2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 1047 | 1048 | 1049 | 1050 | 1051 | 1052 | 1053 | 1054 | 1055 | 1056 | 1057 | ... | 2421

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2600774 10-Nov-2020 08:08

Batman:

some details about operation warp speed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/the-us-has-already-invested-billions-on-potential-coronavirus-vaccines-heres-where-the-deals-stand.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/08/08/feds-spending-more-than-9-billion-covid-19-vaccine-candidates/5575206002/

This is probably better:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed

and this: https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html

OWS didn't fund Pfizer / BioNTech. They funded 8 other companies.

Mark Esper was co-leading OWS. Trump fired him about an hour ago.

Scott3

3945 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2600786 10-Nov-2020 08:37

Fred99:

Pfizer's vaccine seems to work. ~90% efficacy in phase 3 trials.

Vaccine is two shots, administered three weeks apart.

It needs to be stored and transported at -70 deg C. This is a problem.

Pfizer claim they could have 1.3 billion doses ready by mid 2021. (I don't know if that means 2 shots for 1.3 billion people - probably not).

Mike Pence, the lame duck Vice President of the US, has boldly claimed personal victory for his and the lame duck President's "Operation Warp Speed". Pfizer have corrected him by stating that they weren't part of Operation Warp Speed and took no funding from the US - because they wanted to maintain independence in their development program.

Hopefully other vaccine candidates that are administered as single shot and can be stored/distributed more easily - at normal refrigeration temperatures - will be effective. We'll know about those before Pfizer's vaccine is available.

Clearly how the vaccine is rolled out is going to get political. It would be extremely dumb to "take down safeguards against infection" too early and open everything up when free availability of the vaccine is months or even years away, but I'm reasonably sure that what 's going to happen.

This is big news.

90% is not good enough to replace managed isolation at our border.

However it is good enough to give heard immunity if we inoculate the community. Emerging infectious diseases puts Covid-19's r0 at 5.7 Link

My calculations show that we would need to vaccinate 92% of the community to get herd immunity. Challenging, but viable over time.

Prior to getting full herd immunity we could vaccinating the most at risk (Frount line workers, elderly, pre-existing respiratory conditions) could drop the morality rate a lot. Part community vaccination could also be combined with the likes of distance requirements, masks etc to bring the R0 down to a level below one.

Will be an big call to decide at what percentage community immunity we re-open the border.

Hopefully further testing finds a storage temperature warmer than -70C is acceptable. This parameter has been known for some time and the CDC is telling states to hold off purchasing ultra cold freezers, in the hope that they are not required. However ultra cold freezers area already a hot commodity.

If ultra cold freezers are required, it is likely that vaccines will need to be administered from a central location in each city, rather from your local GP. There simply won't be enough of these to put one in each GP practice.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2600800 10-Nov-2020 09:12

Scott3:

This is big news.

90% is not good enough to replace managed isolation at our border.

However it is good enough to give heard immunity if we inoculate the community. Emerging infectious diseases puts Covid-19's r0 at 5.7 Link

"Herd immunity" is only possible if duration/efficacy of protection from disease is longer than practical ability to administer the vaccine at regular enough intervals (and that it's safe to do so) if needed.

That's not going to be known for some time. "Undetermined durability" Anyway, hopefully long before that's known, there will be good enough results from other candidate vaccines that use a single dose, and those vaccines can be stored at near room temp / normal refrigeration.

wellygary

8259 posts

Uber Geek

#2600801 10-Nov-2020 09:12

Scott3:

This is big news.

The big question is can it also form part of a treatment regime.....

Having a vaccine that can be administered in Hospital that will reduce serious symptoms/the death rate would be a huge step forward...

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2600820 10-Nov-2020 09:30

wellygary:

Scott3:

This is big news.

The big question is can it also form part of a treatment regime.....

Having a vaccine that can be administered in Hospital that will reduce serious symptoms/the death rate would be a huge step forward...

The 30,000 trial participants were screened - only those who hadn't been infected were in the trial.

But yeah.

Also, the apparent high efficacy also might reduce reluctance (for valid medical ethic reasons) to conduct challenge trials - it would be a much lower risk to volunteers.

freitasm

BDFL - Memuneh
79140 posts

Uber Geek

Administrator

ID Verified

Trusted

Geekzone

Lifetime subscriber

#2600853 10-Nov-2020 10:04

Press release:

News today from Pfizer and BioNTech that they have had promising results from COVID-19 clinical trials of a vaccine is encouraging, Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods said.

In October, the Government signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand.

“As part of the agreement, vaccine delivery to New Zealand could be as early as the first quarter of 2021. Provided the vaccine is approved for use in New Zealand by Medsafe, it is possible that some doses will be available to us in the first part of 2021,” Megan Woods said.

“Medsafe is working to optimise its processes so that any promising vaccines will be fully assessed as quickly as possible against the same criteria used for all other medicines that enter New Zealand.

“Pfizer and BioNTech will keep us up to date as to when data will be available for Medsafe to begin its evaluation process,” Megan Woods said.

Megan Woods said the COVID-19 Vaccine Strategy Taskforce, led by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, is currently negotiating with other pharmaceutical companies, and further announcements are expected in November.

“The agreement with Pfizer and BioNTech is one of a number of negotiations underway as part of our portfolio approach, and good progress is being made in relation to other purchasing negotiations. The additional agreements will ensure that once the portfolio is completed, we will have sufficient COVID-19 vaccines for the whole population,” Megan Woods said.

The Ministry of Health is developing a sequencing framework to guide the rollout of the vaccines as they become available.

The Ministry of Health is preparing for a range of vaccine scenarios and will finalise the expected vaccination approach once the features of a vaccine and the supply that will initially be available are known. However, three broad groups are being considered:

· Those at risk of spreading COVID-19
· Those at risk of contracting COVID-19
· Those at risk of increased morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19.

“Ensuring equity of outcomes is a key measure of success, including protection for Māori, Pacific peoples and our most vulnerable population groups, such as older people, disabled people, health workers, essential workers and border staff. The Government has set aside $66.3 million for medical supplies and infrastructure to ensure New Zealand is ready to launch a COVID-19 Immunisation Programme as soon as we have a safe and effective vaccine,” Megan Woods said.

Zepanda66

533 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2600856 10-Nov-2020 10:09

Fred99:

Pfizer's vaccine seems to work. ~90% efficacy in phase 3 trials.

Vaccine is two shots, administered three weeks apart.

It needs to be stored and transported at -70 deg C. This is a problem.

Pfizer claim they could have 1.3 billion doses ready by mid 2021. (I don't know if that means 2 shots for 1.3 billion people - probably not).

Mike Pence, the lame duck Vice President of the US, has boldly claimed personal victory for his and the lame duck President's "Operation Warp Speed". Pfizer have corrected him by stating that they weren't part of Operation Warp Speed and took no funding from the US - because they wanted to maintain independence in their development program.

Hopefully other vaccine candidates that are administered as single shot and can be stored/distributed more easily - at normal refrigeration temperatures - will be effective. We'll know about those before Pfizer's vaccine is available.

Clearly how the vaccine is rolled out is going to get political. It would be extremely dumb to "take down safeguards against infection" too early and open everything up when free availability of the vaccine is months or even years away, but I'm reasonably sure that what 's going to happen.

That is amazing news. Its a small thing. But the thing I miss most about pre-covid life is being able to go the movies without fear of getting sick and being stuck with life long health complications. Going to the movies was my escape from reality. 2020 took that from me :(. This year sucked so bad. Bring on the vaccine!

http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png

Sharesies kids

Free kids accounts - trade shares and funds (NZ, US) with Sharesies (affiliate link).

1101

3121 posts

Uber Geek

#2600863 10-Nov-2020 10:16

Scott3:

My calculations show that we would need to vaccinate 92% of the community to get herd immunity. Challenging, but viable over time.

You'll never get anywhere near that % in NZ.
Look at recent NZ measles vax issues , it just wont happen.

Then theres the issue with covid vax may only last 4-6 months (we dont know) . So if it lasts only 6 months , we'll never be able to keep the population
topped up with a refresh vax before the 6 months is up : for several reasons incl shortages of the vax .

NZ will be well down on the list of countries that have priority to get the vax , again for several reasons . Other countries will pay more , countries where its made for get priority , countries
in desperate need will(should) get it before us.
NZ being almost covid free will(should) be one of the last countries to get access the vax , Id assume . So add another year before we get it .

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2600880 10-Nov-2020 10:35

1101:

Scott3:

My calculations show that we would need to vaccinate 92% of the community to get herd immunity. Challenging, but viable over time.

You'll never get anywhere near that % in NZ.
Look at recent NZ measles vax issues , it just wont happen.

Then theres the issue with covid vax may only last 4-6 months (we dont know) . So if it lasts only 6 months , we'll never be able to keep the population
topped up with a refresh vax before the 6 months is up : for several reasons incl shortages of the vax .

NZ will be well down on the list of countries that have priority to get the vax , again for several reasons . Other countries will pay more , countries where its made for get priority , countries
in desperate need will(should) get it before us.
NZ being almost covid free will(should) be one of the last countries to get access the vax , Id assume . So add another year before we get it .

Read above post https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=265423&page_no=1052#2600853

tdgeek

29641 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2600882 10-Nov-2020 10:38

Can we not get licensed to manufacture it here? Plus, given the likely virus future, it might pay to become a bit more self sufficient manufacture-wise, same applies to many countries

Zepanda66

533 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2600889 10-Nov-2020 10:50

1101:

Scott3:

My calculations show that we would need to vaccinate 92% of the community to get herd immunity. Challenging, but viable over time.

You'll never get anywhere near that % in NZ.
Look at recent NZ measles vax issues , it just wont happen.

Then theres the issue with covid vax may only last 4-6 months (we dont know) . So if it lasts only 6 months , we'll never be able to keep the population
topped up with a refresh vax before the 6 months is up : for several reasons incl shortages of the vax .

NZ will be well down on the list of countries that have priority to get the vax , again for several reasons . Other countries will pay more , countries where its made for get priority , countries
in desperate need will(should) get it before us.
NZ being almost covid free will(should) be one of the last countries to get access the vax , Id assume . So add another year before we get it .

Tbh we don't even need herd immunity in NZ. As long as other countries get herd immunity through vaccination well be fine.

http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png

KrazyKid

1238 posts

Uber Geek

#2600892 10-Nov-2020 10:52

Has anyone else noticed this was announced days after the election.
Pretty sure the team a Pfizer don't like Trump (or at best trying to remain out of US politics).

Zepanda66

533 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2600895 10-Nov-2020 10:54

KrazyKid:

Has anyone else noticed this was announced days after the election.
Pretty sure the team a Pfizer don't like Trump (or at best trying to remain out of US politics).

Its well known that Pfizer have been trying to distance themselves from the trump administration. They also waited till after the election to announce the results on purpose as they didn't want it to get political which is a good move. Otherwise many people wouldn't have trusted the results.

http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png

kingdragonfly

11085 posts

Uber Geek

Subscriber

#2601022 10-Nov-2020 13:21

Washington Post: The vital fine print on the new coronavirus vaccine

...These results are indeed preliminary — all we, the public, have so far is a news release. The data will need to be scrutinized by the Food and Drug Administration, and more data collected, before we know for sure how good this is. Even if this vaccine confers strong immunity, we can’t yet know how long it will last. Nor are any clinical trials ever big enough to detect really rare, one-in-a-million, side effects.

All that said, if the early data pans out, this is very, very good news. The side effect profile looks pretty minimal, and its efficacy is fantastic. The FDA’s minimum target for a covid-19 vaccine was 50 percent efficacy at preventing infection — about what you get from a decent flu vaccine. At 90 percent, you’re closer to the measles vaccine: something that can, with mass inoculation, effectively eliminate the disease in the population.

Keep in mind, however, that mass inoculation will be a massive headache. ... Once we have an effective vaccine, we’d ideally want to inoculate most of the population in short order. That will be particularly challenging with this vaccine, which needs to be stored at minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. You can’t just pop this one in the fridge.

... this is not just good news for Pfizer, but for the other vaccine makers and candidates as well, since all of them are targeting the same viral spike protein that helps it enter your cells. This suggests that approach can work — if we give it time to bear fruit.

The delay between announcement, approval and wide vaccine availability will be hard to wait out. Should a vaccine be approved, but remain in limited supply, it will taunt us as we settle into the darkest days of winter with our masks, our hand sanitizer and what’s left of our sanity. People will be tempted to return to normal early.

...Don’t give in to that temptation. If you take only one thing away from this column, I want you to remember this: The expected value of covid-19 prevention has never been higher. The argument that all the precautions were unsustainable, so we might as well just all get it now, were unfortunately persuasive if a vaccine was five years away. If it’s five or six months away, however, it’s worth staying the course, or maybe even increasing your vigilance a little, to avoid a substantial risk of death or lifetime disability.
...

wellygary

8259 posts

Uber Geek

#2601068 10-Nov-2020 15:08

Seems the mink Cull is now off, But IMHO Irrespective of the degree of any mutation, Simply having a potential COVID reservoir of 17 million minks in your country doesn't sound like a good idea to me...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/09/denmark-drops-plans-for-mass-mink-cull-after-covid-mutation-fears

1 | ... | 1047 | 1048 | 1049 | 1050 | 1051 | 1052 | 1053 | 1054 | 1055 | 1056 | 1057 | ... | 2421