2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2632997 10-Jan-2021 10:28

Scott3:

Vaccines on the table arn't really good enough to replace managed isolation. Nothing on the table is better than 95% effective at the moment.

We pritty much need to keep the border settings to the bulk (85% - 95%) of the NZ population is vaccinated, to achieve heard immunity. (Will be hard to achieve given no vaccines are approved for kids under 16.)

The above is optimistically assuming vaccinated people don't just become symptom free spreaders, something that has not been proven.

Yes, its not proven, but literally everything about the vaccines are unproven. But the bottom line is border control is here for a long long time.

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#2633026 10-Jan-2021 11:34

Ge0rge: over 1600 [NZDF personnel] are already doing 6 weeks on, 6 weeks off.

And during their six weeks on, they are living in another MIQ-type location - although I understand not quite the 4-star standard I am enjoying a.t.m.* - and are not allowed to mix and mingle outside their bubbles, AND get a Covid test stick shoved up their nose every week. I have seen guys & gals from all three services doing the mahi, always polite, always helpful. Judging from their badges, the majority are not Medics, just ordinary other ranks and NCOs from every trade and specialisation, and a sprinkling of officers. Absolutely positively definitely not what they signed up for, but "orders are orders". Bloody fine work, and it must have stretched & bent all sorts of schedules, plans and opportunities completely out of shape.

* Day Twelve, I am glad to say. Home on Wednesday! :D

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#2633030 10-Jan-2021 11:45

tdgeek:

Yes, its not proven, but literally everything about the vaccines are unproven.

The reality is entirely the opposite.

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#2633032 10-Jan-2021 11:53

Scott3:

Vaccines on the table arn't really good enough to replace managed isolation. Nothing on the table is better than 95% effective at the moment.

We pritty much need to keep the border settings to the bulk (85% - 95%) of the NZ population is vaccinated, to achieve heard immunity. (Will be hard to achieve given no vaccines are approved for kids under 16.)

The above is optimistically assuming vaccinated people don't just become symptom free spreaders, something that has not been proven.

Effectiveness is NOT efficacy. They mean completely different things. Current vaccines have delivered up to 95% efficacy in testing, which is truly a remarkable figure for any vaccine.

We're going to know pretty quickly whether virus shedding will continue once vaccinated, and if it does whether the viral load is the same or significantly reduced. Even if some shedding does still occur with some vaccines (not all vaccines may work the same in this respect) if that viral load was significantly lower is will reduce spread.

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#2633080 10-Jan-2021 13:38

sbiddle:

tdgeek:

Yes, its not proven, but literally everything about the vaccines are unproven.

The reality is entirely the opposite.

Is it?

You take the required doses a certain time apart. OR its ok to have a reduced dose further part. Which is it? Depends what you read

You may carry and infect others if you are already vaccinated as you are protected from getting ill. Or not?

How long does it last?

One says the reduced dose reduce 95% to 90%, another says 95% to 50%, which is it?

Ive read all these and they aren't from journo's they are from medical people.

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#2633083 10-Jan-2021 13:43

tdgeek:

You take the required doses a certain time apart. OR its ok to have a reduced dose further part. Which is it? Depends what you read

You may carry and infect others if you are already vaccinated as you are protected from getting ill. Or not?

How long does it last?

One says the reduced dose reduce 95% to 90%, another says 95% to 50%, which is it?

Ive read all these and they aren't from journo's they are from medical people.

From the number of studies I've read in recent months I've read pretty good research into most of those questions with the exception of virus shedding. These vaccines aren't some creation that was just whipped up in record time that we know nothing about, a huge amount is known about them, and it's exciting that we now have a real use for a mRNA based vaccine because the technology truly has the potential to change the world in our lifetimes.

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#2633084 10-Jan-2021 13:50

sbiddle:

From the number of studies I've read in recent months I've read pretty good research into most of those questions with the exception of virus shedding. These vaccines aren't some creation that was just whipped up in record time that we know nothing about, a huge amount is known about them, and it's exciting that we now have a real use for a mRNA based vaccine because the technology truly has the potential to change the world in our lifetimes.

I am not disputing the vaccines and the effort used, and the result they have achieved, not at all. I dont know where "just whipped up" comes from. Im just saying I read from medical sources, variances of the topics I mentioned.

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#2633087 10-Jan-2021 14:00

tdgeek:

sbiddle:

From the number of studies I've read in recent months I've read pretty good research into most of those questions with the exception of virus shedding. These vaccines aren't some creation that was just whipped up in record time that we know nothing about, a huge amount is known about them, and it's exciting that we now have a real use for a mRNA based vaccine because the technology truly has the potential to change the world in our lifetimes.

I am not disputing the vaccines and the effort used, and the result they have achieved, not at all. I dont know where "just whipped up" comes from. Im just saying I read from medical sources, variances of the topics I mentioned.

There are plenty of people who believe the vaccine is unsafe or dangerous, purely on the basis it was developed so quickly. It is amazing that we actually had multiple vaccines that we injected into people literally 70ish days after the full RNA sequence was made public, but that's because all the research into vaccines in recent years.

While vaccines have taken a lot longer to develop in the past, much of that has simply come down to $$$, and there was no shortage of that this time.

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#2633089 10-Jan-2021 14:08

sbiddle:

There are plenty of people who believe the vaccine is unsafe or dangerous, purely on the basis it was developed so quickly. It is amazing that we actually had multiple vaccines that we injected into people literally 70ish days after the full RNA sequence was made public, but that's because all the research into vaccines in recent years.

While vaccines have taken a lot longer to develop in the past, much of that has simply come down to $$$, and there was no shortage of that this time.

I agree fully on those points.

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#2633101 10-Jan-2021 15:08

sbiddle:

There are plenty of people who believe the vaccine is unsafe or dangerous, purely on the basis it was developed so quickly. It is amazing that we actually had multiple vaccines that we injected into people literally 70ish days after the full RNA sequence was made public, but that's because all the research into vaccines in recent years.

While vaccines have taken a lot longer to develop in the past, much of that has simply come down to $$$, and there was no shortage of that this time.

I've heard this likened to releasing a new year's model of car - all of the time-consuming safety checks have been carried out on the previous model, and small changes such as a different bonnet, grille, and door trim do not mean the car has to go back to step 1 for crash testing, etc.

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#2633105 10-Jan-2021 15:13

Gurezaemon:

sbiddle:

There are plenty of people who believe the vaccine is unsafe or dangerous, purely on the basis it was developed so quickly. It is amazing that we actually had multiple vaccines that we injected into people literally 70ish days after the full RNA sequence was made public, but that's because all the research into vaccines in recent years.

While vaccines have taken a lot longer to develop in the past, much of that has simply come down to $$$, and there was no shortage of that this time.

I've heard this likened to releasing a new year's model of car - all of the time-consuming safety checks have been carried out on the previous model, and small changes such as a different bonnet, grille, and door trim do not mean the car has to go back to step 1 for crash testing, etc.

And that approach worked well for the B-737 Max !!

Scott3

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#2633112 10-Jan-2021 15:51

tdgeek:

Is it?

You take the required doses a certain time apart. OR its ok to have a reduced dose further part. Which is it? Depends what you read

You may carry and infect others if you are already vaccinated as you are protected from getting ill. Or not?

How long does it last?

One says the reduced dose reduce 95% to 90%, another says 95% to 50%, which is it?

Ive read all these and they aren't from journo's they are from medical people.

The opposite of literally everything about the vaccines being unproven, is that some things are proven.

Phase 3 trail results provide provide evidence (proof) of the safety and efficacy of the vaccine when administered in the way studied.

It is not realistic to expect the stage 3 trials to answer all the above questions. How long it will last will continue to be evaluated, but it is not possible to speed up time to find out. The question about shedding will get answered in due course via a study designed to test that. And there could well be studies to evaluate reduced dosages (but I imagine there is little incentive for the vaccine developers to do this if they have already proven a high efficacy dosage)

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#2633115 10-Jan-2021 16:02

Scott3:

The opposite of literally everything about the vaccines being unproven, is that some things are proven.

Phase 3 trail results provide provide evidence (proof) of the safety and efficacy of the vaccine when administered in the way studied.

It is not realistic to expect the stage 3 trials to answer all the above questions. How long it will last will continue to be evaluated, but it is not possible to speed up time to find out. The question about shedding will get answered in due course via a study designed to test that. And there could well be studies to evaluate reduced dosages (but I imagine there is little incentive for the vaccine developers to do this if they have already proven a high efficacy dosage)

The opposite is that literally everything has been proven.

They say efficacy is 95% thats awesome. Its been said that a reduced dose drops it to 90% but Ive read its 50%, thats my issue. Its been a great effort, but we dont yet know the answer to many key questions. Effectiveness will be less and thats fine. Efficacy is the results from trials vs placebo's, effectiveness is real world. Dont get me wrong its a huge gain for current humanity, but it will be a good while after vaccination before we know enough to disband MIQ and travel freely, yet the media states yay 2020 is over. It's not. Maybe end of the year we can disband MIQ and travel freely

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#2633194 10-Jan-2021 18:25

cshwone:

And that approach worked well for the B-737 Max !!

Dumb comparison. The Max had new technology and Boeing hid the problems. That is why they are having to pay $3 billion.

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cshwone

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#2633311 11-Jan-2021 05:47

Rikkitic:

cshwone:

And that approach worked well for the B-737 Max !!

Dumb comparison. The Max had new technology and Boeing hid the problems. That is why they are having to pay $3 billion.

Not really that dumb. Boeing had long made significant changes to their 737's as the product line developed but hung on to the grandfather rights from the initial certification by the FAA to avoid the full certification process being redone. They went a few stages too far.

But enough, it's a side track for another thread.

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