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  #2410487 31-Jan-2020 07:14
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Fred99:

 

gzt:
Fred99: When I read that - it strengthened my opinion that NZ should consider quarantining itself (by air), as failures of past attempts to quarantine (including hastening spread as infectious people escape the quarantine and spread it to unaffected populations) can't happen when we're on islands that don't (yet) have an outbreak.

Stopping all international air travel or stopping all inbound passenger air travel to NZ? You really think it's time to do that?

 

I think it's time to start thinking about it seriously.

 

Guidelines from WHO will take into account the negative consequences of quarantine balanced against - and contributing to - low probability of it being effective.

 

As a remote island nation, we're one of the few places where it might work.  Even if it's only a delay from the inevitable - then more time will mean more will be known about the disease, diagnosis, possible treatments, etc.  Or maybe by that time it will have become less of a threat than it appears to be now.

 

 

I agree. If we lock our borders, the chances of infection are very very low. Maybe the Estonian who landed here, who was in Morocco and had coffee with a South African who just returned form China. :-) The world is a small place, of those that want to travel here from China or had been there since Xmas, there probably arent many reasons why that have to fly here right now. And rush to find some way of testing. Set up a 14 day quarantine for those that must travel here.

 

It buys time. If the virus was testable for a non symptom carrier, then thats an easy solution, but thats not the case yet.


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  #2410489 31-Jan-2020 07:45
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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047636/doctors-warn-china-coronavirus-carriers-may-show-no-symptoms

 

An example of an infected family where the 10yo boy was a carrier and has the virus but presents no symptoms, yet a CAT scan showed he is infected. He only got CAT scanned due to the insistence of the parents. So, he has no symptoms, normal tests show he is not infected, off to school he goes, an infected carrier. Six of those family members are infected


 
 
 
 


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  #2410494 31-Jan-2020 08:04
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frankv:

 

Sidestep:

 

This website from John Hopkins University seems to provide an accurate and up to date picture - using an interactive map to visualise the spread and infection rate of the virus.

 

The last couple of points on the graph on the left indicate that the rate of increase in China is slowing, I guess because of their quarantine and other control measures.

 

 

Or because they've plotted an interim number (8235) for the last point. The daily report from the National Health Committee with the tally to 30/1/20 hasn't been published yet.

 

If the number of new cases reported slows, then it could be for various reasons - the rate of confirmations is subject to how many tests they can carry out.  They have 82,000 people tracked and "under medical observation".

 

The control measures should work - whether that's going to be enough can't be known yet.


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  #2410517 31-Jan-2020 08:48
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  #2410524 31-Jan-2020 09:17
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I'm a little surprised this didn't get more coverage, assuming that the numbers are correct

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/01/27/five-million-residents-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-lockdown-mayor-reports/amp/

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  #2410527 31-Jan-2020 09:26
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  #2410530 31-Jan-2020 09:42
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WyleECoyoteNZ: I'm a little surprised this didn't get more coverage, assuming that the numbers are correct

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/01/27/five-million-residents-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-lockdown-mayor-reports/amp/

 

Population is 11M,  5 left leaving 9 behind, something is wrong.


 
 
 
 




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  #2410538 31-Jan-2020 09:55
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it's now a global emergency has been declared





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2410589 31-Jan-2020 10:54
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Yeah, WHO was just waiting for a confirmed person-to-person infection outside of China, which it also got overnight as there was such an infection in the US. This is because that's stated as one of their 'main contributory factors' for the declaration of such an emergency.

 

No doubt it was under extreme pressure not to call an emergency from China (and frankly probably all those with an economic interest in trading with China).

 

So god damned scary that the almighty dollar factors ahead of public safety, not only for national governments, but also the WHO, an organisation that's supposed to be laser focused on worldwide public health.

 

In my opinion they've left it too late and the horse bolted days ago.

 

I fully expect that most countries in the world have infections by now whether declared or confirmed or not - and it's really interesting that the discourse, even from our own health department is now on whether there's an 'outbreak' here rather than single infections... 


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  #2410591 31-Jan-2020 10:54
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"

 

First, there is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. WHO doesn’t recommend limiting trade and movement.

 

We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering which measures to take.

 

Second, we must support countries with weaker health systems.

 

Third, accelerate the development of vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics.

 

Fourth, combat the spread of rumours and misinformation.

 

Fifth, review preparedness plans, identify gaps and evaluate the resources needed to identify, isolate and care for cases, and prevent transmission.

 

Sixth, share data, knowledge and experience with WHO and the world.

 

And seventh, the only way we will defeat this outbreak is for all countries to work together in a spirit of solidarity and cooperation. We are all in this together, and we can only stop it together.

 

This is the time for facts, not fear.

 

This is the time for science, not rumours.

 

This is the time for solidarity, not stigma."





Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

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  #2410631 31-Jan-2020 11:47
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https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/119170983/coronavirus-declared-a-global-emergency

 

Stuffs article on the WHO declaration. Apparently NZ's alert level is keep it out, so i agree with the National party Health guy that the Government isn't doing enough or soon enough. 8 flights a day arrive here from China and no issue. Other countries have bans. Reading the Wiki page on SARS gives a literally day by day account of how it grew. 8000 reported cases, about 800 deaths. That took 8 months 1 Nov 2002 to 31 July 2003

 

The current epidemic is perhaps 6 weeks old? 8000 cases.

 

Sobering


dt

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  #2410638 31-Jan-2020 11:52
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wow so information has just been released that it only takes 15 minutes of face to face conversation or 2 hours of close proximity for the virus to spread from human to human... 

 

I guess we can expect an explosion of cases within the next 2 weeks outside of China.. 


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  #2410643 31-Jan-2020 12:00
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dt:

 

wow so information has just been released that it only takes 15 minutes of face to face conversation or 2 hours of close proximity for the virus to spread from human to human... 

 

I guess we can expect an explosion of cases within the next 2 weeks outside of China.. 

 

 

Ive read that expelling air as we breathe has a range of about 2 metres, that it can stay alive for a few hours. From memory I read that. hard to know the real facts or the real numbers, but it has surpassed 8 months of SARS infections in 6 or 7 weeks


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  #2410684 31-Jan-2020 12:13
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Beccara:

 

First, there is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. WHO doesn’t recommend limiting trade and movement.

 

 

Yet also says: "In many ways, China is actually setting a new standard for outbreak response. It’s not an exaggeration."

 

When one of the first things China did in attempt to limit the spread was to limit movement internally.


dt

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  #2410687 31-Jan-2020 12:20
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tdgeek:

 

Ive read that expelling air as we breathe has a range of about 2 metres, that it can stay alive for a few hours. From memory I read that. hard to know the real facts or the real numbers, but it has surpassed 8 months of SARS infections in 6 or 7 weeks

 

 

 

 

Scary to think how easily it can be transmitted and how long a flight from China to AU/NZ is in such a confined space.. 


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