2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2638298 19-Jan-2021 16:38

sbiddle:

I'm not sure how you could deem vaccination of border workers to be counter productive - even if vaccination didn't prevent 100% of people from shedding the virus and infecting other people that's still an improvement over 100% of people are infected being capable of infecting others at present.

Consider the event that vaccinated people had the same likelihood of infection & virus shedding characteristics as vaccinated people, But were 95% less likely to show symptoms. In the case a border worker got infected, the likelihood of symptoms being noticed are way lower. That said, the regular testing would still identify the case.

While yet to be proven, it does seem likely that vaccinated people (from at least some of the vaccine candidates) don't pass on the virus. Given widespread vaccination in places like the UK and Israel, it seems likely we will know the answer to this question in a matter of weeks.

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Handle9

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#2638320 19-Jan-2021 17:35

freitasm:

[REDACTED]

Sorry, wrong thread.

Is this in the right thread?

freitasm

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#2638325 19-Jan-2021 17:46

Handle9:

freitasm:

[REDACTED]

Sorry, wrong thread.

Is this in the right thread?

Sorry, absolutely not. I have redacted it in both the original and the quote.

My technology disclosure

mattwnz

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#2638327 19-Jan-2021 17:54

Scott3:

sbiddle:

I'm not sure how you could deem vaccination of border workers to be counter productive - even if vaccination didn't prevent 100% of people from shedding the virus and infecting other people that's still an improvement over 100% of people are infected being capable of infecting others at present.

Consider the event that vaccinated people had the same likelihood of infection & virus shedding characteristics as vaccinated people, But were 95% less likely to show symptoms. In the case a border worker got infected, the likelihood of symptoms being noticed are way lower. That said, the regular testing would still identify the case.

But would it always? I thought testing wasn't that accurate. The whole point of the 14 day quarantine period is to starve the virus of hosts. Testing is only belts to the braces. I would have thought vaccination would stop the virus spreading from people coughing and sneezing etc and expelling droplets, as that is apparently a major way that it transmits. Obviously washing hands is still a major thing people should be doing, which I haven't seen much coverage over recently. It is a bit ironic, because at one time that was seen as the main way to stop it's spread.

IMO it doesn't make much sense that our vaccination program is so far behind other countries. IMO it make sense to vaccinate anyone working around the border now. Doesn't look like we got a good deal on this. See the WHO has called people out on this, and rightly so.

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#2638334 19-Jan-2021 17:57

Just learnt that a family friend died of Covid in the UK. Not elderly, but had had a stroke a few years ago, so not in 100% health, but was living a normal life. Went downhill really fast in just a few days. It is really a terrible illness. Just a reminder for everyone to record where they have been each day, whether that is scanning etc, because our contact tracing relies on people to do this, to avoid a level 3 or 4 lockdown when we get a community case popping up.

tdgeek

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#2638338 19-Jan-2021 18:16

mattwnz:

But would it always? I thought testing wasn't that accurate. The whole point of the 14 day quarantine period is to starve the virus of hosts. Testing is only belts to the braces. I would have thought vaccination would stop the virus spreading from people coughing and sneezing etc and expelling droplets, as that is apparently a major way that it transmits. Obviously washing hands is still a major thing people should be doing, which I haven't seen much coverage over recently. It is a bit ironic, because at one time that was seen as the main way to stop it's spread.

IMO it doesn't make much sense that our vaccination program is so far behind other countries. IMO it make sense to vaccinate anyone working around the border now. Doesn't look like we got a good deal on this. See the WHO has called people out on this, and rightly so.

Others will know more than you or I, but as we have seen, many countries dont have vaccines everywhere. Vaccination is behind, production is doing its best. If supply is an issue the countries like NZ who are Covid free are lower priority, that makes a whole lot of sense. We are getting an early shipment for the border.

We dont yet know how effective the various vaccines are, we only know the efficacy (effectiveness in a controlled trial) We also dont know the shedding factor. As I mentioned in the New Year this is not the year of the vaccine fixing everything. Effectiveness and shedding are yet to be documented. So, borders, quarantine etc will still roll on for a while yet. But, when we get cracking, more will be known. Then the worldwide effort will improve.

Wider question. We have a few different vaccines. Say one or two aren't great and one or two are excellent. Will the designers of said excellent vaccines licence them so the world can focus on just them? Health vs profits I guess, but at some point Vaccine A and B will be great and C and D will be average

tdgeek

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#2638382 19-Jan-2021 18:20

mattwnz:

Just learnt that a family friend died of Covid in the UK. Not elderly, but had had a stroke a few years ago, so not in 100% health, but was living a normal life. Went downhill really fast in just a few days. It is really a terrible illness. Just a reminder for everyone to record where they have been each day, whether that is scanning etc, because our contact tracing relies on people to do this, to avoid a level 3 or 4 lockdown when we get a community case popping up.

Sorry to hear that Matt. It really doesn't help when some people, even older, are fine, you read it in the media, that must make some humans blow it off as a fancy flu.

Didn't link the article I read the other day, that many people who had it and are fine, aren't really that fine. Lingering stuff, quite possibly rest of life ongoing stuff, but often we read about those that got it, are fine. Unbalanced. Causes complacency.

Buster

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#2638386 19-Jan-2021 18:25

So we are getting close to 'a negative test' or no travel, from most parts of the world, to NZ.

Is 'no vaccination' so 'no travel' going to become a thing this year? No doubt there will be various exemptions regardless.

What's happening with our under 16 year age group in NZ. Will they be vaccinated? There's about a million of them.

tdgeek

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#2638389 19-Jan-2021 18:30

Buster:

So we are getting close to 'a negative test' or no travel, from most parts of the world, to NZ.

Is 'no vaccination' so 'no travel' going to become a thing this year? No doubt the will be various exemptions regardless.

What's happening with our under 16 year age group in NZ. Will they be vaccinated? There's about a million of them.

No measure is foolproof. But if all countries had this rule, you will block out some imports of the virus. Slows down the Bell Curve. If any measure had just a measly 10% improvement, run with it, its that bad. Sooner or later masks must be mandatory. But the outcry will be why, vaccine is coming, etc. Go hard, it works.

tdgeek

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#2638390 19-Jan-2021 18:31

Sweden, the poster girl of a free life announces new restrictions.

DS248

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#2638394 19-Jan-2021 18:36

China and WHO acted too slowly to contain Covid-19, according to Swiss-based Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response (co-chaired by none other than Helen Clark)

https://us.cnn.com/2021/01/18/asia/who-covid-review-panel-china-intl-hnk/index.html

(along with many other countries & organisations)

tdgeek

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#2638398 19-Jan-2021 18:44

DS248:

China and WHO acted too slowly to contain Covid-19, according to Swiss-based Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response (co-chaired by none other than Helen Clark)

https://us.cnn.com/2021/01/18/asia/who-covid-review-panel-china-intl-hnk/index.html

(along with many other countries & organisations)

I get that but its unfair to have a retrospective criticism on a virus that was new and everyone was learning on the fly. Its just SARS but less harmful. Imagine if WHO advised in January to go hard on lockdown? Laughed out of court. It would have worked. NZ went early, but one party said they would have gone earlier then two weeks later its too much. What is needed is to evaluate what we know now, so when this appears again, we are better prepared. Maybe fire the WHO people and hire the Sweden people? Another fail. UK is an old nation, hire them, another fail.

Bout time to get real and focus on an overall learning, not the blame game.

Eva888

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#2638427 19-Jan-2021 20:27

mattwnz:
Just learnt that a family friend died of Covid in the UK. Not elderly, but had had a stroke a few years ago, so not in 100% health, but was living a normal life. Went downhill really fast in just a few days. It is really a terrible illness. Just a reminder for everyone to record where they have been each day, whether that is scanning etc, because our contact tracing relies on people to do this, to avoid a level 3 or 4 lockdown when we get a community case popping up.

Just spoke on skype to a friend in Lebanon where everyone is in lockdown. His daughter in law 42ish and their maid contracted Covid and were told to isolate at home for two weeks and use a separate bathroom to the family until tests were clear. Symptoms were fever and muscle aches and head ache at back of head. Their two children and husband were tested at home by MOH and negative at the time. The husband spent the two weeks looking after the entire family while working from home. The women both recovered and now have tested negative, but the husband has now contracted it. He had a fever of 38 for a few days but he isn’t isolated since the entire house is contaminated. Kids are still clear. Interesting to hear first hand of others experience. Let’s see in future if they relapse or something more develops.

Dratsab

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#2638430 19-Jan-2021 20:41

kingdragonfly: Guitar World: Conspiracy theorists mistake Boss' electric guitar "Metal Zone" distortion pedal schematic for COVID-19 vaccine "5G chip

No mistake. A deliberate attempt at misinformation carried out by some extremely inept people.

Scott3

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#2638489 19-Jan-2021 22:42

Have been doing a little looking at vaccine cost.

Apparently Israel is paying an average of US$47 per person (US$23.5/dose) for the Pfizer, and moderna vaccines in an early access agreement. (Deal also requires them to share lots of data)

US is paying pfizer US$19.5/dose, and moderna US$18/dpose

EU-27 bloc pfizer is paying $14.76/dose, and moderna US$15/dose.

"The BBC reported a day earlier that Pfizer was marketing its vaccines to countries at a price range of $10.65 to $21 per dose, while Moderna’s range was $25 to $37 per dose."

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-be-paying-average-of-47-per-person-for-pfizer-moderna-vaccines/

Frankly all the numbers seem easily affordable for first world countries. pfizier vaccines for 4m people (no body has approved it for under 16's yet) at Israels price would ruin at NZ$280m. Note this is just the cost for the vaccines. Also need to distribute and put it in peoples arms. For comparison the cost of the second lockdown (Auckland level 30 was said to be NZ$440m/week).

Seems good value in that light, other than the ethics of outbidding poorer hard covid-19 hit nations.

Commentators on the above story note that Canada placed their Pfizer order prior to Israel, but Israel is having it delivered first. Obviously either the money of the early access data has allowed them to jump the queue.

mattwnz:

But would it always? I thought testing wasn't that accurate. The whole point of the 14 day quarantine period is to starve the virus of hosts. Testing is only belts to the braces. I would have thought vaccination would stop the virus spreading from people coughing and sneezing etc and expelling droplets, as that is apparently a major way that it transmits. Obviously washing hands is still a major thing people should be doing, which I haven't seen much coverage over recently. It is a bit ironic, because at one time that was seen as the main way to stop it's spread.

IMO it doesn't make much sense that our vaccination program is so far behind other countries. IMO it make sense to vaccinate anyone working around the border now. Doesn't look like we got a good deal on this. See the WHO has called people out on this, and rightly so.

The PCR test we use isn't perfect, but is fairly good. Has false negitive rates of between 2% and 29% according to the below study.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1808.full.pdf

In the event of a false negitive we would end up with a week of potential spread before the next test.

Regarding testing being belts to the braces, the primary line of defense for border staff is infection prevention measures (distancing, PPE etc), this is unchanged.

Even without coughing people can spread the virus. Singing, loud talking etc.

Focus of marketing messages has moved onto contract tracing. While handwashing is helpful, it appears the current thinking is that airborne droplets are also a major transmission path, so contract tracing potential contacts is more valuable than hand washing.

Of course in a global pandemic we should all be following good hygiene measures, and staying home when sick.

Regarding the WHO calling out the vaccine companies for focusing their distribution on rich countries, obviously we are back in the queue a bit. Frankly I don't think it would be a great look if we were competing with say Israel on the vaccination numbers when people are other areas in the world are being crippled by the virus.

News today is the the NZ government is trying to secure an early batch of vaccines for border workers. If successful it will put medsafe in a tough position as they are pressured to do a (non emergency) approval on the vaccine in a hurry.

tdgeek:

Others will know more than you or I, but as we have seen, many countries dont have vaccines everywhere. Vaccination is behind, production is doing its best. If supply is an issue the countries like NZ who are Covid free are lower priority, that makes a whole lot of sense. We are getting an early shipment for the border.

We dont yet know how effective the various vaccines are, we only know the efficacy (effectiveness in a controlled trial) We also dont know the shedding factor. As I mentioned in the New Year this is not the year of the vaccine fixing everything. Effectiveness and shedding are yet to be documented. So, borders, quarantine etc will still roll on for a while yet. But, when we get cracking, more will be known. Then the worldwide effort will improve.

Wider question. We have a few different vaccines. Say one or two aren't great and one or two are excellent. Will the designers of said excellent vaccines licence them so the world can focus on just them? Health vs profits I guess, but at some point Vaccine A and B will be great and C and D will be average

Yeah. It wouldn't be a great look for the vaccine companies to send large numbers of vaccine's here even if we were willing to pay top dollar for easily access.

I assume we will be able to learn from countries that are ahead of us with vaccination (Israel, UK etc) so our timing won't alter when we find the important stuff like shedding out. Currently I think vaccination's are a zero sum game. Any vaccine we use will be taking it away from harder hit area's.

Regarding the different vaccines, we seem to have exactly the situation you describe. Two US vaccines with 94 & 95% efficacy, Sputnik V at 92%, Oxford at 72% (perhaps 90% with 1/2 strength first dose), Sinovac with 52% (according to Brazil trial).

Countries willing to spend big bucks (i.e. Israel) are focusing on the US vaccines, while poor countries like the Philippines have large orders of the less effective sinovac product.

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