2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2599550 7-Nov-2020 16:28

DS248:
US +132,540 cases yesterday on Worldometers; yet another record

The elections are like pouring accelerant to the contagion

ezbee

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#2599582 7-Nov-2020 18:14

USA pain will look to accelerate for some time as the large gatherings of unmasked shouties continues.

A perfect storm.

The graphs 'turning the corner' and accelerating.

We may see that flights in from USA yield more cases and carry much more risk.

Hopefully the cash strapped DHBs will be whipped into action to provide stronger protection for our border workers by recent events.

mattwnz

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#2599587 7-Nov-2020 18:34

tdgeek:

And:

The person had been swabbed on Tuesday as part of the routine testing for staff in the facility. That test came back negative the next day.

However, they were tested again on Thursday after developing symptoms. That time the test was positive for Covid-19.

The case was reported to the ministry on Friday afternoon.

Just goes to show how we can't rely on testing at a specific point in time, as to showing if someone is infected or not.

We just need one of these cases to attend a mass gathering event like a wedding, which are going to be more and more common in the coming months. It is a little like playing Russian Roulette, and is what Prof Skegg seems concerned about, due to the high frequency of these incursions that have been occurring in recent months. It seems Australia Quarantining systems seem more watertight than NZs, after their initial problem leading to the Victoria lockdown, and I haven't seen any reports of leaks since then from other states

tdgeek

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#2599598 7-Nov-2020 18:55

mattwnz:

Just goes to show how we can't rely on testing at a specific point in time, as to showing if someone is infected or not.

We just need one of these cases to attend a mass gathering event like a wedding, which are going to be more and more common in the coming months. It is a little like playing Russian Roulette, and is what Prof Skegg seems concerned about, due to the high frequency of these incursions that have been occurring in recent months. It seems Australia Quarantining systems seem more watertight than NZs, after their initial problem leading to the Victoria lockdown, and I haven't seen any reports of leaks since then from other states

So they are watertight??

Testing is not 100%, thats not a NZ problem. I guess we can quarantine for 28 days? If you are playing Russian Roulette over 70,000 gambles you will well exceed what we have had.I get you want perfection, 100% accurate testing, that doesn't exist.

DS248

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#2599669 7-Nov-2020 23:24

DS248: US +132,540 cases yesterday on Worldometers; yet another record

Amazing how many are positive about US efforts to contain the coronavirus.

eg. from exit polls, 50% of those surveyed in Georgia consider US efforts to contain the virus are going well.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia

(also from the exit polls, how polarised the US population is by race)

Batman

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#2599670 7-Nov-2020 23:45

Batman:

Fred99:

Denmark are going to cull 17 million minks infected with covid.

According to reports, in some it's mutated and the mutated strain has infected (at least) 12 people.

The mutated strain apparently does not respond strongly to C19 antibodies, so raises the question about effectiveness of future C-19 vaccines.

https://www.ft.com/content/cdca7483-4192-4e1f-a2f7-8286c9f255dc

It's actually not the culling that worries me, it's the non culling of animals in other parts of the world for whatever reason, well I better try not to think too much ... oh dear

here we go https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-downplays-coronavirus-mink-mutation-risk-after-denmark-orders-massive-cull/ar-BB1aLdNm

mattwnz

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#2599677 8-Nov-2020 01:25

Batman:

Batman:

It's actually not the culling that worries me, it's the non culling of animals in other parts of the world for whatever reason, well I better try not to think too much ... oh dear

here we go https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/who-downplays-coronavirus-mink-mutation-risk-after-denmark-orders-massive-cull/ar-BB1aLdNm

Not sure I have too much faith in what the WHO says in light of what has happened to date. They also said countries shouldn't do lockdowns, yet if NZ didn't do it's very strict lockdown to eliminate the virus from teh community, we would likely be going in and out of lockdowns like Europe to slow it down. Liekwsie they said in March that it doesn't help to restrict movement between countries when dealing with the virus, which is something NZ has also done to help with elimination.

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Tinkerisk

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#2599680 8-Nov-2020 04:54

Good news (in general):

Logistics and distribution pre-planning for vaccination in Germany has started today!

(This is not an easy task for 89 Mill. people 'cause near everybody feels obliged to be first in the row). It will be organized by the Government and Armed Forces - the price right will be VERY low - if not for free to keep the big players away. So nobody will get rich by trade. Nothing except development and production costs need to be covered which is only fair.

:-)

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Tinkerisk

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#2599681 8-Nov-2020 05:07

Batman:

The mutated strain apparently does not respond strongly to C19 antibodies, so raises the question about effectiveness of future C-19 vaccines.

Yes but the mutation is not nearly as aggressive as C-19 itself. But I must admit, it's a mutation.

tdgeek

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#2599719 8-Nov-2020 08:24

mattwnz:

Not sure I have too much faith in what the WHO says in light of what has happened to date. They also said countries shouldn't do lockdowns, yet if NZ didn't do it's very strict lockdown to eliminate the virus from teh community, we would likely be going in and out of lockdowns like Europe to slow it down. Liekwsie they said in March that it doesn't help to restrict movement between countries when dealing with the virus, which is something NZ has also done to help with elimination.

I get tired of hearing that. WHO does not say don't do lockdowns. They say lockdowns are not the mid and long term strategy. They should be short and sharp to stay inside the capability of the health system if it takes off. They can't be used for general management of Covid. Masks, testing, tracing are the keys. Is locking down for 6 months, or for 2 months 4 times a year for years the solution? No.

Lets move past the blame game

ezbee

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#2599907 8-Nov-2020 13:49

Darn, we will get cases with border workers and hopefully we can find areas to tighten up, and improve.

Two Defence Force staff at centre of latest community outbreak
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/430126/covid-19-two-defence-force-staff-at-centre-of-latest-community-outbreak

""
"Case B flew from Auckland to Wellington on Thursday evening (5 November) on Air New Zealand flight NZ 457 and sat in row 23.
Those passengers sitting two seats in all directions are being contacted and asked to get tested and self-isolate until 19 November.

"As an added precaution, we are also asking the households of these flight close contacts to isolate until advised that their flight close contact has had a negative test. These households are regarded as second-order contacts."
""

tdgeek

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#2599913 8-Nov-2020 14:01

ezbee:

Darn, we will get cases with border workers and hopefully we can find areas to tighten up, and improve.

Two Defence Force staff at centre of latest community outbreak
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/430126/covid-19-two-defence-force-staff-at-centre-of-latest-community-outbreak

""
"Case B flew from Auckland to Wellington on Thursday evening (5 November) on Air New Zealand flight NZ 457 and sat in row 23.
Those passengers sitting two seats in all directions are being contacted and asked to get tested and self-isolate until 19 November.

"As an added precaution, we are also asking the households of these flight close contacts to isolate until advised that their flight close contact has had a negative test. These households are regarded as second-order contacts."
""

Yep, its a pity. But where you expose people, such as border workers, cleaners, transporters, logistics, you can't avoid that risk, unless you remove the risk by keeping everyone away from MIQ detainees. Same as health workers in hospitals, you can never remove the risk.

KrazyKid

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#2599916 8-Nov-2020 14:03

The way I read the article the defense force worker was a close contact of the nurse who was infected at jet park.

It's concerning that hotels keep thinking up cases in the staff.
Would hope they continue to improve processes.

wellygary

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#2599976 8-Nov-2020 16:08

KrazyKid: The way I read the article the defense force worker was a close contact of the nurse who was infected at jet park.

It's concerning that hotels keep thinking up cases in the staff.
Would hope they continue to improve processes.

They are now saying that the original "community case" at the Jet Park was not a nurse, but a Defence worker

"Neither of these cases are health workers. Both are Defence Force employees"

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/6-new-cases-covid-19-6

mattwnz

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#2599998 8-Nov-2020 16:38

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Not sure I have too much faith in what the WHO says in light of what has happened to date. They also said countries shouldn't do lockdowns, yet if NZ didn't do it's very strict lockdown to eliminate the virus from teh community, we would likely be going in and out of lockdowns like Europe to slow it down. Liekwsie they said in March that it doesn't help to restrict movement between countries when dealing with the virus, which is something NZ has also done to help with elimination.

I get tired of hearing that. WHO does not say don't do lockdowns. They say lockdowns are not the mid and long term strategy. They should be short and sharp to stay inside the capability of the health system if it takes off. They can't be used for general management of Covid. Masks, testing, tracing are the keys. Is locking down for 6 months, or for 2 months 4 times a year for years the solution? No.

Lets move past the blame game

Very few countries have contact tracing up to the standard needed though and the WHO know this. Even NZs one relies on people to scan and record their route, and many aren't because there is no legal requirement to. Then the MOH complains because hardly anyone scanned into a bar, but they already knew this before.

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