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Ultimate Geek

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  #2435224 9-Mar-2020 17:16
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frednz:

 

I think this thread should be renamed "Let's frighten the hell out of each other". You know, part of the fight against this virus is a mental one, and some people who read this thread regularly will start suffering unnecessary anxiety, which can reduce your resistance and just make things worse for yourself.

 

If just occasionally, people could write more reassuring posts which explain how NZ's response to this virus is planned to help us all, this would be good. I know some people who are going around as if NZ is already overrun with the virus, when most places don't have any recorded cases at all. They won't go to their normal group meetings or sports events and are flat out cancelling all NZ travel plans. Look, it's too early to do that yet (IMHO)!

 

Sure, it's good to be prepared, but some better perspectives and less "frightening" posts about what's happening overseas might help some people to cope better with this situation.

 

 

Fair enough. I feel I am / was a major contributor to this. (My post where I estimated the number of days to our ICU capacity is overwhelmed based on crude offshore data springs to mind).

I'm a technical person. Would much rather be accurately informed, than be told warm fuzzies. Generally my comment's have leaned towards to the worst case end of the possiable outcomes as the best case outcome doesn't justify too much concern.

The way I see it:

 

Best case: Sporadic cases continue as per the situation now. Aggressive contract tracing minimizes domestic spread. Hospital's remain below capacity for isolation rooms & ICU beds. Situation remains this way until a vaccine becomes available in 18 months. Possible scientific breakthrough on screening or treatment of covid-19. Supply issue of foreign sourced things like paracetamol, light-switches and vacuum cleaners. Significant economic impact due to global tourism downturn, and reduced demand for out exports such as logs.

 

Worst Case: Wide spread outbreak in NZ. Hospital system overloaded, lots of fatalities, china style lock-downs to control pathogen, massive economic impact.

 


Main positive point - This is not a black swan event. Even if it gets fully out of hand, well over 95% of the population will survive. Critical services (power, water, sewage, food supply chain) are likely to remain online even in worst possible situation.

 

Positive points for NZ:

 

  • Low population density & Public transport use compared to Asia & Europe
  • We produce a lot of food so even with international supply chain issues we will be able to eat.
  • We have OK workers rights, and universal access to healthcare, so people are less likely to hide cases and go to work sick relative to the USA.
  • We have a good healthcare system.
  • We are a fairly rich country, so will be able to afford vaccines and treatment's when they become available even if fairly expensive.
  • Other geographic areas are far harder hit than NZ, hence we can take learning from the rest of the word.
  • Places like China and Singapore (based on their data) have proven that it is possible via aggressive measures (extremely aggressive in china's case) to slow / stop the pathogen.

Negative points

 

  • NZ doesn't have onshore PPE manufacturing like china.
  • Relatively low number ICU beds per capita in NZ
  • Democratic government & election year, may mean that our government is unwilling to implement the aggressive control measures of China & Singapore.
  • So far we don't seem to be taking this seriously as a country.
  • Possible peak of covid-19 coming in seasonal flu season when our hosptals are typically overloaded anyway.

International perspective

 

  • China official numbers make it look like they have covid-19 somewhat under control.
  • Situation fully out of hand in Iran. Most of the world didn't pick up on this until it was to late.
  • Situation getting out of hand in europe in a big way. Health system in Italy overloaded. growing case numbers in France and germanay.
  • USA is showing early warning signs of being the next iran (high death to confirmed case ratio etc)

 

 

Hopefully we can balance complacency and panic.


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  #2435231 9-Mar-2020 17:24
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"Jealous Coronavirus" music video

Vietnamese Health Dept.

w/ English subtitles


 
 
 
 


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  #2435233 9-Mar-2020 17:34
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Jimmy Kimmel and Guillermo Learn How to Wash Their Hands


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  #2435236 9-Mar-2020 17:47
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Coronavirus: Don't use vodka to sanitise hands

BBC News

A rush on hand sanitiser to protect against the coronavirus has seen homemade versions spring up, including one based on a handmade vodka.

But vodka maker Tito's quickly shot down a tweet suggesting the use of its spirits is strong enough for that purpose.

Some people are combining rubbing alcohol and aloe for a sanitiser.

That can work as long as the version is at least 60% alcohol.

But posts on social media that suggested Texas-based Tito's Handmade Vodka could be used instead saw the company cite the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to quickly refute the idea.

"Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol," Tito's tweeted in reply on Thursday. "Tito's Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC."
...

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  #2435237 9-Mar-2020 17:51
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Sidestep:

afe66: You cant just turn HDU and Coronary Care Units into Intensive care units because the key thing ICU can do is ventilate patients.

Respiratory support in hdu and ccu involved non ventilatory support which are specifically excluded in care of Corvid patients as they actively spread virus particles.

The metric to think about is the number operating theatres as if you cancelled all elective surgery, the theatres can be turned into icu beds as have all gas supplies, power supplies and use the anaesthetic machines as ventilators.

How can you force private hospitals to hand over their operating theatres and gear to make icu beds...


That's interesting. Good to know. I saw a couple of studies that seemed to say at least some HDU beds in NZ were ventilated and could double as ICU beds.
Can't find them now but here's an older study that mentions it.


I'm intrigued by the idea of forcing private hospitals to open up ICU beds and theatres. 
Surely they'd be flat out with their own (paying) patients?



Imagine the pr nightmare for private hospitals when all public elective surgery is canned with theatres being turned into icu beds but private hospitals are running operating theatres to do boob jobs and herniae.

However if the situation is so dire that theatres are being repurposed into icu beds, the number is sick staff at doctor and nurse level would most likely stop private surgery anyway..

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  #2435245 9-Mar-2020 18:06
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mattwnz:

 

An NZ expert is saying a community outbreak is now likely in NZ https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120117404/coronavirus-community-outbreak-a-matter-of-time-expert-says . This is despite the Ministry of health saying it is unlikely, likewise the same expert saying an outbreak was unlikely just a few weeks ago https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/siouxsie-wiles-on-why-we-are-unlikely-to-see-a-coronavirus-outbreak-in-new-zealand/  . I wonder what has changed, maybe what is going on in Europe and Italy?

 

 

Ill read later, but if you look at Italy (I'll ignore Iran) probably 8000 cases now, and if you deduct the imported cases, its probably 95% community outbreak. Italy do socialise a lot and 60 million in a NZ sized country is intensive, but it shows the potential. Europe has open borders, and the Italians got wind of the 25% aka 16 million lockdown, so they fled, as did those in Hubei. They thought they were fleeing the virus but they were actually transporting it. Not to be taken lightly. I;d much rather be proven wrong here in NZ but you can't flee the numbers. Initially I was in the she'll be right brigade.


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  #2435248 9-Mar-2020 18:10
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Fred99:

 

Two of the three latest cases detected in Australia are returnees from trips to the USA. 

 

They might have been infected on the flights, or they might have been infected in the US. I'm leaning towards them being infected in the US, the onset of symptoms (day after and a couple of days after) is probably too short for infection on the plane.  I'd add the USA to the list of places where the number of confirmed cases are probably the tip of an iceberg - not helped by the administration's lack of testing and failure to secure testing kits from WHO when they realised that their CDC had failed to make reliable kits.

 

Trump had better hope that tomorrow brings better news, US stock index futures trading has hit the rocks (5% limits kicked in) and currently bouncing around just off the bottom. Any minute I'd expect a barrage of creative "good news" to emanate from the administration - even if the boss is currently snoring in his gold-plated bed after a hard day golfing.  I assume he's been golfing and now asleep - he hasn't been abusing anyone on Twitter for 12 hours.

 

 

Its very fair to criticise China's info. But imagine China containing it admirably (as "appears" to be the case) and the world leader of the country of peace, prosperity and success becomes the worst in the world. I can easily see it becoming the worst. 300 Million, worst administration, and that word "exponential" . That is a lethal combo.


 
 
 
 


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  #2435251 9-Mar-2020 18:15
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Sidestep:

 

 

 

I doubt anyone has confidence that Trump can deal with this. 
He's been a useful clown with his tax breaks for the rich, and letting the markets regulate themselves, but now leadership is needed, nope.

The unprecedented visible, real-time spread of this virus is undoubtedly going to have an economic impact … it's already happening - that’s going to be felt across the world.

 

The potential economic outcomes of this will be partly what's influencing NZ's quarantine and travel policies - that are causing so much discussion here.
There's a reason they're not immediately 'shutting the borders' there's a huge risk to the economy if thy get it wrong.

 

The immediate impact on tourism, the energy sector and more delayed impacts on the "supply chain” of any business that was integrated with Chinese producers or consumers is likely just the beginning. I reckon there's a risk this'll tip large parts of the world into recession.

 

If virus spreads in other countries as it's done in Italy - and it's likely to - especially in the US, another interest cut there is likely. Trump seems to harp on about the Fed lowering interest rates as a panacea for everything..
Other parts of the world will try to follow suit - but the whole world economy's quite brittle. In Europe and Japan, monetary policy is virtually out of out of options.

Most real rate cuts have already happened - via the declines in bond and note yields which is what equities and most other assets are priced from - and more effective policy steps than blanket rate cuts will have to be taken - to provide entities facing cash crunches with liquidity. No one wants a run on the banks..
In Europe, it'll be a big ask for stimulating policies to take hold in the current political environment.
Italy's, Spain's and other economies are already under stress - this won't be at all good for them unless it's somehow stopped in it's tracks.

 

Despite central banks cutting rates, easier monetary policy and increased liquidity won't lead to an immediate material pickup in buying and economic activity, though it'll possibly bump risky asset prices. The current climate of fear isn't conducive to anyone rushing out and spending - on anything.
It's quite likely things will get worse before they get better, maybe several quarters - 3-6 months based on the effects of the most recent epidemics.

 

The 97% of us that survive this will still want to have jobs (and in stressed European economies, pensions, healthcare, housing). I hope they (world governments) can manage that.
Not trying to be the Prophet of Doom here - but it's something the Government's probably keeping in mind.

 

 

Im still stuck between low and poor Govt action here, but Im not oblivious to the outcome if its "not too bad" here. China is now getting back to work. This while thing stated out as just a China issue. Now its possibly going to be a US/Europe issue as China is merrily producing at full capacity soon. Already they are sending test gear elsewhere, and probably looking at blocking imported infected cases, as the rest of us are. 

 

Its possibly ironic the China (their production getting back on track) will help reduce the economic downside.


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  #2435252 9-Mar-2020 18:17
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wellygary:

 

Fred99:

 

Trump had better hope that tomorrow brings better news, US stock index futures trading has hit the rocks (5% limits kicked in) and currently bouncing around just off the bottom. Any minute I'd expect a barrage of creative "good news" to emanate from the administration - even if the boss is currently snoring in his gold-plated bed after a hard day golfing.  I assume he's been golfing and now asleep - he hasn't been abusing anyone on Twitter for 12 hours.

 

 

This is all being driven by Oil falling out of bed on the spat between Russia and Saudi,

 

both Brent and WTI are currently down 30% on the day, (on top of the 10% on Friday) - European trading will be fun to watch tonight....

 

In the long term lower oil prices are supportive of the global economy, but you don't want to fall like this... It seriously scares the horses...

 

 

And its possibly a help to the affected global economy. As I just mentioned, if China can get back to work, and oil prices drop, that's a huge help. 


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  #2435253 9-Mar-2020 18:21
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Scott3:

 

Hopefully we can balance complacency and panic.

 

 

Great post. It can/might be ok here, but lets be prepared. Italy, which is not an Iran, is blowing out. China had it for 4 months, italy in 4 months is unthinkable.


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  #2435257 9-Mar-2020 18:25
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afe66:

Imagine the pr nightmare for private hospitals when all public elective surgery is canned with theatres being turned into icu beds but private hospitals are running operating theatres to do boob jobs and herniae.

However if the situation is so dire that theatres are being repurposed into icu beds, the number is sick staff at doctor and nurse level would most likely stop private surgery anyway..

 

I can't see that. Private isn't really private. If you have an op due under public, as I do for a double hernia next month, it can be private. Mine is being done by a private surgeon, at a private hospital, Govt health pays the bill. If its done in public that is the Govt bill anyway. if this blew out, private people and hospitals would be part of the care, and paid for by Govt.


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  #2435259 9-Mar-2020 18:31
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For Germany:

 

23/2/20 12:56 - 6 confirmed cases, 0 fatality.

 

8/3/20 10:51 - 847 confirmed cases, 0 fatality.

 

You can't stop it but the goal is to slow down the infection rate to prevent peaks in the health system by extending the timeline.

 

Again, nothing to panic - just prepare to stay at home during the recovery period in case of an infection. :-)





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  #2435260 9-Mar-2020 18:34
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Tinkerisk:

 

Again, nothing to panic - just prepare to stay at home during the recovery period in case of an infection. :-)

 

 

If you are on an hourly wage or unable to use leave to cover 10 working days of absence then there is little you can do to prepare. 


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  #2435267 9-Mar-2020 18:56
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GV27:

 

Tinkerisk:

 

Again, nothing to panic - just prepare to stay at home during the recovery period in case of an infection. :-)

 

 

If you are on an hourly wage or unable to use leave to cover 10 working days of absence then there is little you can do to prepare. 

 

 

That's up to the employers and the Govt to deal with.  We can't have technicalities causing or assisting outbreaks. otherwise it will drag on and on. Its a very valid point, but the priority is containment, not leave days


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  #2435270 9-Mar-2020 19:01
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kingdragonfly: Worried about a toilet paper shortage?

One, be thankful we don't have PM like Aussie Scott Morrison freaking out the nation, and causing a toilet paper brawl.

and two, here's you chance to try a bidet. I don't have one, but I've always wanted a hi-tech Japanese style tiolet.

Bidets ranges in price from $10 to $10,000

 

Our household has been using the cheaper option of a hose bidet, like they use throughout Asia, for well on 25 years. We then use 2 or 3 segments of toilet paper to pat dry. It then also doubles as a skid mark or splatter cleaner as well, as opposed to the toilet brush that is one of the worst harbinger of germs in that little room. Best hygienic thing ever.





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