2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2644994 1-Feb-2021 08:54

I see 'green zone' flights from NZ to Australia, which resumed yesterday, are being tweaked slightly.

Travellers must have been in NZ for 14 days to be eligible. The change is that the 14 days spent in MIQ will not count. You also need to spend a further 14 days in NZ after completing MIQ.

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tdgeek

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#2644999 1-Feb-2021 09:11

tieke:

I think that giving airtime to the baseless American conspiracy thories that Covid was created in a lab may be well-meaning but is extremely dangerous. As with many other current conspiracy theories it gets repeated so much that people start to believe there is something in it solely due to the number of times it comes up.

The simple answer is that the chance that the virus originated in the WIV lab is vanishingly small, and that I've never seen this claim made by anyone with scientific credibility. Rather than go straight to scientific articles, I found the best-referenced and easiest to understand explanation is this one made by James Duehr PhD, (originally posted on reddit 8 months ago, but the pdf link is easier to read).

I agree. My post ventured a possibility. the other is the expected conspiracy theory based on the usual bias

frankv

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#2645009 1-Feb-2021 09:25

mattwnz:

I think we are very lucky that it is summer, as it seems to spread far easily in winter conditions, we only have to look at the UK, for a good example of that.

It spread pretty well in the Northern summer too.

Batman

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#2645010 1-Feb-2021 09:27

tieke:

I think that giving airtime to the baseless American conspiracy thories that Covid was created in a lab may be well-meaning but is extremely dangerous. As with many other current conspiracy theories it gets repeated so much that people start to believe there is something in it solely due to the number of times it comes up.

The simple answer is that the chance that the virus originated in the WIV lab is vanishingly small, and that I've never seen this claim made by anyone with scientific credibility. Rather than go straight to scientific articles, I found the best-referenced and easiest to understand explanation is this one made by James Duehr PhD, (originally posted on reddit 8 months ago, but the pdf link is easier to read).

great thanks.

i'm reading it now

wellygary

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#2645016 1-Feb-2021 09:39

frankv:

mattwnz:

I think we are very lucky that it is summer, as it seems to spread far easily in winter conditions, we only have to look at the UK, for a good example of that.

It spread pretty well in the Northern summer too.

More indoors time will increase risk, but with hot summers (esp. in places like the US ) comes a desire to head inside for the coolness of A/C, so seasons are not a huge factor,

Have a look at this article on Vermont in the US.. same climate as its neighbouring states but a much different outcome...

Public Health measures matter most...

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/picturesque-and-unpolarised-how-vermont-crushed-the-coronavirus-20210130-p56y0s.html

Batman

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#2645019 1-Feb-2021 09:44

Batman:

tieke:

I think that giving airtime to the baseless American conspiracy thories that Covid was created in a lab may be well-meaning but is extremely dangerous. As with many other current conspiracy theories it gets repeated so much that people start to believe there is something in it solely due to the number of times it comes up.

The simple answer is that the chance that the virus originated in the WIV lab is vanishingly small, and that I've never seen this claim made by anyone with scientific credibility. Rather than go straight to scientific articles, I found the best-referenced and easiest to understand explanation is this one made by James Duehr PhD, (originally posted on reddit 8 months ago, but the pdf link is easier to read).

great thanks.

i'm reading it now

this pdf file answers everything. not sure why it's not more widely known as it's really simple to read and understand.

tieke

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#2645204 1-Feb-2021 12:36

Batman:

tieke:

I think that giving airtime to the baseless American conspiracy thories that Covid was created in a lab may be well-meaning but is extremely dangerous. As with many other current conspiracy theories it gets repeated so much that people start to believe there is something in it solely due to the number of times it comes up.

The simple answer is that the chance that the virus originated in the WIV lab is vanishingly small, and that I've never seen this claim made by anyone with scientific credibility. Rather than go straight to scientific articles, I found the best-referenced and easiest to understand explanation is this one made by James Duehr PhD, (originally posted on reddit 8 months ago, but the pdf link is easier to read).

this pdf file answers everything. not sure why it's not more widely known as it's really simple to read and understand.

I agree. It is quite longe, but I read it when he posted it in May and found it covered a lot of complicated information simply enough for me to understand, while offering useful sources. He covered most of the what-if scenarios I had heard of, and the accompanying discussion supported that.

I can understand why commentators may have initially considered the lab-release possibility, but the fact that all the countering information has been known since then and absolutely no conspiracy-supporting evidence has come to light underlines to me that the well-paid talking heads still pushing the "made in a lab" narrative are deliberately ignoring reality for their own motives - ratings/xenophobia/blame-passing etc.

Oblivian

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#2645484 1-Feb-2021 18:19

Buster:

Travellers must have been in NZ for 14 days to be eligible. The change is that the 14 days spent in MIQ will not count. You also need to spend a further 14 days in NZ after completing MIQ.

Not only precautionary but also seems it adds a layer/takes into account some of the potential Visa hopping/return via NZ travel that they saw occur that was less controlled for tracing. Making it that bit less less attractive/costly.

Oblivian

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#2645579 1-Feb-2021 21:19

Pretty sure Chris Faafoi was clear they could resupply if escorted.

But.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-nz-low-on-fuel-with-storm-on-horizon/XG72PFDOX4TLLQXSZICSMCS2NQ/

Technofreak

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#2645590 1-Feb-2021 22:02

Oblivian:

Pretty sure Chris Faafoi was clear they could resupply if escorted.

But.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-nz-low-on-fuel-with-storm-on-horizon/XG72PFDOX4TLLQXSZICSMCS2NQ/

I'm not sure if entry under any condition was denied or they turned around on their own volition. I'd suggest after confusing debacle they had been through the safest option was to turn around as they probably felt they couldn't trust what our authorities would get up to if they continued to Auckland for re-provisioning.

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Scott3

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#2645600 1-Feb-2021 22:39

Oblivian:

Pretty sure Chris Faafoi was clear they could resupply if escorted.

But.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-nz-low-on-fuel-with-storm-on-horizon/XG72PFDOX4TLLQXSZICSMCS2NQ/

The deceptive articles around this seem to be coming thick and fast.

"Le Laperouse has an economic exemption to come to New Zealand for the cruise season"

This is quite deceptive. I has an economic exemption to enter NZ for Refit or Repair. This an exemption to our border closure basically to let super-yachts come here and keep our marine industry ticking over.

The people behind the venture decided to exploit the above exemption to get the ship into NZ, and once the ship was in they planned to start offering cruises in NZ. Clearly the refit or repair would be enough to cross the threshold of $$ spend, but minor enough that they only allowed a couple of weeks for it.

All good so far. Not the intent of the Refit or Repair exemption, but not breaking any rules either.

Sadly they brought along the entire crew by the sounds of it.

From the INZ operations manual:

"H5.31.1 Marine crew

Marine crew is any person who:

is travelling to New Zealand and arriving by the maritime border as crew; and
is on a ship (either a foreign ship or New Zealand ship) which is permitted to arrive in New Zealand; and
is required for the operation of the ship to travel to New Zealand."

"H5.31.15 Required for the operation of the ship

Marine crew are considered to be required for the operation of the ship if they are working on the ship as crew and are essential for the operation of the ship to travel to New Zealand. This specifically excludes anyone on a ship travelling as a passenger.

Example: a charter yacht normally operates private week long charters in the Pacific islands. The charter normally caters for 10 guests and requires 20 crew members to operate the charter. When no guests are on board and no charters are running, the yacht only requires 6 crew members to operate. For a ship to meet the ‘compelling need to travel to New Zealand’ requirement then only the 6 crew members required to safely operate the ship for it to travel to New Zealand will be allowed."

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/opsmanual/#73789.htm

It seems they either didn't understand the visa rules, or thought the Govt would give them a pass when pressured.

All the arguments around the inability to recruit qualified New Zealanders in a hurry, and stating that they need them to run cruises ignores that the boat was only granted entry to NZ for the purpose of Refit or Repair. And that immigration instructions only allow a delivery crew to enter NZ. Such an argument is an acknowledgement that they don't need the 60+ hotel staff for the delivery of the vessel to NZ.

It is true that most or all the crew have safety training. I don't know much about it, but assume for most it is the "STCW Basic". While it is a good idea for all ship crew to have safety training, it does not mean they all need to be there.

Large container ships often operate with 20 - 30 crew. To say that a little cruise ship will need 90+ for a delivery is taking the piss.

Scott3

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#2645601 1-Feb-2021 22:43

Technofreak:

Oblivian:

Pretty sure Chris Faafoi was clear they could resupply if escorted.

But.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-nz-low-on-fuel-with-storm-on-horizon/XG72PFDOX4TLLQXSZICSMCS2NQ/

I'm not sure if entry under any condition was denied or they turned around on their own volition. I'd suggest after confusing debacle they had been through the safest option was to turn around as they probably felt they couldn't trust what our authorities would get up to if they continued to Auckland for re-provisioning.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-zealand-refuses-entry-cruise-ship-after-only-29-90-crew-granted-visas

"The ship had two options, Faafoi said.

“Those options are that it turn around and refuel and restock somewhere else. If it cannot do that, the ship will be escorted to port. If it docks, the ship and 29 of the 90 crew who do have visas approved for maintenance could stay. The 61 other crew will be required to leave New Zealand as soon as possible.

“The other option is for the ship to dock, refuel and restock, and leave immediately.

“I have been told they will be escorted, but by who we don’t know yet,” Faafoi said.

“If they come to New Zealand, 61 of them will be coming home."

sbiddle

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#2645621 2-Feb-2021 07:25

And as predicted MIQ is just becoming a total lottery. Looking this morning there are now 3 night available until the end of May (1st April, 25th April and 23rd May a matter of days after this became available). It's gonna be a total shambles in the 2nd half of this year as people start traveling again.

Oblivian

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#2645647 2-Feb-2021 08:45

sbiddle:

And as predicted MIQ is just becoming a total lottery. Looking this morning there are now 3 night available until the end of May (1st April, 25th April and 23rd May a matter of days after this became available). It's gonna be a total shambles in the 2nd half of this year as people start traveling again.

Beat me to it.

Was March pre Christmas. Now May

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-nzs-managed-isolation-system-booked-out-until-june/GEFHF7XVNR7BOSU6AMYZWOLMAE/

Still a little odd why the demand has continued. The theory was pre christmas it was returnees wanting to beat Christmas to see family. But there's no sign in decline with the same number of beds since.

People overseas coming to the realisation they should have made an earlier move after brushing it all off as 'be over by march' perhaps.

wellygary

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#2645649 2-Feb-2021 08:51

Oblivian:

Pretty sure Chris Faafoi was clear they could resupply if escorted.

But.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/cruise-ship-denied-entry-to-nz-low-on-fuel-with-storm-on-horizon/XG72PFDOX4TLLQXSZICSMCS2NQ/

According to marine Traffic its currently sitting berthed at the main wharf in Noumea harbour (looks like it arrived at 5:30 last night NZDT),...

I think they might have played up the "low on fuel" "storm approaching" a bit for the kiwi media....

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