before his 14 day test

I.e , The original flight went via fiji, so the ultimate source may have gotten off there, but they could have infected a new "patient 0" on the plane who then tests negative on arrival (day 2/3) as they have yet to develop enough viral load (I've heard this is reasonably common)

they then infect the "man on the plane" at day 12, he tests negative before leaving and then develops symptoms when he gets back to Auckland...

The hotel worker in Auckland shows that transmission within MIQ is possible

rugrat

2941 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2574410 25-Sep-2020 17:16

The media keeps pushing it. I'm just posting this one as it makes it pretty clear from a statement in it, that people have practically no chance to get out early to see a loved one in person close to the end. Wonder how many new court cases the Lawyer in my last post has lined up now.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/09/two-returnees-in-isolation-at-pullman-hotel-lose-parents-as-exemptions-denied.html

And the statement that makes it pretty clear that the expectation people have to be let out early is not going to happen:

Head of MIQ facilities, Digby Webb, has said he is "the sole decision-maker" for exemption applications and he puts the team of 5 million first.

"That, therefore, means the needs of the individuals are not met in that instance… that means the sacrifices of one in this instance shouldn't affect hundreds of others," Webb said.

It's a sacrifice many returnees are forced to make, but not elite rugby players.

I'm not impressed if the Rugby elite rugby players are being treated differently. Maybe they will argue they have a safer plan for managing it, but I suspect there are big risks and individual trust in following the rules. Have seen stories where that trust is broken even by sports stars.

debo

296 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2574413 25-Sep-2020 17:21

wellygary:
KrazyKid:

I think you will find they are not assuming that - and Genomic Testing could help tell us the order of infection?

Also pleased to hear the MoH saying the other day the MIQ could be the source of infection. Seems they are really not ruling anything out.
To me it seems equally if not more likely the original infection happened at the MIQ later in the stay. I do wonder if they will will be able to rule that option out.
Probably going to be hard to ever say.

Yeah, I not overly convinced about the "long incubation" theory, More likely that the "original" ""man of the plane" on the plane was infected 1-2 days before his 14 day test

I.e , The original flight went via fiji, so the ultimate source may have gotten off there, but they could have infected a new "patient 0" on the plane who then tests negative on arrival (day 2/3) as they have yet to develop enough viral load (I've heard this is reasonably common)

they then infect the "man on the plane" at day 12, he tests negative before leaving and then develops symptoms when he gets back to Auckland...

The hotel worker in Auckland shows that transmission within MIQ is possible

6y;

There was a guy on The Pannel on RNZ today who has only just got out of managed isolation. He said that on 3 occasions that he came or almost came into interaction with other groups in isolation. One occurance was with a group that had suitcases with them that he assumed were new arrivals.
There appears to be huge holes in managed isolations that need to be plugged.

mattwnz

19374 posts

Uber Geek

#2574458 25-Sep-2020 18:57

wellygary:

KrazyKid:

I think you will find they are not assuming that - and Genomic Testing could help tell us the order of infection?

Also pleased to hear the MoH saying the other day the MIQ could be the source of infection. Seems they are really not ruling anything out.
To me it seems equally if not more likely the original infection happened at the MIQ later in the stay. I do wonder if they will will be able to rule that option out.
Probably going to be hard to ever say.

Yeah, I not overly convinced about the "long incubation" theory, More likely that the "original" ""man of the plane" on the plane was infected 1-2 days before his 14 day test

I.e , The original flight went via fiji, so the ultimate source may have gotten off there, but they could have infected a new "patient 0" on the plane who then tests negative on arrival (day 2/3) as they have yet to develop enough viral load (I've heard this is reasonably common)

they then infect the "man on the plane" at day 12, he tests negative before leaving and then develops symptoms when he gets back to Auckland...

The hotel worker in Auckland shows that transmission within MIQ is possible

I agree. If the test is on day 12, then there were 2 extra days that they could still test positive under a normal 14 incubation cycle. Not that the tests are that accurate anyway. One may have very very mild symptoymsn on day 14 and not realise it, and then it worsens over the next week. IMO we are putting too much faith in the testing during the MIQ period.

But if they are considered an outlier, and that is the narrative that the MOH are using for this case, then it is unlikely to be considered a hole in MIQ. That seems to be also what the media are treating as fact.

But I also wonder why they are considering this case as patient number zero with this new cluster. Surely anyone on that charter flight could be the source of this new cluster.?

This new charter plane cluster IMO is a big concern, and does show a flaw in the current processes , especially as it appears they could travel out of Auckland and to level 1 places, and not take their maximum group number restrictions from Auckland at the time, with them. We are trusting everyone to do the right thing and stick to these restrictions. We need belts and braces in place with our MIQ processes, as potentially this new cluster has the potential to cause billions of dollars of economic harm if it spreads.

Covid-19 cases met with large group in Taupō before testing positive

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122877864/covid19-cases-met-with-large-group-in-taup-before-testing-positive

Handle9

9633 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2574476 25-Sep-2020 20:11

rugrat:

The media keeps pushing it. I'm just posting this one as it makes it pretty clear from a statement in it, that people have practically no chance to get out early to see a loved one in person close to the end. Wonder how many new court cases the Lawyer in my last post has lined up now.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/09/two-returnees-in-isolation-at-pullman-hotel-lose-parents-as-exemptions-denied.html

And the statement that makes it pretty clear that the expectation people have to be let out early is not going to happen:

"

Head of MIQ facilities, Digby Webb, has said he is "the sole decision-maker" for exemption applications and he puts the team of 5 million first.

"That, therefore, means the needs of the individuals are not met in that instance… that means the sacrifices of one in this instance shouldn't affect hundreds of others," Webb said.

It's a sacrifice many returnees are forced to make, but not elite rugby players.

I'm not impressed if the Rugby elite rugby players are being treated differently. Maybe they will argue they have a safer plan for managing it, but I suspect there are big risks and individual trust in following the rules. Have seen stories where that trust is broken even by sports stars.

Statements like that, and the lack of explanation, ensure a steady stream of court cases.

If there isn't consideration given to each individuals case and circumstances then the MOH is very likely in breach of the law (again). If they can't demonstrate their decision making criteria then they aren't acting in good faith.

1 | ... | 1001 | 1002 | 1003 | 1004 | 1005 | 1006 | 1007 | 1008 | 1009 | 1010 | 1011 | ... | 2398