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  #2435271 9-Mar-2020 19:06
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Markets down 5%, some more, some less, thats in a day. Oil down 26-28%


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  #2435272 9-Mar-2020 19:10
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tdgeek: Italy had


2 on 21 Jan


470 on 26 Feb, about a month later


7375 on 8 March, about 12 days later



That's exponential for ya.

The trick is to decide when you go from 1 to 2 to 5 whether you're on an exponential path (and should take drastic measures while it's still relatively cheap and easy) or just have an aberrant spike.

The key thing seems to me to be that the source of each of those 5 infections has been identified... it's not some random unknown person out in the community.

 
 
 
 


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  #2435273 9-Mar-2020 19:10
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Tinkerisk:

 

For Germany:

 

23/2/20 12:56 - 6 confirmed cases, 0 fatality.

 

8/3/20 10:51 - 847 confirmed cases, 0 fatality.

 

You can't stop it but the goal is to slow down the infection rate to prevent peaks in the health system by extending the timeline.

 

Again, nothing to panic - just prepare to stay at home during the recovery period in case of an infection. :-)

 

 

Is there any link to explain why Germany is such an outlier?

 

There's two critical cases, for all I know they could be hooked up to ECMO machines and dialysis at the same time, and have no chance of recovery - but even if they die, the stats from Germany are still an outlier.  (BTW, cases in Germany are now 1040).


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  #2435280 9-Mar-2020 19:17
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Tinkerisk:

 

For Germany:

 

23/2/20 12:56 - 6 confirmed cases, 0 fatality.

 

8/3/20 10:51 - 847 confirmed cases, 0 fatality.

 

You can't stop it but the goal is to slow down the infection rate to prevent peaks in the health system by extending the timeline.

 

Again, nothing to panic - just prepare to stay at home during the recovery period in case of an infection. :-)

 

 

 

 

Germany is at over 1000 today, but only  18 recovered. So it is probably too early to know how many deaths there will be from that number, as it has only risen dramatically over the last week or so. The number to look at is hospital admissions. It looks like it has a foot hold over there. We don't want community transmission in NZ, as it will then cause a lot of problems in terms of how people live their life. NZ is very different to Germany, and we can close our borders easily.


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  #2435281 9-Mar-2020 19:20
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tdgeek:

 

Markets down 5%, some more, some less, thats in a day. Oil down 26-28%

 

 

BNZ has reported that a recession is likely in NZ as a result of this, so it is no surprise. I wonder if it will do anything to house prices, time will tell.


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  #2435282 9-Mar-2020 19:21
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Fred99:

 

Is there any link to explain why Germany is such an outlier?

 

 

Nope, not at the time - but you are right.

 

 

 

 

There's two critical cases, for all I know they could be hooked up to ECMO machines and dialysis at the same time, and have no chance of recovery - but even if they die, the stats from Germany are still an outlier.

 

 

To estimate this, you need to know the medical (pre-)history and their age. The permanent risk (in general for such kind of infections) for 80+ is still 15%.

 

 

 

(BTW, cases in Germany are now 1040) - Maybe, I reported the OFFICIAL confirmed cases at that time not any newspaper numbers.

 

 





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  #2435283 9-Mar-2020 19:23
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Interesting documentary series on Netflix called Pandemic. Apparently made last year when measles was the big threat... I.e. before covid19. It looks at flu, measles, Ebola, anti-vaxxers. Also pandemic prevention and other stuff. Notably it more or less predicted China as a source, and stated that respiratory diseases are the most difficult to control. And covered the attempt to create a universal flu vaccine (done) that would work with only a few injections (not so much). And migrating ducks role in spreading bird flu to farmed bird populations.
Recommended!

 
 
 
 


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  #2435284 9-Mar-2020 19:23
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frankv:
tdgeek: Italy had

 

2 on 21 Jan

 

 

 

470 on 26 Feb, about a month later

 

 

 

7375 on 8 March, about 12 days later

 



That's exponential for ya.

The trick is to decide when you go from 1 to 2 to 5 whether you're on an exponential path (and should take drastic measures while it's still relatively cheap and easy) or just have an aberrant spike.

The key thing seems to me to be that the source of each of those 5 infections has been identified... it's not some random unknown person out in the community.

 

Yes, fully agree. We have 5. But do we have 5? We are late, and small, we could easily have 20, or 0. I guess my issue is have we identified all contact from these 3? There was a list, some had low numbers of contacts some more. And with the numbers coming into NZ, are there any more Not trying to be negative, but we would be quite lucky if with all of the incoming flights we had 2 infections. My point with my post was Italy had 2. As did Japan, and South Korea.

 

Watching CNN, they feel one came in in North Japan, and it grew from there. They feel that in Japan, young adults are often asymptomatic, and also are not worried about it. Also thats its a problem there to state the Govt isnt doing enough. So no idea if what I just said carries any weight.


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  #2435345 9-Mar-2020 19:32
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mattwnz:

 

Germany is at over 1000 today, but only  18 recovered. So it is probably too early to know how many deaths there will be from that number, as it has only risen dramatically over the last week or so.

 

 

That's the way statistics works - it's exponential. Nothing special.

 

 

 

* The number to look at is hospital admissions. *

 

Not really, the message at the time is, stay at home on first indication and phone for advise!

 

Do not go to the doctor or hospital unless it is advised by the medical service visiting you at home for investigation.

 

Only confirmed CRITICAL cases will be transferred to the hospital. 





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  #2435346 9-Mar-2020 19:34
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frankv: Interesting documentary series on Netflix called Pandemic. Apparently made last year when measles was the big threat... I.e. before covid19. It looks at flu, measles, Ebola, anti-vaxxers. Also pandemic prevention and other stuff. Notably it more or less predicted China as a source, and stated that respiratory diseases are the most difficult to control. And covered the attempt to create a universal flu vaccine (done) that would work with only a few injections (not so much). And migrating ducks role in spreading bird flu to farmed bird populations.
Recommended!


There's an interesting movies on Google Play called Contagion that just about parallels the Coronavirus. It was made in 2011.




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  #2435351 9-Mar-2020 19:43
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mattwnz:

 

tdgeek:

 

Markets down 5%, some more, some less, thats in a day. Oil down 26-28%

 

 

BNZ has reported that a recession is likely in NZ as a result of this, so it is no surprise. I wonder if it will do anything to house prices, time will tell.

 

 

No, not in my opinion.  A recession isnt a crash, its a slowdown or reduction in the economy. if some lose their jobs, the Govt will provide a benefit. Those that dont lose their job will continue on. Robertson has met with banks, there are measures to help cashflow for the masses. A lot of people will remain employed, remain house hunting, and they may pickup houses which could be a little cheaper. China is getting back to production, that will feed supplies to NZ so that businesses can also get back to production and added value, or sell Chinese goods, or export there. I see it as a major glitch, and that China is getting back to work is the key. 

 

Thats today, next week I might be the Oracle, or 100% wrong. Plummeting oil prices is a big help too. 


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  #2435366 9-Mar-2020 20:31
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tdgeek:

 

mattwnz:

 

BNZ has reported that a recession is likely in NZ as a result of this, so it is no surprise. I wonder if it will do anything to house prices, time will tell.

 

 

No, not in my opinion.  A recession isnt a crash, its a slowdown or reduction in the economy. if some lose their jobs, the Govt will provide a benefit. Those that dont lose their job will continue on. Robertson has met with banks, there are measures to help cashflow for the masses. A lot of people will remain employed, remain house hunting, and they may pickup houses which could be a little cheaper. China is getting back to production, that will feed supplies to NZ so that businesses can also get back to production and added value, or sell Chinese goods, or export there. I see it as a major glitch, and that China is getting back to work is the key. 

 

Thats today, next week I might be the Oracle, or 100% wrong. Plummeting oil prices is a big help too. 

 

 

MIT also gave a 70% chance of a recession in the next 6 months before Covid 19 was making big headlines. But I guess internet people know more than MIT and BNZ? :P


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  #2435370 9-Mar-2020 20:48
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aspett:

 

MIT also gave a 70% chance of a recession in the next 6 months before Covid 19 was making big headlines. But I guess internet people know more than MIT and BNZ? :P

 

 

A couple of old Chinese proverbs:

 

"It's not the size of the pin - it's the size of the bubble".

 

"Don't empty your quiver until you see the whites of your enemy's eyes"

 

OK, they aren't Chinese proverbs any more than the old curse "may you live in interesting times".

 

I expect I'm going to lose a bundle of paper money I never really had tomorrow, US stock futures are flatlined at the low limit - and that's despite signals the Federal Reserve will drop rates 75 or 100 points.  There'll be someone about to say "never a better time to buy".  I'll pass on that, but thanks anyway.




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  #2435371 9-Mar-2020 20:49
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aspett:

 

MIT also gave a 70% chance of a recession in the next 6 months before Covid 19 was making big headlines. But I guess internet people know more than MIT and BNZ? :P

 

 

economists have been predicting a house price crash since 2003. i know cause i read every forecast since then. i have to say though, eventually they would be correct. i don't know why they exist.





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2435375 9-Mar-2020 20:56
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frankv: Interesting documentary series on Netflix called Pandemic. Apparently made last year when measles was the big threat... I.e. before covid19. It looks at flu, measles, Ebola, anti-vaxxers. Also pandemic prevention and other stuff. Notably it more or less predicted China as a source, and stated that respiratory diseases are the most difficult to control. And covered the attempt to create a universal flu vaccine (done) that would work with only a few injections (not so much). And migrating ducks role in spreading bird flu to farmed bird populations.
Recommended!

 

Measles is still a big threat!


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