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Sideface
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  #2584358 14-Oct-2020 15:29
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The New York Times - Coronavirus Reinfections Are Real but Very, Very Rare

 

today

 


Reports of reinfection with the coronavirus evoke a nightmarish future: Repeat bouts of illness, impotent vaccines, unrelenting lockdowns - a pandemic without an end.

 

A case study published on Monday, about a 25-year-old man in Nevada, has stoked those fears anew. ...

 

But these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. ...

 

In most cases, a second bout with the virus produced milder symptoms or none at all. ...

 





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frankv
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  #2584369 14-Oct-2020 16:01
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Sideface:

 


More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. ...

 

In most cases, a second bout with the virus produced milder symptoms or none at all. ...

 

 

 

That's a very positive, if not wantonly optimistic, way of looking at it. Especially considering the clickbait headline. But...

 

Of the 38M infections, how many have had their genomes sequenced? i.e. how many of them could *possibly* have been confirmed as a reinfection? Maybe we're looking at a 4 in 1M or 4 in 100,000 reinfection rate?

 

It's a huge leap to go from "fewer than 5 cases" to "in most cases, ...". If the number of cases is less than 5, it must be 4 or maybe 3, since "most" implies it must be divisible into unequal groups. Most cases must then be 3 (or 2), in which case 25% (or 33%) of reinfections resulted in something worse than "milder symptoms".

 

Now, does "milder" here mean "milder than the first symptoms" (i.e. 25% or 33% had the same or worse symptoms the second time round), or is it just "milder than typical"?

 

Given the size of the dataset, they could have listed the cases with details of the first and second infections and symptoms.

 

 


 
 
 
 


mattwnz
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  #2584372 14-Oct-2020 16:11
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Sideface:

 

The New York Times - Coronavirus Reinfections Are Real but Very, Very Rare

 

today

 


Reports of reinfection with the coronavirus evoke a nightmarish future: Repeat bouts of illness, impotent vaccines, unrelenting lockdowns - a pandemic without an end.

 

A case study published on Monday, about a 25-year-old man in Nevada, has stoked those fears anew. ...

 

But these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. ...

 

In most cases, a second bout with the virus produced milder symptoms or none at all. ...

 

 

 

 

 

Guessing it will become like a cold, but with a higher chance of dying, especially as one gets older. eg, Many people will catch a cold at least one a year, sometimes twice. If that happens, I am guessing the average age of the population will decrease. But guessing treatment will get better, and possibility of a vaccine. It is interesting that politicians are almost saying a vaccine is a given, and within a year (or before the US election), but it isn't. If one ever does come out, it could also be many years away. Hopefully not, but possible.


kingdragonfly
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  #2584385 14-Oct-2020 16:47
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Perhaps in the long term, it'll remove some anti-vaxxers from the gene pool.

ezbee
358 posts

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  #2584469 14-Oct-2020 19:03
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Surely an urban legend, a 'B' grade movie script that did not make the grade ?

 

USA.

 

University warns about college students trying to contract COVID-19 to make money donating plasma with antibodies
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/520936-university-warns-about-college-students-trying-to-contract

""
Two potential plasma donation locations near the university are the Grifols Biomat USA Rexburg location and the BioLife Plasma Services, NPR reported. The first’s website says it gives donors $100 per visit and East Idaho News reported the latter provides $200 for each of the donor’s first two visits.
""


Oblivian
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  #2584478 14-Oct-2020 19:14
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You don't get paid, but NZBlood are always on the lookout for recovered patients of Shingles and so on for plasma to infuse oncology patients. 

 

https://www.nzblood.co.nz/assets/Give-Blood/PDFs/111I062.pdf 

 

It's plausible. But unsure if there would be the tested demand for C19 antibodies in a similar way at this time


DS248
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  #2585636 14-Oct-2020 23:13
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Sideface:

 

The New York Times - Coronavirus Reinfections Are Real but Very, Very Rare

 

today

 


Reports of reinfection with the coronavirus evoke a nightmarish future: Repeat bouts of illness, impotent vaccines, unrelenting lockdowns - a pandemic without an end.

 

A case study published on Monday, about a 25-year-old man in Nevada, has stoked those fears anew. ...

 

But these cases make the news precisely because they are rare, experts said: More than 38 million people worldwide have been infected with the coronavirus, and as of Monday, fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections. ...

 

In most cases, a second bout with the virus produced milder symptoms or none at all. ...

 

 

 

 

 

Puzzled by the "In most cases, a second bout ...milder symptoms, or none at all" bit, especially since they say "fewer than five of those cases have been confirmed by scientists to be reinfections". 

 

"Most" out of a sample of five?!   Even if 3/5 had been milder, that would be very weak evidence for claiming that "In most cases, a second bout with the virus produced milder symptoms or none at all

 

 

 

I have seen details for at least nine confirmed reinfection cases

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/13/europe/covid-19-dutch-woman-reinfection-death-intl/index.html

 

  •  

    • Dutch woman died after catching Covid-19 the second time.
    • 25 year old US man "with no underlying health conditions ... suffered a more severe episode the second time."
      (required "ongoing oxygen support in hospital the second time" - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext)
    • 33-year-old man in Hong Kong asymptomatic the second time (first reported case of a person confirmed to have caught the virus twice).

Also a female in Belgium (milder symptoms second time) and male in Ecuador (more severe symptoms) per https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext and https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3686174

 

At least four cases in India with "with varying degrees of increased clinical severity" during the second infection  - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3688220. (The Lancet, preprint, 21 Sept.)

 

Plus a case in the Netherlands I do not have details for (not that I looked hard).

 

That is already seven out of nine having more severe symptoms the second time.  And in some cases the second, significantly more severe.

 

 

 

According to a Guardian article (6 Oct), around two dozen cases have been reported so the research for the NY Times article seems to have been on the light side (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/flurry-of-coronavirus-reinfections-leaves-scientists-puzzled)


 
 
 
 


DS248
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  #2586081 15-Oct-2020 22:44
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Recent paper on NZ Covid-19 response in The Lancet (13 Oct) + one related comment

 

 

 

Article: Jefferies et al (2020), COVID-19 in New Zealand and the impact of the national response - a descriptive epidemiological study, The Lancet, Online First (12 pp.)
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2468-2667%2820%2930225-5

 

Methods. We did a descriptive epidemiological study of all laboratory-confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 and all patients tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New Zealand from Feb 2 to May 13, 2020, after which time community transmission ceased. We extracted data from the national notifiable diseases database and the national SARS-CoV-2 test results repository. Demographic features and disease outcomes, transmission patterns (source of infection, outbreaks, household transmission), time-to-event intervals, and testing coverage were described over five phases of the response, capturing different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Risk factors for severe outcomes (hospitalisation or death) were examined with multivariable logistic regression and time-to-event intervals were analysed by fitting parametric distributions using maximum likelihood estimation.

 

One intriguing finding; by the end of L4 lockdown "... the average isolation intervals [reduced] from 7·2 days (6·3 to 8·2) to −2·7 days (−4·7 to −0·8) days, where negative days represent isolation before illness onset"

 

Seems 'surprising'?  Or was it just that people were isolated by virtue of the lockdown ...?

 

 

 

Comment: Robert A (2020), Lessons from New Zealand's COVID-19 outbreak response, The Lancet, 13 Oct
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2468-2667%2820%2930225-5

 

One point made by Robert worth noting (my bold)

 

".. the authors report only 25 asymptomatic infections in the dataset, which corresponds to 1·7% of all cases. This is much lower than the commonly reported proportion of asymptomatic infections in COVID-19 outbreaks, which varies between 20% and 40%. This finding suggests that many asymptomatic individuals remained undetected despite targeted testing of groups less likely to show symptoms in the late phases of New Zealand’s epidemic. Comparing setting-specific serosurveys and surveillance data could reveal the profile of infections that New Zealand’s surveillance system struggled to identify, thus highlighting an area for improvement in the infection detection process. This could also indicate whether the detection of asymptomatic infections should be a priority, as recent genomic epidemiology studies suggest many introductions did not result in transmission chains, which might be linked to a lower infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals."

 

 


KrazyKid
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  #2586133 16-Oct-2020 08:03
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An interesting infographic showing cumulative cases per million by state in the USA over time.
It really highlights the southern states and how they haven't managed the epidemic in the last few months. Because it's election season in the USA the Republican lead states are marked with red bars and the Democratic states are blue.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4004305/

GV27
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  #2586266 16-Oct-2020 13:14
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Weak positive in Wellington; low risk to the general public, apparently, expected to be historic. 


wellygary
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  #2586275 16-Oct-2020 13:37
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GV27:

 

Weak positive in Wellington; low risk to the general public, apparently, expected to be historic. 

 

 

The skinny from MoH is below...

 

Two negative tests through MIQ ( presumably totally asymptomatic) then a weak positive when they felt unwell afterward, and then a subsequent negative test (presumably once they had recovered from the slight cold etc)..

 

Doesn't sound overly concerning

 

 

This individual is a recent returnee from the United States and completed their full 14 days in a MIQ facility in September. They were asymptomatic during their time in MIQ and returned two negative tests during this time. They were released from MIQ on September 21. 

 

After becoming unwell this week, they sought medical care. They were subsequently tested for COVID-19, which has returned a weak positive result, indicating an old infection. We have undertaken further testing today to fully confirm this is a historic infection. 

 

A PCR test conducted today has returned a negative result. This follow-up testing result strongly suggests that this is a historical infection. We are awaiting further results from other tests including serology. 

 

We are taking precautionary measures as we always do in these instances and the individual has been transferred to an MIQ facility in Wellington. 

 

As we have seen with other cases, individuals can return weak positive tests if they have been infected earlier in the year. This case follows a typical pattern of what we have seen in other historical cases. 

 

These cases can emerge after the person has a respiratory illness that is not COVID-19, such as a cold or influenza. Residual remnants of the virus can be picked up through swabbing, with inflammation often bringing forward virus particles that were not previously picked up.

 


GV27
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  #2586277 16-Oct-2020 13:39
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That's a relief - last thing we need is a positive outbreak in Wellington during a general election with every woman and her dog and flying in and out of Wellington, kissing hands and shaking babies at every step of the way. 


ezbee
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  #2586278 16-Oct-2020 13:44
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As we get to some sort of new normality, I look at overseas news and find myself felling somewhat lucky, and thankful to our community.
Election has muted some of the overseas news, but seems things are just getting worse.

 

Well at least we have been spared this kind of carry on as Police in France investigate failures in French Covid response.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/428461/covid-19-french-police-raid-ministers-homes-in-pandemic-inquiry

""
Health Minister Olivier Véran and the director of the national health agency, Jérôme Salomon, are among those whose properties were searched on Thursday.

 

The raids came after a court launched an inquiry earlier this year into the government's handling of the pandemic.
""
In July, the court launched the inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic after members of the public, including doctors and relatives of victims, alleged that it had been criminally negligent in its response to Covid-19.
""
A further 22,951 cases of Covid-19 were confirmed on Wednesday. "We have to act. We need to put a brake on the spread of the virus," French president Emmanuel Macron said in a television address.

 

The president added that this wave of Covid-19 was different to the outbreak in the spring, because the virus had spread to all parts of France.
""


wellygary
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  #2586284 16-Oct-2020 13:56
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ezbee:

 

As we get to some sort of new normality, I look at overseas news and find myself felling somewhat lucky, and thankful to our community.
Election has muted some of the overseas news, but seems things are just getting worse.

 

Well at least we have been spared this kind of carry on as Police in France investigate failures in French Covid response.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/428461/covid-19-french-police-raid-ministers-homes-in-pandemic-inquiry

""
Health Minister Olivier Véran and the director of the national health agency, Jérôme Salomon, are among those whose properties were searched on Thursday.

 

The raids came after a court launched an inquiry earlier this year into the government's handling of the pandemic.
""
In July, the court launched the inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic after members of the public, including doctors and relatives of victims, alleged that it had been criminally negligent in its response to Covid-19.
""
A further 22,951 cases of Covid-19 were confirmed on Wednesday. "We have to act. We need to put a brake on the spread of the virus," French president Emmanuel Macron said in a television address.

 

The president added that this wave of Covid-19 was different to the outbreak in the spring, because the virus had spread to all parts of France.
""

 

 

Its not just France, the growing numbers across Europe are truly frightening... They are making the March outbreak look like a fore ripple...

 

BUT... what is really interesting is that deaths have not yet begun to spike.... the question is will they follow up, or is this wave different (more young people?), or simply treatment is becoming better.....

 

The Death/cases rates in March/April were really high , this time it appears potentially different

 

 


kingdragonfly
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  #2586293 16-Oct-2020 14:07
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Washington Post: The US state of Vermont wants tourism back, safely. But will travelers play along?

...Vermont has the lowest per-capita cases of any U.S. state.

...For a state whose economy relies on tourist spending, that success in slowing the spread of the virus is an opportunity — a chance to recover income lost over the spring and summer.

...It’s a welcome mat with a caveat: a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for most visitors, the most stringent travel restriction in the continental United States. Only residents of counties in the Northeast with fewer than 400 active coronavirus cases per million may visit the state without quarantining, and only if they travel in a private vehicle. (No flying commercial.)

While it’s possible to shortcut the quarantine by taking a test after seven days, it presents a substantial hurdle if you don’t have a few weeks of vacation to spare.

...When visitors check in at hotels and other lodging, they must sign a certificate of compliance stating that they have followed the rules. Even among the trickle of visitors outside Cold Hollow Cider Mill, though, adherence was patchy. In fact, only two travelers I met said they had quarantined.

Many more admitted they had come from out of state without regard to the restrictions. Anxious to travel once again, they came to Vermont from as far as Texas, Utah and Michigan, arriving by plane or car, then heading straight to sightseeing. Most travelers cited Vermont’s low number of cases as an important draw, saying the state’s success in containing the virus gave them ease of mind while vacationing.

Approaches vary among New England states. For example, Maine’s quarantine regulations offer exemptions for more places than Vermont does, but the state has a well-publicized sting: Noncompliance can bring a possible six-month jail sentence and a $1,000 fine. While penalties are possible in Vermont, too, the state’s messaging has instead leaned on education.

But while numbers remain low, the state’s health authorities see safe travel policies as key to controlling the spread of the coronavirus. “Travel is one of the biggest susceptibility points any state has, including Vermont,” said Tracy Dolan, deputy commissioner of Vermont’s Department of Health. Vermont’s success in fighting the virus is the result of early stay-at-home orders, clear communication and science-informed policies, she said. But while daily case counts are carefully tracked on her department’s website, travelers’ compliance with the new rules is an unknown.

“We have no metrics on who’s following our quarantine guidance,” she said. And a perceived lack of compliance with, or ignorance of, travel regulations worries some in the hospitality industry, who are balancing their own families’ safety with the need to stay afloat through the pandemic...

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